So according to the Sindo,its an FF-FG-Green-Grand coalition then ?

ThunbergsAreGo

My only hope is they make working "work" for people but given the election narrative I am not expecting much

I actual think the biggest mistake they will make is trying to be like a SF lite. That isn't what their voters asked for.

Most people in Ireland aren't actually left or right inclined, they just want their lives to be better (and are incredibly driven by media narrative)

is_that_so

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

This is surely blinding by wishful thinking than any rational analysis. Ireland is not going to turn left, let alone left to a party with an added patina of violence, terrorism, murder, and semtex experts.
They cannot be obliterated - there is simply far to great a majority in Ireland for whom they accurately represent their political leaning. I could see a merger on the cards alright, possibly in a couple of elections time. SF can become the dominant opposition, as more and more people forget the whiff of gunpowder, and a predominantly two party choice for government - the natural order of democracies- reestablished itself. And SF will likely, with a couple of smalies form à Govt some day. They will gravitate towards the centre though to achieve that. Blair's Labour style.

It is their future to stand any chance to govern but they will have to leave the left and some of their hardcore people behind. If they do that right they'll gain far more. I do wish they'd stop calling us "citizens" though!

The Rape of Lucretia

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Absolutely- and also, that quote from Richard Bruton around “explaining detailed policy”- that’s where the traditional parties are going wrong- the public LOVE upfront statements- 100,000 houses, let’s get Brexit done, Fake News- they don’t want the detail nor have the patience for it, nor in many cases will be able to understand it - pithy positive sound bytes are what gets votes these day- Trump knows it, Borris knows it, and indeed, Mary Lou knows it- “I’m not his Mammy”

When 84% of voters return the same political picture of the Dail, it is plain, there is no great appetite for change. Improvement sure. Who doesn't want that? But not change as such. What is already being done, but just done better. Most reasonable people realise this, and so as a group, didn't move their vote.

Wanderer78

The Rape of Lucretia wrote:

This is surely blinding by wishful thinking than any rational analysis. Ireland is not going to turn left, let alone left to a party with an added patina of violence, terrorism, murder, and semtex experts. They cannot be obliterated - there is simply far to great a majority in Ireland for whom they accurately represent their political leaning. I could see a merger on the cards alright, possibly in a couple of elections time. SF can become the dominant opposition, as more and more people forget the whiff of gunpowder, and a predominantly two party choice for government - the natural order of democracies- reestablished itself. And SF will likely, with a couple of smalies form à Govt some day. They will gravitate towards the centre though to achieve that. Blair's Labour style.

Yup definitely, the world is definitely gravitating towards a more neoliberal society, spot on

LeinsterDub

is_that_so wrote: »

Well Lemass set up the education system you came through, shook off our protectionist attitude and overdependence on agriculture, which in turn laid the foundations for the FDI model we still value along with our path to EEC membership. The 94-97 coalition were the first to steer us towards the low unemployment and decent growth model, they had a budget surplus and gave us the 12.5% CT.

Fair enough. I was being a tad hyperbolic saying 90 years in fairness

road_high

suicide_circus wrote: »

The problem with keeping SF to their natural environment of the opposition benches is that we'll never hear and end of it, old boys club conspiracy, #voteforchange, world's smallest violin etc etc

If SF actually got into government their cough would have been softened forevermore after they at very least failed to deliver the whackier parts of the manifesto and more than likely tanked the economy to some degree

I believe they should be forced in. Yes the economy would be damaged and they’d achieve zilch but it would be the perfect illustration for people as to how useless sf actually are

Idbatterim

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

This is surely blinding by wishful thinking than any rational analysis. Ireland is not going to turn left, let alone left to a party with an added patina of violence, terrorism, murder, and semtex experts.
They cannot be obliterated - there is simply far to great a majority in Ireland for whom they accurately represent their political leaning. I could see a merger on the cards alright, possibly in a couple of elections time. SF can become the dominant opposition, as more and more people forget the whiff of gunpowder, and a predominantly two party choice for government - the natural order of democracies- reestablished itself. And SF will likely, with a couple of smalies form à Govt some day. They will gravitate towards the centre though to achieve that. Blair's Labour style.

it doesnt need to go left, the analysis is wrong. Is abolishing usc up to a point and lpt a left wing strategy typically? I have no issue with centreist government, I just am not tolerating rip off housing and it is deliberate and intentional. They give away luxury housing for as good as free and hundreds of thousands of workers, many paying a marginal rate of FIFTY percent are meant to sit back, while they live in kips or at home and think "sure its grand"? LOL! we couldnt all get housing for a pittance years ago, how many who got a boom time loan , would qualify now? So we are rich enough to give away luxury housing for as good as free, but the working poor, paying for it all, should exist for decades, in the hope of clawing enough together, to live in some boring dump an hour outside of dublin? yeah right!

