Will you travel? [Mod Note in Post #1 - Travel Discussion Only! Megathread]

lainey_d_123

theological wrote: »

Feel free to read the article. Travel is a major cause.

I have read it, and I've also had extended chats with a mate's brother who is an epidemiologist, and you seem to have totally misunderstood how this works.

theological

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

I have read it, and I've also had extended chats with a mate's brother who is an epidemiologist, and you seem to have totally misunderstood how this works.

Argumentum ad verecundiam.

I'm interested in the data to have a reasoned discussion not in who knows who. It is obvious that the virus came to Europe through travel, and spread around Europe through travel over the summer.

lainey_d_123

theological wrote: »

Argumentum ad verecundiam.

I'm interested in the data to have a reasoned discussion not in who knows who. It is obvious that the virus came to Europe through travel, and spread around Europe through travel over the summer.

Yes, it did come to Europe through travel, and the initial spread here was due to travel from Spain, France and Italy, mostly.

What you don't seem to grasp is that banning travel NOW is like shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted. The virus is already established here now. If there had been zero travel over the summer, there would still have been plenty of spread through bars and restaurants being open, and then students going back.

There's coronavirus here, there's coronavirus in Spain, in Italy...at this point, you might as well think of it as the common cold. Which strain out of many strains someone might have is not overly relevant. The virus spreads when people move, and it doesn't care whether they've gone to Tenerife or the pub down the road, unless a country has actually eradicated the virus, like they did in Taiwan.

caveat emptor

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Yes, it did come to Europe through travel, and the initial spread here was due to travel from Spain, France and Italy, mostly.

What you don't seem to grasp is that banning travel NOW is like shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted. The virus is already established here now. If there had been zero travel over the summer, there would still have been plenty of spread through bars and restaurants being open, and then students going back.

There's coronavirus here, there's coronavirus in Spain, in Italy...at this point, you might as well think of it as the common cold. Which strain out of many strains someone might have is not overly relevant. The virus spreads when people move, and it doesn't care whether they've gone to Tenerife or the pub down the road, unless a country has actually eradicated the virus, like they did in Taiwan.

Did we not say that last time and use it for justification of keeping travel without quarantine going.

How many times are we going to use this for justification of doing nothing. People aren't stupid. Those who find themselves unemployed or who are suffering financially can directly attribute their situation to the mass migration that occurs every summer and winter.

Business and individuals are having to take the fall for the travel industry.

IMHO in a pandemic you shouldn't be travelling unnecessarily. Trips to the continent fell off a cliff in the 1940s despite the vocal remonstrations of the continental travel industry.

bikeman1

Blaming travel is a simple cop out and is a nice sound bite or comment on here. But travel in itself is not the problem, it is the actions on either end that cause it to spread.

Some folks in this country just don’t get how international our society here is. Maybe, their family is all from the same county and same locality, but that is not the fact for a huge number of us in Europe.

I have family in France, the UK, Spain and the US. My good friend is Polish. Another is married to a Mexican and I live with a Brazilian. I work with Chinese and Portuguese as well as Irish from all over the country. I could go on and on. This is one snapshot of the European society.

Can we stay cut off forever - no. We need to get real about the world we live in. Allow travel so we can be with the people we love. We’ll never get this time back. Life is not for putting on pause because of a virus that we know how to deal with now.

Travel is essential.

theological

I live in the UK. I understand that we can't be cut off forever but we need to focus on sending the virus packing first. Then we can continue whatever international travel we like.

caveat emptor

Nice straw man argument. Why can’t we have a live ally binding quarantine with enforcement like germany?

I know it’s an inconvenience for people but so is a lockdown and hundreds of thousands of people unemployed. We can’t visit family in the next county but you should be allowed to visit family in Brussels? It makes not sense and it’s the second time this nonsense argument is being made.

It’s a no brainer I guess that’s why germany did it without repeating we can’t, we can’t, we can’t.

If you break it there Up to 25K fine or 5 years in prison.

Father Hernandez

theological wrote: »

I live in the UK. I understand that we can't be cut off forever but we need to focus on sending the virus packing first. Then we can continue whatever international travel we like.

Whilst I agree, if we had a time frame for when we'll send the virus packing, we'd all buy in.

Fact is, nobody knows when this pandemic will be over, 6 months, 6 years no one has a clue.

