Corona Virus and events

MY BAD

National indoors cancelled
https://www.athleticsireland.ie/news/athletics-ireland-confirms-cancellation-of-irish-life-health-national-indoor-championships?fbclid=IwAR38JT7aiwib0KXgH01ETttfQ29egbAeP_Nm4ilEFWtiyF-Wd91oA9isNCM

Chivito550

MY BAD wrote: »

National indoors cancelled
https://www.athleticsireland.ie/news/athletics-ireland-confirms-cancellation-of-irish-life-health-national-indoor-championships?fbclid=IwAR38JT7aiwib0KXgH01ETttfQ29egbAeP_Nm4ilEFWtiyF-Wd91oA9isNCM

They were never going to happen sadly.

Ceepo

Chivito550 wrote: »

They were never going to happen sadly.

Thats true.
It will be hard to see what AI come up with to give Elites a chance of getting a spot at euros.
Its not like we are blessed with our depth of athletes through the different events.

patob

Dingle Half postponed until May 2022. Oh well, what's another year.

event

The full postponed until September. Thats adventurous

daydorunrun

Well folks anybody want to hazard a guess as to when races will start to reappear?

I'm guessing maybe small events come July/August. Might be over optimistic.

UM1

daydorunrun wrote: »

Well folks anybody want to hazard a guess as to when races will start to reappear?

I'm guessing maybe small events come July/August. Might be over optimistic.

One or two races stickin there neck out for dates at mo

ultrapercy

The general tone is a lot less positive than youd think it should be considering theres a vax now. Maybe the vaccine isn't the game changer we hoped it would be? We could be in this stop start limbo for a while yet.

Stark

ultrapercy wrote: »

The general tone is a lot less positive than youd think it should be considering theres a vax now. Maybe the vaccine isn't the game changer we hoped it would be? We could be in this stop start limbo for a while yet.

The vaccines are excellent by all account (In all the trials, no-one who was in the vaccine group ended up dead or in hospital and that includes trials where the vaccine resistant variants were widespread). The Zero Covid crowd are showing themselves up to be a bit of a cult now that the end is in sight. The negativity is because we'll never eliminate SARS-COV-2 from the island of Ireland like they're hoping for. But we can make it a manageable endemic disease with mild symptoms through vaccination and live normally alongside it like we do for the flu and other endemic diseases.

Between now and herd immunity will still be rough though as vaccines only partially reduce transmission, they're pretty much going in order of "lowest number of social contacts first" for the rollout program and we have the UK variant to worry about which is extremely transmissible. So can't really make bets on anything all adults have been offered a vaccine. But after that, I'm happy to make the bet that life goes back to normal.

Annie get your Run

There's a website doing the rounds where you can put in your age, your health status and other info and it gives you a guide to when you'll be vaccinated. There are between 1.5 & 2 million people ahead of me in the Q so my predicted date is between Feb 2022 and March 2023....it puts a whole different complexion on things. That's based on 75,000 vaccines a week so obviously will go up or down depending on actual numbers vaccinated.

Stark

Expect things to accelerate significantly in Q2. We won't be waiting till 2022. Most people should be offered their first shot some time in June/July and second shot in September/October for full immunity (assuming Astrazenaca 12 week spacing). If we get J&J/Novavax approval and supply, that'll help things along even more. Indications are that most healthy people will have very good protection before 12 weeks from the first AZ shot so we could see things being significantly more relaxed in August.

robinph

Just flung my stats into one of those calculators which had the option to also change which country you were in. UK version says I'll be done within the next month, Irish one says November.

Would expect it to be massively quicker than that in Ireland though, the prediction is just based on the rate of vaccination so far, and that should massively speed up for Ireland... And slow down for the UK as they switch to doing more 2nd jabs.

Edit: the current rate per day for the whole of Ireland is about the same as they are doing in each individual mass vaccine centre in the UK at the likes of converted football stadiums and conference centres. Once they get a couple of those setup around Dublin and a handful of similar elsewhere it's possible to get huge numbers done quickly. The UK is sometimes reaching 1% of the population in a single day. It is possible to move very quickly with vaccines.

Stark

robinph wrote: »

Edit: the current rate per day for the whole of Ireland is about the same as they are doing in each individual mass vaccine centre in the UK at the likes of converted football stadiums and conference centres. Once they get a couple of those setup around Dublin and a handful of similar elsewhere it's possible to get huge numbers done quickly. The UK is sometimes reaching 1% of the population in a single day. It is possible to move very quickly with vaccines.