ThunbergsAreGo

Idbatterim wrote: »

it doesnt need to go left, the analysis is wrong. Is abolishing usc up to a point and lpt a left wing strategy typically? I have no issue with centreist government, I just am not tolerating rip off housing and it is deliberate and intentional. They give away luxury housing for as good as free and hundreds of thousands of workers, many paying a marginal rate of FIFTY percent are meant to sit back, while they live in kips or at home and think "sure its grand"? LOL! we couldnt all get housing for a pittance years ago, how many who got a boom time loan , would qualify now? So we are rich enough to give away luxury housing for as good as free, but the working poor, paying for it all, should exist for decades, in the hope of clawing enough together, to live in some boring dump an hour outside of dublin? yeah right!

Abolishing USC and property tax would be right wing I'd have thought.

Or it if we are all being honest populist

is_that_so

garrettod wrote: »

Think the wheels came off there, a few years back... Bouncing in and out of the SDs really took from him, not sure we'll ever see him at his best again.

That has not gone down well locally I believe and he made quite the idiot of himself in the TV debate. According to some folks I know in Wicklow , his best is anywhere but in the Dail!

Idbatterim

this bull**** about extra taxes, a tiny percentage of the population, might have been worse off, even if you were earning 140k or whatever they wanted to increase income tax from. You were likely going to also benefit from the LPT abolition and usc reduction up to a reasonably high point.

Also many of those who earn that money, are thievening a living, politicians, those in RTE , many civil servants. They should be paying more, where you would have an issue is the private sector and the likes of doctors, consultants etc, then again, if they havent left this farcical tax and work environment here, they might stay...

The Rape of Lucretia

is_that_so wrote: »

It is their future to stand any chance to govern but they will have to leave the left and some of their hardcore people behind. If they do that right they'll gain far more. I do wish they'd stop calling us "citizens" though!

Nó need to move the the right at all. They don't need to alienate anyone. Just position themselves as the compétant, safe pair of hands, reasonable to all, with no axe to grind or scores to settle with any element of society, and they will generally govern.
The C&S Govt just finished could be looked back on as the start of a decades long FFFG government in various forms. C&S, 3 way coalition, 2 way coalition, merger, etc.
Which would reflect Ireland evolution to a country of mature politics, leaving the old treaty distinction as purely for the history books, while letting SF be the opposition, but, a permanent opposition, unable to really muster the left leaning numbers, in a majority centrist country, to ever really get close to power.

lawred2

BanditLuke wrote: »

Another blow for democracy if true.

Not really. FF/FG/Greens represent close to 60% of the first preference votes and delivers a slim majority in the Dail.

The Rape of Lucretia

lawred2 wrote: »

Not really. FF/FG/Greens represent close to 60% of the first preference votes and delivers a slim majority in the Dail.

And even higher than 60% if you take a divisor without the votes of cranks, opportunists, and vaudeville acts that are the independents, and very much the fly in the ointment that makes forming a majority of genuine TDs the difficulty it now is.
Before Ireland can restore a normal political choice, the people need to rid themselves of this self indulgent, self harming, penchant it has developed in the last 10 years, of spoiling their vote in that way.

(the people of Kerry are verging on needed a spell in a political re-education facility, for example. The people of Tip, should probably get a sin binning of a couple of elections, to reflect on their performance as voters).

LuasSimon

It’s only not fitting today’s Sunday independent has a continuation of the FG-FF gravy train for the rich ... and also has Ireland’s 250 richest people pull out .

Easy for many of these to be rich when they wont pay any tax in this country . Hard to know should these people be called Irish .

tipptom

lawred2 wrote: »

Not really. FF/FG/Greens represent close to 60% of the first preference votes and delivers a slim majority in the Dail.

