Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

turbbo

JaCrispy wrote: »

You're missing the point. The people who don't present at GPs or hospitals are not on the official "infected" lists. Regardless of the symptoms the number of infected people is most likely significantly higher than the official figures.

No not missing the point - is it not possible that those that are not presenting to GPs or Hospitals are still in the early stages of the virus or worse dead already?

cnocbui

glasso wrote: »

in fairness it's actually more dangerous than Ebola in terms of absolute deaths likely (as opposed to mortality rate) as it's much more successful at spreading and harder to stop.

It will probably be worse in death toll eventually, but the mortality stats for ebola are still higher.

Hemorrhagic fevers seem to be the absolute worst for killing lots of people. The Black Death which wiped out half of the population of Europe was very possibly hemorrhagic.

tillyfilly

Stocks have fallen 3-5% more today, a good sign of the contagion we should expect with covid 19

Drumpot, keep up the commentary from the conference.

turbbo

cnocbui wrote: »

It will probably be worse in death toll eventually, but the mortality stats for ebola are still higher.

Hemorrhagic fevers seem to be the absolute worst for killing lots of people. The Black Death which wiped out half of the population of Europe was very possibly hemorrhagic.

Deadly viruses don't tend to spread for the obvious reasons.
This one will spread and that is the danger.

Graces7

brevity wrote: »

Dead right. I’m on a immunosuppressant for a number of conditions. I’m sure there are others in a similar position.

I am immunocompromised BUT as I have no family or commitments etc I chose to live in solitude in a very remote place with no real human contact. My supplies are delivered to the gate and I gather them in later.

So I myself am safe; nearing 80 now.

I get very angry when folk make statements about only the old etc. and also concerned about any lockdown situation, and supplies we all need getting to old folk. There was a report from Kilkenny a week or so ago; a lady in her 70s, A van was delivering food to her, could get no answer so called the Gardai. When they finally broke in she had been dead a few days; surrounded by her pet cats . If there had not been that food delivery?

These are folk who have raised a generation. Whatever measures are put in place there must be care taken that old folk are not neglected, please .

Here on the island that is organised. A safety net is there and needs to be for everyone.

Drumpot

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0225/1117427-coronavirus/

Surely only a matter of time before we start to get a shift in response from the EU.

BACK TO WHO CONFERENCE: Oh, big question, What is your response to the suggestion that millions are infected and over 250,000 are dead.

"I didnt got everywhere in China but I think the numbers/data we have are reflective of the cases." In short, this is uncorroborated hyperbole.

Treatment trials "Some groups are trying multiple clinical trials"

Question "Why is there a disparity between figures in Wuhan and the rest of China?"

Response: "Wuhans higher mortality rate probably due to a couple of things. It happened fast and people didnt know how to treat it. The sheer scale. At the beginning of the outbreak we were seeing severe diseases"

Mortality Rate: "This is still a big problem and a concern"

Question: "How do you explain the fast spread in Italy and why they were not ready and when you mentioned war, what did you mean by that ?"

"I have not been in any other country who has been managing this thing so I dont know the circumstances of different countries. But there is really important lessons we can learn from it. This tells you what this virus can do. I keep hearing people say well that happens because of this (ie we just dont know why its popping up in random spots).

1. Think the virus is going to show up tomorrow. If you dont think that way you wont be ready
2. If it hits us we have to stop it (otherwise you have lost before you started)
3. You know you are going to need beds, quarantine close contacts so you have to be able to accommodate those people
4. You need enough ventilators
5. You need to be bale to transfer people
6. YOU need the lab capacity to test people (not an x-ray - In china they CT scan them - How many countries have CT scans and how many can they put through in a day)
7. Do you have people who know how to fill out an investigation form, where thats going to be sent and who will reivew it ?
8. Talk to your population - "Folks we have to be ready to do this tomorrow"
9. Talk to people who have done it (China - hence all the praise for China)

All "Super dooable" . .

