Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

tom1ie

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

It's backed up by data from South Korea and the cruise ship as well - which probably have the most thorough tests to date. 0.5% of those infected have died in South Korea, and 0.8% on the cruise ship. Of course, those numbers still make this something that needs to be taken seriously, but they're reassuring compared to the 3%+ fatality rate indicated in some places.

I've taken the info from worldometer. If I've made a balls of any of it someone let me know please.

Handy info:
Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.
Fatality rate in other provinces was 0.16%.
Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total.
Most of the cases were still mild cases, therefore there was no need to panic.

amadangomor

Tootsie_1 wrote: »

Have you spent any length of time in it without private health insurance ? Because that is so far from many many peoples experience of our health system.

We like to moan. The reason the health service has weaknesses is due to the public health unions strength and them and their members resistance to change.

People who moan about the health service are likely to have I'm with the nurses on their Facebook profile not releasing that while nurses do great work individually,collectively they are resisting change that would improve the health service.

mirrorwall14

100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.17% of that number would be 7,987


By contrast, in 2014, the most recent figures I can find show that for just the Republic of Ireland:
3388 people died of respiratory diseases
8899 people died of heart disease or circulatory illness
8880 people died of cancer

I won’t argue the maths because I don’t know enough about the statistics involved.

But you also fail to mention the full picture. 7987 would be an extra 154 bed capacity every single week for critically ill and dying patients needed in our HSE for the whole year. We don’t have that. We already run at over 100% capacity.

It is also far more likely that it would not be 154 a week without containment measures. Without containment measures we will be completely overwhelmed very quickly

Kermit.de.frog

sdanseo wrote: »

Edited my post above just fyi
No, of course there'd be mass panic. But that doesn't affect the numbers.

But again you kinda get it but you don't get it.

It's the other consequences on top of the cases and the deaths that have countries all over the world scrambling to contain it.

This virus could cripple health services around the world on it's rate of required hospitalisations alone.

The problems are broader than just the virus.

I'm not having a go at you but i'm blue in the face seeing these irrelevant numbers on the flu etc with no proper understanding of the underlying problems uniquely associated with this particular epidemic/pandemic.

gozunda

gmisk wrote: »

I thought of that 20% infected the majority would just have flu like symptoms? Obviously it will be more serious for some e.g. small percentage will get pneunonia, elderly or those with pre existing conditions are more risk obviously.

Current stats show that of the recorded 43,271 currently Infected (live) patients worldwide - 82% have a Mild Condition of the illness. 18% are deemed to be Serious or Critical.

Some experts have stated that it is expected up to 60 % of any given population could become infected.

Anyone can catch the virus. Even young people have died - with the exception of very young children (who can still contract the virus and suffer medical complications)

tuxy

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

It's backed up by data from South Korea and the cruise ship as well - which probably have the most thorough tests to date.

It was my understanding that the cruise ship had mostly older people, a much higher average age than the general population. These people are high risk.
So how is it the most thorough test?

gabeeg

tom1ie wrote: »

Handy info:
Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.
Fatality rate in other provinces was 0.16%.
Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total.
Most of the cases were still mild cases, therefore there was no need to panic.

What?

Call Me Jimmy

thebaz wrote: »

best post here - context is right - but, panic sells newspapers

Those stats are rational logical but not the relevant point. Just keep an eye on what you see from South Korea on the news later this week, maximum 2 weeks. And the week after that in Italy. Then look back at how relevant it was trying to determine the death rates at the moment.

It's not us doom merchants. It's the WHO who say you have to shut the surrounding region down as soon possible (they say it in a somewhat diplomatic way of course). And what happens if you don't is what we'll be watching in Italy and South Korea on RTE.

He then scaled Italy's current numbers for our population being about 80 cases and 4 deaths. Look at the rate of change not the current amount. The WHO said the only thing that slows down the rate of change is draconian measures. So unless Italy really shuts the whole country down and bans travel it will increase until it naturally decelerates. China moved heaven and earth to try and avoid that.

BanditLuke

thebaz wrote: »

cause the Iranian figures don't add up - the death rate far exceeds anywher else , ther is conflicting reports from medics and government on the actual number of deaths themselves , I certainly would discount Iranian figures -

So you'd discount the Iranian figures but wouldn't discount the Chinese figures?

all about the mane

gozunda wrote: »

Current stats show that of the recorded 43,271 currently Infected (live) patients worldwide - 82% have a Mild Condition of the illness. 18% are deemed to be Serious or Critical.

Sone experts gave stated that it is expected up to 60 % of any given population will catch the virus.

60%. What experts would they be now?

tom1ie

thebaz wrote: »

cause the Iranian figures don't add up - the death rate far exceeds anywher else , ther is conflicting reports from medics and government on the actual number of deaths themselves , I certainly would discount Iranian figures -

Why discount though. Should we not be paying more attention to them?
They are not epicentre, yet show serious infection and death rates. What’s going on there. Why is that happening. How do we make sure it doesn’t happen here.

Beasty

Man Vs ManUre wrote: »

Hope we get a load more cases tomorrow so that we don’t have to go to work on Monday.

Threadbanned

jammiedodgers

theballz wrote: »

They are not telling us everything.

all about the mane wrote: »

who?

Exactly






:pac:

tom1ie

gabeeg wrote: »

What?

