Corona Virus and events

Chivito550

So much of all this makes no sense. I was in the office one day recently. I'm usually at home but I'm classed as an essential worker so I can go in if needs be. Given I was in town, I thought I may aswell take advantage of being in and order a few records from Tower Records through click and collect and walk down and collect them on my lunch break.

I called up Tower Records to make my order and they told me they aren't allowed to do click and collect, and that I'd have to order online and pay the hefty delivery charges. As a result, I didn't bother, and gave my business to The Record Hub as they have much better delivery terms.

None of this is their fault. They are are simply following the rules. But it's all a nonsense. The book shop across the road from them on Dawson Street are allowed to do click and collect.

Books are essential. Music is not. Who decides these things?

Most books in the book shop are absolutely not essential, so why not cordon off the non essential books so, given that non-essential items in Tesco are blacked out.

Another example of lunacy is not being able to access an outdoor track to engage in solo training. The booking system was in place for much of last year and it works very well. Most of the sessions I did at Santry there were maybe 2 or 3 others there max. You've more chance of getting struck by lightning than catching Covid in such a setting.

However, it is deemed perfectly safe for me to go to my local park and do speed sessions sprinting back and forth on the path, with many dogs, kids, prams, walkers, joggers, cyclists and runners sharing the same space. I can't do my session on grass because it's too uneven and still very mucky and slippy. There's always a risk somebody will run out in front of me.

RIP common sense.

Chivito550

Hurrache wrote: »

An hour talking so someone standing beside you is a risk all the same. it's spread through droplets and just because you're outside doesn't mean they immediately dissipate, particularly if you're downwind and beside someone with it.

Driving to the shops is a risk too, but we don't ban cars to prevent any chance of road deaths.

May as well ban shoes while we are at it. Shoes only encourage people to get out and about and leave their 5km.

ultrapercy

Chivito550 wrote: »

Driving to the shops is a risk too, but we don't ban cars to prevent any chance of road deaths.

May as well ban shoes while we are at it. Shoes only encourage people to get out and about and leave their 5km.

no we don't ban cars but we have very strict laws and regulations around their use. These laws apply to everyone is society equally despite the fact that only a minority are inclined to drive in a dangerous manner.
Dealing with a virus with an exponential growth rate requires restrictions based on statistical models of multi millions not on individual activity.

Hurrache

Chivito550 wrote: »

Driving to the shops is a risk too, but we don't ban cars to prevent any chance of road deaths.

May as well ban shoes while we are at it. Shoes only encourage people to get out and about and leave their 5km.

You're well into jumping the shark territory....

Chivito550

ultrapercy wrote: »

no we don't ban cars but we have very strict laws and regulations around their use. These laws apply to everyone is society equally despite the fact that only a minority are inclined to drive in a dangerous manner.
Dealing with a virus with an exponential growth rate requires restrictions based on statistical models of multi millions not on individual activity.

They keep saying they need to balance the risk of Covid with people's rights to civil liberties. Yet we are seeing no action on this.

Certain things make sense, like banning mass gatherings, crowded pubs etc. They pose a large risk of viral spread.

Other things, like running on a track, playing a game of tennis, meeting up with a few people outdoors, pose very little risk. Note I didn't say NO risk. But the level of risk is so low that the damage done to society by removing these civil liberties is far greater than the damage caused by the virus from these scenarios.

There is simply no common sense.

A lot of people are no longer following these restrictions anymore anyway, other than the ones they have no choice but to follow (like not going to pubs, concerts etc), so the powers that be are living in pure dream world and are flogging a dead horse. I know of many who are hopping the fences at tracks, clubs who are letting non-elite athletes onto tracks on the sly etc.

There's smarter ways of balancing the management of the virus with protecting the livelihoods and mental health of the population.

average_runner

Chivito550 wrote: »

They keep saying they need to balance the risk of Covid with people's rights to civil liberties. Yet we are seeing no action on this.

Certain things make sense, like banning mass gatherings, crowded pubs etc. They pose a large risk of viral spread.

