So according to the Sindo,its an FF-FG-Green-Grand coalition then ?

is_that_so

NIMAN wrote: »

This could work in SF's favour.

We might have 4 or 5 years now of FF/FG/GP, and they will have to deliver tens of thousands of new homes and fix the trolley and hospital issues, otherwise it will simply push more people to SF in the next GE. Plus there is Brexit, a potential slow down which would also be a disaster.

So a few more years in opposition might be a blessing for SF. Unless of course the new government fixes things, and then FG/FF will be forgiven and maybe poll better next time round.

The housing situation always needed more time and effort than the incumbents gave it and even 2-3 years down the road it would be expected to be a whole lot more stable. Oddly enough Brexit is the one thing they would be strongest on with the Brexit team back in situ again.

woohoo!!!

I may not like it but it is democracy in action. People voted, parties and indos got in, now up to them to figure it out. 2 of the big 3 coming together and an other is what the numbers said. I'd prefer if SF were going into government but they didn't get enough seats to ensure that they did.

is_that_so

Augme wrote: »

Some type of climate change plan says it all though. If they get run over in government like they did last time it would be very foolish.

Realpolitik will out here, not hopeless idealism. I think the numbers allow all three, assuming it is these three, to lay down their absolute red lines. For the Greens that's climate change and I think the other two can go along with that. If someone says no then it's probably another election, but that doesn't mean any of them is forced to do a deal.

firemansam4

Augme wrote:

You'd have thought the greens would have learnt there lesson from the last time out. I can't see this being popular with their voters at all. I was one of them and I'd really struggle to vote for them again in the next election.

Well maybe you should have took more time and listened to there manifesto before voting for them then as they clearly stated before the election they would be willing to work with any of the parties who would implement some of there green policies.

_Kaiser_

So with FG and the Greens, all we can expect is lots more taxes under the guise of saving the planet and meeting arbitrary targets - fantastic! :rolleyes:

They'll build some more social housing which won't benefit anyone who isn't on list somewhere (given the length of those lists), and the children's hospital and rural broadband will go ahead at ridiculous final costs.

It won't do much for those already living month to month and paying for everything here, unless you consider a fiver a week income tax cut (which will be more than absorbed in the aforementioned new taxes) something to shout about.

We would have been better off going back to the ballot box and trying to get a clear majority. I'm not convinced that SF would be the ones to get it - I think voter apathy and expectation that FF and FG would simply swap seats resulting in the low turnout is where SF's bounce came from.

Ash.J.Williams

Uriel. wrote: »

A great result. Three of the four biggest parties coming together to form a, hopefully, stable government.
Shinners can now spend some time doing due diligence with their new TDs and the rest of the left can reassume their comfy, no responsibility lives in the Dáil.

One of the Kildare sf reps was on her holidays during the canvassing and election she literally had her name down and that’s it

Mortelaro

NIMAN wrote: »

This could work in SF's favour.

We might have 4 or 5 years now of FF/FG/GP, and they will have to deliver tens of thousands of new homes and fix the trolley and hospital issues, otherwise it will simply push more people to SF in the next GE. Plus there is Brexit, a potential slow down which would also be a disaster.

So a few more years in opposition might be a blessing for SF. Unless of course the new government fixes things, and then FG/FF will be forgiven and maybe poll better next time round.

Well,we would all deserve a majority SF government if none of the protest vote problems are fixed after 5 years
But I suspect the people behind this grand coalition idea are clever enough not to fall asleep at the problem wheel a 2nd time
SF mis fired
Their only hope now is a massive recession

Whitecarstones

And when things (continue) to go wrong with health, housing, childcare etc etc, who will get the brunt of it at the next GE?

The Greens!

Are they that stupid to get into bed with the two Fossils?

Billcarson

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

I don't think you understand what democracy means when FF and FG hold twice as many seats as SF.

Its nothing more then a circle the wagons job against sf and others. I look forward sf breaking through that circle in a few yrs time.

Mortelaro

Whitecarstones wrote: »

And when things (continue) to go wrong with health, housing, childcare etc etc, who will get the brunt of it at the next GE?

The Greens!