Yeah,Two of the biggest parties in the state combined along with the Greens put together and the big twos vote in freefall election after election just about makes a government.
An absolute tsunami of change was voted for and admitted to by the leaders of FF/FG straight after the vote and they said they have to respect that but what do they do, only go back to the same.

The Greens will only suffer for whoring themselves out to these two again and now that the younger people are voting en masse against the big two and more importantly using their transfers for anybody but FF/FG this will also include the Greens.
Even if they do something in the next 5 years for the ordinary people instead of their crony's it will be seen as have only being forced to do it by SF and the electorate will see through it.

Its not a matter if,just when inside the next five years

ChikiChiki

Best outcome for SF in my opinion. They have 4 years to get ready to govern.

In the plus side, FFFG have their backs are to the wall and the might actually begin to treat the electorate with less contempt.

All round I think we have the best outcome. They need to get on with it and begin to lessen the hardship on the people that get up at 5am in the morning and actually are the powerhouse of our economy.

I would hope a new centre right party forms soon that will finally rid us of FF and FG.

ThunbergsAreGo

tipptom wrote: »

Yeah,Two of the biggest parties in the state combined along with the Greens put together and the big twos vote in freefall election after election just about makes a government.
An absolute tsunami of change was voted for and admitted to by the leaders of FF/FG straight after the vote and they said they have to respect that but what do they do, only go back to the same.

A tsunami that was given time to form a government and couldn't?

Seems more like a mid sized wave

LuasSimon

It’s only not fitting today’s Sunday independent has a continuation of the FG-FF gravy train for the rich ... and also has Ireland’s 250 richest people pull out .

Easy for many of these to be rich when they wont pay any tax in this country . Hard to know should these people be called Irish .

The Rape of Lucretia

tipptom wrote: »

An absolute tsunami of change was voted for and admitted to by the leaders of FF/FG straight after the vote and they said they have to respect that but what do they do, only go back to the same.

How can it be a tsunami of change, if 84% of the Dáil makeup was returned unchanged? Its the numbers, from the voters, that dictates it is back to the same.

From this seismic change narrative going around, an outsider would be forgiven for thinking SF had won 100 seats, and the combined FF, FG take of only 30.

Does this country still teach math in school?

tipptom

LuasSimon wrote: »

It’s only not fitting today’s Sunday independent has a continuation of the FG-FF gravy train for the rich ... and also has Ireland’s 250 richest people pull out .

Easy for many of these to be rich when they wont pay any tax in this country . Hard to know should these people be called Irish .

Would be interesting if we had a free and unbiased press to see how much these 250 really contribute to FF/FG.

But then again they cant even trust their own when the likes of Owen o Callaghan "donates" 10k to the FF party in Cork and Micky gives the check to the wife to run to Dublin with it and put it in to their personal account up there.
At least Pee Flynn and the wife kept it local and put the 50k in to their ac in Mayo.

The developers and Denis O Brien will be very pleased with FF/FG back in again.

Mortelaro

Idbatterim wrote: »

this bull**** about extra taxes, a tiny percentage of the population, might have been worse off, even if you were earning 140k or whatever they wanted to increase income tax from. You were likely going to also benefit from the LPT abolition and usc reduction up to a reasonably high point.

Also many of those who earn that money, are thievening a living, politicians, those in RTE , many civil servants. They should be paying more, where you would have an issue is the private sector and the likes of doctors, consultants etc, then again, if they havent left this farcical tax and work environment here, they might stay...

What's Bull is thinking if you want to spend 20 billion ond only have 11 billions that you wont need to dip into modest incomes soon enough into your regime to make up the shortfall having eventually been refused by the markets

SeaFields

I didn't want much from this election. Just for meehole not to be Taoiseach. Ahh well.

dabestman1

anyone with a spark cannot say that SF shirked their responsablity but when ff fg won't even talk to you, you're screwed. I would have loved to see sf go in to power and bring some real some change to housing and health beacause with ffg cosy relationship with vested interests such as landlords, developers, they don't have the will to change the status quo. Ah well,, in 5 years time we'll be talking about the issues and that won't change.

dxhound2005

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Best outcome for SF in my opinion. They have 4 years to get ready to govern.

