Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

I'm watching contagion. This might have been a bad idea.

Jude Laws character reminded me. Has that man in China who was filming the bodies in hospitals etc turned up yet? Sorry I can't remember his name.

fritzelly

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm watching contagion. This might have been a bad idea.

Jude Laws character reminded me. Has that man in China who was filming the bodies in hospitals etc turned up yet? Sorry I can't remember his name.

Nope, the two of them are still persona incognita

Pintman Paddy Losty

fritzelly wrote: »

10k in serious or critical condition - it's grand shure - you work for the HSE?

Well it's not exactly like the bubonic plague is it.

People are getting flu like symptoms for a few weeks then recovering. If you're old or infirm there's a chance you could die (like the normal flu). This is being hyped up by the media and scaremongers.

People 'prepping' like it's the end times. It's a bit much.

fritzelly

Deleted User wrote: »

WHO have said virus has peaked in China. If this is true, it's great news and a hammerblow to the doom mongers in this thread:)

Expect that to turn on its head when everyone is forced back to work - the numbers have dropped due to forced isolation and only to be expected. That's not how epidemic plateauing works but the WHO are saying it is
There are reports of hospitals in Beijing shutting down due to new cases

fritzelly

fritzelly wrote: »

I missed that in the WHO reports that you need multiple contacts to catch it

If his colleague who is in contact with had it then there is heightened chance he does to

2 other colleagues had also developed symptoms and will find out results tomorrow. He asked the prof should he still carry on with his talk on Wednesday and was told yeah !

Call Me Jimmy

all about the mane wrote: »

But people love a drama!

Xi: 'I'm bored, lock everyone in their homes and shutdown the economy'

Loves the drama!

citysights

[Deleted User] wrote: »

WHO have said virus has peaked in China. If this is true, it's great news and a hammerblow to the doom mongers in this thread:)

Certainly good news if true. Fingers crossed that this thing will dissipate soon, time will tell of course

Martina1991

Harry Freezing Bifocal wrote: »

They probably can't test him, I wouldn't be surprised if we actually have no test kits here for this.

Of course a comprehensive and honest communication from HSE might prove that wrong but there's been nothing solid forthcoming, probably a memo sent around internally and that's about it.

We do. Testing is being performed at the NVRL. This has already been covered in the previous thread. You can read about it here.
https://nvrl.ucd.ie/node/209

People are so quick to dismiss the HSE. Do people think the department of health are sitting around with their fingers in their ears.

No news is good news.

cnocbui

I was in Aldi today and I panicked. Instead of grabbing the usual 9 roll pack of loo roll, I went for the 24. Never done that before.

Mind, you, looking at the price per 100 sheets, It wasn't a bad move.

It's a good thing they didn't have oxygen bottles on special.

darjeeling

fritzelly wrote: »

And there is a third who are showing healthy acceptance of the news and playing it safe, hoping for the best and preparing for the worst

If the thread is depressing you stop reading it - being depressed affects your immune system

I hope more people will begin to see it this way.

Hearing people interviewed from the lockdown zone in Italy, there's a familiar ring to people's experiences.
They don't have enough information, they don't trust what the authorities are doing, and they don't really know what they should be doing themselves.

I don't know what measures the government here might put in place, so I can only hope that the right calls will be made.
As others have said, containment strategies such as those being elsewhere will likely not stop the spread, but will delay it, and that will save lives.
Any rapidly spreading epidemic here would overwhelm hospitals, and particularly intensive care units, so slowing it down will help.
Also, we will learn and get better at treating people as any epidemic progresses, and we might even have a vaccine before it is over.

As individuals at least we can do our bit to slow the spread by doing all the obvious sensible things -
stay home if you have symptoms, good hand washing & avoiding touching eyes/nose/mouth, consider working from home / limiting travel & socialising where practical & necessary,

One other I thing I expect we will see soon is the availability of antibody testing for rapid screening large numbers of people to see who has been exposed to the disease.
That will give us a much better idea of the size of the spread so far.
It might also be used in conjunction with the current RT-PCR tests for presence of active virus to give more accurate diagnoses.

fritzelly

fritzelly wrote: »

Expect that to turn on its head when everyone is forced back to work - the numbers have dropped due to forced isolation and only to be expected. That's not how epidemic plateauing works but the WHO are saying it is
There are reports of hospitals in Beijing shutting down due to new cases

If there was new cases and there were so serious. Why would a hospital shut down? Working in a hospital, you analyse and start treating no matter what has happened.

fritzelly

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Well it's not exactly like the bubonic plague is it.

People are getting flu like symptoms for a few weeks then recovering. If you're old or infirm there's a chance you could die (like the normal flu). This is being hyped up by the media and scaremongers.

It's currently more than 20 times deadlier than flu - got any elderly relatives?
And most of the comments about preparedness have been in relation to helping out their elderly parents et al

Call Me Jimmy

Deleted User wrote: »

WHO have said virus has peaked in China. If this is true, it's great news and a hammerblow to the doom mongers in this thread:)

I put a lot of faith in this to be true because the WHO would 100% be toast if it is any other way.

However, if true there is a very long way to go and am surprised you think it's smooth sailing from here all things considered.

fritzelly

Deleted User wrote: »

If there was new cases and there were so serious. Why would a hospital shut down? Working in a hospital, you analyse and start treating no matter what has happened.