Are they that stupid to get into bed with the two Fossils?

But under your new change overlords, the first change will be nothing will go wrong
SF's biggest nightmare would be to lose half those office expenses and for the new kildare t.d not to be able to go on an even bigger all inclusive family holiday this time,for say a roundy birthday

GG66

firemansam4 wrote: »

FF, FG and GP got over 50 percent of the vote.

Can you explain how this is a blow for democracy?

Also SF have already tried looking at making up a left wing government but the numbers just are not there for them.

True, I don't think it's a blow for democracy as this is the result of proportional representation

But he does have a point worthy of an unbiased discussion.

FG ran on a platform where Varadkar proposed working with FF again. I think it's fair to say the vast majority of the population rejected this. FG lost seats and returned as the 3rd largest party.

FF ran on a platform where MM was clear he didn't want a FFFG coalition. He also said he wouldn't work with SF. The electorate voted for them on this basis and they also lost seats.

Now it's impossible to know why every individual voted the way they did but it's fair to say there was a massive mood for change. A Govt made up of FFFG is not change.

This is two parties who individually and as a unit have been rejected and are clinging to power. And they want to drag the Greens along with them.

The Greens may decide to join them. Remember this is the Indo saying this while the GP have not said anything like this. If they do I expect they will be annihilated again at the next polls as I don't believe most people voted Green to put FFFG back into power.

I think it's going to be interesting if the greens say no and a Govt isnt formed and we have a reelection.

We may not end up with a common platform for the left but the public will have a better sense of what they're voting for.

FFFG or the other parties who wont support them.

Bob24

Oranage2 wrote: »

SF won't like this but it definitely suits them being able to moan from the side. If FFG+G do a bad job then SF get their chance rightfully next GE.

I actually think this is good for SF long term for the reason you mention.

FG and FF have already been hard to tell appart for many voters for a few decades but at least there was an apparence of change as they were taking turns to be in power. If they now go into a coalition after every single election they will truly become indistinguishable and indeed more and more voters will see them as one single FFG party. Meaning that SF can present themselves as the only alternative to that FFG party which has been in charge for ages. And keeping in mind that in every democracy at one point or another voters want to change the party in charge this puts SF next in line.

And to be clear I am not saying the above is good or bad; just that it is where we are likely headed if we get another FF/FG coalition.

If I was FF/FG I would think long and hard before entering into that coalition, as IMO it would mark the end of each of them’s ability to get a majority without the other and eventually lead to either a merger between them or one of them becoming a minor party whose only electoral ambitions could ever be as a junior coalition partner.

Seth Brundle

GG66 wrote: »

FG ran on a platform where Varadkar proposed working with FF again. I think it's fair to say the vast majority of the population rejected this. FG lost seats and returned as the 3rd largest party.

Now it's impossible to know why every individual voted the way they did but it's fair to say there was a massive mood for change. A Govt made up of FFFG is not change.

This is two parties who individually and as a unit have been rejected and are clinging to power. And they want to drag the Greens along with them.

The Greens may decide to join them. Remember this is the Indo saying this while the GP have not said anything like this. If they do I expect they will be annihilated again at the next polls as I don't believe most people voted Green to put FFFG back into power.

Most people didn't vote for any particular party or proposal (including SF & the alphabet soup). This is normal!

Mortelaro

GG66 wrote: »

True, I don't think it's a blow for democracy as this is the result of proportional representation

But he does have a point worthy of an unbiased discussion.

FG ran on a platform where Varadkar proposed working with FF again. .

This is where the rest of your post falls down
Vradakar DID Not propose during the election that FG work with FF again
When pressed he said they would only as a last resort
The prospect of having to do that seems to be one of the messages of the election result
I would agree though that both parties may aswell merge after this though
Which btw wouldn't be a favourite outcome for SF either as then there would be an even more concentrated attack on their Spend spend spend until we're broke again agenda

Whitecarstones

Mortelaro wrote: »

But under your new change overlords, the first change will be nothing will go wrong
SF's biggest nightmare would be to lose half those office expenses and for the new kildare t.d not to be able to go on an even bigger all inclusive family holiday this time,for say a roundy birthday

Maybe just maybe I do not have any affiliation to any party. Why do people assume that if you are against FF and FG you are automatically a "shinner" sitting at home in their trackies with two teeth in your head and covered in tattoos?