The only constraint I can see is on the supply side (getting the vaccines from manufacturers). Once we have them, there shouldn't really be an issue scaling up to get them into peoples' arms.

At the moment, the only reason we don't have more mass vaccination centres is there's no need for them. We're 100% waiting on manufacturers to deliver them to us. A point the media seems to keep missing.

Chivito550

Annie get your Run wrote: »

There's a website doing the rounds where you can put in your age, your health status and other info and it gives you a guide to when you'll be vaccinated. There are between 1.5 & 2 million people ahead of me in the Q so my predicted date is between Feb 2022 and March 2023....it puts a whole different complexion on things. That's based on 75,000 vaccines a week so obviously will go up or down depending on actual numbers vaccinated.

Pay no heed to that. It's a complete waste of time and has been widely dismissed as such.

ultrapercy

Stark wrote: »

The vaccines are excellent by all account (In all the trials, no-one who was in the vaccine group ended up dead or in hospital and that includes trials where the vaccine resistant variants were widespread). The Zero Covid crowd are showing themselves up to be a bit of a cult now that the end is in sight. The negativity is because we'll never eliminate SARS-COV-2 from the island of Ireland like they're hoping for. But we can make it a manageable endemic disease with mild symptoms through vaccination and live normally alongside it like we do for the flu and other endemic diseases.

Between now and herd immunity will still be rough though as vaccines only partially reduce transmission, they're pretty much going in order of "lowest number of social contacts first" for the rollout program and we have the UK variant to worry about which is extremely transmissible. So can't really make bets on anything all adults have been offered a vaccine. But after that, I'm happy to make the bet that life goes back to normal.

Yes the vaccines are a miracle realy in terms of the time it took to develop them. It makes you wonder what other cures could be developed if economics was the main motivator. I agree re zero covid, a lot of "experts" now that hindsight has improved their vision. For a country like Ireland zero covid would be a near impossible mission. My original post was not based on any data or facts its more a vibe I'm getting from government and media. There isn't the optimisim I thought a vaccine would bring. Maybe its a fear the public will let their gaurd down with the finish line in sight? Hopefully the spring/summer will bring a more upbeat attitude.

Murph_D

ultrapercy wrote: »

...There isn't the optimisim I thought a vaccine would bringn. Maybe its a fear the public will let their gaurd down with the finish line in sight? Hopefully the spring/summer will bring a more upbeat attitude.

Our optimistic moment came with the vaccine and went with the Christmas sh*tshow, surely? Optimism has to be tempered with a realistic appreciation of the vaccination timeline. What happened all over Ireland was an embarrassment. Read some of the reports about Christmas in Mayo, for example (and a December All-Ireland didn’t help). Throw in a mutating virus and we get to where we are now. I’m still optimistic, but within the constraints we are under, in terms of supply and distribution of the vaccine.

Races will return. Just not next week, or next month. Patience is what we need, more than optimism.

pc11

Ceepo wrote: »

It will be interesting to see if they can manage to get up to 250.,000 logistically.

3,500 GPs in Ireland, plus many more nurses, pharmacies, hospital docs, paramedics, etc.

If we have supply, 250,000 in a week is very doable.

One person in the right set-up can do 10 an hour easy.

I did 30+ flu jabs all by myself in 2.5 hours.

skyblue46

pc11 wrote: »

3,500 GPs in Ireland, plus many more nurses, pharmacies, hospital docs, paramedics, etc.

If we have supply, 250,000 in a week is very doable.

One person in the right set-up can do 10 an hour easy.

I did 30+ flu jabs all by myself in 2.5 hours.

Just listened to Sam McConkey and Leo Varadkar on The Last Word. Very sobering to be honest. Leo says there will be no non essential international travel until the early part of 2022. McConkey suggests we are in for a period of 3-5 years of restrictions at home. None of this bodes well for the prospects of any mass gatherings. Both seemed strongly of the opinion that the vaccines are not silver bullets and that many other controls will need to be kept in place.

Lambay island

skyblue46 wrote: »

Just listened to Sam McConkey and Leo Varadkar on The Last Word. Very sobering to be honest. Leo says there will be no non essential international travel until the early part of 2022. McConkey suggests we are in for a period of 3-5 years of restrictions at home. None of this bodes well for the prospects of any mass gatherings. Both seemed strongly of the opinion that the vaccines are not silver bullets and that many other controls will need to be kept in place.

