Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

BanditLuke

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It shows how incredulous China's figures are as well. Even if you stretched yourself to believe SK has more new cases than China due to containment measures what happens when the factories and cities reopen?

The figures are patently absurd. SK has proper testing, the most comprehensive in the world and an open democracy. Much more valuable in terms of a fair representation.

China will do anything it can now to protect it's economy including blatant falsehoods. I'd well believe a lot of the theories going around about more than 10k dead.

First Up

I have a trip to Asia in a few weeks. No cases where I'm going (yet) but I will transit through Abu Dhabi or Dubai so I'll certainly be exposed.

Face masks are hard to find at the moment but are they any defence against catching it? I always thought they just stopped people spreading it.

Rob A. Bank

YFlyer wrote: »

He had gutted the CDC. A lot of kissing butts on the news conference.

Trump spent the past 2 years slashing the government agencies responsible for handling the coronavirus outbreak

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-cuts-programs-responsible-for-fighting-coronavirus-2020-2?r=US&IR=T

President Donald Trump insisted on Tuesday that the coronavirus, known as COVID-19 virus, is under control because China is "working very hard" to contain its spread.

The president's comments are at odds with reality. The same day, the CDC announced that it expected the virus to spread enough within the US to cause a "disruption to everyday life."

The Trump administration has also spent the past several years dismantling the very government programs responsible for combatting a global health crisis.

The neo-liberal agenda of ‘deregulation’ and ‘low tax’ ‘small government’ has caused a chronic under funding of public health services in many countries.

Neo-Liberal governments have also reduced their contributions to the World health Organization, the organization capable of surveillance for impending public health emergencies and coordinating meaningful responses to global health threats

The money they should have spent dwarfs into insignificance, when you estimate the trillions which this pandemic will cost and of course the lives lost.

You reap what you sow !

Cal04

Would you go to Germany today, the capital

Kermit.de.frog

BanditLuke wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-two-people-who-returned-from-italy-and-tenerife-test-positive-in-uk-11944283

Oh dear

Be surprising if we go 24 more hours without a confirmed case.

Cal04

Would you go to Germany today, one child with asthma

Sigma101

A couple of years ago BBC4 did a modelling exercise to understand the impact of a pandemic like this in the UK. They found that it would infect 2/3 of the population. This was a realistic scenario using transmission rates similar to Covid-19. Their findings are published in an open-access academic journal paper here.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436518300306?via%3Dihub

A similar scenario in Ireland would see over 3 million people infected within a year. Given what’s known about Covid-19 at this stage, 650,000 people (nearly 20%) would therefore have severe symptoms. 160,000 (5%) would be critical and would require intensive care, and over 60,000 people would die. It’s worth noting again that epidemiologists are beginning to form the view that this pandemic could be an annual occurrence.

The study also found that preventive measures such as hand sanitising could slow the rate of infection and reduce the numbers infected by a third.

yosemitesam1

Is there any news of where movement restrictions are in place, is there any systems in place to allow farmers etc carry out work with some sort normality?

Kermit.de.frog

First Up wrote: »

Face masks are hard to find at the moment but are they any defence against catching it? I always thought they just stopped people spreading it.

The latter AFAIK and pretty pointless for the former though if it makes people feel better...

BanditLuke

Cal04 wrote: »

Would you go to Germany today, one child with asthma

Absolutely not a chance. Please don't take the risk with someone with a condition unless it is completely unavoidable.

Ninthlife

Can someone PM me when its time to panic....thanks

tillyfilly

Sigma101 wrote: »

A couple of years ago BBC4 did a modelling exercise to understand the impact of a pandemic like this in the UK. They found that it would infect 2/3 of the population. This was a realistic scenario using transmission rates similar to Covid-19. Their findings are published in an open-access academic journal paper here.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436518300306?via%3Dihub

A similar scenario in Ireland would see over 3 million people infected within a year. Given what’s known about Covid-19 at this stage, 650,000 people (nearly 20%) would therefore have severe symptoms. 160,000 (5%) would be critical and would require intensive care, and over 60,000 people would die. It’s worth noting again that epidemiologists are beginning to form the view that this pandemic could be an annual occurrence.