Some people that MAY have voted for "change"...

Overworked and exhausted nurses on crap pay working in over crowded hospitals.
Young teachers who are not treated well with regards to pay inequality.
People who have found themselves homeless in hotels, whilst huge amounts of property lay vacant.
Farmers who are not being paid properly for their produce.
People of all ages who have been let to rot on hospital trolleys in narrow corridors.
Hard working people who pay usc, despite the fact it was supposed to be abolished years ago.
Those who have to pay extortionate childcare costs.
Those who have to pay extortionate rent every month yet cant be approved for a mortgage.
Those who yes do cherish their history and felt insulted the RIC was to be remembered. (Dont have to be a shinner).
Those who are in fear of their lives because of crime and nothing really being done about it. (Co. Louth enters my head).
Those who are sick of seeing the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.

I could go on and on....

People are so blinded by their hatred of SF they seem to forgive the two main parties for all the damage they have done to this country. THEY. Not SF, OR PPB OR GREENS OR SDS etc.

So why not give SF a shot at doing something the other two have failed to rectify over and over again?

I think people are cutting off their nose to spite their face at this stage.

But I really think people need to stop tarnishing SF voters all the same. Its coming from complete snobbery. Its not all RA heads voting for this change. Its people from all walks of life that are sick to their teeth of the incompetence, and their greed.

_Kaiser_

Whitecarstones wrote: »

And when things (continue) to go wrong with health, housing, childcare etc etc, who will get the brunt of it at the next GE?

The Greens!

Are they that stupid to get into bed with the two Fossils?

They did before remember. They were in with FF till 2011

The thing about the Greens is they have already sold their voters a lie. All the new taxes they'll push for will do fook all to help the environment. It'll just put more financial pressure on people already paying enough.

When China and the USA among others start taking the "climate emergency" :rolleyes: seriously then come back to me. Until then trying to force Ireland into living like we're in some 3rd world backwater will do zero to save the bunny rabbits!

GG66

Bob24 wrote: »

If I was them I would think long and hard before entering into that coalition, as IMO it would mark the end of each of them’s ability to get a majority without the other and eventually lead to either a merger between them or one of them becoming a minor party whose only electoral ambitions could be as a junior coalition partner.

I think you're right. FF didn't want to go into coalition last time out because they wanted to deny SF the main opposition podium.

It didnt work out come election time, the ppl saw through it. They won't do it again and either will FG so a coalition is the only way to go unless they want a reelection.

I expect they're thinking the following

1. If it's considered a protest vote - Steal the SF policies that reflect some of the demands of the people and hope they do enough between now and the next election.

2. If it's a shift to the left - hole it off for as long as possible. A coalition will allow MM to be Taoiseach and possibly LV in rotation. Also allows other old boys to shore up their pensions with ministerial ones before the tide turns.

3. Wrap this all up in "stability, best interest of the country" rhetoric

The Govt. won't last 5 years and they'll both be out before then.

Mortelaro

Whitecarstones wrote: »

But I really think people need to stop tarnishing SF voters all the same. Its coming from complete snobbery. Its not all RA heads voting for this change. Its people from all walks of life that are sick to their teeth of the incompetence, and their greed.

But at the top of your post... you said this

you are automatically a "shinner" sitting at home in their trackies with two teeth in your head and covered in tattoos?

Whitecarstones

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

They did before remember. They were in with FF till 2011

The thing about the Greens is they have already sold their voters lie. All the new taxes they'll push for will do fook all to help the environment. It'll just put more financial pressure on people already paying enough.

When China and the USA among others start taking the "climate emergency" :rolleyes: seriously then come back to me. Until then trying to force Ireland into living like we're in some 3rd world backwater will do zero to save the bunny rabbits!

I am not a Green voter. Just pointing out that if I was in that party I would be like, well hold on its obvious a significant amount of people voted for complete change if we go into gov with these geezers we could be in for a rude awakening at the next election.

