Coronavirus

SafeSurfer

The frightening prospect is the US being among the worst affected countries on a par with the current situation in Italy. Unfortunately I think this could be a real scenario in certain areas in the states such as New York, Chicago, Washington etc.
A death rate many times higher than China would be a huge blow to American prestige and really shake the sense of security of Americans.
In this scenario, in an election year, an embattled Trump may seek to blame China for the virus, as has already been happening.
The reaction of Trump in the wake of hundreds of thousands of sick and dying Americans and the economy in ruins is probably the most frightening prospect in generations.

IAMAMORON

SafeSurfer wrote: »

The frightening prospect is the US being among the worst affected countries on a par with the current situation in Italy. Unfortunately I think this could be a real scenario in certain areas in the states such as New York, Chicago, Washington etc.
A death rate many times higher than China would be a huge blow to American prestige and really shake the sense of security of Americans.
In this scenario, in an election year, an embattled Trump may seek to blame China for the virus, as has already been happening.
The reaction of Trump in the wake of hundreds of thousands of sick and dying Americans and the economy in ruins is probably the most frightening prospect in generations.

It will cost him few million in PR fees to turn it around, but he will.

Trump is simply the greatest survivor that modern politics has ever witnessed. It is almost admirable. He has an innate ability to make the most absurd decisions and yet still come out the right side of them from a public perception viewpoint. These are invaluable traits in a successful political career.

Cheerful Spring2

Dohnjoe wrote: »

It's not the rate because those are only confirmed cases, there are mild cases not being tested because people either aren't reporting them or there aren't enough testing kits

The estimated fatality rate for Covid19 is currently around 0.5% to 4% (ish) depending on where you live in the world

Genuine stat based on the ongoing rates coming in from Italy. I don’t disagree, some cases are mild and possibly not counted?
Based on 50,000+ cases reported and near 5,000 deaths- that 8, 9, 10 percent death figure, when you divide, the decimal point, and the actual number.

If you collectively include the world death figure it probably 1 to 2 percent or a bit higher?

Dohnjoe

Alena Tangy Someone wrote: »

You're assuming

I'm not assuming anything. I'm giving the estimates that are being published in the news.

Cheerful Spring2

IAMAMORON wrote: »

It will cost him few million in PR fees to turn it around, but he will.

Trump is simply the greatest survivor that modern politics has ever witnessed. It is almost admirable. He has an innate ability to make the most absurd decisions and yet still come out the right side of them from a public perception viewpoint. These are invaluable traits in a successful political career.

US has a money  printing press ( the FED) they’ll print wealth to try deal with the problem.  Republicans and Democrats are lying and deceiving the America people, the stimulus package is for working familes. Most of this wealth will bailout out corporations, airlines, investors and so on.

2 trillion= 1000 dollars per family! No it probably 100 billion or less.  There'll be no independent research to show working families have received the 1000 dollars. 

Dohnjoe

Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »

Genuine stat based on the ongoing rates coming in from Italy. I don’t disagree, some cases are mild and possibly not counted?
Based on 50,000+ cases reported and near 5,000 deaths- that 8, 9, 10 percent death figure, when you divide, the decimal point, and the actual number.

If you collectively include the world death figure it probably 1 to 2 percent or a bit higher?

Depends on the source and calculation technique, for example the UK's chief medical officer Chris Whitty believes it's around 1% because he maintains there are much milder cases not being counted. Other's say it is up to 5%. Which is why the estimates range from around 0.5% to 4% or 5%

Mic 1972

Alena Tangy Someone wrote: »

That's likely a highly incorrect statement (1% or higher~) that you're (still) lazily throwing about the place. A conspiracy!

You're assuming a bottom-end final vague fatality rate, when most cases still haven't even been resolved. China's numbers are not to be trusted (which forms the basis of your link), Even then, China still has 18k unresolved cases.

Anyone with a bit of sense, realises it's going to be 'much, much' higher than just 1% when the final count comes in, and factoring in any contextual peak demands (the global epicurve hasn't started outside of China, weeks/months away).

