Feb 29th - Snowfall/Wintry Conditions

Gonzo

it looks like we will be in this cool and unsettled spell for anther 10 to 14 days. A continuation of the current setup and mostly cold zonal. The chance of sleet and snow will get less and restricted to high ground unless we tap into something from a colder direction.

Today was a mostly dry and sunny day in Meath, while it was generally a cold day, you could really feel the extra strength in that sun, it felt warmer than it should have considering the temperatures.

This cold zonality started about 2 weeks and back then we were in a better position to attempt low level snow, but day by day this is getting much tougher, as the sun is about to cross over into the northern hemisphere and strengthen futher with longer days.

There are signals of milder and more spring like conditions developing into the 2nd and 3rd week of March, however we've seen similar charts at various stages over the past 6 weeks with the westerlies powering through preventing any such set up.

Oneiric 3

Gonzo wrote: »

it looks like we will be in this cool and unsettled spell for anther 10 to 14 days. A continuation of the current setup and mostly cold zonal. The chance of sleet and snow will get less and restricted to high ground unless we tap into something from a colder direction.
.

All very typically March, but that is the reason that March, along with April, are the two months I most despise in the year. In my opinion, the cold in March and early April feels more brutish than at any stage during the actual winter. It isn't really until the last couple of weeks in April where you can actually safely say that there is any real hint of 'Spring in the air'.

Gaoth Laidir

THe UKMO aviation chart for midnight tonight gives "isolated visibility 500 m in moderate snow on land north of 51 N after 2 am" as the warm front moves northeastwards at 20 knots. The Met Éireann chart gives similar within an area south of Aran Islands -> Wexford ("isolated moderate snow"). I can't post either due to stupid copyright laws.

Rebelbrowser

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

THe UKMO aviation chart for midnight tonight gives "isolated visibility 500 m in moderate snow on land north of 51 N after 2 am" as the warm front moves northeastwards at 20 knots. The Met Éireann chart gives similar within an area south of Aran Islands -> Wesford ("isolated moderate snow"). I can't post either due to stupid copyright laws.

Sounds like the nowcast looks different to what was progged. Could be an interesting night!

Gaoth Laidir

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Sounds like the nowcast looks different to what was progged. Could be an interesting night!

No soundings agree with what they're going with, but their forecasts also include higher ground (up to 500 m).

Gonzo

Saturday is looking like a very interesting day for all of us.

Charts probably over doing it, but it could be potentially quite stormy again with winds up to 140km/h off the south-west and southern coasts and winds generally 70 to 110km/h inland. Southern half of Ireland taking the brunt of this if this verifies. Looks bad for southern England and wales as well. More than likely this will become a named storm.







A cold afternoon with considerable windchill temperatures of 3 to 7C across the country. There will be no shortage of rain either with some very heavy bursts at times and this may turn to sleet in places with snow over hills and mountains.

Gaoth Laidir

UKMO forecast for the northern region, including Northern Ireland. "MON" = Mountains.

ZONE 1: NE OF A LINE LETTERKENNY TO BELFAST TO KENDAL TO THE LINCOLNSHIRE WOLDS,
SLOW-MOV IN W AND MOV NE AT 25KT IN E:
GEN 35KM WITH 2-5/8CUSC 2500-3500FT/7000-9000.
OCNL, ISOL LEE MON, 6KM IN SHRA OR SHGS, WITH 5-7/8CUAC 1500-2500/9000-12000.
ISOL 2500M IN HVY SHRAGS OR HVY TSGS OR SHRASN, WITH 0-3/8ST 1000FT/1500 AND 7/8CB 1500-2500FT/18000-25000.
ISOL, MAINLY NW, 2000M IN HVY SHRASN, WITH 2-5/8ST 600-1000FT/1500 AND 7/8CB 1500FT/26000.
ISOL, MAINLY MON AND NW, 500M IN SHSN, WITH 2-5/8ST 200-600FT/1500 AND 7/8CB 1500FT/26000.
WRNG: HILL FG. MOD ICE AND MOD TURB IN CLD. SEV ICE AND SEV TURB IN CB. TS. ISOL MOD TURB BLW 6000FT, MAINLY NW.