We'll be traveling halfway across the world in January to see family, not so much elderly but family we haven't seen in 12 months and life is getting shorter. Family time that won't be the same across a zoom call or via WhatsApp. Essential IMO.

theological

theological wrote: »

I live in the UK. I understand that we can't be cut off forever but we need to focus on sending the virus packing first. Then we can continue whatever international travel we like.

We can, the EU is building the biggliest wall ever to stop you

lainey_d_123

caveat emptor wrote: »

Did we not say that last time and use it for justification of keeping travel without quarantine going.

How many times are we going to use this for justification of doing nothing. People aren't stupid. Those who find themselves unemployed or who are suffering financially can directly attribute their situation to the mass migration that occurs every summer and winter.

Business and individuals are having to take the fall for the travel industry.

IMHO in a pandemic you shouldn't be travelling unnecessarily. Trips to the continent fell off a cliff in the 1940s despite the vocal remonstrations of the continental travel industry.

I never said that last time. It's very clear and obvious that if there's a virus spreading in another country, you stop or restrict travel from that country, before it gets in. The government missed that opportunity. They had an extra few weeks on Spain and Italy, they saw what was happening there, and they still chose to just do nothing. British exceptionalism at its finest.

Now that the virus is here, the point in restricting travel from countries who are in the same boat is limited. I do agree with you that people shouldn't be travelling 'unnecessarily' but that logic then applies to everything. You can't say person A can't travel to France to see friends and family, while person B can still go out on the p1ss every weekend in a UK city, to as many different bars and pubs as they want.

The virus doesn't spread because of 'travel', it spreads because of people's behaviour. If someone goes to Kos and spends the time getting drunk in crowded bars with no ventilation then they have a good chance of getting covid, but who's to say they wouldn't have got it from doing the same in Manchester? If I fly to Mallorca wearing a mask the entire time, rent an Airbnb and spend my time outside, walking around the streets, the beach, or sitting on the balcony with a beer, how is that a real risk?

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Trips to the continent fell off a cliff in the 1940s despite the vocal remonstrations of the continental travel industry.

What the actual ****?

caveat emptor

Sorry I'm talking about Ireland so not sure what British exceptionalism has to do with it?
We did nothing to test or ask people to quarantine returning from skiing holidays in Italy before the first wave. (a large proportion who would have flown via Milan Bergamo)
Equally when cases were on the rise in Spain we asked people to pinky promise and isolate for two weeks, of course a sizeable majority did not which has seeded wave 2. (60% of cases here originated there)

What will we do for wave three? More of the same? Doing the same thing and expecting different results is the very definition of insanity.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Sorry I'm talking about Ireland so not sure what British exceptionalism has to do with it?
We did nothing to test or ask people to quarantine returning from skiing holidays in Italy before the first wave. (a large proportion who would have flown via Milan Bergamo)
Equally when cases were on the rise in Spain we asked people to pinky promise and isolate for two weeks, of course a sizeable majority did not which has seeded wave 2. (60% of cases here originated there)

What will we do for wave three? More of the same? Doing the same thing and expecting different results is the very definition of insanity.

indeed, so stop bringing in lockdowns

caveat emptor

Niner leprauchan wrote: »

What the actual ****?

It wasn't all bad news. Some people eventually did make it over :pac:

lainey_d_123

Father Hernandez wrote: »

Whilst I agree, if we had a time frame for when we'll send the virus packing, we'd all buy in.

Fact is, nobody knows when this pandemic will be over, 6 months, 6 years no one has a clue.

We'll be traveling halfway across the world in January to see family, not so much elderly but family we haven't seen in 12 months and life is getting shorter. Family time that won't be the same across a zoom call or via WhatsApp. Essential IMO.

This is the thing. Most people can tolerate not being able to do something if there's a clear timeframe for it ending. Even if it's longer than they might like.

The not knowing is so damaging to mental health. People are more willing to take risks if they think this could go on another two years or more, especially with elderly relatives who might be dead by the time this is over.

I'm a total pessimist and back in March I thought the absolute worst case scenario would be an entire year of this....restrictions and no travel until March 2021 - this is now looking like the BEST case scenario. I'm supposed to be going to a large event on the continent in April 2021 and I honestly can't imagine a world where things are back to normal enough six months from now, that I'll be able to travel there as normal and attend an international event like that. It's soul crushing.

lainey_d_123

caveat emptor wrote: »

Sorry I'm talking about Ireland so not sure what British exceptionalism has to do with it?
We did nothing to test or ask people to quarantine returning from skiing holidays in Italy before the first wave. (a large proportion who would have flown via Milan Bergamo)
Equally when cases were on the rise in Spain we asked people to pinky promise and isolate for two weeks, of course a sizeable majority did not which has seeded wave 2. (60% of cases here originated there)

What will we do for wave three? More of the same? Doing the same thing and expecting different results is the very definition of insanity.

