So according to the Sindo,its an FF-FG-Green-Grand coalition then ?

Idbatterim

Deleted User wrote: »

I mentioned earlier in the thread that EU officials are meeting this week to try and figure out where they are going to get the €75 billion to plug the hole that Brexit has left. This is bound to affect the remaining contributing countries, of which we are one.

Maybe FG can see the writing on the wall and will decide to stay out and let someone else be the subject of the public's wrath when the cuts happen.

The way I see it , there isn’t going to be enough resources to go around any more , to keep everyone happy and that’s with the booming economy. God knows what happens if that massively slows. Then you’re also going to have to start making decisions you didn’t want to make , weren’t made and hence they have lost seats ... running for the opposition benches makes sense , if you don’t want to govern, thinking instead governing is just floating along on easy street

ArchXStanton

My guess is FF/FG will play it out over the next few days with language like "we're not ruling it out""open to talks" (let's be honest they're already in talks) then we'll hear how they've now listened to the people and are going to act on it and announce a coalition...all nice theatrics...then its business as usual

Deep down both parties know its not what the majority of people want but there's a gravy train to be caught here...

Idbatterim

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Someone has to pay for the forevahomes (it won't be genuine homeless i.e those on the streets getting them either)

Yeah and why should those in social homes be expected to pay more than a token gesture? I mean we could provide far more social and affordable if they did , but why should they contribute anything ? Just let the working poor , hit with a fifty percent marginal rate and all other workers pay for it ...

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

Im not sure if you saw the article in my last post.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fine-gael-tds-revolt-over-grand-coalition-38962295.html

It looks as if FG are pretty sure they want to be in opposition this time around.

Leo's latest statement; 'We will not go into government unless there is no other choice'.

Wriggle room a plenty.

Idbatterim

Idbatterim wrote: »

The way I see it , there isn’t going to be enough resources to go around any more , to keep everyone happy and that’s with the booming economy. God knows what happens if that massively slows. Then you’re also going to have to start making decisions you didn’t want to make , weren’t made and hence they have lost seats ... running for the opposition benches makes sense , if you don’t want to govern, thinking instead governing is just floating along on easy street

yes, sit it out in opposition for a few years until Brexit, and everything that it will bring, levels out.

By that stage FG will start to look attractive again, and the cycle will continue.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Leo's latest statement; 'We will not go into government unless there is no other choice'.

Wriggle room a plenty.

right, I didn't read the whole article. I just noticed that in this morning's Examiner there is an article which states that FG have not ruled out going into gov with FF, according to the FG party chairman.

This is about selling papers now.

my money is on Stormont part 2

Loafing Oaf

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The cynical thing is that FG know exactly where this is all heading. Of course they will cobble together a deal to cling to power of some sort.

That's my assumption too but it's starting to look like there is serious resistance within FG:

A number of Fine Gael TDs have said privately that they would rather see another election than enter into a coalition with Fianna Fáil and other parties.

Odds on another election have come in a bit over the last couple of days

Fann Linn

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Leo's latest statement; 'We will not go into government unless there is no other choice'.

Wriggle room a plenty.

He'd be better off staying out and that would leave FF in a bind. MM would then have to eat humble pie and return to SF or else face another election.

gormdubhgorm

Billcarson wrote: »

Who has the mandate?
Let's remind ourselves again of who the people gave the mandate for Gov't to...
Took me a while, but going by this statistic of the General Election, proves who the people gave a mandate for Government to. Here's a graph you wont find on RTE ��

Finna fail 83 candidates
won 37 seats and 1 automatic seat ,
Not 1 voted in on first count ,
1 voted in on 2nd count
1 voted in on 4th count
2 voted in on 5th count
5 voted in on 6th count
3 voted in on 7th count
11 voted in on 8th count
2 voted in on 9th count
3 voted in on 10th count
5 voted in on 11th count
1 voted in on 12th count
1 voted in on 14th count
2 voted in on 15th count
Leader Michael Martin in on 6th count
20.9% of 1st Preference Vote

Fine geal 82 candidates
Won 35 seats
2 voted in on 1st count
3 voted in on 5th count
3 voted in on 6th count
2 voted in on 7th count
10 voted in on 8th count
3 voted in on 9th count
6 voted in on 10th count
2 voted in on 11th count
1 voted in on 13th count
1 voted in on 14th count
2 voted in on 15th count
Leader Leo varadkar voted in on 5th count
22.2%of 1st Preference Vote

Shin Fein 42 candidates
Won 37 seats
27 voted in on 1st count
3 voted in on 2nd count
3 voted in on 6th count
3 voted in on 8th count
1 voted in on 10th count
Leader Mary Lou McDonald voted in on first count
24.5%of 1st Preference Vote

Sinn Féin won the election

Sinn Féin got the mandate from the people....
No FF/FG Labour Greens ect.......

Only a numbers stat I know but they are thanking their lucky stars for transfers. It's a crying shame

As I already said based on the popular vote alone it is 535000 SF v 1,100,000 labour FG FF who said they did not want SF in government.

