Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

cameramonkey

tom1ie wrote: »

Yeah 14 days was a max. But I don’t know what they are saying it is now. You are contagious during the incubation period.

i don't think you are not from day one, your viral load needs to be increased to be contagious.

CinemaGuy45

Man Vs ManUre wrote: »

Hope we get a load more cases tomorrow so that we don’t have to go to work on Monday.

Great attitude.

Why not stay off work Monday and do everybody there a favour.

Kermit.de.frog

sdanseo wrote: »

Just some context.

What do you think will happen to health services all over the world if they have an epidemic like China or South Korea given the abnormally high hopsitalisation rate of carriers of the virus?

People are not diagnosing the problem correctly.

What do you think a small percentage of the issues in Italy would do to our health service?

What do you think it would do to society here if people in Dublin were told there is over 1,000 cases and 29 people dead in a week?

Some are not grasping the full scope of the problem.

ThePopehimself

BanditLuke wrote: »

The HSE and government seem to be more interested in appealing for people to remain calm instead of doing all they can to avert this crisis. Here's a crazy thought, people would be a lot calmer if they had put a stop on flights coming in from a known virus hotspot a few days ago.

They've been at that crap for 5 weeks now...the 'don't panic' crap ...meanwhile they let it in on a Red Carpet. 'Contain' ??? - my Ars£.

Cupatae

sdanseo wrote: »

First of all your mathematical ability is questionable.

In your quasi-apocalyptic assumption, the correct figures would be as below.
Current death rate = 2942 / 86023 x 100/1 = 3.4%
Assume 50% of cases undetected so current death rate = 2942 / (86023x2) x 100/1 = 1.71%
100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
1.71% of that number would be 80,342


Now, back to reality. Outside Hubei and Iran, the rates are more like:
Current Death Rate = 171 / 19070 x 100/1 = 0.89%
Assume 50% of cases undetected so current death rate = 171/38410 x 100/1 = 0.4%
100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.4% of that number would be 21,065

Now, if we were to assume that in fact the number of reported confirmed cases only reflects those in Hospital (19%) it would mean the total number of cases in the most optimistic scenario is closer to the below.
Total Hospitalised Cases (19%) outside Hubei & Iran: 19070
Presumed Total Non Reported Cases (81%) outside Hubei & Iran = (19070/19) x 81 = 81298
Presumed TOTAL of all cases outside Huebi & Iran is therefore 19070 + 81298 = 100,368
Death rate would therefore be 171 / 100,368 x 100/1 = 0.17%

100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.17% of that number would be 7,987


By contrast, in 2014, the most recent figures I can find show that for just the Republic of Ireland:
3388 people died of respiratory diseases
8899 people died of heart diseas of circulatory illness
8880 people died of cancer



Just some context.

Morpheus is that you ?

Kaisr Sose

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

No but if I catch anything, isn't it best practice to stay at home instead of infecting everybody else?

If you catch it... I take it you have not caught it yet so why think like you have it?

Drumpot

Just back from my mum’s to make sure she’s ok and to let her know I’m here if she needs me. If anybody has any friends or family who they think might be concerned with this news maybe give them a text or call (tomorrow?) just to maybe offer then some support.

tom1ie

cameramonkey wrote: »

i don't think you are not from day one, your viral load needs to be increased to be contagious.

You are contagious from day 1 (albeit barely) but increases as the virus multiplies in your body.
That’s my understanding on it from reading up on it since early December to be honest!

fritzelly

tom1ie wrote: »

Source? Your contagious during the 14 day incubation period. That’s a fact since November/December.

The "facts" about being contagious during the incubation period are not fact

When you get infected the virus needs time to incubate for you to become contagious. Putting your hand on an infected area then wiping your mouth does not suddenly make you contagious

Couple of reports for you.
https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/as-coronavirus-spreads-many-questions-and-some-answers-2020022719004#q4
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission.html

tom1ie

Drumpot wrote: »

Just back from my mum’s to make sure she’s ok and to let her know I’m here if she needs me. If anybody has any friends or family who they think might be concerned with this news maybe give them a text or call (tomorrow?) just to maybe offer then some support.

That’s a good shout.

thebaz

sdanseo wrote: »

First of all your mathematical ability is questionable.