The study also found that preventive measures such as hand sanitising could slow the rate of infection and reduce the numbers infected by a third.

its around now a hermitage would be handy

pc7

I would like to see the HSE cancel all non necessary surgery's now, keeps as many beds free, deep clean them all now, have spaces set up so when this kicks off (which it will we can handle the wave). Get staff usually involved in those surgery's up to speed on dealing with something so infectious (if they aren't already), how to trace and track contacts etc. Same with porters etc, have the plan and protocols ready, where are spare beds, how are the cleaned/disposed of etc. Start looking at other spaces that can be used to house sick people if numbers grow too big. This is coming and the fear I have is that I don't know that we (as a country are ready), I feel there should be daily briefings from the government, let us know they are on this. The parties should stop talking sh1te saying I won't go in with this one, that one and work together during this unprecedented time we are about to face.

If we are lucky and deaths are low, think about even a single death from corona, no laid out to mourn and say goodbye as we do here, no consoling, hugging, comforting each other due to risk that close members are carriers. It compounds the loss imo.

Hector Savage

Bad news bad news bad news .... it's like death by a 1000 cuts ...

Anything positive at all ?

BanditLuke

Hector Savage wrote: »

Bad news bad news bad news .... it's like death by a 1000 cuts ...

Anything positive at all ?

It seems to not effect children unless they suffer from a pre existing condition.

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

2.8% male compared to 1.7% female.

Typical men, "I'm grand".

Years of sex selective abortions in China has led to far more men than women in some age groups. Not sure if that cohort is old enough to skew the stats?

dominatinMC

Hector Savage wrote: »

Bad news bad news bad news .... it's like death by a 1000 cuts ...

Anything positive at all ?

It's not been confirmed here...yet!


Although I'm not naive enough to believe it isn't here already

Hector Savage

So untill yesterday the growth rate was slowing in China, but apparently it's back up ?

super_furry

Hector Savage wrote: »

So untill yesterday the growth rate was slowing in China, but apparently it's back up ?

Honestly given the nature of the Chinese state, it's hard to believe anything 'official' from them.

wadacrack

Good listen. Very informative doctor.

https://twitter.com/Shaughnessy119/status/1232797722371076096

MarkY91

MarkY91 wrote: »

They were grown adults. And they weren't children anime characters. Nothing that will interest a child. They wore it as a fashion accessory. Attention seeking. This was a month ago when the virus was only in China ffs....

Tell us more about this attention seeking.

Hector Savage

Hector Savage wrote: »

Bad news bad news bad news .... it's like death by a 1000 cuts ...

Anything positive at all ?

The positive is that Ireland is an island and could limit cases because of this......ahem

ThePopehimself

Cal04 wrote: »

Would you go to Germany today, one child with asthma

No. There's no way I'd take that chance.

Loafing Oaf

Probably too late to make much of a difference with this epidemic, but before the next one like this hits, the powers that be will need to be drawing up a gameplan for severe restriction of movements between countries at an early stage in its development.


should be beamed around the world

VinLieger

Deleted User wrote: »

The positive is that Ireland is an island and could limit cases because of this......ahem

Yeah if we had closed our airports in the middle of January maybe, there's no question its here now imo

pheasant tail

Cal04 wrote: »

Would you go to Germany today, the capital

I’ve been in Berlin for the last week, attending the Berlin film festival, people here from all over the world with over 400,000 tickets sold. A lot of travel involved in relation to that for people when they start heading back home! No signs of any changes out here yet anyway.

VinLieger

VinLieger wrote: »

Yeah if we had closed our airports in the middle of January maybe, there's no question its here now imo

Agree, however we can still limit the damage.

