Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

Nickla

all about the mane wrote: »

Someone actually talking sense

why is the assumption that 50% are undetected?

Kermit.de.frog

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Do you not think the fact we're coming out of flu season will help in that there will be some hospital spaces freed up though?

Yes of course. But the flu is a fact built in to health systems all over the world.

This is new being thrown on top of a system that struggles to cope (in all countries) as it is.

tom1ie

thebaz wrote: »

whose figures would you say are more accurate - Italy and South Korea or Iran ? I know who's figures I would rely on.

I would say Iran are playing down how many cases they have, by a lot.

Well hopefully not. Iran’s figures are bananas.

the butcher

The reason why there is so much discussion and "hype" over this virus is...

1. It's new.
2. New means we don't have a system in place to cope with it, like we do with the flu, like cancer and all the other diseases or accidents some mad posters like to compare this to for some bizarre reasoning?!
3. It's far more infectious than the flu.
4. Death rate is higher than the flu.
5. Irish aspect is we have no capacity to deal with it. We don't have extra staff or resources, we can't magic them out of thin air.
6. This means our choices are to not treat some people and risk them dying or....not treat others in a&e...leading to more indirect deaths and life changing incidents for others.
7. We have the HSE telling people to ring their GPs and GPs having to tell those people to ring the HSE. There is little to no confidence in the HSE to handle this upcoming outbreak.

sdanseo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

But again you kinda get it but you don't get it.

It's the other consequences on top of the cases and the deaths that have countries all over the world scrambling to contain it.

This virus could cripple health services around the world on it's rate of required hospitalisations alone.

The problems are broader than just the virus.

I'm not having a go at you but i'm blue in the face seeing these irrelevant numbers on the flu etc with no proper understanding of the underlying problems uniquely associated with this particular epidemic/pandemic.

That doesn't make the numbers irrelevant. The only figures I discounted were the epicentre (whose health system was crippled beyond any imagination, not least because they didn't know what they were dealing with) and Iran for obvious reasons.

The figures include all the other areas with large outbreaks.

Yeah, they exclude the chances of people currently sick dying. But they very much include the pressure on hospitals (to date). Will it get worse as spread speeds up? Sure. I've mentioned they are optimistic.

As bad as the doomsday prophecies though... no, probably not.

I don't disbelieve or discount the day to day effects other than on people's health. This is going to be a very big deal for the world and a lot of the precautions are very justified and knock-on consequences are inevitable. I don't question that. Just trying to provide reassurance to people as regards the slightly more serious concern they might have i.e. is it going to knock them off their particular perch.

fr336

laurah591 wrote: »

Fr336 what happened with the 21 yr old? was that the woman Iranium footballer?

Unfortunately so. And I was wrong she was 23

Quantum Erasure

tom1ie wrote: »

At top of page:
Last updated: February 29, 4:40 GMT

yea but the figures you quoted were from the 3rd

gozunda

all about the mane wrote: »

60%. What experts would they be now?

These:

Prof. Gabriel Leung

Expert on coronavirus epidemics 
Chair of Public Health Medicine 
Hong Kong University

 It could infect 60% of global population if unchecked

Prof. Marc Lipsitch

Prof. of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health
Head, Harvard Ctr. Communicable Disease Dynamics

I think it is likely we will see a global pandemic. If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-expert-opinions/

thebaz

tom1ie wrote: »

Well hopefully not. Iran’s figures are bananas.

Irans figures are bananas , that why they should be discounted.

silverharp

thebaz wrote: »

cause the Iranian figures don't add up - the death rate far exceeds anywher else , ther is conflicting reports from medics and government on the actual number of deaths themselves , I certainly would discount Iranian figures -

Iranians aren't helping themselves, licking shrines to prove they have healing powers

https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1233695235399700481

Kermit.de.frog

tom1ie wrote: »

Well hopefully not. Iran’s figures are bananas.

Let's call a spade a spade, we are finding out the crooked countries from the straight up democracies in this crisis.

Silver lining.

BanditLuke

The UK considering calling back retired doctors and nurses to help with coming virus crisis according Sky News. Good luck with that.

Call Me Jimmy

leavingirl wrote: »

The WHO have a very questionable record when it comes to epidemics such as SARs, ZIKA, SWINE FLU

Preaching to the converted, it's only because they were so reluctant that I half believe them. Plus if they aren't correct that'd mean China's containment didnt work at all and it's all a big lie, which I don't want to consider for obvious reasons

billybonkers

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Should Ireland be stopping anyone coming in from Italy

Should other countries stop us from visiting them?