Yeh I listened to that too, not very pleasant hearing although McConkey has had a few wild predictions in the last year.

ger664

Vaccines will only a be silver bullet if they prevent transmission of the virus. Not enough data on this yet which is why Leo and Co are taking the cautious approach.

echat

2021 looks like a write-off, it may become known as the year of the variants as South Africa halts roll-out of AZ vaccine

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55975052

Border controls being tightened https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0209/1195912-covid-19-ireland/

Chivito550

skyblue46 wrote: »

Just listened to Sam McConkey and Leo Varadkar on The Last Word. Very sobering to be honest. Leo says there will be no non essential international travel until the early part of 2022. McConkey suggests we are in for a period of 3-5 years of restrictions at home. None of this bodes well for the prospects of any mass gatherings. Both seemed strongly of the opinion that the vaccines are not silver bullets and that many other controls will need to be kept in place.

https://twitter.com/EwanMacKenna/status/1359211137397620743?s=20

Never thought I'd agree with Ewan McKenna so much. Why McKonkey gets so much time on TV/radio I don't know!

event

Chivito550 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/EwanMacKenna/status/1359211137397620743?s=20

Never thought I'd agree with Ewan McKenna so much. Why McKonkey gets so much time on TV/radio I don't know!

Just, no :pac:

average_runner

echat wrote: »

2021 looks like a write-off, it may become known as the year of the variants as South Africa halts roll-out of AZ vaccine

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55975052

Border controls being tightened https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0209/1195912-covid-19-ireland/

At this rate all the big marathons around the world will be off again. Might have elite only.


Olympics is under serious pressure also. Might be better to extend the olympics over alonger period or spread it out between countries.




Its a financial drain on a country in most circumstances and the general public always feel the cost of it. So sharing it out over the world might be a better approach in the long run

Chivito550

average_runner wrote: »

At this rate all the big marathons around the world will be off again. Might have elite only.


Olympics is under serious pressure also. Might be better to extend the olympics over alonger period or spread it out between countries.




Its a financial drain on a country in most circumstances and the general public always feel the cost of it. So sharing it out over the world might be a better approach in the long run

So a series of World Championships essentially.

That is not an Olympic Games.

robinph

average_runner wrote: »

At this rate all the big marathons around the world will be off again. Might have elite only.

With most of the UK at risk population due to be vaccinated within the next 2 months, I'm still waiting for mine yet, and the rest expected to only take another couple of months after that what is anticipated to go so wrong between now and then? International travel for marathons for regular people might still be off until wider vacation globally, but the elite event last October worked for London and no reason the elites can't do similar off the front of the main field this year.

Olympics not getting any international spectators will be a problem for Japan admittedly, but should be able to have the competition.

opus

Lambay island wrote: »

Yeh I listened to that too, not very pleasant hearing although McConkey has had a few wild predictions in the last year.

I was listening as well while on a rather chilly run after work. Between Leo & him it was a bit depressing tbh but a friend of mine pointed out that Mr McConkey has previously predicted ~100k deaths in Ireland from CV-19 which thankfully was very wrong.

Didn't just want to take my buddy's word but when I checked this morning he did indeed predict that.

We had Professor Sam McConkey, the expert epidemiologist who predicted there could be between 80,000 and 120,000 deaths in Ireland from coronavirus. The Government at the time said they were taking such warnings seriously.

Stark

To be fair, I think that was the estimate without any sort of restrictions. Even at that though, it did seem like a very much inflated figure. Any interview I've seen with him, he seems to be getting a bit over-excited at the drama prospect.

Chivito550

Stark wrote: »

To be fair, I think that was the estimate without any sort of restrictions. Even at that though, it did seem like a very much inflated figure. Any interview I've seen with him, he seems to be getting a bit over-excited at the drama prospect.

By that logic Sweden would have had 240,000 deaths (adjusting for population).

They have had 12,000. That's 5% of the above.

I hear Claire Byrne is appearing on Sam McKonkey Live next week.

average_runner

robinph wrote: »

With most of the UK at risk population due to be vaccinated within the next 2 months, I'm still waiting for mine yet, and the rest expected to only take another couple of months after that what is anticipated to go so wrong between now and then? International travel for marathons for regular people might still be off until wider vacation globally, but the elite event last October worked for London and no reason the elites can't do similar off the front of the main field this year.

Olympics not getting any international spectators will be a problem for Japan admittedly, but should be able to have the competition.

Well the latest coming from South Africa is as follows:

"The study, conducted by researchers from the University of Witwatersrand and Oxford University, found that a two-dose regimen of the vaccine – also known as ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 – provides only minimal protection against mild-to-moderate COVID-19 caused by the SA or B.1.351 variant."

average_runner

Chivito550 wrote: »

So a series of World Championships essentially.