This time it did not matter about the quality of candidate they were able to field. The Change hysteria just took over. But have they got anyone else worth electing from their stable of County Councillors, if people began to examine how good they might be in the Dail?

It is obvious that their Councillors did not impress the electorate in the 5 years after they got their impressive surge in 2014 when they went up from 54 to 159 seats. In 2019 back down to 81 seats. Don't count your chickens, because there is a vote out there which will desert every party if that is the current mood.

On another topic, I hope whoever is sorting out the housing will use some of the 200,000 empty properties, and cut down the need to build so many new ones. This will be a quicker solution, and better for the environment.

MadYaker

tipptom wrote: »

Yeah,Two of the biggest parties in the state combined along with the Greens put together and the big twos vote in freefall election after election just about makes a government.
An absolute tsunami of change was voted for and admitted to by the leaders of FF/FG straight after the vote and they said they have to respect that but what do they do, only go back to the same.

The Greens will only suffer for whoring themselves out to these two again and now that the younger people are voting en masse against the big two and more importantly using their transfers for anybody but FF/FG this will also include the Greens.
Even if they do something in the next 5 years for the ordinary people instead of their crony's it will be seen as have only being forced to do it by SF and the electorate will see through it.

Its not a matter if,just when inside the next five years

Last time I checked about 45% of voters voted to continue the status quo (FFG) and only about 22% voted for SF that's hardly voting for a "tsunami of change"

A SF led government would be unpopular from day one and even more unpopular by the end of their term if they manage to enact some of their dumber policies. If I was Mary Lou id be letting FF and FG spend another 5 years not solving anything. In the mean time play the victim (big bad FFG keeping us out of the government, the will of the people etc etc) basically more hurling from the ditch which SF are good at. Then contest a few more seats in the next election and come back with an even bigger chunk of the vote.

threeball

dxhound2005 wrote: »

This time it did not matter about the quality of candidate they were able to field. The Change hysteria just took over. But have they got anyone else worth electing from their stable of County Councillors, if people began to examine how good they might be in the Dail?

It is obvious that their Councillors did not impress the electorate in the 5 years after they got their impressive surge in 2014 when they went up from 54 to 159 seats. In 2019 back down to 81 seats. Don't count your chickens, because there is a vote out there which will desert every party if that is the current mood.

On another topic, I hope whoever is sorting out the housing will use some of the 200,000 empty properties, and cut down the need to build so many new ones. This will be a quicker solution, and better for the environment.

Unfortunately the standards required of social housing are far higher than that in private development so using the existing stock isn't possible as it falls short of the standard required and retrofitting is either no possible or too expensive. A crazy situation.

dxhound2005

threeball wrote: »

Unfortunately the standards required of social housing are far higher than that in private development so using the existing stock isn't possible as it falls short of the standard required and retrofitting is either no possible or too expensive. A crazy situation.

That's a shame. It means that families are forced to live in hotel rooms and hostels, while perfectly good houses are left empty. I expect a Change administration would sort it out as a priority.

The Rape of Lucretia

dabestman1 wrote: »

anyone with a spark cannot say that SF shirked their responsablity but when ff fg won't even talk to you, you're screwed.

They wouldn't have been screwed if they had won60, 70,80 seats. So the people said no thank you to an SF Govt.
FF and FG are much more politically close to each other than either is to SF. And they have no obligation to talk to them. That's quite apart from the terrorism, murder, knee capping, bombings, etc stench that SF brings with them.

The story is becoming one of victim syndrome : we got 23% of the seats but the 77% isn't bending over backwards to let us into Govt. Waa, Waa, boo hoo.
SF supporters are being downright childish now.

Idbatterim

Sf have been handed a gift the more I think about it, it wasnt like FF or FG said lets sit down and talk, and SF bottled it and people including people who voted for them, could have said "they bottled it" it will be seen as the establishment, seeking to resist change!

threeball

dxhound2005 wrote: »

That's a shame. It means that families are forced to live in hotel rooms and hostels, while perfectly good houses are left empty.

Yep but it's a self enforced situation with all these crazy standards put in place so there is a very low risk of a tenant suing the council. Driving up the costs significantly. Mad that a house you get for free us better built than the one you pay 3 or 400k for.