Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

fritzelly

McGiver wrote: »

Not only that.

The mechanism of action has been already described in few papers. Covid-19 requires certain receptors to enter the lung cells. These receptors are over-expressed (they have more of then than healthy people) in smokers, ex-smokers and people with otherwise damaged lungs (COPD, pollution etc.).

Explain Korea to me then

fritzelly

McGiver wrote: »

How old is that information? Based on research?

Also this is very broad statement even if true. It can still increase severity and/or susceptible based on the paper I read.

I can dig out the paper...

He said they found no link between smokers and critical/fatal patients - he literally got back from China 2 days ago

Call Me Jimmy

sReq | uTeK wrote: »

How many deaths have you heard outside of China..I'd say more people have died from lightening strikes in the same period.

I think you're misunderstanding the biggest threat tbh. This is a health infrastructure crippler. The amount of infections are so large that the percentage of people who will require hospitalisation will be enormous regardless of the death rate. The less good care available the more the death rate does go up.

Sorry I'll stop now, I've made the point enough.

sReq | uTeK

wakka12 wrote: »

Over 50 have died in the last 5 days

Of the 50 that died is there any analysis on their health to date. Are they over 70,are they of I'll health in the first place.

Of the 50 deaths I see that 20 are in Iran a country renowned for its lack of medical prestige. Again I'm not discrediting the virus in terms of its ability to spread. But with 75000 cases in a country of 1.5 billion and wuhan a city ot 20 million with 2500 deaths its not the harbinger of souls the media is making it out to be

littlemac1980

McGiver wrote: »

How old is that information? Based on research?

Yesterday. Based on actual evidence from China I believe. To provide context. He (Dr. Aylward) is the Head of the WHO team assigned to investigating and reporting on the virus outbreak (I think specifically focusing on China - as and when they were deployed at that time)

McGiver

littlemac1980 wrote:

Yesterday. Based on actual evidence from China I believe. To provide context. He (Dr. Aylward) is the Head of the WHO team assigned to investigating and reporting on the virus outbreak (I think specifically focusing on China - as and when they were deployed at that time)

Still not a research. It's a statement. Not a research methodology, in science terms it has no meaning unless they publish a paper and no one else proves otherwise. Which would mean we've contradictory papers with different/opposite conclusions (happens in science all the time ).

I'd err on the side of caution...

sReq | uTeK

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

I think you're misunderstanding the biggest threat tbh. This is a health infrastructure crippler. The amount of infections are so large that the percentage of people who will require hospitalisation will be enormous regardless of the death rate. The less good care available the more the death rate does go up.

Sorry I'll stop now, I've made the point enough.

Why it's a virus, take the necessary precautions and ride it out at home. It's a health cripple due to the mass hysteria its causing.

wakka12

sReq | uTeK wrote: »

Of the 50 that died is there any analysis on their health to date. Are they over 70,are they of I'll health in the first place.

Of the 50 deaths I see that 20 are in Iran a country renowned for its lack of medical prestige. Again I'm not discrediting the virus in terms of its ability to spread. But with 75000 cases in a country of 1.5 billion and wuhan a city ot 20 million with 2500 deaths its not the harbinger of souls the media is making it out to be

Wuhan is 11 million, the spread was significantly reduced by severe lockdowns. The death rate is wuhan is a very significant 3%. Yes internationally most have been over 60 or had underlying illness. Yes the media sensationalise but it's a valid concern , HSE said on the news tonight they expect it to be significantly worse than flu outbreak

fritzelly

From Hubei itself 409 cases and 26 deaths

Just shy of 8000 severe/critical cases

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232837657534849031

sReq | uTeK

wakka12 wrote: »

Wuhan is 11 million, the spread was significantly reduced by severe lockdowns. The death rate is wuhan is a very significant 3%. Yes internationally most have been over 60 or had underlying illness. Yes the media sensationalise but it's a valid concern , HSE said on the news tonight they expect it to be significantly worse than flu outbreak

Okay so not as close to it as you but the media portrays this as the end of time,yet with a population of 11 million 0.007% are infected and of those 0.007% there is a mortality rate of 3%.

