Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

retro:electro

Wasn’t there reports a few weeks ago that a woman carrying it in pregnancy had transmitted it to her baby once born? Does anyone know how the baby is doing since?

BanditLuke

BanditLuke wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-two-people-who-returned-from-italy-and-tenerife-test-positive-in-uk-11944283

Oh dear

For those that didn’t click link. This is straight from Uk.gov website

Two further patients in England have tested positive for COVID-19, bringing the total number of UK cases to 15.

The virus was passed on in Italy and Tenerife and the patients have been transferred to specialist NHS infection centres in Royal Liverpool Hospital and the Royal Free Hospital, London.

DrumSteve

PhoenixParker wrote: »

39 deaths in 3758 is 1% not 0.01%

Cheers, fixed that there.

Hector Savage

retro:electro wrote: »

Wasn’t there reports a few weeks ago that a woman carrying it in pregnancy had transmitted it to her baby once born? Does anyone know how the baby is doing since?

fully recovered.

0 Kids have died from this .

0 - it is the only thing keeping me from all out world war Z panic...

retro:electro

Hector Savage wrote: »

fully recovered.

0 Kids have died from this .

0 - it is the only thing keeping me from all out world war Z panic...

Oh that’s good to hear!

wylo

Time for a positive post:

Lowest Deaths in quite a while in China, Id been checking and usually by morning our time its at 50 or 60, was at 90 or 100/day a few days ago, its 32 now.

I feel even though its fair to say theyre responsible for creating the conditions for this to happen, its also fair to say the people living in the epicenter have taken one for the team (albeit not very voluntarily) to protect the rest of the country and world even.

Considering the virus was allowed to fester for weeks if not possibly months with no one having knowledge of it in a city of 11 million people then I think its fair to say when you step back from it the picture isnt as bad as it seems.

FWIW every day since this has started approx 3000 to 4000 people have died in car crashes. While Im not comparing them (before I get attacked), I am just pointing out the world is a huge place, there are 7 billion people going about their business every day and this is just a tiny tiny drop in the ocean of the goings on in the world. Travel and internet make it seem much smaller.

All that being said, I am totally in agreement with any shut downs or decisions that seem drastic because its those actions that keep this as a drop in the ocean rather than letting it spread more.

And finally its worth mentioning that we need to start considering alot of these actions anyway for the sake of reducing carbon emmissions. I would estimate, indirectly global warming has probably killed more people this year already. Obviously however that is simply impossible to quantify.

Loafing Oaf

Hector Savage wrote: »

fully recovered.

0 Kids have died from this .

0 - it is the only thing keeping me from all out world war Z panic...

I was wondering what my brother would do if his four-year-old started asking questions, thought he might tell him a little white lie about children not getting it, but seemingly...

Popeleo

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has expressed his intention to ask all elementary and high schools in Japan to temporarily close beginning March 2, a couple of weeks ahead of the spring break, due to the coronavirus.

- Breaking news, NHK aop.

josip

65535 wrote: »

A worldwide map of cases with deaths quoted also.

https://infographics.channelnewsasia.com/covid-19/map.html

Still quite a lot of European countries that haven't reported any cases.
These are all the ones with population > 2 million roughly in order of size.
I haven't gone too far east.

Poland
Netherlands
Czech Republic
Portugal
Hungary
Bulgaria
Serbia
Slovakia
Ireland
Bosnia
Albania
Lithuania
Slovenia

Popeleo

Popeleo wrote: »

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has expressed his intention to ask all elementary and high schools in Japan to temporarily close beginning March 2, a couple of weeks ahead of the spring break, due to the coronavirus.

- Breaking news, NHK aop.

I feel sorry for Japan. The last time the Olympics were due to be held there they didn’t happen because of the world war. Now, I know they were bold back then but if it’s cancelled again will be a bummer.

MarkY91

one armed dwarf wrote: »

I would wear an anime mask. **** it I'd wear a hentai mask if it was the right spec

My point was that they wore it to look cool. Not for any health reasons. Again, this was a month ago. Back when coronavirus was just in China.