Germany have have placed it low, but they might also record cause to any an underlying issue (as some others do). And like France/Spain still at an early phase.

Italy is the 2nd country on the major infection timeline, with a 8.3% fatality rate, which will likely only increase.

20/21st March: https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

E.g. The UK are just starting this week into the low thousands and already have a rate of 4.4%, and one hospital went to critical lockdown status for a while. We can only guess what this will be at peak curve of +10wks circa time. But one thing is for sure, it won't be lower than that current 4% as demand increases.

The US have gone from close to nothing to 26k in a couple of weeks, any fatality rate there is too early to even be considered.

As I said, this 'about 1%' nonsense, is silly dis-information.

Correct, throwing around the 1% figure all along has only created the illusion that Covid isn't very dangerour. Most countries are still sugar coating the issue by reporting unrealistic death rates and misinforming people about the real risks of permanent lung damage across of demographics and regardless of symptoms severity

Mic 1972

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Depends on the source and calculation technique, for example the UK's chief medical officer Chris Whitty believes it's around 1% because he maintains there are much milder cases not being counted. Other's say it is up to 5%. Which is why the estimates range from around 0.5% to 4% or 5%

The mere fact that a % figure is being reported based on personal believes speaks volumes about the reliability of it
Unreported cases are hypothetical, there are no stats around them. Most of them could easily be people at the early stages of the infection who will eventually become more severe

Cheerful Spring2

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Depends on the source and calculation technique, for example the UK's chief medical officer Chris Whitty believes it's around 1% because he maintains there are much milder cases not being counted. Other's say it is up to 5%. Which is why the estimates range from around 0.5% to 4% or 5%

True. The worst-case scenario in Europe is Italy. There model is around 9 percent.
Different countries areas of Europe low 1 percent to 3 percent.
Scientists tend to add it all up to find a true estimate of the virus mortality rate. That world model is about 1 percent or near 2 per cent. 

Dohnjoe

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The mere fact that a % figure is being reported based on personal believes speaks volumes about the reliability of it
Unreported cases are hypothetical, there are no stats around them. Most of them could easily be people at the early stages of the infection who will eventually become more severe

Some people contract Covid19 and don't know they have it. Not every single person who gets the disease is tested. The rate also varies on the country infected, e.g. Germany seems to have a lower mortality rate than other countries

Mic 1972

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Some people contract Covid19 and don't know they have it. Not every single person who gets the disease is tested. The rate also varies on the country infected, e.g. Germany seems to have a lower mortality rate than other countries

So how do you know they have it?

Covid will give you interstitial pneumonia, that's what it does. A mild version of it will still affect your health. It was explained by WHO a while ago that no symptoms cases are very rare, the majority of infected people will show mild to sever symptoms. Not everyone get tested but a lot of testing has been carried out in Italy where the death rate is pretty high

Dohnjoe

Mic 1972 wrote: »

So how do you know they have it?

Covid will give you interstitial pneumonia, that's what it does. A mild version of it will still affect your health. It was explained by WHO a while ago that no symptoms cases are very rare, the majority of infected people will show mild to sever symptoms. Not everyone get tested but a lot of testing has been carried out in Italy where the death rate is pretty high

Some people have mild or no symptoms, especially younger people. Testing has been quite limited (depending on the region)

Have even seen interviews with doctors who have diagnosed themselves with Corona but haven't been able to receive testing kits because they e.g. didn't recently travel from an infected area

However countries like S Korea focused heavily on testing anyone showing the symptoms, they produce a massive amount of test kits every day, their stats are probably more accurate than other countries with limited kits
Currently they are 8.897 cases, 104 deaths

Mic 1972

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Some people have mild or no symptoms, especially younger people. Testing has been quite limited (depending on the region)

Have even seen interviews with doctors who have diagnosed themselves with Corona but haven't been able to receive testing kits because they e.g. didn't recently travel from an infected area

