Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

wakka12

Belfunk wrote: »

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.24.20027375v1

Probably tens of thousands in Italy then too surely. Italy has exported like a dozen cases internationally

BanditLuke

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1232604306936868865

BarryD2

Wash yer hands and we'll all be grand - that's about the level of advice so far from our esteemed leaders.

And don't forget to check the iodine tablets...

BanditLuke

Funny but true

https://twitter.com/eatmych0c/status/1232613498007490561

DrumSteve

Rhys Essien wrote: »

Seems to be a 13.7% fatality rate in Iran.

Are the true numbers coming to light.

https://twitter.com/Investingcom/status/1232601454206164992?s=19

139 confirmed cases is a pretty small sample size; but it's hard to tell if the % is accurate at this stage. I'd reckon there are a wholllle lot more cases going on over there at the moment.

Graces7

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I haven't prepared in that sense much; have plenty of canned food because I live on it anyway.

I live in the city centre, can't envisage food running out, so not too bothered.

I'm an office worker, so prepared to work at home if required.

My concern lies with my elderly parents, going to ring them and see if they need any extra provisions.

The problem is going to be not supplies running out, but needing to be out among people who might be infected ie the strong need for personal quarantine especially older folk.

The less contact the better so the more dried and tinned goods and OTC meds etc you and your parents have in the better. And the less risk of , if you do the shopping, you bringing infection with you

Working at home is great but pointless if you are going into crowded shops etc

In China they catered for this with some areas having food bags distributed

SeaBreezes

Belfunk wrote: »

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.24.20027375v1

Jeepers.
So they are saying, By the time the alarm bells start ringing and people are critical in hospital, the tsunami of infected are already incubating?

Bugger.

BarryD2

Graces7 wrote: »

The problem is going to be not supplies running out, but needing to be out among people who might be infected ie the strong need for personal quarantine especially older folk.

The less contact the better so the more dried and tinned goods and OTC meds etc you and your parents have in the better. And the less risk of , if you do the shopping, you bringing infection with you

Working at home is great but pointless if you are going into crowded shops etc

In China they catered for this with some areas having food bags distributed

Well you should be safe enough, unless the wind blows from the east

cnocbui

A 60-year-old man has become the first French victim of the coronavirus in the country, the health ministry announced Wednesday.

The man died overnight after being rushed to a Paris hospital in serious condition on Tuesday evening, bringing the total death toll in the country to two, said the ministry's deputy head Jerome Salomon.

In a televised statement, Salomon said a 60-year-old French man in a very serious condition was tested at Paris’ Pitie-Salpêtrière hospital late on Tuesday.

“Unfortunately (he) died during the night,” Salomon said.

The man was among three new cases of the virus announced in France on Wednesday.

One of the others was a 36-year-old man who had made repeated trips to the Italian region of Lombardy, but he doesn't have any severe symptoms, Salomon said.

The other is a Frenchman in the northern city of Amiens who is in intensive care, and an investigation is underway into where and how he contracted the virus, Salomon said.

The French government has asked citizens returning from Lombardy and the neighbouring Veneto region to avoid "all non-essential outings" and keep their children home from school.

The same recommendations have been issued for people returning from mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore and South Korea.

France has reported 17 cases of the virus, including two deaths.

The first victim was an 80-year-old Chinese tourist, who died in mid-February.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP, AP and REUTERS)

https://www.france24.com/en/20200226-france-reports-first-citizen-to-die-from-coronavirus-as-three-new-cases-confirmed

They should have a hundred cases at least with 2 deaths. They seem to have a problem with educating the public if someone rocks up to A&E only when at deaths door.

I suspect that people who describe cases as “mild” have never had a bona-fide dose of influenza or pneumonia in their lives. This kind of illness, at best, floors you. It attacks the LUNGS from the outset, there is nothing intrinsically mild about it. You will not be walking along singing a song to yourself with it upon you.

BanditLuke

For those of you who didn't catch his press conference , Dr. Bruce Aylward (renowned expert who led the team of experts on the ground in China), had a few alarming comments about the seriousness of the disease. ( source: https://youtu.be/-o0q1XMRKYM?t=3058 )

"The bottom line is this virus kills people... it kills our elderly and vulnerable... but this is not always the case - young people do die of this disease even in industrialized countries. People are looking at this saying that but in China they don't have this, they don't have that, etc. If I had COVID-19, I'd want to be treated in China. We'd go into these hospitals, how many ventilators do you have? 50-60. A scale we aren't used to seeing. How many ECMO systems do you have? 5. We don't have that in Europe. When we look at how dangerous this disease is, we have to be careful looking at the China data. China know how to keep people alive from COVID - they are super committed to it and they are making a massive investment in it. That is not going to be the case everywhere in the world.... It is a serious disease and I worry that people are going to look at the China numbers and get a false sense of security."

