Predict cabinet of Grand coalition government

Long_Wave

Taoiseach Michael Martin
Tánaiste Leo Varadkar
Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Covney
Minister for Finance Pascal Donohoe
Minister for public expenditure Micheal McGrath.
Minister for Justice Jim O'Callaghan
Minister for Communications, Climate Action and Environment Stephen Donnelly
Minister for Business, Enterprise and Innovation Josepha Madigan. Minister for Agriculture, Barry Cowen Minister for Transport, Tourism and Sport Micheal creed.
Minister for Social Protection Willie O'Dee,
Minister for Rural, Community Development, arts & the Gaeltacht Dara Calleary,
Minister for Housing, Planning and Local Government Sean Fleming. Minister for Education, Heather Humpries. Minister for Health and children Helen McEntee. Super junior minister for defence Micheal Ring + junior ministrys for Dennis Naughton, Sean Canny and a few others

Bass Reeves

There is fifteen ministers Inc Toiseach and 4-5 super junior. I suspect the split will be FF 7 ministers Inc Toiseach. FG 6 Inc Tainste . Greens two ministers. There is one huge spanner in the ointment, Martin, McGrath and Convey are all from the same constituency. Vradker will insist on Covney as his deputy getting minstery. I will use existing minsteries even though there may be a rejig of them. At present there are five junior minister attending Cabonet

Toiseach Micheal Martin
Tainste and minister for Foreign Affairs Leo Vradker
Finance and public expenditure Dara Calleary
Housing and planning Simon Coveney
Health Barry Cowen
Communication and climate action Eamon Ryan
Justice Heather Humphreys
Education and skills Simon Harris
Agriculture Joe McHugh
Transport and tourism Catherine Martin
Employment and Social protection Jim O Callaghan
Culture, Heritage &Gael Eamon O Cuiv
Children and youth affairs Ann Rabbit
Business and Innovation Richard Bruton
Rural and community affairs Thomas Byrne

Junior attending cabinet
chief Whip and Defence Micheal NcGrath
European Affairs Helen McEntee
Higher Education Eoghan Murphy
Disabilities Roderic O Gorman
Defence Willie O Dea
Gaeltach Brendan Smith


A few pointers, there will be a lot of unhappy senior people in both FF and FG. The pressure will be on for all parties to appoint a female minister.. In FF there will have to be an attempt to bring thise that wanted SF as the choice for government on board. That is why O'Cuiv may get a ministry. Helen McEntee may be under pressure to stay in European affairs as FF may want a minister with an input to Brexit but there may be s need for some continuity as well. No party will want Health but FF may have to take it as they have Finance. Housing may not be a real banna skin as some of the heavy lifting may already be done. Greens will want minister involved in climate however it hard to see them get two high profile minsteries but they will be.looking for transport as well I have given it to them but would not be surprised if they got a lower profile ministery and get climate or transport tagged on to a junior ministery

whatawaster

If it’s FF/FG/Green then I’d expect a 6/6/3 cabinet split

Greens have a lot of bargaining power so can demand more than their fair share of senior and junior ministries. They can also drag the government to the left (like the PDs were able to drag FF to the right in the 90s)

FF ministers: Martin, Calleary, Rabitte, Byrne, O’Brien, O’Callaghan

FG ministers: Varadkar, Coveney, McEntee, Madigan, Donoghue, Harris

GP ministers: Ryan, Martin, Hourigan

whatawaster

Bass Reeves wrote: »

There is fifteen ministers Inc Toiseach and 4-5 super junior. I suspect the split will be FF 7 ministers Inc Toiseach. FG 6 Inc Tainste . Greens two ministers. There is one huge spanner in the ointment, Martin, McGrath and Convey are all from the same constituency. Vradker will insist on Covney as his deputy getting minstery. I will use existing minsteries even though there may be a rejig of them. At present there are five junior minister attending Cabonet

Toiseach Micheal Martin
Tainste and minister for Foreign Affairs Leo Vradker
Finance and public expenditure Dara Calleary
Housing and planning Simon Coveney
Health Barry Cowen
Communication and climate action Eamon Ryan
Justice Heather Humphreys
Education and skills Simon Harris
Agriculture Joe McHugh
Transport and tourism Catherine Martin
Employment and Social protection Jim O Callaghan
Culture, Heritage &Gael Eamon O Cuiv
Children and youth affairs Ann Rabbit
Business and Innovation Richard Bruton
Rural and community affairs Thomas Byrne

Junior attending cabinet
chief Whip and Defence Micheal NcGrath
European Affairs Helen McEntee
Higher Education Eoghan Murphy
Disabilities Roderic O Gorman
Defence Willie O Dea
Gaeltach Brendan Smith