Numbers dont lie and numbers are telling me a fit and able person of which the large global population are, will be just fine.

So in wuhan your chances from dying of Covid-19 are 0.000025%...........

Kermit.de.frog

fritzelly wrote: »

Korea not doing so well - meanwhile the US reporting first H2H case

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232833548882714625

Grim

fritzelly

sReq | uTeK wrote: »

Okay so not as close to it as you but the media portrays this as the end of time,yet with a population of 11 million 0.007% are infected and of those 0.007% there is a mortality rate of 3%.

Numbers dont lie and numbers are telling me a fit and able person of which the large global population are, will be just fine.

It's not over yet...

wakka12

sReq | uTeK wrote: »

Okay so not as close to it as you but the media portrays this as the end of time,yet with a population of 11 million 0.007% are infected and of those 0.007% there is a mortality rate of 3%.

Numbers dont lie and numbers are telling me a fit and able person of which the large global population are, will be just fine.

Yes and they were never the concern. 20% of Irish people are over 60, many more have underlying illnesses, for these groups the mortality rate is significant. And that's with good healthcare

sReq | uTeK

fritzelly wrote: »

It's not over yet...

But I've heard reports of containment and reduced cases which I suspect will increase the more the weather increases.

sReq | uTeK

wakka12 wrote: »

Yes and they were never the concern. 20% of Irish people are over 60, many more have underlying illnesses, for these groups the mortality rate is significant. And that's with good healthcare

And yet the evidence shows the vast majority of these 20% will never even come close to the virus...you've got a 0.000025% chance of dying from this thing at the epicentre, and yet here we are saying all 20%of Irish citizens are at risk.

Ridiculous scare mongering

fritzelly

sReq | uTeK wrote: »

But I've heard reports of containment and reduced cases which I suspect will increase the more the weather increases.

In China where you are allowed out once every 2 days in the quarantine zones

Let's see how it plays out in Europe - at the moment it's not looking good with more and more countries reporting first cases
Italy had a few cases til a week ago - now 470
Worst case scenario is that this becomes seasonal (very likely like the flu)and along with the flu will be crippling health systems around the world every year along with the health risks for older/immuno suppressed people

sReq | uTeK wrote: »

And yet the evidence shows the vast majority of these 20% will never even come close to the virus...you've got a 0.000025% chance of dying from this thing at the epicentre

That percentage is only based on current numbers - like I said this is still ongoing
Now China is forcing people back to work it could flare up again...it is not over for them, cases are still increasing every day

wakka12

sReq | uTeK wrote: »

And yet the evidence shows the vast majority of these 20% will never even come close to the virus...you've got a 0.000025% chance of dying from this thing at the epicentre, and yet here we are saying all 20%of Irish citizens are at risk.

Ridiculous scare mongering

The evidence does not show that only that number will come in contact with , it's just the number that already has. It spreads quickly, it has only emerged 7 weeks ago.

all about the mane

‘Treat this like you would treat the flu’ - the leader of the free world.

sdanseo

fritzelly wrote: »

In China where you are allowed out once every 2 days in the quarantine zones

Let's see how it plays out in Europe - at the moment it's not looking good with more and more countries reporting first cases
Italy had a few cases til a week ago - now 470
Worst case scenario is that this becomes seasonal (very likely like the flu)and along with the flu will be crippling health systems around the world every year along with the health risks for older/immuno suppressed people



That percentage is only based on current numbers - like I said this is still ongoing
Now China is forcing people back to work it could flare up again...it is not over for them, cases are still increasing every day

Even if China is undercooking BOTH the case and death rates by a factor of 10 there is stil a 1 in 4,000 chance of death from it - and that's if youre from Hubei.
The overwhelming likelihood is that the cases are being much more under-reported than the deaths as well.