Yes, and that was a huge mistake. That was the time for quarantine, before the virus was established in Ireland. Once it's in, it's an uphill struggle from there, and quarantine is of limited benefit when the virus you're trying to keep out is already spreading within the country.

There are other things that can be done now. We have tests, and we'll soon have rapid tests. Would it not make more sense to require a negative test to fly anywhere, along with mask wearing and distancing (where possible), rather than travel bans and quarantines?

bikeman1

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

This is the thing. Most people can tolerate not being able to do something if there's a clear timeframe for it ending. Even if it's longer than they might like.

The not knowing is so damaging to mental health. People are more willing to take risks if they think this could go on another two years or more, especially with elderly relatives who might be dead by the time this is over.

I'm a total pessimist and back in March I thought the absolute worst case scenario would be an entire year of this....restrictions and no travel until March 2021 - this is now looking like the BEST case scenario. I'm supposed to be going to a large event on the continent in April 2021 and I honestly can't imagine a world where things are back to normal enough six months from now, that I'll be able to travel there as normal and attend an international event like that. It's soul crushing.

I was in Bergamo in September on holidays, 6 months after the disaster. Everything open and life was back to normal. This virus and its spread can go down as much as up. It’s impossible to say how things will go over the next 6 months.

caveat emptor

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Yes, and that was a huge mistake. That was the time for quarantine, before the virus was established in Ireland. Once it's in, it's an uphill struggle from there, and quarantine is of limited benefit when the virus you're trying to keep out is already spreading within the country.

There are other things that can be done now. We have tests, and we'll soon have rapid tests. Would it not make more sense to require a negative test to fly anywhere, along with mask wearing and distancing (where possible), rather than travel bans and quarantines?

The problem with trying to fudge quarantine is you'll miss 10% of cases roughly even with testing before. Some people will get it on the plane or in the airport.

Quarantine is as old as the hills as is Cordon sanitaire. There are really no exceptions with a novel virus with no effective treatment and no vaccine.

There's only so many waves people will take, why should people stay within 5km when anyone can go to the airport and travel 500km and bring back whatever they want (covid)

It's a joke and it's time people woke up to it.

smurfjed

unless a country has actually eradicated the virus, like they did in Taiwan.

they still allowed travel with quarantine on arrival.

mandrake04

caveat emptor wrote: »

The problem with trying to fudge quarantine is you'll miss 10% of cases roughly even with testing before. Some people will get it on the plane or in the airport.

Quarantine is as old as the hills as is Cordon sanitaire. There are really no exceptions with a novel virus with no effective treatment and no vaccine.

There's only so many waves people will take, why should people stay within 5km when anyone can go to the airport and travel 500km and bring back whatever they want (covid)

It's a joke and it's time people woke up to it.

it is ....but hey life is a laugh.

theological

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

This is the thing. Most people can tolerate not being able to do something if there's a clear timeframe for it ending. Even if it's longer than they might like.

The not knowing is so damaging to mental health. People are more willing to take risks if they think this could go on another two years or more, especially with elderly relatives who might be dead by the time this is over.

I'm a total pessimist and back in March I thought the absolute worst case scenario would be an entire year of this....restrictions and no travel until March 2021 - this is now looking like the BEST case scenario. I'm supposed to be going to a large event on the continent in April 2021 and I honestly can't imagine a world where things are back to normal enough six months from now, that I'll be able to travel there as normal and attend an international event like that. It's soul crushing.

This virus kills people. I think that's more important than not being able to visit someone.

I agree that's unfortunate. I'm in the same position. We need to get this under control first because stopping people dying of this is more important than getting to see my family this Christmas.

Tazz T

theological wrote: »

I live in the UK. I understand that we can't be cut off forever but we need to focus on sending the virus packing first. Then we can continue whatever international travel we like.

Do that and there will be little international travel left, certainly none that ordinary people like you and I can afford.

Kerry airport has closed, Shannon in on its knees. The businesses that support those airports are hammered. Aer Lingus has sent everyone on fixed rate contracts packing and is looking at another 250 redundancies. That's nearly a quarter of its entire workforce.