So fail to prepare, prepare to fail. This has been a really good conference


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XF6AZv8P3i4

How is there only 1000 people watching this ?

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

It will probably be worse in death toll eventually, but the mortality stats for ebola are still higher.

Hemorrhagic fevers seem to be the absolute worst for killing lots of people. The Black Death which wiped out half of the population of Europe was very possibly hemorrhagic.

that's what I already said in my post re mortality rate.

but Ebola doesn't spread easily and that spread can be fairly easily stopped. e.g. as recently was taken care of in Africa a few years ago.

whatabouterry comparisons to the black death are irrelevant.

if it was Ebola that broke out in China in that market I'd be happy enough and not concerned about elderly relations.

high mortality rates mean that a disease can be much more easily contained (in modern times)- it's ones like this where many people have mild or even no symptoms and yet contagious that are much more dangerous

darjeeling

Deleted User wrote: »

But not according to WHO..
WHO's Bruce Aylward says that the #Covid19 mission did not find evidence of lots of undetected mild cases. If that's true, the severity of the illness is what is being seen now.

I keep going on about this, I know, but given this tweet:

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1232145440243470336

... then I would hope that China will be able to use mass antibody testing to answer the question of how many people were infected but never developed disease symptoms, or only developed mild symptoms and never sought medical help before recovering.

If they really have a reliable test already, and have produced 350,000 test kits, I'd hope to get some answers very soon.

[Though I'm still skeptical about official stats from any country without a healthy independent media]

Mic 1972

glasso wrote: »

mortality rate said to be higher in people with poor numeric skills.

LMFAO!!!!! best post of the day

YFlyer

turbbo wrote: »

4% is still massive thats 1 dead in every 25 ffs!! I personally don't believe this will happen - but who knows? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

.

Graces7

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

It's all well and good saying the deaths only appear to be affecting elderly and immune compromised people but ANYONE can get it and spread it around.

Don't the elderly deserve to live? What about that 40 year old who is undergoing chemo? They've been told that their chances of surviving cancer are high only to get knocked down by Covid-19! Are they just cannon fodder too?


It's already been shown that super spreaders can be asymptomatic so telling people only to self isolate if they show symptoms is a ****ing cop out and it boils my blood.

****************************

Thank you; see my post,

Drumpot

DrumSteve wrote: »

Is this a good thing or a bad thing?

Hes commenting on symptoms, that was the only piece I got from him. Think hes trying to dispel some myths - runny nose does not automatically Corana as only 4% of people thus far have runny rose as a sympom

Mic 1972

DrumSteve wrote: »

Pulled it from here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

CLOSED CASES
30,611
Cases which had an outcome:
27,904 (91%)
Recovered / Discharged
2,707 (9%)
Deaths

Correct

You are brave posting true data in here,
anyways that 9% is trending downwards as more closed cases are being added to the totals. It will plateau lower than that but not that far. That figure is the driver for all the high emergency plans around the world.

cnocbui

You couldn't make this S*** up!

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1232150542970912769

Martina1991

darjeeling wrote: »

I've never done serological testing so I can only go on reports that say you get a result in 15 minutes and can therefore mass screen large numbers of samples.
That would be much faster and less labour intensive than any PCR-based test for viral RNA, but wouldn't have the same diagnostic value for individual cases.

An actual assay may take 15 mins, but that doesn't take into account the time is takes for specimen transport, preparation, analysis, reporting. Multiply that by thousands of samples over a routine day.

Its's like saying a rollercoaster ride only takes 2 mins. But when you're queuing up for hours to get on the ride your day is gone.

odyssey06 wrote: »

Sure why bother testing anyone then? Symptoms or not?

No one has proposed using oxygen tanks for people who may be carriers, why are you bringing them into the conversation?

Just the HSE standard for testing and at risk cases is noticeably laxer than other countries.