However countries like S Korea focused heavily on testing anyone showing the symptoms, they produce a massive amount of test kits every day, their stats are probably more accurate than other countries with limited kits
Currently they are 8.897 cases, 104 deaths

Italy is doing drive through tests at the moment, people get a swat without even getting off the car. Testing in Italy has been massive


Total tests = 233,000
Positive = 53,000
Recovered = 6,000
Deaths = 4,800

Cheerful Spring2

Dohnjoe wrote: »

, e.g. Germany seems to have a lower mortality rate than other countries

In Germany,  18,000 cases reported yesterday.
I guess the majority of the people who got the virus so far in Germany are young people?

Italy death rate is advancing because they're not enough care and hospital beds to meet the demand. They're is old people dying at home because the Italian doctors and nurses are overworked and can’t get to them.

 If a similar scenario happened in Germany, they’ll be seeing a high death rate too. It's way too early to tell if Germany is on better curve compared to everyone else

Mic 1972

Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »

In Germany, 18,000 cases reported yesterday.
I guess the majority of the people who got the virus so far in Germany are young people?

Italy death rate is advancing because they're not enough care and hospital beds to meet the demand. They're is old people dying at home because the Italian doctors and nurses are overworked and can’t get to them.

If a similar scenario happened in Germany, they’ll be seeing a high death rate too. It's way too early to tell if Germany is on better curve compared to everyone else

HSE has limited capacity, once beds are finished old people won't get access to treatment and that's when you start seeing the numbers rise. There is no reason to believe that Ireland isn't going to end up the same as Italy

Dohnjoe

Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »

In Germany,  18,000 cases reported yesterday.
I guess the majority of the people who got the virus so far in Germany are young people?

Italy death rate is advancing because they're not enough care and hospital beds to meet the demand. They're is old people dying at home because the Italian doctors and nurses are overworked and can’t get to them.

 If a similar scenario happened in Germany, they’ll be seeing a high death rate too. It's way too early to tell if Germany is on better curve compared to everyone else

Someone is reading the news for once

All of this figures discussion reemerged because a poster was misunderstanding the fatality rate of Covid 19 in relation to seasonal flu (they seemed to be insinuating that all of this was overblown and also that it wasn't a pandemic). Most experts state it's at least 10x more fatal than the flu. Keywords: at least. And before someone deliberately tries to misunderstand that, that not a total, it's a percentage rate, and based on current estimates. Jaysus.

Cheerful Spring2

Dohnjoe wrote: »

However countries like S Korea focused heavily on testing anyone showing the symptoms, they produce a massive amount of test kits every day, their stats are probably more accurate than other countries with limited kits
Currently they are 8.897 cases, 104 deaths

South Korea on the border with North Korea. They were equipped to deal with a biological attack.

Cheerful Spring2

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Someone is reading the news for once

All of this figures discussion reemerged because a poster was misunderstanding the fatality rate of Covid 19 in relation to seasonal flu (they seemed to be insinuating that all of this was overblown and also that it wasn't a pandemic). Most experts state it's at least 10x more fatal than the flu. Keywords: at least. And before someone deliberately tries to misunderstand that, that not a total, it's a percentage rate, and based on current estimates. Jaysus.

It is commonsense, just like 9/11

I agree the second part.

eleventh

From what I've read, the symptoms for this illness are a high fever and dry cough. These are the stand-out symptoms and people who have had it have shared that it's noticably different than flu.

Dohnjoe wrote:

The Guardian wrote:

Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms,

Now in sources like this they're saying it can be similar to "seasonal flu symptoms". But with seasonal flu there is always nasal congestion and head cold type symptoms. A cough is congested, not a dry cough.
If The Guardian wants to be accurate, they should not be leading people to believe that it's not much different than flu, as people who have flu then may think they have corona (and may test positive if tests are not accurate).