That is not an Olympic Games.

I agree its different, but the current cost is gone OTT.

Chivito550

average_runner wrote: »

I agree its different, but the current cost is gone OTT.

Nobody is forcing a city to bid for the Olympics.

robinph

average_runner wrote: »

Well the latest coming from South Africa is as follows:

"The study, conducted by researchers from the University of Witwatersrand and Oxford University, found that a two-dose regimen of the vaccine – also known as ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 – provides only minimal protection against mild-to-moderate COVID-19 caused by the SA or B.1.351 variant."

They have switched position already on that.

Think that preliminary report came out on Sunday, the "study" was shown to be only done on minimal number of people with average age of 30, and was trying to figure out differences between dosing strategies. They have already changed their roll out of the vaccine and it's back on again, although I think mostly with medical staff but in higher numbers than the 2000 recruited for the university study.

Also have seen explanations that the mild symptoms doesn't have much to do with the effect on sever symptoms or hospitalisation as it's from a different immune response, and they are still confident of it stopping or greatly reducing the severe cases.

Doesn't matter too much at the moment if people get it mildly in the same numbers, for the moment all that matters is trying to reduce the severe cases and the vaccines are still expected to work for that. Reducing the number of mild cases and the transmissions is the secondary target.

Chivito550

robinph wrote: »

They have switched position already on that.

Think that preliminary report came out on Sunday, the "study" was shown to be only done on minimal number of people with average age of 30, and was trying to figure out differences between dosing strategies. They have already changed their roll out of the vaccine and it's back on again, although I think mostly with medical staff but in higher numbers than the 2000 recruited for the university study.

Also have seen explanations that the mild symptoms doesn't have much to do with the effect on sever symptoms or hospitalisation as it's from a different immune response, and they are still confident of it stopping or greatly reducing the severe cases.

Doesn't matter too much at the moment if people get it mildly in the same numbers, for the moment all that matters is trying to reduce the severe cases and the vaccines are still expected to work for that. Reducing the number of mild cases and the transmissions is the secondary target.

Yep. Selecting research on the part of some. People are addicted to bad news it seems. They seek it out. The hysteria is like a drug to many.

average_runner

Chivito550 wrote: »

Yep. Selecting research on the part of some. People are addicted to bad news it seems. They seek it out. The hysteria is like a drug to many.

Don't think its about bad news, its about getting all the info out there and different views on it.




Ireland seems to agree with the german view on the AZ vaccine, not giving it to the over 70's.


It will take a while to get out of this, but we need to avoid another xmas scenario.

average_runner

On a side note, might be worth converting to the track for the summer.
Leo's statement doesn't fill me with much hope of road races in 2021

Butterbeans

I won't be banking on any road racing going ahead for 2021. Realistically, not even the experts know how it's going to play out in relation to vaccines, variants and such like.
I'd rather focus on a few key distances over the year and see how I go in a few time trials (I'll never do a marathon distance time trial again though😵).
Not ideal, but at least I know what's coming and not a wait and see approach, and I'd like to think I'm being realistic rather than pessimistic.
If races come back sooner, that'll be bonus territory.

ultrapercy

all GAA activity prohibited until Easter at the earliest and not allowed under level 5 from now on. I far as I can see there is not much call for optimism.

Stark

Pretty depressing. Though I am glad to see they're no longer getting special treatment especially after match celebrations last year throwing counties that were doing okay into lockdown.

average_runner

Stark wrote: »

Pretty depressing. Though I am glad to see they're no longer getting special treatment especially after match celebrations last year throwing counties that were doing okay into lockdown.

Not allowing kids do out door sport is pretty shocking in fairness. They managed it up till dec and should be back now as cases nearly under a thousand.

No cases where reported at kids sports

bucketybuck

average_runner wrote: »

and the general public always feel the cost of it.

The general public could feel the benefit of it as well though. With so little to live for these days things like Super Bowls and Olympics give something to look forward to, something to take away from the never ending misery surrounding Covid.

I know I'd be delighted to have something to follow for a few weeks and take my mind of things.

average_runner

bucketybuck wrote: »

The general public could feel the benefit of it as well though. With so little to live for these days things like Super Bowls and Olympics give something to look forward to, something to take away from the never ending misery surrounding Covid.

I know I'd be delighted to have something to follow for a few weeks and take my mind of things.

Well i was talking about the money involved etc. I would still like to see the Olympics go ahead, but more so as a sport and not as a competition on who can do the biggest olympics.