A few pointers, there will be a lot of unhappy senior people in both FF and FG. The pressure will be on for all parties to appoint a female minister.. In FF there will have to be an attempt to bring thise that wanted SF as the choice for government on board. That is why O'Cuiv may get a ministry. Helen McEntee may be under pressure to stay in European affairs as FF may want a minister with an input to Brexit but there may be s need for some continuity as well. No party will want Health but FF may have to take it as they have Finance. Housing may not be a real banna skin as some of the heavy lifting may already be done. Greens will want minister involved in climate however it hard to see them get two high profile minsteries but they will be.looking for transport as well I have given it to them but would not be surprised if they got a lower profile ministery and get climate or transport tagged on to a junior ministery

No way FF get more ministries, Taoiseach and Finance

If anything they have the weakest bargaining position; because of Martin’s utter desperation to be in government

dxhound2005

Bass Reeves wrote: »

There is fifteen ministers Inc Toiseach and 4-5 super junior. I suspect the split will be FF 7 ministers Inc Toiseach. FG 6 Inc Tainste . Greens two ministers. There is one huge spanner in the ointment, Martin, McGrath and Convey are all from the same constituency. Vradker will insist on Covney as his deputy getting minstery. I will use existing minsteries even though there may be a rejig of them. At present there are five junior minister attending Cabonet

Toiseach Micheal Martin
Tainste and minister for Foreign Affairs Leo Vradker
Finance and public expenditure Dara Calleary
Housing and planning Simon Coveney
Health Barry Cowen
Communication and climate action Eamon Ryan
Justice Heather Humphreys
Education and skills Simon Harris
Agriculture Joe McHugh
Transport and tourism Catherine Martin
Employment and Social protection Jim O Callaghan
Culture, Heritage &Gael Eamon O Cuiv
Children and youth affairs Ann Rabbit
Business and Innovation Richard Bruton
Rural and community affairs Thomas Byrne

Junior attending cabinet
chief Whip and Defence Micheal NcGrath
European Affairs Helen McEntee
Higher Education Eoghan Murphy
Disabilities Roderic O Gorman
Defence Willie O Dea
Gaeltach Brendan Smith


A few pointers, there will be a lot of unhappy senior people in both FF and FG. The pressure will be on for all parties to appoint a female minister.. In FF there will have to be an attempt to bring thise that wanted SF as the choice for government on board. That is why O'Cuiv may get a ministry. Helen McEntee may be under pressure to stay in European affairs as FF may want a minister with an input to Brexit but there may be s need for some continuity as well. No party will want Health but FF may have to take it as they have Finance. Housing may not be a real banna skin as some of the heavy lifting may already be done. Greens will want minister involved in climate however it hard to see them get two high profile minsteries but they will be.looking for transport as well I have given it to them but would not be surprised if they got a lower profile ministery and get climate or transport tagged on to a junior ministery

There shouldn't be any consideration given to geography. If the best people were all from Dublin and Leinster then so be it. You are less concerned by female representation judging from your picks. But the female lobby would be unhappy with only four (if I counted correctly).

Bobtheman

The whole thing is a mistake. Why are they not bringing in SF so they can be exposed to reality ?

RandomName2

Bobtheman wrote: »

The whole thing is a mistake. Why are they not bringing in SF so they can be exposed to reality ?

SF would refuse to join a FF-FG coalition

J_1980

Bobtheman wrote: »

The whole thing is a mistake. Why are they not bringing in SF so they can be exposed to reality ?

It’s better to expose them in a recession, not when the government revenues are high.
Left wing governments have a 100% track record of failure in such an environment (Hollande in France, syriza etc). While they can survive for longer than expected when entering government in a boom (Hugo Chavez comes to mind, could steal american oil assets and ride the oil boom for almost a decade). The endgame is always failure.

Floppybits

Bobtheman wrote: »

The whole thing is a mistake. Why are they not bringing in SF so they can be exposed to reality ?

It is a mistake for FF and FG because unless they make headway on the issues such as housing and health then they are going to be slaughtered. They pressure is going to be on each and everyone one of the ministers from day 1 there will be no honeymoon period.

Also this means that SF will be the leaders of the opposition and they will be attacking them from the get go.

Bass Reeves

There both danger and opportunity for any government at present. While there is risk of recession , this will also stop the economy overheating. It will also dampen expectations. If government is willing to stay the 5years then there is huge upside as well. A government with a majority will have the NAMA bonus predicted to be 4-6 billion.
If the stock market recovers in late 2022 there will be an opportunity to sell AIB and BOI. It should have been done on 2015/2016 but a minority government was never going to be allowed to access that windfall by the opposition.
Finally there the jackpot of the Apple tax. That will be adjudicated on in the next 3 years. 15-20 billion to to spend.

A government could be ambitious and start building houses in a recession which would benefit the economy in the short-term
If we enter recession and hope for an upturn I 2024 and call an election as late as possible in the cycle

Robert McGrath

Bobtheman wrote: »

The whole thing is a mistake. Why are they not bringing in SF so they can be exposed to reality ?

I’d prefer if a government was formed on the basis of the result of the election we’ve just had rather than a prediction of the result of the next election. Who knows what will happen during the life of this government? Just get on with it