In your quasi-apocalyptic assumption, the correct figures would be as below.
Current death rate = 2942 / 86023 x 100/1 = 3.4%
Assume 50% of cases undetected so current death rate = 2942 / (86023x2) x 100/1 = 1.71%
100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
1.71% of that number would be 80,342


Now, back to reality. Outside Hubei and Iran, the rates are more like:
Current Death Rate = 171 / 19070 x 100/1 = 0.89%
Assume 50% of cases undetected so current death rate = 171/38410 x 100/1 = 0.4%
100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.4% of that number would be 21,065

Now, if we were to assume that in fact the number of reported confirmed cases only reflects those in Hospital (19%) it would mean the total number of cases in the most optimistic scenario is closer to the below.
Total Hospitalised Cases (19%) outside Hubei & Iran: 19070
Presumed Total Non Reported Cases (81%) outside Hubei & Iran = (19070/19) x 81 = 81298
Presumed TOTAL of all cases outside Huebi & Iran is therefore 19070 + 81298 = 100,368
Death rate would therefore be 171 / 100,368 x 100/1 = 0.17%

100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.17% of that number would be 7,987


By contrast, in 2014, the most recent figures I can find show that for just the Republic of Ireland:
3388 people died of respiratory diseases
8899 people died of heart disease or circulatory illness
8880 people died of cancer



Just some context.

Sources
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/bmd/deaths/

best post here - context is right - but, panic sells newspapers

the butcher

From the looks of the schools that went on trips around the infected areas of northern Italy, most arrived home last week. Reports of incubation were up to a max of 14 days (but small % even higher reported). If Italy can go from 14 cases on to over 1000 in 8 days, I think things here will look very different by Sunday next week, unless we can slow the spread similar to the UK. It's only buying us some time at this stage, we will get more cases and as Dr John Campbell has said recently, it will come in waves.

Kaisr Sose

Man Vs ManUre wrote: »

Hope we get a load more cases tomorrow so that we don’t have to go to work on Monday.

If that is a joke, wishing ill on others so you benefit is not that funny

tom1ie

Man Vs ManUre wrote: »

Hope we get a load more cases tomorrow so that we don’t have to go to work on Monday.

Jesus. Good man.

sdanseo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

What do you think will happen to health services all over the world if they have an epidemic like China or South Korea given the abnormally high hopsitalisation rate of carriers of the virus?

People are not diagnosing the problem correctly.

What do you think a small percentage of the issues in Italy would do to our health service?

What do you think it would do to society here if people in Dublin were told there is over 1,000 cases and 29 people dead in a week?

Some are not grasping the full scope of the problem.

2 caveats on my numbers - they divide actual deaths by actual cases and ignore existing who may succumb so are imperfect but we are long enough in now (2 months) for the trend to be rather consistent.
Also, I'm assuming slow enough spread that people are cared for. But not more so than the existing figures in other countries have had to deal with so far.

In 2 or 3 weeks time we could well be told that a similar proportion of our population (around 8% of Italy's) is affected in the same way.
That'd be maybe 80 cases and 2 deaths.

Again context. 4 people died in car crashes in the last 72 hours.
By the same rates as my quoted post, in those same 72 hours 174 people also died of other diseases.
406 people in the week you mentioned.

cameramonkey

tom1ie wrote: »

You are contagious from day 1 (albeit barely) but increases as the virus multiplies in your body.
That’s my understanding on it from reading up on it since early December to be honest!

My understanding is that it takes a few days at least to be contagious, it follows a similar pattern to other viral infections. i dont see for instance how say two hours after you got infected how your body would produce enough viral load to infect another person.

HairySalmon

Man Vs ManUre wrote: »

Hope we get a load more cases tomorrow so that we don’t have to go to work on Monday.

I move to Dublin and start a new job Monday week. I won’t have a leg to stand on if things get bad quickly!

billybonkers

First case in the republic. Out east!!

It's here

Not a drill

all about the mane

sdanseo wrote: »

First of all your mathematical ability is questionable.

In your quasi-apocalyptic assumption, the correct figures would be as below.
Current death rate = 2942 / 86023 x 100/1 = 3.4%
Assume 50% of cases undetected so current death rate = 2942 / (86023x2) x 100/1 = 1.71%
100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
1.71% of that number would be 80,342


Now, back to reality. Outside Hubei and Iran, the rates are more like:
Current Death Rate = 171 / 19070 x 100/1 = 0.89%
Assume 50% of cases undetected so current death rate = 171/38410 x 100/1 = 0.4%
100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.4% of that number would be 21,065

Now, if we were to assume that in fact the number of reported confirmed cases only reflects those in Hospital (19%) it would mean the total number of cases in the most optimistic scenario is closer to the below.
Total Hospitalised Cases (19%) outside Hubei & Iran: 19070
Presumed Total Non Reported Cases (81%) outside Hubei & Iran = (19070/19) x 81 = 81298
Presumed TOTAL of all cases outside Huebi & Iran is therefore 19070 + 81298 = 100,368
Death rate would therefore be 171 / 100,368 x 100/1 = 0.17%

100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.17% of that number would be 7,987


By contrast, in 2014, the most recent figures I can find show that for just the Republic of Ireland:
3388 people died of respiratory diseases
8899 people died of heart disease or circulatory illness
8880 people died of cancer



Just some context.