Superbowl is very different, it happens in a stadium that is already in use and will be for years to come

Cartman78

Butterbeans wrote: »

I won't be banking on any road racing going ahead for 2021. Realistically, not even the experts know how it's going to play out in relation to vaccines, variants and such like.
I'd rather focus on a few key distances over the year and see how I go in a few time trials (I'll never do a marathon distance time trial again though😵).
Not ideal, but at least I know what's coming and not a wait and see approach, and I'd like to think I'm being realistic rather than pessimistic.
If races come back sooner, that'll be bonus territory.

Yep....fully agree unfortunately.

Following the announcements of the vaccines etc. late last year I had been hopeful of maybe a few smaller events going ahead in late summer or autumn but those hopes are fading fast.

I'm actually in the best shape I've been in years fitness wise and won't be far off a 5K PB in the coming weeks. Very frustrating that there's unlikely to be any races this year but a first world problem in these extraordinarily sh1tty times we're living in.

Hurrache

average_runner wrote: »

Not allowing kids do out door sport is pretty shocking in fairness. They managed it up till dec and should be back now as cases nearly under a thousand.

No cases where reported at kids sports

I'm sure a few clubs closed earlier, some back as far as October, due to local outbreaks. I know a couple anyway in which all organised training was stopped due to it.

Problem is that kids aren't going to get to training themselves, particularly outside of cities and towns, the issue is when families mix.

average_runner

Hurrache wrote: »

I'm sure a few clubs closed earlier, some back as far as October, due to local outbreaks. I know a couple anyway in which all organised training was stopped due to it.

Problem is that kids aren't going to get to training themselves, particularly outside of cities and towns, the issue is when families mix.

Some Parents are just stupid, we had a drop off point and then they had to leave so no mixing could occur.


In fairness when they drop the kids up or collected them, they had to have masks on also. Most agreed with this.

Hurrache

I agree, it's stupid parents.
I'm involved with juveniles with our club and despite people being quite good about things initially, they return to normal soon enough.

What's worse though is that while your club might be pretty good, when you visit or they visit you, they're awful, no policies being implemented. Now I know games stopped a long time ago but it's a demonstration of how they behave.

Lambay island

Cartman78 wrote: »

Yep....fully agree unfortunately.

Following the announcements of the vaccines etc. late last year I had been hopeful of maybe a few smaller events going ahead in late summer or autumn but those hopes are fading fast.

I'm actually in the best shape I've been in years fitness wise and won't be far off a 5K PB in the coming weeks. Very frustrating that there's unlikely to be any races this year but a first world problem in these extraordinarily sh1tty times we're living in.

In the grand scheme of things yes it is a 1st world problem. The thing is though, for you, me and countless others its not. Racing or parkruns etc equates to living a normal life. The socialising, the craic, the endorphins, the pleasure of passing someone, the disdain at the legs giving up, the feeling of living as opposed to simply existing. Its natural to mourn that as everything is relative.

event

When races do some back the scramble for entries will be worse than the Garth Brooks debacle from a few years ago :pac:

Stark

event wrote: »

When races do some back the scramble for entries will be worse than the Garth Brooks debacle from a few years ago :pac:

5 Dublin marathons over 5 consecutive days. I can live with that.

Cartman78

Lambay island wrote: »

In the grand scheme of things yes it is a 1st world problem. The thing is though, for you, me and countless others its not. Racing or parkruns etc equates to living a normal life. The socialising, the craic, the endorphins, the pleasure of passing someone, the disdain at the legs giving up, the feeling of living as opposed to simply existing. Its natural to mourn that as everything is relative.

Well said....I know for sure I'll never take the opportunity to race for granted again.

- That feeling after about 4K of a 10K that you know deep down that you've gone out waaaaaaay too fast but are too stubborn to slow down until the inevitable detonation arrives.

- The scalding hot tea in a sweaty overcrowded clubhouse/hall after a race. Some say the tea can be hotter than the core of the sun for up to 15 mins

- Bumping into people you half know at a race and chatting for half an hour and you won't meet them again until the following year at the same race.

- Driving to a race you haven't done before and not having a clue where it starts from....and the relief when you see a few lads doing warm up along a boreen.

- The rare and beautiful unexpected PB ....after a bad week at work, getting lost on the way to the race, feeling queasy, no time for a proper warm up etc and then the stars align for no reason and you smash a PB.

Yeah...fuppit I miss all that. All the virtual runs and solo TTs in the world don't come close.

Anyway sorry for crapping on, hopefully we'll have some events to talk about sometime soon.