Like Labour when they went into gov with FG

quokula

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

They did before remember. They were in with FF till 2011

The thing about the Greens is they have already sold their voters a lie. All the new taxes they'll push for will do fook all to help the environment. It'll just put more financial pressure on people already paying enough.

When China and the USA among others start taking the "climate emergency" :rolleyes: seriously then come back to me. Until then trying to force Ireland into living like we're in some 3rd world backwater will do zero to save the bunny rabbits!

The thing about the Greens is that unlike the sinners they actually believe in their policies and I believe / hope they’ll be willing to go into government for the sake of making what difference they can in the biodiversity crisis and the climate crisis, even if it hurts them at the next election.

SF will never ever put country before party in that way.

Whitecarstones

Mortelaro wrote: »

But at the top of your post... you said this

And?

I have seen people commenting about SF on several threads saying all unemployed, all toothless, all covered in tattoos, ra heads a de bla.

And i am saying that not every sf voter should be tarnished that way.

So rather than trying to deflect maybe go have a think about what FF and FG have represented for this country.

is_that_so

Whitecarstones wrote: »

Maybe just maybe I do not have any affiliation to any party. Why do people assume that if you are against FF and FG you are automatically a "shinner" sitting at home in their trackies with two teeth in your head and covered in tattoos?

Some people that MAY have voted for "change"...

Overworked and exhausted nurses on crap pay working in over crowded hospitals.
Young teachers who are not treated well with regards to pay inequality.
People who have found themselves homeless in hotels, whilst huge amounts of property lay vacant.
Farmers who are not being paid properly for their produce.
People of all ages who have been let to rot on hospital trolleys in narrow corridors.
Hard working people who pay usc, despite the fact it was supposed to be abolished years ago.
Those who have to pay extortionate childcare costs.
Those who have to pay extortionate rent every month yet cant be approved for a mortgage.
Those who yes do cherish their history and felt insulted the RIC was to be remembered. (Dont have to be a shinner).
Those who are in fear of their lives because of crime and nothing really being done about it. (Co. Louth enters my head).
Those who are sick of seeing the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.

I could go on and on....

People are so blinded by their hatred of SF they seem to forgive the two main parties for all the damage they have done to this country. THEY. Not SF, OR PPB OR GREENS OR SDS etc.

So why not give SF a shot at doing something the other two have failed to rectify over and over again?

I think people are cutting off their nose to spite their face at this stage.

But I really think people need to stop tarnishing SF voters all the same. Its coming from complete snobbery. Its not all RA heads voting for this change. Its people from all walks of life that are sick to their teeth of the incompetence, and their greed.

Ignoring the embedded rant and the references to robust assertions about SF, in short they didn't get the seats. They also expressed a lack of enthusiasm for either of the other two. They, in turn, have issues with SF the organisation, as do their members and voters and they are poles apart on what constitutes government policy. Just because people voted for them gives them no absolute right to enter government. Governments are formed after an election, not during it.

firemansam4

GG66 wrote:

FF ran on a platform where MM was clear he didn't want a FFFG coalition. He also said he wouldn't work with SF. The electorate voted for them on this basis and they also lost seats.

He didn't explicitly rule out talking to FG after the election but he did rule out SF.

Most people who voted FF did so in the knowledge that they weren't realistically going to be able to govern without the support of at least one of the other 2 major parties. But FF only explicitly ruled out going into power with SF before the election.

There is nothing undemocratic about them forming a government, although I suspect if they do they will be making SF by far the largest party at the next election.

GG66

Mortelaro wrote: »

This is where the rest of your post falls down
Vradakar DID Not propose during the election that FG work with FF again

Ok, fair enough. Incorrect choice of semantics on my part.

While it he may have been open to it rather than formally proposing it the implications are the same. What was clear to the public was FG were willing to work with FF again in Govt.

In one debate he was practically inviting it while MM Martin was saying no.

At the time I believed LV was deliberately undermining MM as a vote for change. He wasn't wise to the SF surge at the time.

Mortelaro

is_that_so wrote: »

Ignoring the embedded rant and the references to robust assertions about SF, in short they didn't get the seats. They also expressed a lack of enthusiasm for either of the other two. They, in turn, have issues with SF the organisation, as do their members and voters and they are poles apart on what constitutes government policy. Just because people voted for them gives them no absolute right to enter government. Governments are formed after an election, not during it.