DrumSteve

I've taken the figures from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries and removed any reference to China and Iran (as I cannot judge their figures to be correct) to get a better understanding of the rates:

Country, New Cases Deaths New Deaths Recovered Critical
S. Korea 1,766 505 13 1 24 18
Diamond Princess 705 4 10 36
Italy 470 12 3 35
Japan 207 35 4 1 32 13
Singapore 93 62 7
Hong Kong 89 2 18 6
USA 60 6
Kuwait 43 17
Thailand 40 22 2
Bahrain 33
Taiwan 32 1 5 1
Germany 27 15 2
Australia 23 15
Malaysia 22 20
France 18 2 11 1
Vietnam 16 16
U.K. 15 2 8
Spain 14 1 2
U.A.E. 13 3 2
Canada 12 3
Macao 10 6
Iraq 6 1
Oman 4
Philippines 3 1 2
Croatia 3
India 3 3
Austria 2
Finland 2 1
Israel 2
Lebanon 2
Pakistan 2
Russia 2 2
Sweden 2
Switzerland 2 1
Afghanistan 1
Algeria 1
Belgium 1 1
Brazil 1
Cambodia 1 1
Denmark 1 1
Egypt 1 1
Estonia 1 1
Georgia 1
Greece 1
North Macedonia 1
Nepal 1 1
Norway 1
Romania 1
Sri Lanka 1 1
Total 3,758 564 39 2 294 123


Based on the above, the CFR (so far) is 1% though I would expect this to go up.

The 8% CFR as it currently stands, I'm not so sure that is correct as we don't know for sure whats happening in China and Iran. China says its coming down, but it's hard to tell accurately where they started from. Though it appears what they are doing seems to be working to bring it down.

There are some reasons though to remain calm about this while taking it seriously:

- Most of us are going to get this at some point, I've accepted that at this stage.
- It's not going to be pleasant but even if your in the oldest age bracket you've got an 85% chance of survival.
- If your under 50, you've got a 99% chance of survival.
- Kids don't seem to succumb to this at all, which is great news.

The key thing that will enable high survival rates, is maintaining the ability for potentially large quantities of people to access ICU and medical facilities should they get critical.

I think, personally, more should be done to advise people what specifically qualifies as "Critical" to help identify these issues earlier.

Loafing Oaf

Wow Diamond Princess is now it's own country:p

Is this its national anthem?

PhoenixParker

DrumSteve wrote: »

I've taken the figures from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries and removed any reference to China and Iran (as I cannot judge their figures to be correct) to get a better understanding of the rates:

Country, New Cases Deaths New Deaths Recovered Critical
S. Korea 1,766 505 13 1 24 18
Diamond Princess 705 4 10 36
Italy 470 12 3 35
Japan 207 35 4 1 32 13
Singapore 93 62 7
Hong Kong 89 2 18 6
USA 60 6
Kuwait 43 17
Thailand 40 22 2
Bahrain 33
Taiwan 32 1 5 1
Germany 27 15 2
Australia 23 15
Malaysia 22 20
France 18 2 11 1
Vietnam 16 16
U.K. 15 2 8
Spain 14 1 2
U.A.E. 13 3 2
Canada 12 3
Macao 10 6
Iraq 6 1
Oman 4
Philippines 3 1 2
Croatia 3
India 3 3
Austria 2
Finland 2 1
Israel 2
Lebanon 2
Pakistan 2
Russia 2 2
Sweden 2
Switzerland 2 1
Afghanistan 1
Algeria 1
Belgium 1 1
Brazil 1
Cambodia 1 1
Denmark 1 1
Egypt 1 1
Estonia 1 1
Georgia 1
Greece 1
North Macedonia 1
Nepal 1 1
Norway 1
Romania 1
Sri Lanka 1 1
Total 3,758 564 39 2 294 123


Based on the above, the CFR (so far) is 0.01% though I would expect this to go up.

The 8% CFR as it currently stands, I'm not so sure that is correct as we don't know for sure whats happening in China and Iran. China says its coming down, but it's hard to tell accurately where they started from. Though it appears what they are doing seems to be working.

39 deaths in 3758 is 1% not 0.01%