Yes it's still spreading and yes China allowed this out of control. They could well eradicate it before the rest of us though, with their reaction - oh the irony if they stamp it out and then some entitled westerner re-imports it.

The panic and disruption will be much more significant than the death toll, unless it mutates and becomes exceptionally more virulent. Which of course is a possibility but no more so than a new virus emerging in the first place.

fritzelly

sdanseo wrote: »

there is stil a 1 in 4,000 chance of death from it - and that's if youre from Hubei.

Where are you getting the 1 in 4,000 chance from?

Flu infects around 20% of the planet every year - sometimes more, sometimes less
No one really knows the virulence of this yet - that could be the silent killer, some reports out of China that it is damaging but all should be taken with a pinch of salt for the time being.
We know flu - and for the majority has no long term detriment to people's health
Saw a report today of some one cleared of the virus (Chinese doctors again) and 8 days later they detected the virus again. No symptoms just showed up in the tests after not testing negative - could point to lots of carriers, as I said earlier it could all flare up again now in China but might be 2 weeks before we see it.
Lot's of unknowns at this point - not even 2 months into the virus

sdanseo

I forgot to add
Dr Campbell and others have mentioned the worst case scenario of health systems being totally overwhelmed and zero medical care being available
I believe we have seen that in Wuhan and what is needed to stem the tide.

Extrapolating, the worst case scenario for the rest of us / Ireland specifically would seem to be:
Disease spirals out of control
Total lockdown for 1-2 months with CFR 3-6% assuming those needing healthcare dont get it and no unreported cases
Exponentially higher case numbers in countries which refuse to lock down - Ireland will be one of these because of systemic incompetence in our government
Slower peak and slowdown of spread
But probably not any worse CFR than Wuhan - you can only reach the point of total health system saturation once, not many times)

Reassuring / optimistic notes would be that a massive number of non severe cases would be unreported meaning a far lower CFR in all cases, better awareness and preparedness in general as we have witnessed Wuhan go through it, and the fact that we are 2 months closer to vaccine or more effective treatment than China was when it started there.

tl;dr strap in, it wont be pretty, it will kill millions - but so does the flu. every. single. year. ( edit: 650k per year from wiki)
that's just reality.

sdanseo

fritzelly wrote: »

Where are you getting the 1 in 4,000 chance from?

Divide the reported number of deaths by the population of Hubei, multiply by 100/1 and then by ten.
Not a perfect science as some of those now infected will die sadly of course.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

But if you started cancelling football matches and music concerts etc, you'd end up having to cancel everything : cinemas, restaurants, offices, colleges, schools, public transport, you name it (that would be a quite insane overreaction).

No it would be sensible. What would be insane would be carrying on as normal with a disease that could severely limit human life expectancy if the reports are true that we could get it year after year.

Why take that chance?

Larbre34

A professor of public health from DCU was on the telly last night and he made a good job of explaining the risk versus seasonal flu.

1) It is more infectious than flu. (Something called R value, which is a measure of transmissiblity in the population. Measles, by far the worst airborne disease in the World has a value of 20, seasonal flu 1.3, Covid-19 appears to be >2.

2) its incubation period is much longer than flu, 10-14 days versus 2-5 days. This means you can go around infecting way more people before you know you're a carrier.

3) it seems the virus can exist longer in the open environment outside the body than Flu, making it a greater public health risk.

4) Humans have antibodies to influenza both acquired and inherited for centuries. We have no such tolerance for Covid-19, its brand spanking new and as such if are exposed you basically will get ill. As we know, this will remain mostly mild, but the conversion rate to complications like pneumonia in vulnerable groups becomes higher and more acute for that reason.

