Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

BanditLuke

Mic 1972 wrote: »

People can work form home these days, I haven't been at the office in 2 weeks
A lot of companies can implement that. Other types of jobs will go ahead as normal, if you can't lock down everybody at least you can limit the spread

The vast vast majority of people can't work from home and will ignore self isolation warnings.

blanch152

Mic 1972 wrote: »

People can work form home these days, I haven't been at the office in 2 weeks
A lot of companies can implement that. Other types of jobs will go ahead as normal, if you can't lock down everybody at least you can limit the spread

The type of people who can't work from home - waiters, shop assistants, chefs, cleaners, receptionists, medical staff, emergency services - are precisely the type that are most likely to spread the disease.

GooglePlus

Got 10 3m masks for 40e including delivery. Probably a bit steep but the best I could find from an Irish company.

Nijmegen

Oh not again with the death rate stats. Read mod OP. To an extent it doesn't matter if it's 1%, 10% or 0.1%. If it's highly infectious, which we know it is, it will kill a large number of people who would have otherwise lived if it goes uncontained. Lets go with that.

More interesting then is the spread. Given the Chinese suppressed so much data at the start, we probably don't have a reliable picture of how we can model its spread. So +144 cases in S Korea, +18% day on day. +54 in Italy, +23% day on day. Good, bad or indifferent I have no idea. Like, when do you know (relatively speaking) that you've got the outbreak in northern Italy beat? That's something that would be interesting to know. Then I'd say we can tell if you get a super spreader in a region, OK, this is an X weeks containment and we should top out at Y cases and then we're good versus Wuhan where it was allowed go like wildfire, and perhaps now Iran. Repeat until a cure is created.

Rob A. Bank

A lot of dispute here about the accuracy, reliability and significance of the figures available to date.

However we do have accurate Japanese Ministry of Health figures for that floating Petri Dish known as the cruise liner Diamond Princess …. 3,063 were tested with 634* testing positive.

* includes 328 asymptomatic cases

That scary asterisked figure plus the fact that asymptomatic infected people can spread the virus, means that all the temperature checking etc. at airports/borders is probably useless for detecting over half of those who are infected.

Perhaps it is not surprising that they have been unable to trace the index cases in Italy and Iran also that the illness has popped up in 36 countries so far.

Doctor Jimbob

Mic 1972 wrote: »

People can work form home these days, I haven't been at the office in 2 weeks
A lot of companies can implement that. Other types of jobs will go ahead as normal, if you can't lock down everybody at least you can limit the spread

I'm not one of those very concerned about the virus, but it annoys me that many companies never seem willing to let people work from home until the last minute in situations like this. It seems like an easily implemented solution that would help at least somewhat with stopping the spread.

BanditLuke

Things look like they are out of control in Iran

https://twitter.com/eha_news/status/1232270017439371265

laurah591

turbbo wrote: »

Stop comparing influenza with nCoV, it's ridiculous, two different categories and if nCoV would be as widespread as the influenza is, it would kill at least 60 to 100M per year. They're different

I'm not getting into stats.... but i dont think you have any grounds to make that statement ....

odyssey06

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

That scary asterisked figure plus the fact that asymptomatic infected people can spread the virus, means that all the temperature checking etc. at airports/borders is probably useless for detecting over half of those who are infected.

And the HSE tells you go about your business unless you feel unwell.
https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/coronavirus-advice-recently-in-china.html

Tenzor07

GooglePlus wrote: »

Got 10 3m masks for 40e including delivery. Probably a bit steep but the best I could find from an Irish company.

Dust masks used by construction workers won't protect you from anything, apart from breathing in dust from working on a building site.

Call Me Jimmy

Nijmegen wrote: »

Oh not again with the death rate stats. Read mod OP. To an extent it doesn't matter if it's 1%, 10% or 0.1%. If it's highly infectious, which we know it is, it will kill a large number of people who would have otherwise lived if it goes uncontained. Lets go with that.

More interesting then is the spread. Given the Chinese suppressed so much data at the start, we probably don't have a reliable picture of how we can model its spread. So +144 cases in S Korea, +18% day on day. +54 in Italy, +23% day on day. Good, bad or indifferent I have no idea. Like, when do you know (relatively speaking) that you've got the outbreak in northern Italy beat? That's something that would be interesting to know. Then I'd say we can tell if you get a super spreader in a region, OK, this is an X weeks containment and we should top out at Y cases and then we're good versus Wuhan where it was allowed go like wildfire, and perhaps now Iran. Repeat until a cure is created.

WHO promised to answer what containment measures they recommend after skipping the question yesterday. I think it's the guy who's been looking at the China stuff who will be speaking about it. Since they praise China's effort, they should have some good data on how severe quarantine measures effect spread.

Akrasia

GooglePlus wrote: »

Do you know where would be best to get the masks?

Might get a few myself in the likely event that it lands on our shores, now that it's spreading fast within the EU.

The principle benefit of the mask, is to keep your hands away from your mouth and nose. And even this won't work if the mask is stuffy and you keep having to move it to get comfortable

You're as well off wearing disposable gloves and changing them regularly, or simply remembering to wash your hands frequently using a careful methodical technique

wakka12

https://apps.derstandard.at/privacywall/story/2000115000698/erster-positiver-test-auf-coronavirus-in-tirol?ref=article
First two positive cases in Austria

BanditLuke

blanch152 wrote: »

The type of people who can't work from home - waiters, shop assistants, chefs, cleaners, receptionists, medical staff, emergency services - are precisely the type that are most likely to spread the disease.

And exactly the type who won't get paid when out sick. Would be very proactive of the government here to tell people returning from regions with high infection rates that if they self isolate they will cover the cost of wages if they are left out of pocket so people don't go into workplaces, on public transport etc.. That would require a massive change in the Irish governments reactive thought process though.

turbbo

laurah591 wrote: »

I'm not getting into stats.... but i dont think you have any grounds to make that statement ....

You are missing my point. I'm not surprised.

Sigma101

Worldometers showing first case in Croatia now too. Can't find anything about it in the mainstream media yet.

pc7

BanditLuke wrote: »

Things look like they are out of control in Iran

https://twitter.com/eha_news/status/1232270017439371265

I shouldnt laugh but the headline reads like a Waterford Whisper

TomSweeney

I heard Croatia have a case too ... Sky News

Kermit.de.frog

BanditLuke wrote: »

Things look like they are out of control in Iran

https://twitter.com/eha_news/status/1232270017439371265

loLoLOL!!!!!!!!!!!

Kermit.de.frog

wakka12 wrote: »

https://apps.derstandard.at/privacywall/story/2000115000698/erster-positiver-test-auf-coronavirus-in-tirol?ref=article
First two positive cases in Austria

Austria will close the border with Italy now.

Graces7

Online rte news page article on a Public Health team meeting today; cannot link from here so could someone please

A lot of info

Mic 1972

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I'm not one of those very concerned about the virus, but it annoys me that many companies never seem willing to let people work from home until the last minute in situations like this. It seems like an easily implemented solution that would help at least somewhat with stopping the spread.

Exaclty, I don't how many people currently hold an office job in Dublin, I would imagine in the thousands. That's a lot of people who get the bus everyday, share an open plan for 8 hours with hundreds of others, shake hands with people who just landed from other cities. It is not a small portion of the problem

random_banter

Haven't seen this quoted in this thread yet but apologies if it has been. The Guardian posted an update to their live blog re: Ireland. Not huge news but maybe after this afternoon we will see more advice on flights etc and perhaps they will start testing as people arrive here? (Going by what the plan is in the UK...)

---
Measures announced to delay arrival of coronavirus in Ireland
Rory Carroll

Irish authorities are expected to announce more stringent measures against coronavirus on Tuesday in an effort to delay what is considered its almost inevitable arrival in Ireland.

The National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) is to meet this afternoon to review preparations and recommendations related to travel and mass gatherings.

The outbreak in Italy has significantly increased the chance of a coronavirus case reaching Ireland, the health minister, Simon Harris, said on Monday. Ryanair shares tumbled 13% on the ISEQ index of Irish shares on Monday.

A Pro 14 rugby game between Ulster and Benetton, which was due to take place in the northern Italian city of Treviso on Saturday, has been postponed.

Ireland’s Six Nations game against Italy at Dublin’s Aviva stadium on 7 March – which is expected to draw up to 5,000 Italian visitors - is still scheduled to go ahead. That may change depending on whether Italy manages to contain its outbreak.

Organisers of an international James Joyce symposium in June in Trieste, northern Italy, told the Times they planned to go ahead in hope that by then the outbreak will be contained.

gozunda

BanditLuke wrote: »

Things look like they are out of control in Iran

https://twitter.com/eha_news/status/1232270017439371265

Iran's Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi tests positive for #coronavirus, ILNA News Agency says

That was the same Minister who stated that:

In response, Iran’s Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi denied the figures and said he would resign if Amirabadi Farhani's numbers were correct. “If the number of coronavirus victims in Qom is a quarter of what media outlets are reporting, I will resign. The figure is incorrect, and we are sure of our statistics,” he said.

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2020/02/24/Iranian-MP-50-dead-from-coronavirus-in-Qom-Health-Minister-to-blame-ILNA.html

brevity

20 Pack N95 Dust Mask Disposable, Respirator Face Mouth Masks with Exhalation Valve 5 Layer Activated Carbon Air Filter Adjustable Nosepiece Unisex Fold Flat Dust Masks https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B07PNKHJ6C/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_i_EQqvEb409JGQ1

Nijmegen

wakka12 wrote: »

https://apps.derstandard.at/privacywall/story/2000115000698/erster-positiver-test-auf-coronavirus-in-tirol?ref=article
First two positive cases in Austria

Wonder where? If Tirol (as I make out from the URL) then likely Italy.

