Corona Virus and events

sideswipe · 12-03-2020 9:55pm

Boston pushed back to autumn.

cfeeneyinterior · 12-03-2020 10:09pm

Lough boora half is cancelled. Parkruns cancelled...https://www.facebook.com/611086705654359/posts/2839304286165912/

Dudda · 12-03-2020 10:50pm

Anyone know of anything bucking the trend and not cancelled in Ireland and have confirmed they're going ahead following today's announcement on the 500 outdoor limit?
That might be a shorter list than what's cancelled.

cfeeneyinterior · 12-03-2020 10:54pm

Dudda wrote: »

Anyone know of anything bucking the trend and not cancelled in Ireland and have confirmed they're going ahead following today's announcement on the 500 outdoor limit?
That might be a shorter list than what's cancelled.

I would say it's safe to say now that everything is cancelled.

Murph_D · 12-03-2020 11:30pm

Dudda wrote: »

Anyone know of anything bucking the trend and not cancelled in Ireland and have confirmed they're going ahead following today's announcement on the 500 outdoor limit?
That might be a shorter list than what's cancelled.

parkruns In the six counties still going ahead for now anyway.

robinph · 13-03-2020 12:09am

Two posts on Twitter this evening from people who would know in advance about London, but both basically saying the same thing about not throwing abuse at race organisers who cancel events and there are bigger things to worry about.

Spidey senses are tingling for some announcement tomorrow.

adrian522 · 13-03-2020 1:08am

It's been obvious for quite some time that London and other major marathons wouldn't be going ahead, it would be madness to even consider holding them.

sideswipe · 13-03-2020 8:30am

I imagine most race organisers are waiting on governmental directives. Boris seems to be going down the route of the cat being out of the bag with this. It seems they want to try to keep a sense of normality and protect the economy even if the price is loss of life because that is inevitable anyway. I suppose we'll soon find out which approach is correct, I do think the NHS may get over whelmed and they'll have no choice but to follow suit with the other badly affected countries of Europe and ourselves.

caff · 13-03-2020 11:14am

cfeeneyinterior wrote: »

I would say it's safe to say now that everything is cancelled.

The Ros run appears determined to go ahead as its below 500

cfeeneyinterior · 13-03-2020 11:20am

caff wrote: »

The Ros run appears determined to go ahead as its below 500

Jesus, do they not have access to tv or radio. That's madness

robinph · 13-03-2020 11:21am

In theory it should spread less quickly in newly infected countries now anyway because everyone is aware of it and will naturally be making small adjustments to their activities, but it's still assumed that 80% of a population is going to get it regardless of what you do.

The UK thinking is that shutting things down now would be temporarily effective at slowing the spread, but then after a month those measures are not longer working and people stop isolating then everyone catches it at the same time and you have a massive spike in infections a couple of weeks later. So the UK plan is to mildly change behaviours now, excessive hand washing and anyone with even a mild cough to be isolated and assumed to have it. That doesn't slow down the spread as quickly right now, but does mean that you can still implement the lockdown scenario a few weeks later then the spread is nearer it's peak and it will have more effect.

You still end up with 80% of the population getting it in either scenario, just trying to anticipate the peak and reduce that. They are going for the smoothing the curve rather than pushing the spike back by two weeks.

Dudda · 13-03-2020 11:55am

caff wrote: »

The Ros run appears determined to go ahead as its below 500

All I can see is this post from two days ago before the 500 limit in Ireland was announced. They were guessing the 5000 limit based on other countries I think. This is where the confusion is as it's 5000 not 500.

All systems go from us.
Only events over 5000 people will be called off.
2d

They don't have any posts from Authors or organisers from after the 500 announcement was made yesterday. Not on their facebook anyway that I can see.
https://www.facebook.com/therosrun/

And the site where you register have them listed as postponed but have them on the wrong day 29th which could be just a mistake.
https://www.popupraces.ie/2020/03/events-update-covid-19-corona-virus/

I think its cancelled and just poor housekeeping on the FB page and popupraces page.

average_runner · 13-03-2020 12:24pm

robinph wrote: »

In theory it should spread less quickly in newly infected countries now anyway because everyone is aware of it and will naturally be making small adjustments to their activities, but it's still assumed that 80% of a population is going to get it regardless of what you do.

The UK thinking is that shutting things down now would be temporarily effective at slowing the spread, but then after a month those measures are not longer working and people stop isolating then everyone catches it at the same time and you have a massive spike in infections a couple of weeks later. So the UK plan is to mildly change behaviours now, excessive hand washing and anyone with even a mild cough to be isolated and assumed to have it. That doesn't slow down the spread as quickly right now, but does mean that you can still implement the lockdown scenario a few weeks later then the spread is nearer it's peak and it will have more effect.

You still end up with 80% of the population getting it in either scenario, just trying to anticipate the peak and reduce that. They are going for the smoothing the curve rather than pushing the spike back by two weeks.

But can the NHS handle the numbers?

Ireland's action is to slow down the spread so ICU can handle the cases and hopefully save more lives.

caff · 13-03-2020 12:34pm

Dudda wrote: »

All I can see is this post from two days ago before the 500 limit in Ireland was announced. They were guessing the 5000 limit based on other countries I think. This is where the confusion is as it's 5000 not 500.

They don't have any posts from Authors or organisers from after the 500 announcement was made yesterday. Not on their facebook anyway that I can see.
https://www.facebook.com/therosrun/

And the site where you register have them listed as postponed but have them on the wrong day 29th which could be just a mistake.
https://www.popupraces.ie/2020/03/events-update-covid-19-corona-virus/

I think its cancelled and just poor housekeeping on the FB page and popupraces page.