He also goes on to share during the question period that he doesn't think there is a significant "iceberg" of mild cases that we aren't seeing in China because some community testing hasn't really shown that. This is alarming to me and something I was really hoping for.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f9mxwn/for_those_of_you_who_didnt_catch_his_press/

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I suspect that people who describe cases as “mild” have never had a bona-fide dose of influenza or pneumonia in their lives. This kind of illness, at best, floors you. It attacks the LUNGS from the outset, there is nothing intrinsically mild about it. You will not be walking along singing a song to yourself with it upon you.

But that professor on Claire Byrne told us we need to sing twinkle twinkle little star whilst washing our hands, Cat!

wakka12

Deleted User wrote: »

I suspect that people who describe cases as “mild” have never had a bona-fide dose of influenza or pneumonia in their lives. This kind of illness, at best, floors you. It attacks the LUNGS from the outset, there is nothing intrinsically mild about it. You will not be walking along singing a song to yourself with it upon you.

Yes I have been interested to know what they mean by mild..mild in comparison to being in ICU or just mild as in like a cold

odyssey06

odyssey06 wrote: »

No regrettably... I read it protects against different kind of pnuemonia.

At least it helps prevent a co-morbid pneumococcal secondary infection. Every little helps. Good to have both Influenza & Pneumoccocal immunisation on board. You only have to get the pneumococcal one occasionally as I do.

gozunda

silverharp wrote: »

The age is worrying, late 40’s all things being equal ought not be a high risk group for getting pneumonia. Plus its my inlaws neck of the woods

I got pneumonia and hospitalised in my early twenties And not in any high risk group.

BarryD2

gozunda wrote: »

I got pneumonia and hospitalised in my early twenties And not in any high risk group.

Sure, if you get any sort of chest infection and don't take care, it can get in on you.

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

Yes I have been interested to know what they mean by mild..mild in comparison to being in ICU or just mild as in like a cold

A cold is an unpleasant thing that primarily hits the nasal cavity or trachea/larynx and sometimes the bronchi. Causes massive sniffles, an impressive barking cough and croaky voice that is painful to use and listen to. A cold/bronchitis declares itself loudly and proudly and arouses sympathy. CoViD-19 seems to just go straight and reasonably quietly “to the jugular”, silencing our breath in the worst cases and putting us sweating under the duvet at best. When you get it you are in for a prolonged rough ride physically and emotionally, let’s face it.

wakka12

gozunda wrote: »

I got pneumonia and hospitalised in my early twenties And not in any high risk group.

My uncle got it in his late twenties too and was seriously ill for a long time, he was completely healthy before. Not the norm but certainly not a vanishingly rare occurrence

BarryD2

BarryD2 wrote: »

Sure, if you get any sort of chest infection and don't take care, it can get in on you.

Not always due to taking care. If someone comes coughing near you that can be it. I’ve had pneumonia landing me in hospital without being “careless”.

Mwengwe

Thisonedone wrote: »

Only a brain dead moron would kick up a fuss about having to stay in their home for a few weeks, given that their are lives at risk here

The thing is if you're relatively young your life more or less isn't at risk. So in that sense I can see a lot of people flouting quarantine.

embraer170

Interesting list of things you can do to prepare:
https://www.itsjusttheflu.com/survival

Strawberry Milkshake

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

But that professor on Claire Byrne told us we need to sing twinkle twinkle little star whilst washing our hands, Cat!

I bet Japan has hand-washers installed that do the job for you. Put your hand in and water and soap pours on them followed by a rinse of water, a blow of the dryer, and a squirt of sanitiser, all to the tune of Twinkle Twinkle.

Fr_Dougal

Great news:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HD5k1-oe2BU

ThePopehimself

bennyl10 wrote: »

No where has banned flights,
the government are not responsible if this reaches here

Yes they have, See below:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/uae-halts-iran-flights-coronavirus-outbreak-200225100951409.html

"The United Arab Emirates UAE halts all Iran flights over coronavirus outbreak
Flight ban comes after Kuwait and Bahrain report coronavirus cases in people returning from Iran."

https://www.thelocal.de/20200214/german-airline-lufthansa-extends-china-flight-ban-over-coronavirus

"German airline Lufthansa extends China flight ban over coronavirus
“German airline giant Lufthansa said Friday it would prolong its suspension of flights to the Chinese mainland until March 28 over the novel coronavirus COVID-19.”

https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/world/article/3051149/coronavirus-travel-restrictions-on-china/index.html

"Countries that have imposed travel bans, visa restrictions and suspended flights to China, as of February 16, 2020."

(A very detailed list of flights banned in the above link)

BanditLuke

Mwengwe wrote: »

The thing is if you're relatively young your life more or less isn't at risk. So in that sense I can see a lot of people flouting quarantine.

Agreed which is a big worry. I'm seeing and hearing a lot of "sure it only kills old and sick people" type comments from the public and the media.

It's this I'm alright Jack thinking that sickens me.

BarryD2

Deleted User wrote: »

Not always due to taking care. If someone comes coughing near you that can be it. I’ve had pneumonia landing me in hospital without being “careless”.

