Feb 29th - Snowfall/Wintry Conditions

Kermit.de.frog

munsterlegend wrote: »

Don’t do this to us Kermit. It usually ends in tears.

Tears of joy? :pac:

ninebeanrows

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Looking better for some snow tonight in the south/southeast anywhere from Cork all the way to Louth and across to Mayo/Galway. How heavy it is is up for grabs.

Have a feeling the precip thrown up with be light drizzle sleet but fingers crossed

Kermit.de.frog

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Have a feeling the precip thrown up with be light drizzle sleet but fingers crossed

Yeah most models on the light and inconsequential side.

Mount Vesuvius

Ukmet snow warning.



Might see some snizzle here though.

Rebelbrowser

As a general comment, I wonder do most of us misuse the short term / precipitation models? In this regard, we see white hatching or pink on these charts and immediately think of lying snow. But falling snow does not equal lying snow as we should have learned (the hard way) by now.

By way of example, the GFS precipitation charts usually represent snow by way of white hatching. We laugh at the GFS' inaccuracy when, like yesterday, it shows very widespread snow, but there really was very widespread falling snow yesterday just going on reports here. It just didn't stick. But it was snow, not rain or even sleet in most cases.

The GFS also has a separate chart for snow heights (or "Hauteur de Neige" as it is labelled on meteociel.fr which most of us use). To be fair, that is pretty conservative and doesn't go to town by any means. I didn't do a screen capture but I suspect that chart for yesterday didn't show any great amounts of lying snow. Equally, for this Saturday, whilst the precipitation chart seems to show a lot of snow, the snow height charts show lying snow to be confined to the inland south east and Ulster with no notable accumulations. To illustrate:-

This is the greatest extent of lying snow shown on the 6z GFS for the weekend



This is the corresponding falling snow chart for that event...



The other models have similar charts for lying snow as opposed to falling snow.

I think maybe we need to concentrate more on those lying snow charts (which, funnily enough, tend to echo the met.ie forecast).

And yet, in total disregard of the above calm, rational, analysis, above I am still hoping for some ninja snow tonight from that passing system to our south!

highdef

First chart is for 7am tomorrow, the other is 7pm on Saturday.

Gonzo

would have been a decent dusting here last night only for that it fell as sleety snow most of the time, too marginal. Could hear the dripping from the gutters as well as the noise of the sleet and bits of hail hit the windows.

Gonzo

the lying snow charts are looking rather blank for the next few days with only the Wicklow Mountains and a few parts of NI getting coverings between now and next Monday, some possible very temporary dustings in the south.



This suggests that any snow that does fall either won't stick or it could be too marginal for snow with a sleety mix instead. Temperatures tonight will be between 1 and 3C in most places which would continue thawing of any lying snow.

As for this Friday and the weekend, Friday has a big mild sector associated with it so looks like plenty of rain for most of us with temperatures reaching double figures for most areas.



The weekend is cooler but similar values to what we have at the moment.
4 to 7C by day and 1 to 3C by night. This may be too marginal for many areas away from high ground so expect showers to be a mix of everything, rain, hail, sleet or snow. Sunday night looks colder with a frost and then another mild sector for Monday.

Rock Lesnar

Im ready for spring now, i much prefer snow in december or january, unless its an easterly any snow now like what we got last night, will melt quicker then it falls

Gonzo

I also think as this is cold zonal and Sunday is the 1st of March, we are too far on in the season to expect lying snow from a westerly, unless we tap into a much colder source. The cold zonality over a week ago was better at producing snow showers over low lying areas than anything over the past few days, yet temperatures are very similar.

We need those low pressures to pass along the south coast with the colder northern wedges over Ireland to have any chance of wintry potential from these systems. NI was on the northern flank for some time the other night, that's why they were able to get a fall of snow with snowman building conditions. We were on the wrong side most of the time, mild air had already busted it for most of us.

Another thing we need is for this zonality to go more northerly with less sea track, less modification and tapping into colder uppers. Straight westerlies with a slight north-west tilt and mixing in with -6 or -7c uppers over 5,000+miles of water isn't enough for final days of February/early March.

This is why yesterdays showers just couldn't do it, there was too much modification, last night most of the showers were sleety in nature and very little sticking away from high ground.

Gaoth Laidir

Here's Saturday's low starting to form, now at 1009 hPa just south of New Foundland, the birthplace of all deep lows this year so far.




This is the latest forecast for Saturday.

pauldry

Is a storm a weekend our new weather now. What's this one called after Ciara Dennis Ellen

Gonzo

pauldry wrote: »

Is a storm a weekend our new weather now. What's this one called after Ciara Dennis Ellen

as long as we stay in the current pattern with a very active jet, we are liable to more storms and a continuation of very unsettled conditions. The Autumn of 2019 and Winter of 2019/2020 can be looked upon as the perfect 6 month block of zonality to the extreme, the perfect storm to keep the Atlantic churning away. I don't think it's possible to get a period of zonality any more extreme than what we've experienced over the past half year. This is why we have floods and are seeing named storms on a weekly basis.

odyboody

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Ukmet snow warning.



Might see some snizzle here though.