Sources
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/bmd/deaths/

Someone actually talking sense

all about the mane

billybonkers wrote: »

First case in the republic. Out east!!

It's here

Not a drill

are you delighted?

Fr_Dougal

billybonkers wrote: »

First case in the republic. Out east!!

It's here

Not a drill

Source?

fritzelly

billybonkers wrote: »

First case in the republic. Out east!!

It's here

Not a drill

Welcome to boards.ie

Loafing Oaf

saabsaab wrote: »

Surprised.


That we didn't have a confirmed case here weeks ago. Flights should have been stopped from affected areas. Maybe they will now?

I think not:
Harris said, “we can’t ban travel”.

“Let’s pretend we decided in Ireland [that] we weren’t going to accept flights from Italy. That wouldn’t work because Italian people could be flying to France and France on to Ireland,” said Harris.

“We live in the European Union. There is free movement.

https://www.thejournal.ie/we-cant-ban-travel-health-minister-rules-out-screening-at-irish-airports-as-covid-19-spreads-5022235-Feb2020/

tom1ie

sdanseo wrote: »

First of all your mathematical ability is questionable.

In your quasi-apocalyptic assumption, the correct figures would be as below.
Current death rate = 2942 / 86023 x 100/1 = 3.4%
Assume 50% of cases undetected so current death rate = 2942 / (86023x2) x 100/1 = 1.71%
100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
1.71% of that number would be 80,342


Now, back to reality. Outside Hubei and Iran, the rates are more like:
Current Death Rate = 171 / 19070 x 100/1 = 0.89%
Assume 50% of cases undetected so current death rate = 171/38410 x 100/1 = 0.4%
100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.4% of that number would be 21,065

Now, if we were to assume that in fact the number of reported confirmed cases only reflects those in Hospital (19%) it would mean the total number of cases in the most optimistic scenario is closer to the below.
Total Hospitalised Cases (19%) outside Hubei & Iran: 19070
Presumed Total Non Reported Cases (81%) outside Hubei & Iran = (19070/19) x 81 = 81298
Presumed TOTAL of all cases outside Huebi & Iran is therefore 19070 + 81298 = 100,368
Death rate would therefore be 171 / 100,368 x 100/1 = 0.17%

100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.17% of that number would be 7,987


By contrast, in 2014, the most recent figures I can find show that for just the Republic of Ireland:
3388 people died of respiratory diseases
8899 people died of heart disease or circulatory illness
8880 people died of cancer



Just some context.

Sources
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/bmd/deaths/

Very good post. You have excluded the epicentre which makes sense, why have you disregarded the Iran death rate?

theballz

They are not telling us everything.

Quantum Erasure

cameramonkey wrote: »

Noli timere

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/?fbclid=IwAR27lNjW5jZQpg5V073sSP0PqlBTKz6KZSITHMZBt5lQ_lkB07Zo8B9nzHY

hmmm...

Seamus Heaney, the Irish poet and playwright, passed away in Dublin on 30 August, 2013, after a short illness.

His last words, sent by text message to his wife, Marie, minutes before he died, were Noli timere (Latin for Do not be afraid).

skimpydoo

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

Patient Zero was there....

But where to start looking....

All Dublin Gardai stations and hospitals

Kermit.de.frog

sdanseo wrote: »

In 2 or 3 weeks time we could well be told that a similar proportion of our population (around 8% of Italy's) is affected in the same way.
That'd be maybe 80 cases and 2 deaths.

Again context. 4 people died in car crashes in the last 72 hours.
By the same rates as my quoted post, in those same 72 hours 174 people also died of other diseases.

Sorry but i'm sick of the ignorance and people throwing around irrelevant numbers.

I'm asking you how do you think people in Dublin would feel if they were told there were over 1,000 cases and 29 people dead in a week?

What do you think would happen?

Business as usual here?

Is that what you think!?

tillyfilly

Man in east of the country diagnosed with Covid-19
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0229/1119357-coronavirus-ireland/

gabeeg

sdanseo wrote: »

In 2 or 3 weeks time we could well be told that a similar proportion of our population (around 8% of Italy's) is affected in the same way.
That'd be maybe 80 cases and 2 deaths.

Again context. 4 people died in car crashes in the last 72 hours.
By the same rates as my quoted post, in those same 72 hours 174 people also died of other diseases.
406 people in the week you mentioned.

Now do the hospitalisation rate, hotshot