The virus may never be gone. We need to plan to live with it. Unfortunately due to the ineptitude of the current government, it may now be too late for Ireland. Even if the government adopts the EU model, it's virtually guaranteed from the rumours already in press it will be such a FUBAR version of it, the green list will actually look like a good plan.

Tenzor07

theological wrote: »

This virus kills people. I think that's more important than not being able to visit someone.
I agree that's unfortunate. I'm in the same position. We need to get this under control first because stopping people dying of this is more important than getting to see my family this Christmas.

Travel/the economy wasn't shut down at any point in Europe for the Flu despite the many 10's of thousands of lives being lost each season... Viruses can lead to deaths, they've been around since the dawn of time... we either live with it or suffer mentally because of it like you appear to be...

You can't save everyone, each minute of every day someone dies of various causes... What we can do is live safely and responsibly with the many diseases which can kill us..

Coming on here repeating the same thing about how travel caused the virus like you've been told numerous times by many people is just a waste of your own time, we all know it, and it was the failures of governments and health authorities all over the world who failed to stop the virus spreading, we all know how a virus spreads through movement of people, if we want to prevent future viruses then guess what, you'll have to confine billions of people to their homes indefinitely...

Just wait until the Nipah virus becomes as contagious as Covid19 is, then we're all in serious trouble!

acequion

Tazz T wrote: »

Kerry airport has closed, .

No Kerry airport is still open thank god. But hanging on by a thread and only open due to the state subsidised Dublin flights so basically on life support. But I fully agree with the rest of your post and am really worried but hoping to god our southern airports, which are a lifeline to those of us who need to travel, will eventually pull through.

theological

Tazz T wrote: »

Do that and there will be little international travel left, certainly none that ordinary people like you and I can afford.

Kerry airport has closed, Shannon in on its knees. The businesses that support those airports are hammered. Aer Lingus has sent everyone on fixed rate contracts packing and is looking at another 250 redundancies. That's nearly a quarter of its entire workforce.

The virus may never be gone. We need to plan to live with it. Unfortunately due to the ineptitude of the current government, it may now be too late for Ireland. Even if the government adopts the EU model, it's virtually guaranteed from the rumours already in press it will be such a FUBAR version of it, the green list will actually look like a good plan.

I'd rather commit to saving lives even if air travel costs me more personally. The travel that took place over the summer is what has led to even more unnecessary economic damage now. This could have been avoided with travel restrictions.

bikeman1

theological wrote: »

I'd rather commit to saving lives even if air travel costs me more personally. The travel that took place over the summer is what has led to even more unnecessary economic damage now. This could have been avoided with travel restrictions.

Are you ever going to give it a rest? Travel accounted for a very small percentage of cases during the summer months.

We know you don’t like travel, that’s fine you can stay put in your four walls for as long as you want. Leave the rest of us to travel responsibly and safely.

normanoffside

theological wrote: »

I'd rather commit to saving lives even if air travel costs me more personally. The travel that took place over the summer is what has led to even more unnecessary economic damage now. This could have been avoided with travel restrictions.

It's not the travel that is dangerous or importing the virus, it's the lack of testing/controls around travel.
Get the latter right and travel can resume and everyone is happy.

Father Hernandez

theological wrote: »

I'd rather commit to saving lives even if air travel costs me more personally. The travel that took place over the summer is what has led to even more unnecessary economic damage now. This could have been avoided with travel restrictions.

If people are tested before traveling, receive a negative result, they should be allowed to travel no?

Stop things at the source and it shouldn't be an issue. People need to travel for one reason or another.

You can't just restrict people forever.

theological

Father Hernandez wrote: »

If people are tested before traveling, receive a negative result, they should be allowed to travel no?

Stop things at the source and it shouldn't be an issue. People need to travel for one reason or another.

You can't just restrict people forever.

In the incubation period (the first 6 days before symptoms) people can test out negative only to test positive later. Testing at airports isn't a silver bullet.

This is why we need travel restrictions and / or mandatory quarantine until this is under control.

Banning travel is to stop things at the source. It is to stop new cases entering.

normanoffside

theological wrote: »

In the incubation period (the first 6 days before symptoms) people can test out negative only to test positive later. Testing at airports isn't a silver bullet.

No but we don't test when coming back from a supermarket or getting off a bus either.
There is risk in everything and this significantly reduces the risks