Poor_old_gill

DrumSteve wrote: »

I've taken the figures from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries and removed any reference to China and Iran (as I cannot judge their figures to be correct) to get a better understanding of the rates:

Country, New Cases Deaths New Deaths Recovered Critical
S. Korea 1,766 505 13 1 24 18
Diamond Princess 705 4 10 36
Italy 470 12 3 35
Japan 207 35 4 1 32 13
Singapore 93 62 7
Hong Kong 89 2 18 6
USA 60 6
Kuwait 43 17
Thailand 40 22 2
Bahrain 33
Taiwan 32 1 5 1
Germany 27 15 2
Australia 23 15
Malaysia 22 20
France 18 2 11 1
Vietnam 16 16
U.K. 15 2 8
Spain 14 1 2
U.A.E. 13 3 2
Canada 12 3
Macao 10 6
Iraq 6 1
Oman 4
Philippines 3 1 2
Croatia 3
India 3 3
Austria 2
Finland 2 1
Israel 2
Lebanon 2
Pakistan 2
Russia 2 2
Sweden 2
Switzerland 2 1
Afghanistan 1
Algeria 1
Belgium 1 1
Brazil 1
Cambodia 1 1
Denmark 1 1
Egypt 1 1
Estonia 1 1
Georgia 1
Greece 1
North Macedonia 1
Nepal 1 1
Norway 1
Romania 1
Sri Lanka 1 1
Total 3,758 564 39 2 294 123


Based on the above, the CFR (so far) is 1% though I would expect this to go up.

The 8% CFR as it currently stands, I'm not so sure that is correct as we don't know for sure whats happening in China and Iran. China says its coming down, but it's hard to tell accurately where they started from. Though it appears what they are doing seems to be working to bring it down.

There are some reasons though to remain calm about this while taking it seriously:

- Most of us are going to get this at some point, I've accepted that at this stage.
- It's not going to be pleasant but even if your in the oldest age bracket you've got an 85% chance of survival.
- If your under 50, you've got a 99% chance of survival.
- Kids don't seem to succumb to this at all, which is great news.

The key thing that will enable high survival rates, is maintaining the ability for potentially large quantities of people to access ICU and medical facilities should they get critical.

I think, personally, more should be done to advise people what specifically qualifies as "Critical" to help identify these issues earlier.

Typical Ireland- bottom of the Corona virus league.

We need to use the grandparent rule and get in some lads from South Korea, Italy or the Diamond Princess

gozunda

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I was wondering what my brother would do if his four-year-old started asking questions, thought he might tell him a little white lie about children not getting it, but seemingly...

Children have been infected. Thankfully no reported deaths.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/children-faq.html

DrumSteve

As an aside looking at these figures:

CLOSED CASES

35,834
Cases which had an outcome:

33,026 (92%)
Recovered / Discharged

2,808 (8%)
Deaths

That 8% is rounded up, CFR currently standing on 7.83% (inclusive of China).

One thing that has entered my mind, as regards America specifically, is how their health care industry will deal with it; especially for people without insurance?

Popeleo

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I feel sorry for Japan. The last time the Olympics were due to be held there they didn’t happen because of the world war. Now, I know they were bold back then but if it’s cancelled again will be a bummer.

They had their genocide timeout, but then held the Olympics in 1964.

Macy0161

As a lay person... If people can be carries and asymptomatic, or have it and think it’s just a common cold/ virus/ flu, how does that affect the stated mortality rates? The mortality rate is, presumably, based opon known cases? For which they must have either been in a known risk area or sick enough to be tested (so maybe underlying issues).

Could actual mortality rates be a lot lower, given people are seemingly carrying it, and spreading infection, without self reporting (going on what's happened in the european cases)?

Graces7

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The latter AFAIK and pretty pointless for the former though if it makes people feel better...

So why are all the workers/helpers around the world wearing them?

laurah591

Standman wrote: »

There seems to be a lot of conflicting information going around about hand sanitizer... From what I've read, if the sanitizer contains a high percentage of alcohol it will kill some viruses. Do we know if it successfully kills this virus? Also some sanitizers mightn't even contain alcohol.

I read somewhere early days (cannot locate source so take with pinch of salt)... hand sanitisers needed to be at least 60% alcohol content to be effective against corona virus and lots of hand sanitisers contain no alcohol just anti bacterial gel which is useless.

We bought a few from boots a couple of weeks ago (only have 57% ethanol) which won't do the trick, also picked up a few Milton which seem to be 80%. So if rushing out to buy hand sanitisers check the ingredients and make sure your buying the most effective ... higher the alcohol content the better

Popeleo

Popeleo wrote: »

They had their genocide timeout, but then held the Olympics in 1964.

Oh. Cheers I learn summat new every day.

Beasty

Ninthlife wrote: »

Can someone PM me when its time to panic....thanks

Not allowed before the next thread....