Shutting down because there were no cases in the hospital - trying to prevent the spread (shutting down doesn't mean they actually close but stop all visitors, minimize intra ward infections etc)

fritzelly

fritzelly wrote: »

Expect that to turn on its head when everyone is forced back to work - the numbers have dropped due to forced isolation and only to be expected. That's not how epidemic plateauing works but the WHO are saying it is
There are reports of hospitals in Beijing shutting down due to new cases

Not going to lie. I'd trust the WHO more than a hysterical person on boards.ie

10000maniacs

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Yeah, the guy who contradicted me by saying it was another form of influenza in the previous thread got over 10 thanks.
It's as if everybody here is willing it to be the flu by the power of typing. A few sniffles for two weeks and all is well.
It's deadly serious, it's not the flu, and it's a hell of a lot worse then the flu.

fritzelly

Deleted User wrote: »

Not going to lie. I'd trust the WHO more than a hysterical person on boards.ie

We'll wait and see - how many cases outside China yesterday in populations of a smaller magnitude

One of the few YT channels I kinda trust for news from China - they do try and verify all the info
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nU3kmFjEuDI
(the texts are a few days old)

I don't understand.

How can we say it's peaked in China when half the country (the hard hit areas) are still in quarantine.

Surely we can't say for sure it's peaked until some time after the quarantine ends??

Great to see the numbers infected there coming down so much. I certainly hope it's peaked, I just can't understand how that could be said with certainty at this time.

Can someone explain??

fritzelly

fritzelly wrote: »

We'll wait and see - how many cases outside China yesterday in populations of a smaller magnitude

One of the few YT channels I kinda trust for news from China - they do try and verify all the info
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nU3kmFjEuDI
(the texts are a few days old)

God I remember when they accepted YouTube videos as references in my thesis. Those were the days.

saabsaab

Candamir wrote: »

We really need to stop the self flagellation here!
One of the guys colleagues tested positive (not multiple contacts) He discussed his exposure with the HSE, and they deemed the exposure not to be significant. So much so that they didn’t even ask him to self quarantine. Only he and the HSE know what that contact was, so it’s difficult for anyone to second guess.
They didn’t test him because see they deemed it unnecessary, and importantly, presumably a waste of resources.
On the one hand, a poster says Italy ran out of tests. On the other hand, we should be wasting tests on people we have no expectation of being positive??.

This is a brand new test, which seems to be throwing up a lot of false positives and negatives. It’s PCR, so probably requires a significant viral load to be positive. What are the chances of an asymptomatic, insignificant contact being positive inside a 2 week incubation period?

No one here knows the extent of our ‘preparedness’. But there are plans and protocols in place. The HSE aren’t just sitting on their arses and hoping for the best. They’re not wilfully not bothering to test either. That’s just nonsense talk.

In order of the above..

When exactly should a test be deemed necessary or not a waste of resources? Are there that many cases needing testing at this point that a known virus contactee is not worthy!
No expectation? There was a confirmed contact, are they already that overwhelmed with queries?
What are the chances of a positive? Well nobody really knows, all we can say now is he could be an asymptomatic carrier.

fritzelly

Deleted User wrote: »

God I remember when they accepted YouTube videos as references in my thesis. Those were the days.

Just remembered when Tedros was questioned about China making people go back to work in some of the badly hit areas. He stumbled over his answer basically saying he expects countries to do their best to protect their citizens - toeing the party line as always

Call Me Jimmy

fritzelly wrote: »

Just remembered when Tedros was questioned about China making people go back to work in some of the badly hit areas. He stumbled over his answer basically saying he expects countries to do their best to protect their citizens - toeing the party line as always

There won't be any ambiguity about any claims of people going back to work so we'll see pretty soon.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

God I remember when they accepted YouTube videos as references in my thesis. Those were the days.

Maybe you could answer my question as you seem confident in that statement.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don't understand.

How can we say it's peaked in China when half the country (the hard hit areas) are still in quarantine.

Surely we can't say for sure it's peaked until some time after the quarantine ends??

Great to see the numbers infected there coming down so much. I certainly hope it's peaked, I just can't understand how that could be said with certainty at this time.

Can someone explain??

Akrasia

There are a lot of people on this thread who think Climate Scientists are ‘alarmists’ saying that we should all start panic buying and preparing for the worst...

A virus that we. An almost certainly cure within a year or so is a disaster but climate change that will have long term irreversible consequences is all just alarmism

fritzelly

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232104784381042694

In Hubei itself

New Deaths - 68
New Confirmed - 499 (this is only coronary pneumonia)

Total Serious/Critical - 8,675‬

3 deaths outside Hubei and 9 new cases
Confused about the new confirmed cases - they are only counting cases that are at that point in the infection. Don't remember them saying that yesterday (will have to check but heading to the bar now)

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Maybe you could answer my question as you seem confident in that statement.

If you contain the spread of the virus. The hospitals don't get overwhelmed so people can be treated effectively. It reduces the burden on the health-care system.

fritzelly

fritzelly wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232104784381042694

In Hubei itself

New Deaths - 68
New Confirmed - 499 (this is only coronary pneumonia)

Total Serious/Critical - 8,675‬

3 deaths outside Hubei and 9 new cases
Confused about the new confirmed cases - they are only counting cases that are at that point in the infection. Don't remember them saying that yesterday (will have to check but heading to the bar now)

I'm not familiar with the term coronary pneumonia. Does this involve mitral regurgitation or do you mean it causes acute cardiac syndrome secondary to the infection?

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If you contain the spread of the virus. The hospitals don't get overwhelmed so people can be treated effectively. It reduces the burden on the health-care system.

But what's to stop the spread picking up again when the quarantine ends?

Kermit.de.frog

It is pointless posting China's figures unfortunately. The CCP decides what the narrative is and has done from the start.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

But what's to stop the spread picking up again when the quarantine ends?

Theory is that if you are closer to high numbers of patients with corona virus. You get a higher viral load leading to worse outcomes.

Here's a paper that explains it simply enough.