And so, for our fellow posters who bemoan scaremongering and overreaction, it boils down to this. Covid-19 can burn its way through a population in such a way as to cripple systems and services, health, policing, fire and rescue, power generation, logistics, schooling and childcare, transport etc. At the same time the illness is confining you to bed for a couple of days, it might be denying your elderly mother her chemo or giving pneumonia to your small child that hasn't outgrown his bronchitis, all because normal services are just not there.

Get it now?

maninasia

Ironicname wrote: »

I'm flying to the UK on Friday and now I'm terrified of being in a plane and a train with people.

On top of that, we've just found out the other half is pregnant, and a girl in my daughter's class got home three weeks ago from a family holiday in China.

My nerves have really been rattled by this. I'm genuinely a nervous wreck.

Wear a mask, wash your hands regularly, don't sit in confined spaces too long, if you are so worried just wear a mask all the time. Do some exercise to stop thinking about it too much. Flying to the UK is a very quick flight. If you want an excuse not to go anywhere just say you feel a cold coming on.

The person coming back from China would already be showing symptoms as the incubation period is 14 days , unless she went anywhere near the hotspot which is specifically Hubei province (and China is one of the world's biggest countries) the chance of her being infected is extremely low.

In fact it's Europeans who pose by far the biggest infection risk now to other Europeans. So it's time to stop focusing on Asian looking people!!!

Also the number of deaths amongst young people are supposedly miniscule with this thing (not that I say they shouldn't be monitored carefully and taught proper hygeine , this is indeed what is happening all over Asia right now with schoolchildren).

ceadaoin.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No it would be sensible. What would be insane would be carrying on as normal with a disease that could severely limit human life expectancy if the reports are true that we could get it year after year.

Why take that chance?

Well because eventually it will be "normal" and just part of the usual seasonal illnesses. Sucks but it looks inevitable at this stage. All indications are that the vast majority of people who get it will survive just fine. Do you suggest we cancel sporting events and concerts etc forever? Life has to go on

Graces7

conor05 wrote: »

Was thinking this morning where would the best place in Ireland, Europe and the world be to hide from Coronavirus?

A small offshore Irish island is perfect.

Graces7

bodhrandude wrote: »

Grace's place :D:D Only kidding Grace.

You are right! I moved here to escape from many things, including viruses... No spare rooms though or spare houses!

A woman working as a tour bus guide in Japan tested positive for the coronavirus for a second time, Osaka's prefectural government said on Wednesday (Feb 26), the first person in the country to be reinfected amid growing concerns about the spread of the infection. The woman, a resident of Osaka in western Japan, tested positive on Wednesday after developing a sore throat and chest pain, the prefectural government said in a statement, describing her as being in her 40s. She first tested positive in late January and was discharged from the hospital after recovering on Feb 1, according to the statemen 

Prof Philip Tierno Jr, professor of microbiology and pathology at New York University School of Medicine, said: "Once you have the infection, it could remain dormant and with minimal symptoms, and then you can get an exacerbation if it finds its way into the lungs." 
He said much remains unknown about the virus. "I'm not certain that this is not bi-phasic, like anthrax," he said, meaning the disease appears to go away before recurring.

Asked to comment on prospects for the Olympic Games going ahead in Tokyo this summer, Prof Tierno said: "The Olympics should be postponed if this continues... There are many people who don't understand how easy it is to spread this infection from one person to another."
Though a first in Japan, cases of second positive tests have been reported in China, where the disease originated late last year.  https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/japanese-woman-reinfected-with-coronavirus-weeks-after-initial-recovery

ceadaoin.

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Well because eventually it will be "normal" and just part of the usual seasonal illnesses. Sucks but it looks inevitable at this stage. All indications are that the vast majority of people who get it will survive just fine. Do you suggest we cancel sporting events and concerts etc forever? Life has to go on

I would like my parents around longer more than I give a damn about Missing gigs for a few months. If china is to be believed then containment works.

Do you not realize what having this would mean for over 60 year olds if it's part of an annual flu season?!