That is nearly double!

FrancieBrady

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

That's my assumption too but it's starting to look like there is serious resistance within FG:


Odds on another election have come in a bit over the last couple of days

When they have to face their colleagues in dodgy seats they'll shy away and suck it up. There is not a mission either FF or FG will risk another election.

Grab the popcorn.

gormdubhgorm

ArchXStanton wrote: »

My guess is FF/FG will play it out over the next few days with language like "we're not ruling it out""open to talks" (let's be honest they're already in talks) then we'll hear how they've now listened to the people and are going to act on it and announce a coalition...all nice theatrics...then its business as usual

Deep down both parties know its not what the majority of people want but there's a gravy train to be caught here...

It is nothing to do with a 'gravy train' the moral majority in the ROI would prefer SF NOT be in government (FF FG and Labour) otherwise thier grand coalition of the left with SF would now be a reality.

gormdubhgorm

Billcarson wrote: »

57% didn't vote for ff or fg ,so indeed the electorate did speak.

So why did they not go into government with SF then?
Plus you are deliberately leaving out Labour who said they would not go into government with SF pre election. That is 48% of seats in total. How come SF cannot get the other 52% to support them? It wouldn't be anything to do with the fact that SF don't behave like a normal democratic party would it?

gormdubhgorm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Leo's latest statement; 'We will not go into government unless there is no other choice'.

Wriggle room a plenty.

Sounds like separated parents staying together for the sake of the children.

Ash.J.Williams

I heard the PBP guys talking about all the Left policies blocked by fine gael, one stood out for me and that was regarding Israel. Jaysus lads you'd have think very carefully before you f** with isreel...

gormdubhgorm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

When they have to face their colleagues in dodgy seats they'll shy away and suck it up. There is not a mission either FF or FG will risk another election.

Grab the popcorn.

SF should theoretically clean up if there was another quick election, but I think short term pain for FF FG will lead to long term gain again for them.

Loafing Oaf

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

FG want to be in opposition. You’ll get the odd dissenting voice, but opposition is where the party feel they belong after the election.

The onus is on FF to hold their nose and do a deal with SF. Bring in the Green, the Soc Dems and a few independents to make it all a little more palatable.

Course FG would prefer to be in opposition, but as things stand they would have to refuse to deal with FF and trigger another general election to make that happen, an election that looks like it would produce an SF-led left-wing government. Do FG want to risk getting blamed for that outcome by 'Middle Ireland'?

Can't see FF reversing their position on SF this of another election, would make Martin look ridiculously weak and dithering...

SafeSurfer

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

SF should theoretically clean up if there was another quick election, but I think short term pain for FF FG will lead to long term gain again for them.

Say if there is another election and Sinn Fein win 50 seats. Given the same number of left wing TDs they would still be unable to lead a government, especially given that SF gains would be at the cost of TDs who were only elected due to soaking up Sinn Fein surpluses.

So we would be back to square one.

gormdubhgorm

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Say if there is another election and Sinn Fein win 50 seats. Given the same number of left wing TDs they would still be unable to lead a government, especially given that SF gains would be at the cost of TDs who were only elected due to soaking up Sinn Fein surpluses.

So we would be back to square one.

Didn't think of that would need the Greens PBP and SD to surge on thier own, if they were to have any hope of making a government without FF FG. Not much likelihood of that happening.

Field east

firemansam4 wrote: »

FF, FG and GP got over 50 percent of the vote.

Can you explain how this is a blow for democracy?

Also SF have already tried looking at making up a left wing government but the numbers just are not there for them.

Not so, according to Eoin o Broin on Pat Kenny this morn. He said that they have the numbers- he hates using numbers, prefers to have discussions with like minded parties/ individuals about policy, common ground, etc but not about garnering numbers!!??? When he said a few days ago that it seemed then that a gov cannot be formed without FG or FF. He is now saying that if there was a gov of the left formed that it could do its business because FF or/and FG would BLOCK it. WTF does that mean . How could that happen. If that’s the case the ‘ the’ cohesive left ‘over the last 4 years at least must have had plenty of opportunity to block all gov business - it having a majority of very few seats

Billcarson

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

As I already said based on the popular vote alone it is 535000 SF v 1,100,000 labour FG FF who said they did not want SF in government.

That is nearly double!

Are you trying to tell me a Gov with both ff and fg would be popular amongst the majority of people. ? It makes a mockery of the push for change against ff and fg. Of course it was unlikely to happen forming a gov without either. But the 2 coming together will stick in peoples craw. I'm sure a reasonable number of people who did vote for either party would not be happy with the two going into coalition with each other either. So we would end up with a Gov very few want.
Anyway let them form a coalition, **** it ,they will pay the price down the line.

whatever Gov is formed it will be a new one and should be given a chance though all the same regardless of who it is.

I Am The Law

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

As I already said based on the popular vote alone it is 535000 SF v 1,100,000 labour FG FF who said they did not want SF in government.

That is nearly double!