Other things, like running on a track, playing a game of tennis, meeting up with a few people outdoors, pose very little risk. Note I didn't say NO risk. But the level of risk is so low that the damage done to society by removing these civil liberties is far greater than the damage caused by the virus from these scenarios.

There is simply no common sense.

A lot of people are no longer following these restrictions anymore anyway, other than the ones they have no choice but to follow (like not going to pubs, concerts etc), so the powers that be are living in pure dream world and are flogging a dead horse. I know of many who are hopping the fences at tracks, clubs who are letting non-elite athletes onto tracks on the sly etc.

There's smarter ways of balancing the management of the virus with protecting the livelihoods and mental health of the population.

From my side, i am following the rules for inside meet ups etc. Regarding meeting parents etc, I meet our inlaws daily and now outside the house as kids are in school.
Before the schools opened our kids were with them everyday, as the kids weren't out on the street, so we were in the same social bubble.


Now they are back at school, they can't meet inside but do outside every morning and afternoon.


Kids are out on the street now playing every day also, they got to get out and burn off the energy and have social interaction.


For me, i basically work from home, go for run, walk the dog and maybe to the shop an odd time. Collect kids from school.


We can live with this disease

Chivito550

average_runner wrote: »

For me, i basically work from home, go for run, walk the dog and maybe to the shop an odd time. Collect kids from school.


We can live with this disease

Is that truly living though?

Chivito550

Italian Indoor masters is on right now.

https://youtu.be/OGThjBTuqM8

Polish Masters were on last weekend.

Yet here we can't even run solo on an outdoor track.

thelordgod

Chivito550 wrote: »

Italian Indoor masters is on right now.

https://youtu.be/OGThjBTuqM8

Polish Masters were on last weekend.

Yet here we can't even run solo on an outdoor track.

Look at Poland and Italy on this map: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/situation-updates/weekly-maps-coordinated-restriction-free-movement

Chivito550

thelordgod wrote: »

Look at Poland and Italy on this map: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/situation-updates/weekly-maps-coordinated-restriction-free-movement

Ah yes, the stay in lockdown to avoid lockdown approach!

These countries are clearly trying to balance the management of the virus with people's right to civil liberties. They are showing more respect for their people.

I'm sure there have been other National Masters events that have taken place around Europe. I just don't particularly follow the masters scene so these are the only ones I'm aware of.

thelordgod

Believe me I would prefer to be running a proper race not stuck traipsing up and down the road. But I sure as hell don't want anyone wheezing their covid crap over me either. Just because other countries are doing it doesn't mean its safe. Italy is back in another mess right now because of this behaviour. And what about the civil liberties of those who don't want to catch covid? Too many pissheads around the place who have no respect for themselves or society.

Chivito550

thelordgod wrote: »

Believe me I would prefer to be running a proper race not stuck traipsing up and down the road. But I sure as hell don't want anyone wheezing their covid crap over me either. Just because other countries are doing it doesn't mean its safe. Italy is back in another mess right now because of this behaviour. And what about the civil liberties of those who don't want to catch covid? Too many pissheads around the place who have no respect for themselves or society.

I'm not going to get dragged into a general Covid debate. I've been avoiding the Covid forum by and large for that very reason.

But I'll say one thing. Each person has the choice and responsibility to make their own personal risk assessment and decisions for themselves. If somebody is too afraid to run a race, then don't race. If somebody is still so paranoid of picking up Covid that they still need to wash the groceries then fire away. We all have free will to make our own decisions. Just because a race is allowed doesn't mean you or anyone else has to run it. If worried, then take responsibility for your own actions.

average_runner

Chivito550 wrote: »

Is that truly living though?

Well i used to get the bus to work, walk the dog, go for a run and odd shop.
There is small things missing there but i don't missed them whatever they were



Obviously when the kids sports come back we be back at it with them.




Summer is very different

thelordgod

What you say is partially true. Even if I don't partake in a race the infection rate will go up if infected people take part. I'm not paranoid but trying to be careful - I'm not one of those wearing a mask while driving alone. While the infection rate is still relatively high I don't believe it is prudent to open things up as normal because it will come back to bite us. We are better off suffering it for another few months because otherwise it will never go away.