If the HSE can't get through the workload of the tests how will it get through the workload infected by people they didn't test and let carry on their business?

If someone is displaying symptoms, they would have to be treated for what's making them sick. Covid aside, any patient presenting to a hospital could have influenza, meningitis or a head cold. You have to know what they're suffering from before you can treat them appropriately. Hence the testing.

I mentioned the oxygen tanks as part of the lack of resources. Because that is arguably the biggest concern for posters here; that the health service wont be able to treat those who may become critically ill. Oxygen tanks were discussed in the previous thread. They can be needed if patients have pneumonia or respiratory failure.

You don't know what the HSEs policies or numbers are for testing. Neither do I. That's up to the health care professionals treating the patients. People here are just assuming testing isn't being carried out.

Health care workers will have to take any precautions that they may be instructed to take to prevent infection in the first place. Rigorous hand washing, PPE, isolation rooms.

josip

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Aussies start prepping
https://amp.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/virus-emergency-blueprint-australia-pulls-trigger-on-pandemic-plan-20200225-p54490.html?__twitter_impression=true

If I was in Australia, this bit would worry me:

...provisions for the Prime Minister to assume prime responsibility for efforts to contain the disease

He's fairly inept.

turbbo

YFlyer wrote: »

.

Thanks for tidying that up there! People getting way too much craic out of a numerical mistake!

Doctor Jimbob

Drumpot wrote: »

Hes commenting on symptoms, that was the only piece I got from him. Think hes trying to dispel some myths - runny nose does not automatically Corana as only 4% of people thus far have runny rose as a sympom

Sensible message to get out there. Pity a huge amount of people won't listen and will end up clogging up emergency departments with the sniffles.

Drumpot

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XF6AZv8P3i4

"China have gotten really good at managing the disease which means you have an artificially high rate at the start. People are now coming to the hospital earlier so get medical attention quicker which slows down death rates".

"Are we ready to manage these people ? Have we studied this. THIS IS NOT FLU. This is more like SARS from a patholgy POV. One of the things I wanted to come back to , go after the transmission of the virus."

" I also worry when this gets into lower capacity, lower resourced countries"

"Young people question , seem to be very low digit stuff but what worries me is that we know about the older population , this population between 30-60, why are some of these progressing. Is it smoking ? Answer is No, they couldnt identify why people in this bracket are dieing. What is the needle in this haystack ?"

So the WHO is telling all governments to talk to their citizens.

That professor on Claire Byrne last night know sounds like an arsehole. Couldn’t even take the recommended time it takes to wash hands in the correct way. Just sing twinkle twinkle little star.

Wombatman

Would these lads be any good to fight it off I wonder?

storker

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

The WHO are a ****ing disgrace.

Yeah, we won't be fooled again!

BorneTobyWilde

WHO cares about all these people dying, they're doing what they can, but in all fairness what can they do. They have zero control.

YFlyer

glasso wrote: »

mortality rate said to be higher in people with poor numeric skills.

You mean to say the rate is lower?

macwal

Wombatman wrote: »

Would these lads be any good to fight it off I wonder?

Nah, get yerself one of these...

turbbo

Graces7 wrote: »

I get very angry when folk make statements about only the old etc. and also concerned about any lockdown situation, and supplies we all need getting to old folk

Lot of ignorant posts alright - it's macho stuff like it's only killing the old and the sick - the truth of it is there are massive unknowns and more prevention is needed rather than the "ah sure it'll be grand" attitude the Irish are known for.

BTW do people that post ignorant $hit like that not have friends or relatives that are vulnerable to something like this?

JDD

That's it lads, I'm buying twelve loaves of Brennan's on the way home.

RebelButtMunch

Wombatman wrote: »

Would these lads be any good to fight it off I wonder?

Yes, put one up each nostril, one over each eye and one in your mouth.

Cal04

On a different note, due to travel to Germany in a few days, would you go or be inclined to cancel?