And yet still not an overall majority, not just for either FG or FF but also FG+FF.

joseywhales

Why are people talking about the popular vote as if it means anything, it doesn't. It's like claiming to win a soccer match because you kicked more balls over the crossbar, different game lads.

bunderoon

Mortelaro wrote: »

Was there not enough support for Sinn Féin and the vote left transfer left movement?

Let's face it the greens are not really a left party,so if this goes ahead,you have s centre led government for the next 5 years
Plenty time to have a few hundred thousand extra houses built,an affordable child car plan in place,taxes reduced and the health service overhauled under Sláinte care

Interesting times indeed...

What's this left / right nonsense?

smurgen

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

As I already said based on the popular vote alone it is 535000 SF v 1,100,000 labour FG FF who said they did not want SF in government.

That is nearly double!

"We're going to need a bigger vote!"

gormdubhgorm

Billcarson wrote: »

Are you trying to tell me a Gov with both ff and fg would be popular amongst the majority of people. ? It makes a mockery of the push for change against ff and fg. Of course it was unlikely to happen forming a gov without either. But the 2 coming together will stick in peoples craw. I'm sure a reasonable number of people who did vote for either party would not be happy with the two going into coalition with each other either. So we would end up with a Gov very few want.
Anyway let them form a coalition, **** it ,they will pay the price down the line.

whatever Gov is formed it will be a new one and should be given a chance though all the same regardless of who it is.

No what I am telling you is prior to the election three parties FF FG and Labour ALL said they would NOT go into government with SF.

That is 48% of seats or 1.1m of the popular vote. SF got 535k of the popular vote. It is clear there was a massive mandate to keep SF out rather than let them in.
That mandate has to be respected. It is like saying that many who voted for SF in NI would not mind them going into WM. But the reality is SF do not because they say they have the mandate NOT to go into WM.

At least three parties were very clear prior to the election in the ROI that they would not go into government with SF - Labour FF and FG. Anyone voting for them because they thought they would go in with SF were not listening or misguided.

Mortelaro

Billcarson wrote: »

Are you trying to tell me a Gov with both ff and fg would be popular amongst the majority of people. ? It makes a mockery of the push for change against ff and fg. Of course it was unlikely to happen forming a gov without either. But the 2 coming together will stick in peoples craw. I'm sure a reasonable number of people who did vote for either party would not be happy with the two going into coalition with each other either. So we would end up with a Gov very few want.
Anyway let them form a coalition, **** it ,they will pay the price down the line.

whatever Gov is formed it will be a new one and should be given a chance though all the same regardless of who it is.

Stick in who's craw? Sinn Féin voters?
They're even with this surge only less than a quarter of the Dáil
It's tough titty but it's a fact

FrancieBrady

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

No what I am telling you is prior to the election three parties FF FG and Labour ALL said they would NOT go into government with SF.

That is 48% of seats or 1.1m of the popular vote. SF got 535k of the popular vote. It is clear there was a massive mandate to keep SF out rather than let them in.
That mandate has to be respected. It is like saying that many who voted for SF in NI would not mind them going into WM. But the reality is SF do not because they say they have the mandate NOT to go into WM.

At least three parties were very clear prior to the election in the ROI that they would not go into government with SF - Labour FF and FG. Any voting for them because they thought they would go in with SF were not listening or misguided.

By the same token or projection you could say that 24% voted for a UI. But we all know that wasn't the case, necessarily.

It is a bit of a projection to say that everyone that voted FG/FF voted for them NOT to go into government with SF.

The RED C poll shows that it is all a bit more nuanced.
https://www.redcresearch.ie/voter-coalition-preferences-ge2020/

gormdubhgorm

I Am The Law wrote: »

And yet still not an overall majority, not just for either FG or FF but also FG+FF.

Yes but there was a large consensus among the electorate that did NOT want SF including labour.

Throw in the Greens and a few independents that do not care or are like-minded and it has the basis for a decent government.

What proposal have SF come up with thier left wing coalition pipe dream has died on it's ass. All SF are trying to do at the moment is squeal and say, 'but they won't play with us'. There is good reason because SF have been known to be in with a bad crowd and hang around street corners.

The best that SF can hope for is to play the victim, a position they are well practiced in over many decades.

Feisar

joseywhales wrote: »

Why are people talking about the popular vote as if it means anything, it doesn't. It's like claiming to win a soccer match because you kicked more balls over the crossbar, different game lads.

It's a "cheated, not defeated" type thing.

FrancieBrady

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

Yes but there was a large consensus among the electorate that did NOT want SF including labour.

Throw in the Greens and a few independents that do not care or are like-minded and it has the basis for a decent government.

What proposal have SF come up with thier left wing coalition pipe dream has died on it's ass. All SF are trying to do at the moment is squeal and say, 'but they won't play with us'. There is good reason because SF have been known to be in with a bad crowd and hang around street corners.

The best that SF can hope for is to play the victim, a position they are well practiced in over many decades.

And again you ignore those who voted for FF based on their claim that they would NOT form a grand coalition with FG in January for pete's sake.

You are jumping up and down claiming stuff the electorate 'voted' for just to suit your own preferences.