This

However, I'd imagine it would last the five years, get 150k plus houses built and follow through on Sláinte care and child care costs
3 things that would be a Sinn Fein worst nightmare from an electoral fetish point of view

Bob24

GG66 wrote: »

I think you're right. FF didn't want to go into coalition last time out because they wanted to deny SF the main opposition podium.

It didnt work out come election time, the ppl saw through it. They won't do it again and either will FG so a coalition is the only way to go unless they want a reelection.

I expect they're thinking the following

1. If it's considered a protest vote - Steal the SF policies that reflect some of the demands of the people and hope they do enough between now and the next election.

2. If it's a shift to the left - hole it off for as long as possible. A coalition will allow MM to be Taoiseach and possibly LV in rotation. Also allows other old boys to shore up their pensions with ministerial ones before the tide turns.

3. Wrap this all up in "stability, best interest of the country" rhetoric

The Govt. won't last 5 years and they'll both be out before then.

Thinking about it, while not exactly the same there are similarities with the CDU/SPD coalitions to stay in power in Germany, which if I am not mistaken have started quite a bit earlier than FG/FF coalitions.

The end result in Germany seems to be that the two massive parties which had written the political history of the country are loosing grip; and the Green Party as well as AFD which are historically junior/protest parties might be emerging as the new alternative many voters are looking at in terms of chose their next leader. I might be jumping horse, but I could possibly see our Greens and SF playing that same role here of FF/FG stay on their current trajectory.

Edgware

Salary Negotiator wrote: »

This is SF’s ideal outcome.

They could not have delivered on any of the main points of their manifesto so will be delighted that they’re not in power.

SF are delighted at this no matter what they may say.

There is no way McDonald, O Broin etc will be happy sitting on the opposition bench while FF and FG know what they have to do to increase their support in time for the next election

Whitecarstones

is_that_so wrote: »

Ignoring the embedded rant and the references to robust assertions about SF, in short they didn't get the seats. They also expressed a lack of enthusiasm for either of the other two. They, in turn, have issues with SF the organisation, as do their members and voters and they are poles apart on what constitutes government policy. Just because people voted for them gives them no absolute right to enter government. Governments are formed after an election, not during it.

Not a rant at all. Just stating my case like i am entitled to do.

Not SF assertions. Believe it or not these things are happening around the country. Do you watch the news? Or walk out the door and talk to people?

I am not saying "I DEMAND SINN FEIN GO INTO GOV NOW THEY GOT MOST FIRST PREFERENCE VOTES". I Simply said maybe they deserve a shot. If they fail, they fail and only then would they be on equal terms with FF and FG. Because they HAVE failed.

dwmcdos

Fianna Fail may as well go for it, they've nothing to lose looking at their voter demographic, if they sit in opposition a good chunk of their core vote dies off before the next election, whereas if they manage to do a good job in government they might pull some younger voters back from SF. It makes no sense for the Greens, half their seats came from SF transfers and the other half were mostly votes against FF and FG. Can see this coalition finishing them if it goes ahead. FG? Can't see their core vote deserting them too much further but they'll make no friends either. They'll lose my vote if they go ahead with this.

jimmycrackcorm

Whitecarstones wrote: »

People are so blinded by their hatred of SF they seem to forgive the two main parties for all the damage they have done to this country. THEY. Not SF, OR PPB OR GREENS OR SDS etc.

So why not give SF a shot at doing something the other two have failed to rectify over and over again?

I think people are cutting off their nose to spite their face at this stage.

But I really think people need to stop tarnishing SF voters all the same. Its coming from complete snobbery. Its not all RA heads voting for this change. Its people from all walks of life that are sick to their teeth of the incompetence, and their greed.

What people have been blinded by is the populist policies of SF that they can simply magic up change.

More houses are being built, house prices are dropping ( which I know from real life experience).

Why give SF a chance? I would if they produced an actual radical policy that validly ensured more housing could be built. But they won't because such a policy would also alienate their own voters