Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

joe_99

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

The article does say that.

The source it's using to back up the claim does not.

Blame article in Healthline

froog

joe_99 wrote: »

At least 6.8 percent of people who developed the flu during the 2019–2020 flu season in the United States have died (as of February 2020), compared to around 2 percent of those diagnosed with the 2019 coronavirus.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2

please read stuff carefully before you post. that 6.8% figure is from patients presenting with both flu and pneumonia. i.e the serious cases. most flu cases do not lead to pneumonia.

Kaisr Sose

igCorcaigh wrote: »

So, I see that some sports organisation is getting a bit annoyed about events being cancelled.

They even see fit to meet one of our ministers.

How dare they put their business over the health of our population?

We have no idea what the talks are about. They may propose to play the game in an empty stadium. Unless they close the border, game or no game, a lot of Italian fans will travel anyway so we are kinda fecked anyway!

fr336

Deleted User wrote: »

The annual flu is an epidemic.....
Worst case scenario, this joins it.

What are you basing this conclusion on?

BanditLuke

It's really bizarre people attempting to downplay this. Have they actually been following whats going on in China since early January?

igCorcaigh

Sean 18 wrote: »

All these people saying it's like flu no it is not there's a vaccibt for the flu theirs a lot on Ireland on dialysis and receiving cancer treatment at least their somewhat protected from the flu with the vaccine there's no protection against this

I agree Sean.

My concern is about the impact on the health system, even if (fingers crossed) the death rate is low, we could see our hospitals in trouble.

bodhrandude

Deleted User wrote: »

Main reason is that I believe that mortality of the virus is overstated at the moment. Containment strategies like cancelling the Italy game will reduce the spread of the virus which will reduce acute overwhelming of the HSE.

Secondly. We actually do have a great health service. The fact that we should have an even better health service for the money is a discussion for another day.

We have one the highest health care professional/ capita ratios in the world.

There are plans in place in hospitals (all around the country) to deal with virus if/when it arrives. Just because the general public doesn't hear about it doesn't mean it's not happening.

The fact that we are coming into summer is also a bonus as viral illnesses decrease during the summer months as we are not so closely packed together.

A simple press and broadcast statement from the HSE Spokesperson stating the bolded would work a little wonder in reassuring the general public, don't you think.

Candamir

BanditLuke wrote: »

I've a family member who works within the HSE.

Look online I've no time to explain it to you.

As above.

Ask your family member what a tracheal aspirate involves.

joe_99

froog wrote: »

please read stuff carefully before you post. that 6.8% figure is from patients presenting with both flu and pneumonia. i.e the serious cases. most flu cases do not lead to pneumonia.

I quoted article it came from. I made no comment myself.

Jin luk

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Not necessarily, we have seasonal flu each year, which has a high death toll, unfortunately.

Pandemic is a new disease that spreads globally, yet does not necessarily cause high rates of deaths as flu.

Now, I hear that the WHO has changed their definition of pandemic, at just this point in time, to make the definition worthless.

A pandemic is a disease or virus epidemic, in more than 1 continent, its as clear as day action needs to be taken

Sean 18

That's the scary part they can't even manage the vomiting bug

Sean 18

That's the scary thing they can't even manage the vomiting bug

fr336

random_banter wrote: »

Here's an easy to understand example. People who are immunosupressed are very vulnerable to this virus according to all reports. For example, I have a good friend (a young person) with Lupus (an auto-immune disease) and resulting Kidney Disease. For this person, catching the coronavirus could be fatal.

Those comparing this with the flu aren't taking into account the amount of vulnerable people who are able to take action and protect themselves by getting the flu vaccine. There is no vaccine for this and we have been told that it is highly contagious.

This friend needs to travel for kidney dialysis to a major hospital x3 times per week. It's going to be very hard for this person to self isolate and try to avoid catching this when their life already depends on access to dialysis, at a hospital would could end up full of people with this virus. As someone who cares about this person, this makes me concerned, too.

It's a stressful current event for anyone in a vulnerable situation.

Thanks for that. Much appreciated. Hope your friend is not affected.

Galadriel

joe_99 wrote: »

I quoted article it came from. I made no comment myself.

Well that's worse! don't quote a random article if you have no 'opinion' on it or if you do not stand behind it.

Jin luk

Jin luk wrote: »

Last time i checked a pandemic is worse than an epidemic

For reasons of applying data. The seasonal flu is considered epidemic which is probably where this is heading. Initially it may be a pandemic but it'll settle into the same groove as the seasonal flu (if it gets there).

babybuilder

Was talking to an experienced front line nurse. They have had no guidance or instructions on a potential outbreak in Ireland.

joe_99

Galadriel wrote: »

Well that's worse! don't quote a random article if you have no 'opinion' on it or if you do not stand behind it.

It is good to present data from CDC

Dave0301

Galadriel wrote: »

Well that's worse! don't quote a random article if you have no 'opinion' on it or if you do not stand behind it.

It is easier to do that than admit he was wrong :pac:

igCorcaigh

BanditLuke wrote: »

It's really bizarre people attempting to downplay this. Have they actually been following whats going on in China since early January?

I know.

It's a difficult line to express, between hyping this up and downplaying to the point of dangerous compliancy.

Personally, I've been following this story for a while now, and have expressed my level of concern.

I'm no expert, but I'm concerned, personally, for my loved ones in the older age bracket.

fr336

fr336 wrote: »

What are you basing this conclusion on?

Based on if it has the mutational values of the seasonal flu.

joe_99

Dave0301 wrote: »

It is easier to do that than admit he was wrong :pac:

I presented data from CDC. I made no comment on it.

Dave0301

joe_99 wrote: »

It is good to present data from CDC

Not when the data is misrepresented.

Ficheall

joe_99 wrote: »

It is good to present data from CDC

You completely misrepresented the data, though.


If you can't understand it, it might be best not to post it.

fritzelly

joe_99 wrote: »

It is good to present data from CDC

You quoted the CDC site not the healthline article first

igCorcaigh

babybuilder wrote: »

Was talking to an experienced front line nurse. They have had no guidance or instructions on a potential outbreak in Ireland.

Really? I bet a lot of front line workers must be concerned.

joe_99

Dave0301 wrote: »

Not when the data is misrepresented.

By article not by CDC which is the interesting data that helps put context on debate

Galadriel

joe_99 wrote: »

It is good to present data from CDC

Yep, sure, fire away, have at it, eventually someone will believe the figures you keep 'quoting'.

joe_99

Galadriel wrote: »

Yep, sure, fire away, have at it, eventually someone will believe the figures you keep 'quoting'.

The CDC is a trusted body in my eyes

Dotsie~tmp

##

Dave0301 wrote: »

That value of 6.8% is just for that week...Once the flu season ends, it will probably drop down to about 0.1% for all closed cases.

Using that logic, the case fatality rate for COVID-19 is 9% right now. However, it will be lower than that once all the cases are closed.

What Dave is saying is that all virus lethality its expressed as a curve. A changing value of x (deaths per division, day for example) over y (time). At any one point in y, x (deaths) can vary wildly. But will always increase from zero, and return, eventually to zero.

The actual area under the curve is the dead and can be averaged over the outbreak. This actual lethality can only ever be know AFTER the outbreak is over.

Call Me Jimmy

Dazzler, assuming the death rate is at your upper limit of 1%, how many times more deadly is that then the flu? I know a vaccine would bring it down further.