Yellow snow, definitely needs a warning:D

Gonzo

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Im ready for spring now, i much prefer snow in december or january, unless its an easterly any snow now like what we got last night, will melt quicker then it falls

You've no idea how much i'm looking forward to Spring and most importantly a prolonged dry period of settled conditions. Weather tends to balance itself out, we've had 6 months of deluges, I think we are well overdue some warmth and calm, settled conditions at some point over the next few months. This pattern that we are in can't go on forever. It goes without saying that last winter and this winter were two back to back horror shows. I'm happy to let winter go and any wintryness go away and return with something hopefully better in store for us next winter!.

odyboody

Gonzo wrote: »

You've no idea how much i'm looking forward to Spring and most importantly a prolonged dry period of settled conditions. Weather tends to balance itself out, we've had 6 months of deluges, I think we are well overdue some warmth and calm, settled conditions at some point over the next few months. This pattern that we are in can't go on forever. It goes without saying that last winter and this winter were two back to back horror shows. I'm happy to let winter go and any wintryness go away and return with something hopefully better in store for us next winter!.

cue complaints in 6 months after a summer of drought, "why didnt we save the water for the summer"

Speak Now

pauldry wrote: »

Is a storm a weekend our new weather now. What's this one called after Ciara Dennis Ellen

Was Ellen officially named or is she next?
Francis is after Ellen.

Thelonious Monk

Gonzo wrote: »

You've no idea how much i'm looking forward to Spring and most importantly a prolonged dry period of settled conditions. Weather tends to balance itself out, we've had 6 months of deluges, I think we are well overdue some warmth and calm, settled conditions at some point over the next few months. This pattern that we are in can't go on forever. It goes without saying that last winter and this winter were two back to back horror shows. I'm happy to let winter go and any wintryness go away and return with something hopefully better in store for us next winter!.

I don't think it works that way! Last summer was awful for the most part, most of our summers are, so we'll prob get 5 days of nice weather and the rest will be the usual blustery showery nonsense until before you know it it's monsoon storm season in autumn again.
I can't take it any more it's been so bad, trying to figure out how to spend at least a month in Spain this summer.

Rebelbrowser

I wonder could us South coasters get lucky with this system tonight? It is an example of a system to the south of us bumping into cold air over us. Worse parameters than last night but evaporative cooling might be a help? Hirlam looks interesting anyway....

Gonzo

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I wonder could us South coasters get lucky with this system tonight? It is an example of a system to the south of us bumping into cold air over us. Worse parameters than last night but evaporative cooling might be a help? Hirlam looks interesting anyway....

high ground may get some snow above 300 or 400 meters, but i'd imagine it will be cold rain or sleet everywhere else. most of the models are going for rain away from high ground, this one is extremely marginal with temperatures of 1 to 4C generally.



Dewpoints around 1 to 3C which means rain.


temperatures also above freezing:

average_runner

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

I don't think it works that way! Last summer was awful for the most part, most of our summers are, so we'll prob get 5 days of nice weather and the rest will be the usual blustery showery nonsense until before you know it it's monsoon storm season in autumn again.
I can't take it any more it's been so bad, trying to figure out how to spend at least a month in Spain this summer.

Summer wasn't awful on the east coast. We had a great time camping most weekends

Dickerty

average_runner wrote: »

Summer wasn't awful on the east coast. We had a great time camping most weekends

Dunno where you live! June, August and Sept were all very wet for the most part, and June had a 13c mean temperature! Only July almost saved it...

Gonzo

Dickerty wrote: »

Dunno where you live! June, August and Sept were all very wet for the most part, and June had a 13c mean temperature! Only July almost saved it...

June was awful, no other way to describe it. July was decent enough with low 20s most days and quite sunny. August was warm but very wet and it was indeed the very first signs of a change to the pattern we have been stuck in ever since.

kingshankly

This has been a horrendous winter one of the worst in recent years

esposito

kingshankly wrote: »

This has been a horrendous winter one of the worst in recent years

Think we can all agree on that

pad199207

kingshankly wrote: »

This has been a horrendous winter one of the worst in recent years

100% agree. Even though you’d be looking forward to the summer, it would fill you with dread thinking that it will probably be just as ****e as winter gone by.

km79

Gonzo wrote: »

June was awful, no other way to describe it. July was decent enough with low 20s most days and quite sunny. August was warm but very wet and it was indeed the very first signs of a change to the pattern we have been stuck in ever since.

I hope everyone remembers that when they wish the summer away after 2 dry weeks in may
THE DROUGHT IS COMING

Donegal Storm

Had a light dusting in Letterkenny this morning, has been an awful month but thats 8 mornings I've woken up to some level of snow cover since the spell in late Jan so at least it hasn't been boring.

Further sleet and snow showers today though as usual just horrible sleety stuff. Roll on Spring now please

United road

km79 wrote: »

I hope everyone remembers that when they wish the summer away after 2 dry weeks in may
THE DROUGHT IS COMING

2 dry weeks in an Irish Summer?
Jaysus, your optimistic

Lucreto

Since all that cold air is still locked up in the Arctic it will get out at some point. The longer its locked up and deeper into the summer the cold will hamper temperatures. I am expecting the summer to be very similar if not worse that last year.