Chivito550

thelordgod wrote: »

What you say is partially true. Even if I don't partake in a race the infection rate will go up if infected people take part. I'm not paranoid but trying to be careful - I'm not one of those wearing a mask while driving alone. While the infection rate is still relatively high I don't believe it is prudent to open things up as normal because it will come back to bite us. We are better off suffering it for another few months because otherwise it will never go away.

Yes, but it will always be "just another few months". If there was a clear road map out of this with positive messaging then more would stick with it.

The messaging has been pathetic of late. Leaks left right and centre, doom and gloom. The negativity is the worst it has ever been, far worse than last year.

Then you've the likes of Sam McDonkey saying another 5 years of this....

robinph

Has there been any cases of transmission shown to be the factor in outside sporting situations?

Whilst there are cases of transmission happening in elite sports, that is all around what they are doing indoors in the rest of their activities. Not seen anything from any country to suggest that people are catching covid from the activity of participating in outdoor sport, always the related activities where people are not following the rules. There has certainly been elite sports
people playing with covid, yet the only cases that are discovered are within the teams themselves and then between the players and the support staff. All the jumping on top of each other on the pitch, fighting with the referee, tackling each other and pushing people around the penalty area or piling into a scrum are not causing transmission.

thelordgod

Its not possible to have a clear road map without a crystal ball. And yes everyone is sick to the teeth of it. Hopefully the vaccine program will work - it is showing good results among medical staff and OAPs in nursing homes. Anyway thats probably enough covid in this thread.

Ceepo

Chivito550 wrote: »

I'm not going to get dragged into a general Covid debate. I've been avoiding the Covid forum by and large for that very reason.

But I'll say one thing. Each person has the choice and responsibility to make their own personal risk assessment and decisions for themselves. If somebody is too afraid to run a race, then don't race. If somebody is still so paranoid of picking up Covid that they still need to wash the groceries then fire away. We all have free will to make our own decisions. Just because a race is allowed doesn't mean you or anyone else has to run it. If worried, then take responsibility for your own actions.

Surely you're not advocating for a common sense approach.?
Sure how would that make sense...

sarcasm

Unthought Known

thelordgod wrote: »

What you say is partially true. Even if I don't partake in a race the infection rate will go up if infected people take part. I'm not paranoid but trying to be careful - I'm not one of those wearing a mask while driving alone. While the infection rate is still relatively high I don't believe it is prudent to open things up as normal because it will come back to bite us. We are better off suffering it for another few months because otherwise it will never go away.

It will never go away. People need to get away from the idea that we must have a zero infection rate before opening up. If the vulnerable are vaccinated there is no reason for anything to be restricted, especially outdoors.

thelordgod

robinph wrote: »

Has there been any cases of transmission shown to be the factor in outside sporting situations?

Its probably difficult to tell seeing as we haven't had any.

Just after getting an email from the Lisbon Half Marathon organisers. Can kicked down the road again.

Hurrache

Chivito550 wrote: »

I'm not going to get dragged into a general Covid debate. I've been avoiding the Covid forum by and large for that very reason.

But I'll say one thing. Each person has the choice and responsibility to make their own personal risk assessment and decisions for themselves. If somebody is too afraid to run a race, then don't race. If somebody is still so paranoid of picking up Covid that they still need to wash the groceries then fire away. We all have free will to make our own decisions. Just because a race is allowed doesn't mean you or anyone else has to run it. If worried, then take responsibility for your own actions.

Free will takes no precedence over the society when it comes to a pandemic. In fact pandemic or not, the good of society is not trumped by freewill. That's verging on freeman nonsense.

robinph

thelordgod wrote: »

Its probably difficult to tell seeing as we haven't had any.

Just after getting an email from the Lisbon Half Marathon organisers. Can kicked down the road again.

Plenty of events happening around the world.