As to what you're saying about the 1%, they state that as a rough estimate made by a "WHO expert".
I don't see how anyone, expert or not, could come up with such an estimate based on such sparse and questionable data.
How can we be sure as to accuracy of the figures of each country?
How many in a population are getting tested? In most places it seems only those presenting with fairly serious symptoms are getting tested. Many will just rest at home treating symptoms themselves, especially when they realise that local doctors etc aren't available.

eleventh

Dohnjoe wrote:

It's not the rate because those are only confirmed cases, there are mild cases not being tested because people either aren't reporting them or there aren't enough testing kits

Exactly, so you're admitting as much here yourself. How can a fatality estimate be in any way accurate when no-one knows the amount of untested. For every one positive, there may be many who are self-isolating themselves and not notifying services unless symptoms get serious.

Dohnjoe

eleventh wrote: »

From what I've read, the symptoms for this illness are a high fever and dry cough. These are the stand-out symptoms and people who have had it have shared that it's noticably different than flu.


Now in sources like this they're saying it can be similar to "seasonal flu symptoms". But with seasonal flu there is always nasal congestion and head cold type symptoms. A cough is congested, not a dry cough.
If The Guardian wants to be accurate, they should not be leading people to believe that it's not much different than flu, as people who have flu then may think they have corona (and may test positive if tests are not accurate).


As to what you're saying about the 1%, they state that as a rough estimate made by a "WHO expert".
I don't see how anyone, expert or not, could come up with such an estimate based on such sparse and questionable data.
How can we be sure as to accuracy of the figures of each country?
How many in a population are getting tested? In most places it seems only those presenting with fairly serious symptoms are getting tested. Many will just rest at home treating symptoms themselves, especially when they realise that local doctors etc aren't available.

Hmmm you seem to be acting quite pedantic over widely available information

Yet you are suggesting this whole thing is orchestrated, perhaps you could explain what you mean by that?

Cheerful Spring2

Mic 1972 wrote: »

HSE has limited capacity, once beds are finished old people won't get access to treatment and that's when you start seeing the numbers rise. There is no reason to believe that Ireland isn't going to end up the same as Italy

Social distancing will only work if you keep it up till to you defeat the spread. Ireland returns to normal on the March 29th, then everyone back, doing the same routine as before and virus will spread again. 

I don’t agree we are on the way to be like Italy yet?

 Right now there is a modest number of people testing positive. Most of the old people in Ireland are taking notice and keeping themselves isolated from others. They're obviously some who don’t care and will still meet people to have a chat, and they are reckless with other people's health.

 Italy had a complexity. Grandparents lived with young families under one roof.  In Ireland that not a gigantic headache.

In saying all that, I don’t think Ireland doing enough right now to stop the community spread. I think curfews need to be adopted to keep the kids off the street at night. Even 20 and 30 years olds are having house parties with large groups of people invited. Then you have the added problem of young people working with older people on production lines in factories, offices and other places.  We have social distancing after work yet very little during work hours. I fear that's where most of the community spread will occur. 

Cheerful Spring2

eleventh wrote: »

From what I've read, the symptoms for this illness are a high fever and dry cough. These are the stand-out symptoms and people who have had it have shared that it's noticably different than flu.


Now in sources like this they're saying it can be similar to "seasonal flu symptoms". But with seasonal flu there is always nasal congestion and head cold type symptoms. A cough is congested, not a dry cough.
If The Guardian wants to be accurate, they should not be leading people to believe that it's not much different than flu, as people who have flu then may think they have corona (and may test positive if tests are not accurate).


As to what you're saying about the 1%, they state that as a rough estimate made by a "WHO expert".
I don't see how anyone, expert or not, could come up with such an estimate based on such sparse and questionable data.
How can we be sure as to accuracy of the figures of each country?
How many in a population are getting tested? In most places it seems only those presenting with fairly serious symptoms are getting tested. Many will just rest at home treating symptoms themselves, especially when they realise that local doctors etc aren't available.

Models are based on multiplers x how many people can give it to others.
Government allowed the virus to just spread, everyone could have it in about 4 to 5 months.
Flu is typically 0.1 per
Covid is about 1 to 2 per cent.
Even healthy young people have had three stages of sickness. A cold, then flu, and then the life threatening pneumonia.
No sensible government would allow a pneumonia like disease to spread like wildfire.

