Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

Loafing Oaf

bodhrandude wrote: »

I find it strange too that Thailand as remained at a static 35 infected, maybe they're doing a media blackout too to keep the tourists coming.

Could the climate be hindering the spread?

wakka12

Strazdas wrote: »

No Irish medical expert has made such a prediction. They have said individual cases may well show up here but that's a long, long way from thousands or hundreds of thousands of Irish people having the virus.

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/0226/1117632-coronavirus-ireland/
Do you think he was not talking about Ireland ?

wakka12

Strazdas wrote: »

No Irish medical expert has made such a prediction. They have said individual cases may well show up here but that's a long, long way from thousands or hundreds of thousands of Irish people having the virus.

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/0226/1117632-coronavirus-ireland/
Do you think he was not talking about Ireland ?

Charles Babbage

bodhrandude wrote: »

I find it strange too that Thailand as remained at a static 35 infected, maybe they're doing a media blackout too to keep the tourists coming.

It is possible the bug dies not thrive in warmer climes. The number of cases in Singapore hasn't ballooned. If this is the case then perhaps Europe can stave off the worst to December which would be a big help.

sdanseo

Strazdas wrote: »

The virus could last for six to 12 months. Shutting down a country for a year is not a runner. You wouldn't do that even if 20,000 Irish people had the Ebola virus.

The world essentially shut down not much more than 70 years ago in WWII. Food was rationed. Fuel was rationed. Until a couple of years ago I had grandparents alive telling stories about it (my Granny had a very particular story about a 40lb chest of tea intended to keep them in tea leaves for the duration that ended up given away as a deal closer for some insurance sale - they drank coffee until the end of 1945).

It's entirely possible. Less will for it in a global economy. We (humans) are a lot more arrogant and entitled than we were in 1945.

bodhrandude

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Could the climate be hindering the spread?

Yeah could be that, never thought of that and seeing how Singapore seems to be getting a grip of it now with the hotter temperatures.

65535

A worldwide map of cases with deaths quoted also.

https://infographics.channelnewsasia.com/covid-19/map.html

YFlyer

Trump just said the flu has higher mortality rate that coronavirus.

un5byh7sqpd2x0

stephenjmcd wrote: »

That's the thing, people are getting worked up about cases in spain etc but if you read into them all were in northern Italy. Likewise the case in Brazil today was also a person who had been in that region.

I fully expect a case here at some point.

I fully expect it to be me. I was in northern Italy from Friday morning until Monday evening, in very close proximity to people who had spent time in Cremona which is now one of the closed towns.

SeaBreezes

bodhrandude wrote: »

Yeah could be that, never thought of that and seeing how Singapore seems to be getting a grip of it now with the hotter temperatures.

God I hope so...

fr336

YFlyer wrote: »

Trump just said the flu has higher mortality rate that coronavirus.

Never knew Trump posted on Boards

ceadaoin.

Strazdas wrote: »

No Irish medical expert has made such a prediction. They have said individual cases may well show up here but that's a long, long way from thousands or hundreds of thousands of Irish people having the virus.

It will still be pandemic if it is widespread in many countries. That's the definition

SeaBreezes

YFlyer wrote: »

Trump just said the flu has higher mortality rate that coronavirus.

Trump also once showed us a map of a hurricane path that had been
'Updated' with a marker....

ceadaoin.

ceadaoin. wrote: »

It will still be pandemic if it is widespread in many countries. That's the definition

Yes seems like that poster doesn't understand what a pandemic is.

bodhrandude

SeaBreezes wrote: »

God I hope so...

Well they only had 1 case yesterday which is very good, sounds like it might be containable there, a bit of optimism anyways.

SeaBreezes

Did Chinas numbers for today come in already?
Surprised the fatality rate in closed cases didn't drop 1% again

Ironicname

I'm flying to the UK on Friday and now I'm terrified of being in a plane and a train with people.

On top of that, we've just found out the other half is pregnant, and a girl in my daughter's class got home three weeks ago from a family holiday in China.

My nerves have really been rattled by this. I'm genuinely a nervous wreck.

bodhrandude

Ironicname wrote: »

I'm flying to the UK on Friday and now I'm terrified of being in a plane and a train with people.

On top of that, we've just found out the other half is pregnant, and a girl in my daughter's class got home three weeks ago from a family holiday in China.

My nerves have really been rattled by this. I'm genuinely a nervous wreck.

You'll be OK don't worry, at least the UK government are taking it that bit more seriously than over here.

EltonJohn69

I am also a nervous wreck... keep checking the phone... and then going back to my book about the last days of hitler... not a good combination

McGiver

bodhrandude wrote:

Yeah could be that, never thought of that and seeing how Singapore seems to be getting a grip of it now with the hotter temperatures.

Regarding Singapore, it's the following:
1. Temp >25 C - slows it down
2. First class healthcare
3. One party authoritarian government (yes)
4. Disciplined population (due to #3)
5. One of the lowest smoking rate (<14%) in the world (spares the lungs) - the gov is very harsh on drugs/intoxicants of any kind (incl tobacco and alcohol)

Compare with China, Hubei - mostly still cold <10C, 60% males are smokers, massive pollution (both bad for lungs and has been shown in research to increase severity/mortality of the coronavirus), overcrowded defunct healthcare. The only from the Singapore list above that applies for China is #3 and #4 but that's not enough.

BTW Korea has 40% male smokers and it's still cold there, hence it spreads and there's a higher mortality, I speculate.

Now, Greece has 64% male smokers and Russia 70%. I predict higher spread & mortality. Especially in Russia until it gets warm. Vast distances between cities, less air travel (compared to EU) and low density could slow down spread, but who knows. Greece could be saved by the warmth but so high smoker population will likely have consequences if it spreads there.

Re Ireland - we're not very well placed - not very high % of smokers, air quality is OK (in Chinese standards) but we have asthma folks etc. #1-#4 doesn't apply for Ireland so not great.

gmisk

McGiver wrote: »

Regarding Singapore, it's the following:
1. Temp >25 C - slows it down
2. First class healthcare
3. One party authoritarian government (yes)
4. Disciplined population (due to #3)
5. One of the lowest smoking rate (<14%) in the world (spares the lungs) - the gov is very harsh on drugs/intoxicants of any kind (incl tobacco and alcohol)

Compare with China, Hubei - mostly still cold <10C, 60% males are smokers, massive pollution (both bad for lungs and has been shown in research to increase severity/mortality of the coronavirus), overcrowded defunct healthcare. The only from the Singapore list above that applies for China is #3 and #4 but that's not enough.

BTW Korea has 40% male smokers and it's still cold there, hence it spreads and there's a higher mortality, I speculate.

Now, Greece has 64% male smokers and Russia 70%. I predict higher spread & mortality. Especially in Russia until it gets warm. Vast distances between cities, less air travel (compared to EU) and low density could slow down spread, but who knows. Greece could be saved by the warmth but so high smoker population will likely have consequences if it spreads there.

Re Ireland - we're not very well placed - not very high % of smokers, air quality is OK (in Chinese standards) but we have asthma folks etc. #1-#4 doesn't apply for Ireland so not great.

Does smoking increase your chances of coronavirus? Or getting pneumonia?

wakka12

gmisk wrote: »

Does smoking increase your chances of coronavirus? Or getting pneumonia?

Presumably , it makes all your organs weaker and less capable of fighting disease

sReq | uTeK

Ironicname wrote: »

I'm flying to the UK on Friday and now I'm terrified of being in a plane and a train with people.

On top of that, we've just found out the other half is pregnant, and a girl in my daughter's class got home three weeks ago from a family holiday in China.

My nerves have really been rattled by this. I'm genuinely a nervous wreck.

Just flew around the world from NZ back to Ireland, over to the UK. Over to tenerife, back to San fran back to Ireland today. All in 6 weeks,dont let media sensationalism ruin your life. We will have lost a lot more people to the flu than Covid-19 when this thing dies down.

Drumpot

gmisk wrote: »

Does smoking increase your chances of coronavirus? Or getting pneumonia?

Actually I thought I heard in below conference that they found no direct link between smokers and increased chance of dieing (I think).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XF6AZv8P3i4

I know I keep putting this up, I think it really is great.

sReq | uTeK

How many deaths have you heard outside of China..I'd say more people have died from lightening strikes in the same period.

fritzelly

Korea not doing so well - meanwhile the US reporting first H2H case

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232833548882714625

wakka12

sReq | uTeK wrote: »

How many deaths have you heard outside of China..I'd say more people have died from lightening strikes in the same period.

Over 50 have died in the last 5 days

McGiver

wakka12 wrote:

Presumably , it makes all your organs weaker and less capable of fighting disease

Not only that.

The mechanism of action has been already described in few papers. Covid-19 requires certain receptors to enter the lung cells. These receptors are over-expressed (they have more of then than healthy people) in smokers, ex-smokers and people with otherwise damaged lungs (COPD, pollution etc.).

littlemac1980

Drumpot wrote: »

Actually I thought I heard in below conference that they found no direct link between smokers and increased chance of dieing (I think).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XF6AZv8P3i4

I know I keep putting this up, I think it really is great.

Yes, if that is the video of Dr. Bruce Aylward then he does indicate that they did not find a correlation between smoking and severe/fatal cases though it he didn’t dwell on or elaborate the point - and the way he refers to it almost suggests that they had expected to. Also I think he was referring to it in the context of the deaths of otherwise healthier younger people.

However, I’m biased, I smoke. So thatl may affect my interpretation.

McGiver

Drumpot wrote:

Actually I thought I heard in below conference that they found no direct link between smokers and increased chance of dieing (I think).

How old is that information? Based on research?

Also this is very broad statement even if true. It can still increase severity and/or susceptible based on the paper I read.

I can dig out the paper...