They had posts yesterday on fb about it still going ahead but then deleted them last night
Mail just sent out that it's cancelled

robinph · 13-03-2020 12:37pm

average_runner wrote: »

But can the NHS handle the numbers?

Ireland's action is to slow down the spread so ICU can handle the cases and hopefully save more lives.

Don't think anywhere will be able to handle the numbers.

The UK approach is to try to take the top off the peak infection period and reduce the total number of infections happening at that peak by spreading it out either side.

The alternative is to try to slow things down now and hope that when summer comes around the health service will have enough capacity to deal with a bigger peak over a shorter time.

We don't know yet which is the right way. Ireland has the benefit of bank holiday next week which reduces the impact on peoples work lives quite as much in the run up to easter so you get a free week of people being mildly accepting of the shutdown for a touch longer. The UK will probably do the likes of a school shut down after next week, which then leads into easter and they can probably then go a week after as well before things fall apart too much.

It is being presented as if the UK are doing nothing, but they have changed things significantly in that people won't be going into work with mild coughs and most companies are going to be doing home working wherever possible by next week and that will have a major impact on spread.

solidasarock · 13-03-2020 2:05pm

Gaelforce Bray 10k has finally been postponed

average_runner · 13-03-2020 2:39pm

robinph wrote: »

Don't think anywhere will be able to handle the numbers.

The UK approach is to try to take the top off the peak infection period and reduce the total number of infections happening at that peak by spreading it out either side.

The alternative is to try to slow things down now and hope that when summer comes around the health service will have enough capacity to deal with a bigger peak over a shorter time.

We don't know yet which is the right way. Ireland has the benefit of bank holiday next week which reduces the impact on peoples work lives quite as much in the run up to easter so you get a free week of people being mildly accepting of the shutdown for a touch longer. The UK will probably do the likes of a school shut down after next week, which then leads into easter and they can probably then go a week after as well before things fall apart too much.

It is being presented as if the UK are doing nothing, but they have changed things significantly in that people won't be going into work with mild coughs and most companies are going to be doing home working wherever possible by next week and that will have a major impact on spread.

I say we be working from home for at least 5 weeks in Ireland. UK starting to backtrack already, with premier league getting cancelled.

robinph · 13-03-2020 2:45pm

average_runner wrote: »

I say we be working from home for at least 5 weeks in Ireland. UK starting to backtrack already, with premier league getting cancelled.

I don't think that is a backtrack. That is just the equivalent of one employer shutting down their office after a couple of staff got diagnosed so in line with what has been said to do.

rovers_runner · 13-03-2020 2:53pm

London postponed.
Hearing it could clash with Dublin.
Boston will be earlier in Oct so as not to clash with NY.
London later in Oct not to clash with Berlin.

robinph · 13-03-2020 2:55pm

rovers_runner wrote: »

London postponed.
Hearing it could clash with Dublin.
Boston will be earlier in Oct so as not to clash with NY.
London later in Oct not to clash with Berlin.

Where have you seen that, nothing showing for me yet.

rovers_runner · 13-03-2020 3:00pm

robinph wrote: »

Where have you seen that, nothing showing for me yet.

Boston announcement due this evening.
London holding out to manage the schedule.
There will be a big city marathon every week from early Oct to early Nov pending clearance by then.

Boston : Sept 14
Berlin : Sept 27
Chicago : Oct 11
Paris : Oct 18
Dublin : Oct 25
Barca: Oct 25
NY : Nov 1

London : Oct 4th or Oct 25th likely

robinph · 13-03-2020 3:55pm

Boston confirmed date:

https://www.si.com/olympics/2020/03/13/boston-marathon-postponed-coronavirus-outbreak-massachusetts-september-14-2020

justdoit · 13-03-2020 4:03pm

robinph wrote: »

Boston confirmed date:

https://www.si.com/olympics/2020/03/13/boston-marathon-postponed-coronavirus-outbreak-massachusetts-september-14-2020

Five week turnaround for the likes of Stephen Scullion who had been targeting both Boston and the Olympics (assuming both can go ahead). Less than ideal- some serious planning required.

I'm surprised to see new dates being confirmed already when there is no absolute clarity on when the impact of the virus will peak...

jlang · 13-03-2020 4:19pm

justdoit wrote: »

I'm surprised to see new dates being confirmed already when there is no absolute clarity on when the impact of the virus will peak...

They can go on to cancel outright or defer entries to next year but if they don't at least claim an Autumn date, then they're at risk of all the good dates being taken - and they'd be under pressure to give instant refunds. Most runners could only do one race, but it matters for the news cycle. Still all Sundays except Boston but they usually have the cover of Patriot's Day public holiday. Is the Monday 14th special in Massachusetts?

py · 13-03-2020 4:51pm

Connemarathon postponed.

average_runner · 13-03-2020 5:12pm

Could see some entries popping up in these marathons now

robinph · 13-03-2020 5:41pm

jlang wrote: »

They can go on to cancel outright or defer entries to next year but if they don't at least claim an Autumn date, then they're at risk of all the good dates being taken - and they'd be under pressure to give instant refunds. Most runners could only do one race, but it matters for the news cycle. Still all Sundays except Boston but they usually have the cover of Patriot's Day public holiday. Is the Monday 14th special in Massachusetts?

I think they were trying to get a new bill passed to make it a holiday day.