Cheerful Spring2

Politico news story. This is just for America. This was going to happen ( deep state did the same after the 9/11 introducing the patriot act)

The Justice Department has quietly asked Congress for the ability to ask chief judges to detain people indefinitely without trial during emergencies — part of a push for new powers that comes as the coronavirus spreads through the United States.

Documents reviewed by POLITICO detail the department’s requests to lawmakers on a host of topics, including the statute of limitations, asylum and the way court hearings are conducted. POLITICO also reviewed and previously reported on documents seeking the authority to extend deadlines on merger reviews and prosecutions.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/21/doj-coronavirus-emergency-powers-140023

Ipso

Deep state! Give it a rest

Mic 1972

Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »

Social distancing will only work if you keep it up till to you defeat the spread. Ireland returns to normal on the March 29th, then everyone back, doing the same routine as before and virus will spread again.

I don’t agree we are on the way to be like Italy yet?

Right now there is a modest number of people testing positive. Most of the old people in Ireland are taking notice and keeping themselves isolated from others. They're obviously some who don’t care and will still meet people to have a chat, and they are reckless with other people's health.

Italy had a complexity. Grandparents lived with young families under one roof. In Ireland that not a gigantic headache.

In saying all that, I don’t think Ireland doing enough right now to stop the community spread. I think curfews need to be adopted to keep the kids off the street at night. Even 20 and 30 years olds are having house parties with large groups of people invited. Then you have the added problem of young people working with older people on production lines in factories, offices and other places. We have social distancing after work yet very little during work hours. I fear that's where most of the community spread will occur.

A lot of cliches about Italians here, but we are the same in Ireland

You don't need to live under the same roof to infect people, people get infected in the pubs, public transports, office, shopping malls. The numbers are small and will continue to grow until they are big
Every country started with small numbers

in 1 week we went from 150K cases to 300K wolrdwide

The Nal

This is worth a watch for giggles. Its the latest video from the smart dust halfwit.

Timberrrrrrrr

The Nal wrote: »

This is worth a watch for giggles. Its the latest video from the smart dust halfwit.

What a bellend

blacknight83

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

What a bellend

Been listening too many Alex Jones podcasts

Lonesomerhodes

blacknight83 wrote: »

Been listening too many Alex Jones podcasts

Jones has done some fantastic interviews.

One of them was the famous interview with Hollywood director Aaron Russo, who was in with the Hollywood elites and Rockefellers but was horrified by their plans and decided to warn people.

RIP Aaron.

The microchip (Some Christians would say mark of the Beast hey ho!) is well on the way as money 'carries corona' and that message convince the braindead masses to accept being chipped like cattle.

Arrests without warrants or anyone breaking any law soon
(arrests no doubt by Gardai in normal uniform with no protective measures, I mean surely if you had a killer virus why apporach someone!?)
lockdowns
incredible restrictions on travel
people demonised for going outside
crushed economy
a paranoid/fearful populas
new legislation removing rights to assembly/travel and free speech not even to be reviewed til November
I'd imagine soon forced mandatory vaccines


The testing is a joke as well, swabs that are woefully inaccurate it's why hospitals take blood not swabs, however away people go to be 'swabbed' and told they have Corona when it could be any kind of viral infection as swabbing is so facially inaccurate!.


and yet and yet people still think this is all 'normal' or these people 'care' about us. You really have to despair how braindead some people are.

Actively cheering their removal of all their civil liberties, these people think being incarcerated physically (and mentally) is wonderful.

Extraordinary thing.

I mean I know many of those cheering it never leave the front door anyway sit hermiting online or have 20,000 posts on this and live 'gaming' etc. A vicarious existence online, so it doesn't matter but for those of us who enjoy freedom like being outside and don't like being harassed by and understand how incredibly valuable it is it's scary times!.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGcatieMvfk