Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

Cilldara_2000

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Can you link to the site these graphs are on, please? Not disputing them, just want to have a look myself.

tom1ie

fritzelly wrote: »

You don't suddenly become contagious after you get infected - probably more likely caught it in the airport than walking around outside in Italy

Source? Your contagious during the 14 day incubation period. That’s a fact since November/December.

Cupatae

amadangomor wrote: »

We have one of the best health systems in the world despite obvious weaknesses at certain times, stop moaning.

We're about to find out.

The quality of it i dont doubt its ability to cope with numbers is the problem, and over crowding.

Kermit.de.frog

Cilldara_2000 wrote: »

Can you link to the site these graphs are on, please? Not disputing them, just want to have a look myself.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/fda-announces-plan-speed-coronavirus-testing-south-korea-reports-huge-jump-new-cases

the butcher

Good article on the gig economy / pandemics.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/02/coronavirus-gig-economy/607204/

Also sucks to be in a workplace (restaurant for example) where wait staff serve while being sick...can't afford the day off because there's no sick pay. Then the whole guilt culture, fear of punishment for calling in sick, other work colleagues picking up "the slack". We have not progressed much in these areas for decades now and the mindset is so ingrained into many of us to work like a slave to try obtain a bigger slice of an ever smaller pie shared out to us plebs.

Huge % of our workforce will continue to go to work during this outbreak sick, some not because they want to, but because they are forced to.

tom1ie

Beasty wrote: »

If you had the choice which would rather you have - coronavirus or Jose Mourinho?


:pac:

Jesus that’s a tough one.........is mourinhoitis curable?

Tootsie_1

amadangomor wrote: »

We have one of the best health systems in the world despite obvious weaknesses at certain times, stop moaning.

Have you spent any length of time in it without private health insurance ? Because that is so far from many many peoples experience of our health system.

cameramonkey

tom1ie wrote: »

Source? Your contagious during the 14 day incubation period. That’s a fact since November/December.

Incubation period is not 14 days in many cases.

drunkmonkey

Cupatae wrote: »

him

cameramonkey wrote: »

he is

tom1ie

the butcher wrote: »

Good article on the gig economy / pandemics.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/02/coronavirus-gig-economy/607204/

Also sucks to be in a workplace (restaurant for example) where wait staff serve while being sick...can't afford the day off because there's no sick pay. Then the whole guilt culture, fear of punishment for calling in sick, other work colleagues picking up "the slack". We have not progressed much in these areas for decades now and the mindset is so ingrained into many of us to work like a slave to try obtain a bigger slice of an ever smaller pie shared out to us plebs.

Huge % of our workforce will continue to go to work during this outbreak sick, some not because they want to, but because they are forced to.

To be honest, that would not be good.

gmisk

Signore Fancy Pants wrote: »

Youre being ridiculous.

I don't doubt they were planning but it's very obvious (based on interviews from the professionals) that their capacity to execute their plans will be far from sufficient.

Jack Lambert, a specialist in infectious diseases at The Mater Hospital and UCD has stated that 20% of people who contract Covid-19 will become very sick and will need to be in ICU with up to an expected 4% mortality rate.

According to the experts, we don't have the requisite facilities to properly follow infectious disease protocols in the event of an outbreak.

Its not my opinion.

Take from that what you will.

I thought of that 20% infected the majority would just have flu like symptoms? Obviously it will be more serious for some e.g. small percentage will get pneunonia, elderly or those with pre existing conditions are more risk obviously.

Phil.x

Am I right in saying Italy had 200 cases and now have over 1000!
This isn't going too well now is it.

namloc1980

smelly sock wrote: »

You'd have to think it best to shut work places amd schools now to contain this thing.

That's ridiculous. Shut them all?

Away With The Fairies

Really worried about catching this. Started a new job a few weeks ago, I won't have a job if I go out sick for a few weeks.

Fr_Dougal

ThePopehimself wrote: »

The Popehimself 24-02-2020, 13:42 #9641
"...and how many more Taxi's are driving around having had similar passengers today...

The 13:22 Milan to Dublin EI433 just landed at Terminal 2 Dublin Airport
And the 15:40 Dublin to Milan EI 436 is due to depart this afternoon bang on schedule…
There are people travelling back and forth to South Korea from Dublin and Shannon...and so it goes.

Our stable doors have been left wide open."
....................................................................................................................................................





I'm so p!ssed off right now...no one would listen.

You were a bit late with that advice weren’t you?

At that stage the woman from Northern Ireland had already arrived, traveled home and self isolated.

cameramonkey

Noli timere

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/?fbclid=IwAR27lNjW5jZQpg5V073sSP0PqlBTKz6KZSITHMZBt5lQ_lkB07Zo8B9nzHY

tom1ie

cameramonkey wrote: »

Incubation period is not 14 days in many cases.

Yeah 14 days was a max. But I don’t know what they are saying it is now. You are contagious during the incubation period.

Cilldara_2000

amadangomor wrote: »

We have one of the best health systems in the world despite obvious weaknesses at certain times, stop moaning.

I'm no hysterical doom merchant but it's been painfully obvious for years that we do not have the capacity to deal with any sort of emergency situation where any more than a handful of people suddenly require medical treatment.
EG: https://www.thejournal.ie/irish-hospitals-major-disaster-3232555-Feb2017/

BanditLuke

tom1ie wrote: »

Jesus that’s a tough one.........is mourinhoitis curable?

No. It just goes on to infect the next host and destroy it.

drunkmonkey

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Really worried about catching this. Started a new job a few weeks ago, I won't have a job if I go out sick for a few weeks.

You won't get paid if you self isolate. That's your choice.

tom1ie

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Really worried about catching this. Started a new job a few weeks ago, I won't have a job if I go out sick for a few weeks.

Why? Are you in the “at risk” category?

Kermit.de.frog

Phil.x wrote: »

Am I right in saying Italy had 200 cases and now have over 1000!
This isn't going too well now is it.

It really isn't.

France, Italy and Germany have gone from next to no cases to escalating crisis in the space of a week.

DeanAustin

tom1ie wrote: »

Jesus that’s a tough one.........is mourinhoitis curable?

It lasts 2-3 years but ends in absolute devastation. Much worse than coronavirus because it primarily affects males between 18-35.

sdanseo

surfwaterfords wrote: »

We are looking at the potential of 106,085 dead in Ireland (1.5% of the population) with 283,710 people critically ill needing assisted breathing to stay alive, many of which might have life long effects after the virus is gone!

Coronavirus cases worldwide: 86,023 | Deaths: 2,942 | Critical 7,868 (taken from here: worldmeters dot info coronavirus)
Assumption 10% of critical are going to die.

Puts death rate at 4.33%

70% expecteded to catch the virus according to theatlantic dot com article if you Google (I wasn't allowed post a link as a new user).

Island of Ireland has apprx 7,000,000 people living on it.

That means 4,900,000 people catch the virus.

Lets assume 50% of cases are actually so mild they are not caught in the numbers above but assume all deaths are captured.

We are then talking about 106,085 dead or 1.5% of the population?

First of all your mathematical ability is questionable.

In your quasi-apocalyptic assumption, the correct figures would be as below.
Current death rate = 2942 / 86023 x 100/1 = 3.4%
Assume 50% of cases undetected so current death rate = 2942 / (86023x2) x 100/1 = 1.71%
100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
1.71% of that number would be 80,342


Now, back to reality. Outside Hubei and Iran, the rates are more like:
Current Death Rate = 171 / 19070 x 100/1 = 0.89%
Assume 50% of cases undetected so current death rate = 171/38410 x 100/1 = 0.4%
100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.4% of that number would be 21,065

Now, if we were to assume that in fact the number of reported confirmed cases only reflects those in Hospital (19%) it would mean the total number of cases in the most optimistic scenario is closer to the below.
Total Hospitalised Cases (19%) outside Hubei & Iran: 19070
Presumed Total Non Reported Cases (81%) outside Hubei & Iran = (19070/19) x 81 = 81298
Presumed TOTAL of all cases outside Huebi & Iran is therefore 19070 + 81298 = 100,368
Death rate would therefore be 171 / 100,368 x 100/1 = 0.17%

100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.17% of that number would be 7,987


By contrast, in 2014, the most recent figures I can find show that for just the Republic of Ireland:
3388 people died of respiratory diseases
8899 people died of heart disease or circulatory illness
8880 people died of cancer



Just some context.

Sources
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/bmd/deaths/

tom1ie

BanditLuke wrote: »

No. It just goes on to infect the next host and destroy it.

Lol! With bland defensive displays eventually grinding you down and destroying you?

Away With The Fairies

tom1ie wrote: »

Why? Are you in the “at risk” category?

No but if I catch anything, isn't it best practice to stay at home instead of infecting everybody else?

tom1ie

DeanAustin wrote: »

It lasts 2-3 years but ends in absolute devastation. Much worse than coronavirus because it primarily affects males between 18-35.

Is there not a first year that gets your hopes up with silverware? Maybe this years virus has mutated?

BanditLuke

Phil.x wrote: »

Am I right in saying Italy had 200 cases and now have over 1000!
This isn't going too well now is it.

They can only do X amount of testing in a day also so in reality it could be multiples of that number.

Man Vs ManUre

Hope we get a load more cases tomorrow so that we don’t have to go to work on Monday.

Signore Fancy Pants

gmisk wrote: »

I thought of that 20% infected the majority would just have flu like symptoms? Obviously it will be more serious for some e.g. small percentage will get pneunonia, elderly or those with pre existing conditions are more risk obviously.

Just quoting what he said.

https://www.newstalk.com/news/eight-questions-coronavirus-answered-975422