ZONE 2: REST OF REGION:
GEN 30KM WITH 3-6/8CUSC 2000-3500FT/8000 AND 5-7/8ACAS 8000FT/14000.
ISOL (OCNL W) 7KM IN RA OR SHRA, WITH 0-3/8ST 800-1200FT/1500 AND 5-7/8CUSC AND ACAS 1500-2500FT/14000.
ISOL 3000M IN HVY SHRA OR SHRASN, WITH 2-5/8ST 500-1000FT/1500 AND 7-8/8CUSC AND ACAS 1500FT/14000.
WRNG: HILL FG. MOD ICE AND MOD TURB IN CLD. SN MON ABOVE 1200FT.

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

THe UKMO aviation chart for midnight tonight gives "isolated visibility 500 m in moderate snow on land north of 51 N after 2 am" as the warm front moves northeastwards at 20 knots. The Met Éireann chart gives similar within an area south of Aran Islands -> Wexford ("isolated moderate snow"). I can't post either due to stupid copyright laws.

Met Éireann are also saying that in their most recent website forecast? Hill snow and sometimes to lower levels too?

chris2007

Any snow for Dublin tonight?

Gonzo

chris2007 wrote: »

Any snow for Dublin tonight?

very, very unlikely. there might be some rain if the low makes it this far north.

Kermit.de.frog

Thewife

Kermit (AKA snowgod) does this chart mean snow 🀔ðŸ™ðŸ» West county Waterford hoping for snow !

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Kermit.de.frog

Thewife wrote: »

Kermit (AKA snowgod) does this chart mean snow ��ðŸ™ðŸ» West county Waterford hoping for snow !

Possibly a few flakes, not much though. You'd need a lamp post and binoculars handy.

Neighbors won't think you're weird at all :cool:

Danno

We've got "slizzle" ® (TM) here in south Laois at 90mASL

Currently 2.2°c and wait for it...

...an EAST breeze! :eek:

BlueSkyDay

Calm and spitting rain south east.4 degrees.

Feels about 4 degees too.

Thewife

My nearest neighbour is about a mile away , so I can be as weird as I like 😜

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Possibly a few flakes, not much though. You'd need a lamp post and binoculars handy.

Neighbors won't think you're weird at all :cool:

Donegal Storm

Some heavy wet snow showers in Letterkenny all evening giving a temporary dusting on cars, bins etc. Doesn't last long once it stops though

Mortelaro

Dewpoint here in Arklow on the absolute edge of the rain band is sub zero
Gorey just 10mins down the road has a dp of +1.3c inside the rain band
South kilkenny dewpoint at 1.7c dp

Wet bulb here is 1.3c
DP-0.3c
Could be some whiter hills locally by morning near me

Meteorite58

Trough set to have passed over the NW / N in the next hour or so, should be a fair bit of snow lying on higher ground by morning, The Sperrins look to get a good coating. Big wintry showers overnight. Probably some low lying snow also early morning. Showers continuing in the NW /N through the day initially NW'ly, later backing W and SW, rain spreading up over the country from late Thurs/ early Fri morning in a milder airmas.

Donegal Storm

Right on cue, bucketing down in Letterkenny with everything turning white again

M.T. Cranium

Have been out all day, just catching up ... looks like we'll need a thread for Saturday. If 00z models hold serve, will perhaps start one up around 0500h.

Graces7

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Have been out all day, just catching up ... looks like we'll need a thread for Saturday. If 00z models hold serve, will perhaps start one up around 0500h.

Sounds ominous; why?

Humberto Salazar

Graces7 wrote: »

Sounds ominous; why?

Stormy, perhaps, certainly gales on coasts. Deep low very close to Donegal on Saturday.