Whilst Australia and New Zealand are essentially zero covid in the wild, the likes of Japan and Russia are holding parkrun events weekly and no reports of parkrun being accused as the reason for cases happening. There has been mass participation running events held in some countries. Including a half marathon that kind of happened by accident in Cornwall back in November/ December where they were meant to all start off at time intervals, but nobody got the memo about it so started as a mass... nothing came of that.
People hanging out on beaches, or protesting in the streets in the UK during last year are very similar movements of people to a massed running event. Those incidents have actually been looked into for evidence of transmission having happened and they found nothing to show any spike in cases linked to those events.
Crowds of football supporters hanging around outside stadiums every so often, police maybe throw out a few fines, but nothing to show anything regarding rises in cases from those events.

thelordgod

So our GAA lads must be special cases to have had so much of it. Anyway they had their chance to show they could follow the guidelines and they didn't. In general zero information is given out locations of outbreaks. I remember one meat factory that was shut - everyone thought it was the factory floor staff when in fact it was the office staff.

average_runner

Hurrache wrote: »

Free will takes no precedence over the society when it comes to a pandemic. In fact pandemic or not, the good of society is not trumped by freewill. That's verging on freeman nonsense.

The good of society extends beyond covid also. Mental issues, cancer checks called off etc!!!


We will only find out the full cost of this in years to come.


One thing for sure, the government didn't try to protect the people of Ireland, they protected themselves with an approach that lacked vision

average_runner

thelordgod wrote: »

So our GAA lads must be special cases to have had so much of it. Anyway they had their chance to show they could follow the guidelines and they didn't. In general zero information is given out locations of outbreaks. I remember one meat factory that was shut - everyone thought it was the factory floor staff when in fact it was the office staff.

We are asking for kids sports to come back, what did the kids do that was wrong? We had really organise sessions, pods, coaches wearing masks, everything clean down etc.


What harm can one person doing laps on a track do, while we can have 50 people running and walking in the park together right now?

thelordgod

average_runner wrote: »

We are asking for kids sports to come back, what did the kids do that was wrong? We had really organise sessions, pods, coaches wearing masks, everything clean down etc.


What harm can one person doing laps on a track do, while we can have 50 people running and walking in the park together right now?

Yes a lot of it is madness. The kids didn't do anything wrong but neither did I (or most likely you either). And running is as important to me as so-called elite sports. Just hoping the vaccines will nip it in the bud and get us back to some sort of normal.

ThebitterLemon

thelordgod wrote: »

Yes a lot of it is madness. The kids didn't do anything wrong but neither did I (or most likely you either). And running is as important to me as so-called elite sports. Just hoping the vaccines will nip it in the bud and get us back to some sort of normal.

And if the vaccines (for some unfortunate reason) don’t work, what’s your proposal then?

TbL

thelordgod

ThebitterLemon wrote: »

And if the vaccines (for some unfortunate reason) don’t work, what’s your proposal then?

TbL

My proposal? I don't run the country. Maybe ask your TD.

I'm just hoping they work.

ThebitterLemon

thelordgod wrote: »

My proposal? I don't run the country. Maybe ask your TD.

I'm just hoping they work.

Would you be prepared to stay in lockdown for another year, two?

TbL

thelordgod

I can't afford to do that. I'm self-employed and barely existing - no help from the state was forthcoming. Another few months should sort it if the vaccine is rolled out and effective. But its up to society how long we stay in lockdown - if we as a whole keep flouting the guidelines and not self isolating when required then it won't go away.

So I got very annoyed when I saw a guy I know on a video of the travellers wedding in galway - he was the limo driver - no masks or social distancing in the middle of a high risk group. And a high risk he brings the infection back home with him.

Anyway thats not sports related - just the state of society at the moment. But it will affect how sports and other activities will continue to be restricted for the rest of us.

ultrapercy

Ceepo wrote: »

Surely you're not advocating for a common sense approach.?
Sure how would that make sense...

sarcasm

thats the type of common sense that almost collapsed our health service in Dec/Jan

Hurrache

average_runner wrote: »

The good of society extends beyond covid also. Mental issues, cancer checks called off etc!!!


We will only find out the full cost of this in years to come.


One thing for sure, the government didn't try to protect the people of Ireland, they protected themselves with an approach that lacked vision

Free will has nothing to do with it.