That’s from
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

skimpydoo

gmisk wrote: »

Who are they?
And what exactly do you think they are hiding?

They is the HSE, and it would be nice to know when he flew, on what airline, how he travelled home and what hospital they are in so that somebody who may have been in contact with him can get tested.

gabeeg

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.17% of that number would be 7,987


By contrast, in 2014, the most recent figures I can find show that for just the Republic of Ireland:
3388 people died of respiratory diseases
8899 people died of heart disease or circulatory illness
8880 people died of cancer

I won’t argue the maths because I don’t know enough about the statistics involved.

But you also fail to mention the full picture. 7987 would be an extra 154 bed capacity every single week for critically ill and dying patients needed in our HSE for the whole year. We don’t have that. We already run at over 100% capacity.

It is also far more likely that it would not be 154 a week without containment measures. Without containment measures we will be completely overwhelmed very quickly

It's also not very reassuring that in the best case scenario it becomes the third biggest killer, just behind heart attacks and cancer

CFlat

BanditLuke wrote: »

Do they ever?

The fact we keep being told to stay calm is the giveaway.

The nerve of them to tell us to remain calm.

Away With The Fairies

Kaisr Sose wrote: »

You are speaking a bit pessimistic there. I cant avoid people either but I won't go around thinking I might get it.

I'm not being pessimistic. Just being practical here. It can happen. If someone coughs on you, are you ok with that? There are alot of people out there who won't cover up if they sneeze.

The Satanist

Just as Ireland survives gangland warfare and Storm Hor Gay, along comes the Corona plague to finish us off. I can't want until Liveline on Monday.

JP Liz V1

tillyfilly wrote: »

Man in east of the country diagnosed with Covid-19
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0229/1119357-coronavirus-ireland/

Should Ireland be stopping anyone coming in from Italy

A case of the coronavirus has been confirmed in the east of Ireland, according to the Health Protection Surveillance Centre.

The patient, a male in the eastern part of the country, is currently receiving appropriate medical care, according to the Health Protection Surveillance Centre.

The Centre said that the patient was identified and tested in line with established protocols for the investigation of suspect cases of Covid-19.

The case is associated with travel from an affected area in northern Italy, rather than contact with another confirmed case.

Doctor Jimbob

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

But again you kinda get it but you don't get it.

It's the other consequences on top of the cases and the deaths that have countries all over the world scrambling to contain it.

This virus could cripple health services around the world on it's rate of required hospitalisations alone.

The problems are broader than just the virus.

I'm not having a go at you but i'm blue in the face seeing these irrelevant numbers on the flu etc with no proper understanding of the underlying problems uniquely associated with this particular epidemic/pandemic.

Do you not think the fact we're coming out of flu season will help in that there will be some hospital spaces freed up though?

cameramonkey

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

hmmm...

Seamus Heaney, the Irish poet and playwright, passed away in Dublin on 30 August, 2013, after a short illness.

His last words, sent by text message to his wife, Marie, minutes before he died, were Noli timere (Latin for Do not be afraid).

And he was right.

BanditLuke

CFlat wrote: »

The nerve of them to tell us to remain calm.

Well i'd rather they just levelled with us so people can be prepared.

leavingirl

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Those stats are rational logical but not the relevant point. Just keep an eye on what you see from South Korea on the news later this week, maximum 2 weeks. And the week after that in Italy. Then look back at how relevant it was trying to determine the death rates at the moment.

It's not us doom merchants. It's the WHO who say you have to shut the surrounding region down as soon possible (they say it in a somewhat diplomatic way of course). And what happens if you don't is what we'll be watching in Italy and South Korea on RTE.

He then scaled Italy's current numbers for our population being about 80 cases and 4 deaths. Look at the rate of change not the current amount. The WHO said the only thing that slows down the rate of change is draconian measures. So unless Italy really shuts the whole country down and bans travel it will increase until it naturally decelerates. China moved heaven and earth to try and avoid that.

The WHO have a very questionable record when it comes to epidemics such as SARs, ZIKA, SWINE FLU

Doctor Jimbob

tuxy wrote: »

It was my understanding that the cruise ship had mostly older people, a much higher average age than the general population. These people are high risk.
So how is it the most thorough test?

Sorry, poor wording on my part.

I meant that people were more thoroughly tested, as in they tested every fecker on that ship.

Quantum Erasure

tom1ie wrote: »

That’s from
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

" as of 24:00 on Feb. 3"

tom1ie

The Satanist wrote: »

Just as Ireland survives gangland warfare and Storm Hor Gay, along comes the Corona plague to finish us off. I can't want until Liveline on Monday.

Liveline will be gold. Don’t know how joe will cope.
I hope Robbie phones in again!

neonsofa

tom1ie wrote: »

Liveline will be gold. Don’t know how joe will cope.
I hope Robbie phones in again!

Joe, joe, joe

Gas!

thebaz

tom1ie wrote: »

Why discount though. Should we not be paying more attention to them?
They are not epicentre, yet show serious infection and death rates. What’s going on there. Why is that happening. How do we make sure it doesn’t happen here.

whose figures would you say are more accurate - Italy and South Korea or Iran ? I know who's figures I would rely on.

I would say Iran are playing down how many cases they have, by a lot.

tom1ie

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

thats from Feb 3rd

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Last updated: February 29, 4:40 GMT