Graces7

Cal04 wrote: »

Would you go to Germany today, one child with asthma

No; not a chance. Why take a risk?

wadacrack

Macy0161 wrote: »

As a lay person... If people can be carries and asymptomatic, or have it and think it’s just a common cold/ virus/ flu, how does that affect the stated mortality rates? The mortality rate is, presumably, based opon known cases? For which they must have either been in a known risk area or sick enough to be tested (so maybe underlying issues).

Could actual mortality rates be a lot lower, given people are seemingly carrying it, and spreading infection, without self reporting (going on what's happened in the european cases)?

China dont count this FYI. They had people test positive with no symptoms and regarded as negatives. Some symptoms have to be present

EltonJohn69

MarkY91 wrote: »

My point was that they wore it to look cool. Not for any health reasons. Again, this was a month ago. Back when coronavirus was just in China.

Nothing wrong with looking cool 😎

ardinn

MarkY91 wrote: »

My point was that they wore it to look cool. Not for any health reasons. Again, this was a month ago. Back when coronavirus was just in China.

Who honestly gives a flying fúck??

Graces7

tillyfilly wrote: »

its around now a hermitage would be handy

Indeed it is! Very handy! Surrounded by ocean!

SeaBreezes

There's one thing that's bothering me.
On Newstalk just there they said it's just the flu. 80% is mild, 15% will be more severe but won't need hospitalisation and 3-5% need hospitalisation.

My understanding was the 15% DID require oxygen/ventilation? And the WHO Bruce Ayleward said time was of the essence if you were in that 15%?

Did I pick it up wrong?

I'm getting angrier and angrier.
It's like old people don't matter.
Not at all worried for me or my son but really don't want to give it to my mum.
We did more for cattle in foot and mouth. It's shocking really the apathy.

Though the lady in her forties back in hospital with relapse/reinfection might focus people's attention.

I KNOW there's no stopping the bug but we can slow it down. Give time for the people who need hospital assistance to get it.

For Christ sake, curtailing a few parties and games and holidays for a while to allow our older generation a few more years on the earth isn't a big ask really is it?

Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of 2.6 this has a suggested rate of 2.3 and so far they think the number will be higher in the west.
And we're still learning about this bug. Does it stay in the system? Reinfect? Relapse?
First collapse in a shopping centre in Italy.
Just like those early twitter videos from China.

And drumpot your stats are great, thank you.
But if there's a 3-6 week lag to case closure. It's very early days yet.

And I swear. If I hear one more brain dead public health official say it's just the flu. I might just implode.
:-)

Sigma101

wylo wrote: »

Time for a positive post:

Lowest Deaths in quite a while in China, Id been checking and usually by morning our time its at 50 or 60, was at 90 or 100/day a few days ago, its 32 now.

I feel even though its fair to say theyre responsible for creating the conditions for this to happen, its also fair to say the people living in the epicenter have taken one for the team (albeit not very voluntarily) to protect the rest of the country and world even.

Considering the virus was allowed to fester for weeks if not possibly months with no one having knowledge of it in a city of 11 million people then I think its fair to say when you step back from it the picture isnt as bad as it seems.

FWIW every day since this has started approx 3000 to 4000 people have died in car crashes. While Im not comparing them (before I get attacked), I am just pointing out the world is a huge place, there are 7 billion people going about their business every day and this is just a tiny tiny drop in the ocean of the goings on in the world. Travel and internet make it seem much smaller.

All that being said, I am totally in agreement with any shut downs or decisions that seem drastic because its those actions that keep this as a drop in the ocean rather than letting it spread more.

And finally its worth mentioning that we need to start considering alot of these actions anyway for the sake of reducing carbon emmissions. I would estimate, indirectly global warming has probably killed more people this year already. Obviously however that is simply impossible to quantify.

I agree that the slowdown in the rate of infections in China at this stage must be seen as a positive. We should examine closely how they managed this and see which measures we could realistically roll out in European democracies.

However, it can’t emphasised enough that we’re only at the very, very early stages of this. Up to two thirds of a population can be infected in the first round, and experts are not optimistic that the spread can be contained. At the moment only 0.005% of the population in China are confirmed to be infected. In Italy it’s 0.008%. In Korea it’s 0.0035%. We have a long, long way to go.

Indestructable

You can take Poland off that list, first case there in Lodz.

josip

Cal04 wrote: »

Would you go to Germany today, the capital

Yes.

Cal04 wrote: »

Would you go to Germany today, one child with asthma

No.

GooglePlus

Expect a case announcement today after lunch.