Hmm... you'd have to be poorly first for that, compromised already....

Most ordinarily healthy people can deal with chest infections, colds and flus etc by staying in, keeping reasonably warm etc. By not taking care, I mean having a dose like that and then going out working outdoors, breathing hard in cold air etc. That's when it can take a turn for the worse.

whiskeyman

embraer170 wrote: »

Interesting list of things you can do to prepare:
https://www.itsjusttheflu.com/survival

That looks very official.

Reassuring to see the first link is to Reddit.

gozunda

BarryD2 wrote: »

Sure, if you get any sort of chest infection and don't take care, it can get in on you.

No. There was no symptoms of a 'chest infection' - I went from feeling well to being admitted to hospital in 24 hours. I was young fit and healthy up that point. I wouldn't wish the experience on anyone tbh

The point being made that Pneumonia is not limited to certain age categories.

SeaBreezes

BanditLuke wrote: »

For those of you who didn't catch his press conference , Dr. Bruce Aylward (renowned expert who led the team of experts on the ground in China), had a few alarming comments about the seriousness of the disease. ( source: https://youtu.be/-o0q1XMRKYM?t=3058 )

"The bottom line is this virus kills people... it kills our elderly and vulnerable... but this is not always the case - young people do die of this disease even in industrialized countries. People are looking at this saying that but in China they don't have this, they don't have that, etc. If I had COVID-19, I'd want to be treated in China. We'd go into these hospitals, how many ventilators do you have? 50-60. A scale we aren't used to seeing. How many ECMO systems do you have? 5. We don't have that in Europe. When we look at how dangerous this disease is, we have to be careful looking at the China data. China know how to keep people alive from COVID - they are super committed to it and they are making a massive investment in it. That is not going to be the case everywhere in the world.... It is a serious disease and I worry that people are going to look at the China numbers and get a false sense of security."

He also goes on to share during the question period that he doesn't think there is a significant "iceberg" of mild cases that we aren't seeing in China because some community testing hasn't really shown that. This is alarming to me and something I was really hoping for.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f9mxwn/for_those_of_you_who_didnt_catch_his_press/

Totally agree. We forget they have had experience with SARS,
They have equipment for respiratory disease and pandemics.
We are debating cancelling a fricking match...

And it looks like even when your 'cured' your still a carrier.
This maybe a good thing as you can get re-infected but not get sick?
Or maybe just the unreliable tests. They're incredibly inaccurate.


https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3051966/coronavirus-wuhan-quarantine-all-cured-patients-14-days-after?__twitter_impression=true

In the southwestern city of Chengdu, a patient initially discharged on February 10, after meeting the standard for having recovered, was readmitted to hospital nine days later when they tested positive again during a check-up. In another case in Changde, a city in Hunan province in central China, a woman tested positive on February 9, five days after she was released from quarantine at a local hospital having tested negative in two previous laboratory test

darjeeling

A follow-up to my earlier post, now I've finished watching the 2nd half of
Bruce Aylward's responses to the journalists' questions.


Early symptoms:
90% have fever, 70% dry cough. Many report feeling fatigue / malaise and general achiness a day or two earlier.
These are lower respiratory infection symptoms [similar to flu]
But - says that the pathology is not that of flu [even if it begins similarly]

Typical cold symptoms are rare: only 4% report runny nose.
'This is not an upper respiratory tract infection'


He talks of the need to isolate people in hospital when they are sick, not leave them at home where they can transmit to other family members.
Says that people should seek treatment before disease progresses to severe, because that leads to much worse chance of survival.
Time from people getting sick to hospitalisation in Wuhan has dropped from 15 days to 3, meaning less spread, better survival.

China's on-the-case learning has meant that patient survival has gone up and hospital cross-infection down, including that of healthcare providers.
All countries facing infection need to learn from what has been learned there, to expect this disease to appear tomorrow, and to stop it when it does.

This means:

- Make the population aware of how they play their part - hand washing, vigilance - have a 'high index of suspicion' -
i.e. be alert to what your body is telling you, especially if you know someone who has been sick or have any reason to think you have been in contact with someone infected.

- Isolate cases, then trace and quarantine close contacts, advise self-monitoring for low risk contacts.
NB - 10% of close contacts become infected
This will require trained contact-tracers, so countries need to have people ready.

- Step up diagnostic and treatment capacity:
Large numbers will need to be tested for active virus, and CT-scanned (traditional lung X-ray may not show up disease)
Cases will need to be isolated in separate wards, with staff using PPE.


Current state of testing:
Virus testing for cases is still via PCR methods, there is no rapid test.
Antibody testing - expects an age-stratified approach to see if e.g. children have been infected, meaning they are more susceptible to spread disease again once schools reopen. This will inform future containment strategies.


Comments below the video are pretty dismal, but hey, it's youtube, and the guy talking is the one who was in China with a team of experts, not the BTL commenters who claim to know the real deal.