Kaisr Sose

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I'm not being pessimistic. Just being practical here. It can happen. If someone coughs on you, are you ok with that? There are alot of people out there who won't cover up if they sneeze.

So am I. We have one case, which is now isolated. Outside that, who is coughing on who ? Stay healthy in self imposed quarantine of that makes it safer for you, and that me being practical. Not much more I can add given we have different views on the risk of infection.

Loafing Oaf

thebaz wrote: »

whose figures would you say are more accurate - Italy and South Korea or Iran ? I know who's figures I would rely on.

South Korea's. Not so sure about Italy...

tuxy

thebaz wrote: »

cause the Iranian figures don't add up - the death rate far exceeds anywher else , ther is conflicting reports from medics and government on the actual number of deaths themselves , I certainly would discount Iranian figures -

There is a theory(no evidence to back this up) that Iran were using steroids to try to combat the symptoms.
And while these steroids will lower the immune response and people will feel better initially it inhibits people's ability to fight the virus.
Might account for some of the higher fatality rate in Iran but the fatality figures are still insanely high.

tom1ie

sdanseo wrote: »

That doesn't make the numbers irrelevant. The only figures I discounted were the epicentre (whose health system was crippled beyond any imagination, not least because they didn't know what they were dealing with) and Iran for obvious reasons.

The figures include all the other areas with large outbreaks.

Yeah, they exclude the chances of people currently sick dying. But they very much include the pressure on hospitals (to date). Will it get worse as spread speeds up? Sure. I've mentioned they are optimistic.

As bad as the doomsday prophecies though... no, probably not.

I don't disbelieve or discount the day to day effects other than on people's health. This is going to be a very big deal for the world and a lot of the precautions are very justified and knock-on consequences are inevitable. I don't question that. Just trying to provide reassurance to people as regards the slightly more serious concern they might have i.e. is it going to knock them off their particular perch.

One way or the other c19 will have a big affect on Ireland Europe and the world. It’s already had a large effect financially on the stock market and in the supply chain in manufacturing.
However mortality rates is where this will be judged and I just hope we don’t end up with something like Wuhan or Iran.

Cupatae

leavingirl wrote: »

The WHO have a very questionable record when it comes to epidemics such as SARs, ZIKA, SWINE FLU

In there defense i think they ve a fairly tough job, its never gonna be perfect but we came out the otherside of all those mentioned

BanditLuke

billybonkers wrote: »

Should other countries stop us from visiting them?

If we had the numbers Italy had a few days ago yes.

CinemaGuy45

tuxy wrote: »

There is a theory(no evidence to back this up) that Iran were using steroids to try to combat the symptoms.
And while these steroids will lower the immune response and people will feel better initially it inhibits people's ability to fight the virus.
Might account for some of the higher fatality rate in Iran but the figure is still insanely high.

This is speculation on my part but is it possible Iran might be the ones telling the truth here?

d51984

Jesus lads if it snows in the next few days boards.ie is going to explode in to a billion pieces!

Cupatae

It ll be interesting to see how our election will work out if it put to a re-election.. talk about ****e timing !

Westernyelp

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Let's call a spade a spade, we are finding out the crooked countries from the straight up democracies in this crisis.

Silver lining.

True. we are also finding out the absolute loons on here. It's great

depcon

You can't trust any of the numbers with regards to infection vs mortality in China . How many people have got the virus, not been tested and recovered already. Its easy to hide an illness but a dead body is different.

Quantum Erasure

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

yea but the figures you quoted were from the 3rd

Mortality Rate in China as of Feb. 20 (3.8% nationwide, 5.8% in Wuhan, 0.7% other areas)

tom1ie

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

yea but the figures you quoted were from the 3rd

Really? Are they not the most up to date figures on that page? So are the most up to date figures available on that site from the 3rd?
I read it that those figures were updated today?

billybonkers

BanditLuke wrote: »

If we had the numbers Italy had a few days ago yes.

We could have those numbers soon. There could be many people not showing symptoms also. Could be 100's infected here by now

BanditLuke

Wuhan has/had a population of around 10m people similar to London. Now imagine London locked down like Wuhan for 6 weeks for a minute.

But yeah it's only the flu like.

brendanwalsh

theballz wrote: »

They are not telling us everything.

Absolutely.
Irish government are suppressing information.
I work as a healthcare worker. I posted on Thursday that there was a confirmed case in the mater hospital. Strange it didn’t get released to the public until 9pm Saturday night.