Incidentally UK health sec has said that people returning from northern Italy may need to self isolate, ala China. If that's occurring then you cannot justify for example keeping travel going and having big events like the rugby.

As for the Iranian deputy health minister contracting it, well they're screwed.

wakka12

38 more in Italy, close to 300 now
https://twitter.com/TgLa7/status/1232260190134833152
34 more in iran
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsArabia_B/status/1232239673096822784
South Korea very close to 1000
Feels like more new cases are occurring daily outside China than inside China now(apparently..)

ArmaniJeanss

Graces7 wrote: »

Online rte news page article on a Public Health team meeting today; cannot link from here so could someone please

A lot of info

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/0225/1117449-europe-coronavirus/

Text of article.

The National Public Health Emergency Team will meet this afternoon to review the latest position on Covid-19 and Ireland's preparations.
Authorities are awaiting advice from the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in the wake of seven deaths from the virus in Italy.
The north of Italy has become a new frontline in the fight against the coronavirus with 220 cases reported yesterday, rising from just three on Friday.
Fresh travel advice may be issued along with guidance on major gatherings and further direction for people coming back from infected areas.
No decisions have been made yet on these issues.
The latest figures from the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention show that there have been over 80,000 cases of the coronavirus and there have been 2,698 deaths.
The number of cases in Europe is 276.
But the World Health Organization has said the epidemic in China peaked between 23 January and 2 February and has been declining since.

Fast-spreading outbreaks in Iran and South Korea, and first cases in several countries in the Middle East, have fed worries of a pandemic.
South Korea has the most virus cases in Asia outside China and reported its ninth death and 60 new cases, for a total of 893.
Meanwhile, the rugby Pro 14 game between Ulster and Benetton, which was due to take place in Treviso on Saturday, has been postponed.
The IRFU has said the Six Nations games against Italy in Ireland on 7 March is set to go ahead as scheduled.
It said it will follow Government advice in relation to the virus.
The CEO of Consumers Association Ireland said people will be entitled to a refund or re-routing if travel plans within the EU are disrupted as a result of the coronavirus outbreak.
Dermot Jewell said there were great protections within the EU, but outside of this jurisdiction, passengers need to engage with all of the parties involved in their travel, such as airlines and hotels.
Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, Mr Jewell said this was a learning experience for everyone.
Separately, two Irish athletes who were due to take part in the 'World Series Italia' event at Lignano, which is north of Venice, have been told the swim competition has been cancelled.
A spokesperson for Paralympics Ireland said they were told the event had been cancelled "on the advice of the Local Region and the Italian Para Swimming Federation in response to the recent spread of the Covid-19 virus in Northern Italy".
Britain said people who had visited northern Italy should self isolate if they had any flu-like symptoms.
"The official advice ... that those who have been to northern Italy - that is essentially anybody who has been to Italy north of Pisa - should, if they have flu-like symptoms, self isolate," Health Secretary Matt Hancock said.
"If people have been to the affected areas that the Italian government has quarantined, then they should self isolate whether or not they have symptoms," Mr Hancock said.

Employment Law Specialist Richard Grogan has said employers are not obliged to pay employees if the worker, who has returned from an area with a coronavirus outbreak, decides to stay at home as a safety precaution.
However he told RTÉ's Today with Sean O'Rourke that in reality, from a health and safety perspective, employers should tell at risk or sick staff to stay at home.
This, he said, is just good business because no one wants their entire workforce to get sick.
Mr Grogan said that if a staff member has visited Wuhan in China or somewhere in northern Italy, they should let their employer know.
In those instances, he said, he imagined that employers would encourage employees to self-isolate.
He cautioned against telling Chinese or Italian staff members to stay at home, saying this could be seen as discrimination.
He said that employers need to get their "policies out there" for staff to see - including sick and health policies.
He said isolating someone in the workplace who has returned from an area with coronavirus is a very dangerous thing for an employer to do.
However, employers could ask staff members in these situations to take precautions, such as wearing a mask.
Mr Grogan said employers could warn employees intending to travel to areas with a coronavirus outbreak, such as Northern Italy, that they may be unable to allow them to return to the workplace after the holiday, because it would be a health and safety risk.

Runaways

brevity wrote: »

20 Pack N95 Dust Mask Disposable, Respirator Face Mouth Masks with Exhalation Valve 5 Layer Activated Carbon Air Filter Adjustable Nosepiece Unisex Fold Flat Dust Masks https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B07PNKHJ6C/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_i_EQqvEb409JGQ1

Dust masks are no good against a virus.

Unisex tho. Oooooh!!

odyssey06

wakka12 wrote: »

38 more in Italy, close to 300 now
https://twitter.com/TgLa7/status/1232260190134833152
South Korea very close to 1000
Now more new daily cases outside China than inside China(apparently..)

Unbelievably.