Chivito550

thelordgod wrote: »

I can't afford to do that. I'm self-employed and barely existing - no help from the state was forthcoming. Another few months should sort it if the vaccine is rolled out and effective. But its up to society how long we stay in lockdown - if we as a whole keep flouting the guidelines and not self isolating when required then it won't go away.

So I got very annoyed when I saw a guy I know on a video of the travellers wedding in galway - he was the limo driver - no masks or social distancing in the middle of a high risk group. And a high risk he brings the infection back home with him.

Anyway thats not sports related - just the state of society at the moment. But it will affect how sports and other activities will continue to be restricted for the rest of us.

How do you feel about possibly closing your business next winter because of flu and other respiratory diseases? Because that is what NPHET have already mentioned as a possibility.

thelordgod

I am closed. Nothing left to feel about it. Just doing a little bit of work from home.

Chivito550

thelordgod wrote: »

I am closed. Nothing left to feel about it. Just doing a little bit of work from home.

Sorry to hear that.

Stark

ultrapercy wrote: »

thats the type of common sense that almost collapsed our health service in Dec/Jan

There was nothing "common sense" about the events that led to that.

Evidence has been clear for quite some time now that it's prolonged indoor contact that spreads the virus. Which is exactly what happened in December and was encouraged by the powers that be. As a society, we can't seem to get over our curtain twitching instincts when we see people having fun outside and instead focus on the indoor transmission risks.

Hurrache

Chivito550 wrote: »

How do you feel about possibly closing your business next winter because of flu and other respiratory diseases? Because that is what NPHET have already mentioned as a possibility.

They have?

average_runner

Chivito550 wrote: »

How do you feel about possibly closing your business next winter because of flu and other respiratory diseases? Because that is what NPHET have already mentioned as a possibility.

That won't happen. The government knows that won't happen as people will go mad. Now some people might still wear a mask etc.

token56

I don't expect anyone in the government or the HSE to look into a crystal ball and be able to predict the future, however I do expect them to make informed and common sense decisions. It is a given than any increased level of interaction even outdoors does raise risk of transmission but the first question is what is that risk, i.e. by how much, and second, what is the risk appetite. At this stage if we were doing our job correctly we should be able to give a fairly accurate estimate at the first question and this is one of the biggest problems for me. Either we don't have the right data, we have it and these types of calculations are not being done, or worse they are being done and just not communicated.

The only data I can find which might give an indication is below which gives a breakdown of cluster outbreak location. Unfortunately "Sporting activity/fitness" is only split out on its own since 26/09 last year and it was not long after this until we were back in lockdown. I'm also not sure does this include indoor facilities like gyms/classes.
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-19outbreaksclustersinireland/

Looking at a 6 week period from when this data is available (very few related to sport after due to lockdown I presume) there were a total of 3288 clusters identified, 18 related to "Sporting activity/fitness", 0.55%. It is a small sample size but the best I can find. Obviously not all clusters are equal so average cluster size, # of asymptomatic case, # of deaths, etc would all be worth knowing. Now I think I'm representing this data pretty fairly, there could well be more that is not public however someone should be able to estimate this type of risk.

Regardless if we said that by opening sporting activities back to where it was in August/September, which I believe was training in groups of 15, some limited races, obviously other sports too, it would mean a 0.5-1% increase in cases or clusters. Is that acceptable? This is the risk appetite question and everybody has a different level. The governments is quite clearly at an all time low after Dec/Jan.

My personal selfish opinion is that in this case the reward is worth the risk but not everyone is going to think the same.

Hurrache

It will never happen, and I doubt very much NPHET ever made the suggestion that it should happen.

average_runner

ultrapercy wrote: »

thats the type of common sense that almost collapsed our health service in Dec/Jan

What happened at Xmas was a minority and a disgrace. But if we are going to let the minority rule our lives, well then running will be banned, as an minority believes its bad for you.

Chivito550

Hurrache wrote: »

They have?

Yes.

Chivito550

Hurrache wrote: »

It will never happen, and I doubt very much NPHET ever made the suggestion that it should happen.