M.T. Cranium

Very unusual pattern developing as deep layer of cold air pushes into the central Atlantic to fuel the Saturday low -- the boundary pushes as far south as 40 deg N -- fooling some models into depicting snow over the open Atlantic in southwest winds to the southwest of Ireland and west of Brittany. Not sure if I believe that with -4 to -6 850 mb temps, but the essential point is that deep low pressure will spin up on Friday night and blast Connacht all day with at least orange level wind gusts. Trying to get a handle on stability and other parameters as the associated bands of showers could be quite volatile across inland west into south Ulster.

May hold off on the separate thread and see what the mods want to do. I feel about 80% certain that orange level alerts will be hoisted for this tomorrow evening (valid midnight to 1800h Sat).

IF everything was about 2-3 deg colder this could be a rare westerly blizzard sort of a thing, but the actual set up is rather marginal for snow, more like a total mixture of all types of precip, and it looks somewhat colder for Munster than for Connacht during the stormy part of the event, then also during next week this cold pool over the Atlantic deepens somewhat for a few days and Ireland would be close to snowfall parameters when lows track past south coast, once again not much certainty attached.

Anyway the main point is potential for 120-130 km/hr gusts on Saturday in Mayo and Galway, almost as strong for Kerry and Clare, south coast also. Graces, this may be the strongest wind of the winter so far, or equal to the previous peak. I've lost track of which event that was, a few weeks ago anyway.

Kutebride

Oh no ....no likey potential separate thread for wind especially for weekend travel.
Bright, sunny, frost and cold. Meath

Graces7

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Very unusual pattern developing as deep layer of cold air pushes into the central Atlantic to fuel the Saturday low -- the boundary pushes as far south as 40 deg N -- fooling some models into depicting snow over the open Atlantic in southwest winds to the southwest of Ireland and west of Brittany. Not sure if I believe that with -4 to -6 850 mb temps, but the essential point is that deep low pressure will spin up on Friday night and blast Connacht all day with at least orange level wind gusts. Trying to get a handle on stability and other parameters as the associated bands of showers could be quite volatile across inland west into south Ulster.

May hold off on the separate thread and see what the mods want to do. I feel about 80% certain that orange level alerts will be hoisted for this tomorrow evening (valid midnight to 1800h Sat).

IF everything was about 2-3 deg colder this could be a rare westerly blizzard sort of a thing, but the actual set up is rather marginal for snow, more like a total mixture of all types of precip, and it looks somewhat colder for Munster than for Connacht during the stormy part of the event, then also during next week this cold pool over the Atlantic deepens somewhat for a few days and Ireland would be close to snowfall parameters when lows track past south coast, once again not much certainty attached.

Anyway the main point is potential for 120-130 km/hr gusts on Saturday in Mayo and Galway, almost as strong for Kerry and Clare, south coast also. Graces, this may be the strongest wind of the winter so far, or equal to the previous peak. I've lost track of which event that was, a few weeks ago anyway.

I see! And yes, so many vicious gales you lose track … it is utterly lovely today to have slept and have a respite.
Are you hinting that this one will have snow attached?

Oh what ….fun!lol….

I remember one gale up in Orkney when I had to feed my stock and was literally clinging to the washing line pole to stay upright, and the tall rushes were being bent horizontal to the ground . These this winter have just about equalled that.

Donegal Storm

Another fresh covering of snow this morning with about 1cm on cars and grass, just a dusting elsewhere. February turning out to be a surprisingly snowy month here

Graces7

Kutebride wrote: »

Oh no ....no likey potential separate thread for wind especially for weekend travel.
Bright, sunny, frost and cold. Meath

ENJOY today!

NIMAN

Very slow commute in North Donegal this morning.
Roads about 95% white, fresh falls overnight. Quite slippery.

pad199207

Storm this weekend has been named Storm Jorge by the Spanish Met, I presume this will be the name so that we stick with too?

It’s hardly going to be given two names.