They did. I'll have to dig it out. But they did. Leo too.

Chivito550

Hurrache wrote: »

It will never happen, and I doubt very much NPHET ever made the suggestion that it should happen.

Autumn/Winter 2021/2022: The expectation is that a significant majority of the population will be
vaccinated by next Autumn/Winter. Nevertheless, there are real risks that we may face the same
challenges in controlling COVID-19 and protecting our health service as we did during this winter for a
number of reasons: (1) the currently unknown impact of vaccines on transmission and the impact that
variants may have remains uncertain, (2) opportunities for transmission increase during winter months
when people are closer together indoors in poorly ventilated spaces, (3) if the same level of social
distancing measures are not in place, other respiratory infections will be in greater circulation, potentially
placing a double pressure on the health service, and (4) growing levels of fatigue with public health
measures and consequent lower levels of adherence.

https://www.gov.ie/en/campaigns/resilience-recovery-2020-2021-plan-for-living-with-covid-19/

Mr Varadkar said problems next winter could not be ruled out as “not only could Covid come back next winter, we could also have the return of other respiratory illnesses.

The Tánaiste confirmed there was not one case of flu confirmed in Ireland this winter.

“That has never happened in my lifetime or recollection, but the flu hasn’t gone away. One of the concerns is that these respiratory illnesses return with a vengeance next winter and we have less immunity”.

https://www.independent.ie/news/tanaiste-positive-on-5km-limit-being-lifted-on-april-5-40181216.html

bucketybuck

thelordgod wrote: »

And yes everyone is sick to the teeth of it.

Being sick to the teeth of it isn't the issue. I am a big boy now, I can handle being sick of something.

Speaking personally, the issue is that I no longer have any trust in it. I don't trust that the right decisions are being made or that the government are doing all they can. I don't trust that things need to be this way.

Hurrache

Chivito550 wrote: »

https://www.gov.ie/en/campaigns/resilience-recovery-2020-2021-plan-for-living-with-covid-19/



https://www.independent.ie/news/tanaiste-positive-on-5km-limit-being-lifted-on-april-5-40181216.html

Well your take, and presumably the guys that thanked it, on that is unique anyway.

It's not implying that there'll be a lockdown for the flu and other respiratory illnesses.

Chivito550

Hurrache wrote: »

Well your take, and presumably the guys that thanked it, on that is unique anyway.

It's not implying that there'll be a lockdown for the flu and other respiratory illnesses.

You can draw whatever conclusions you wish. The fact remains that they are worried about the health service next winter. Only a fool would think lockdowns are off the table when they are voicing such concerns. It doesn't really matter what causes the health system to be overwhelmed, whether its Covid or other viruses, their remit is to protect the health service. They will do whatever it takes to protect our shambolic health service.

Hurrache

Of course they're worried about the health service, that's no secret to anyone, they're perpetually worried about it.

But they're not going to lockdown the country on an annual or biannual basis to match the flu seasons, nor are they suggesting they will.

Now if anybody is not living their lives at the moment, or living in fear, it's those living in expectation that the worse is going to happen, this being an example of it.

average_runner

Chivito550 wrote: »

https://www.gov.ie/en/campaigns/resilience-recovery-2020-2021-plan-for-living-with-covid-19/



https://www.independent.ie/news/tanaiste-positive-on-5km-limit-being-lifted-on-april-5-40181216.html

Leo won't be in the government come winter. And there is not a hope of things getting shutdown due to flu. They might give out advisory on what to do, but the EU will jump on them like anything.

Chivito550

Hurrache wrote: »

Of course they're worried about the health service, that's no secret to anyone, they're perpetually worried about it.

But they're not going to lockdown the country on an annual or biannual basis to match the flu seasons, nor are they suggesting they will.

Now if anybody is not living their lives at the moment, or living in fear, it's those living in expectation that the worse is going to happen, this being an example of it.

Well I'm invested in next winter as my wedding is supposed to be then. So forgive me for taking the doom and gloom from the powers that be to heart.

I feel winter is very risky to be planning anything given the current messaging, so pure fear is probably going to push us to pushing it back.