Will you travel? [Mod Note in Post #1 - Travel Discussion Only! Megathread]

theological

LLMMLL wrote: »

Um you do realise that most countries have done lockdown and no countries (apart from a tiny number) waited until their cases were 0 before removing restrictions.

The virus doesn't need to be "reseeded". It's already in these countries.

When we reopen at start of Decemeber the virus will still be present in Ireland. We won't eradicate it domestically, it's extremely difficult to do.

You're missing the point. We know from the genetic data that the virus was reseeded in Ireland this summer.

Golfman64

I see sheep wrote: »

Was there some talk about mandatory testing at Dublin airport? Sorry if already discussed

No.

SB71

SnowyMay wrote: »

Would just love to fk off for Christmas to somewhere warm. Don’t even care if I have to quarantine. Would book some AirBnb with a balcony. Will be the first Christmas not being at home with family, and I do not want to sit here staring at the walls/fabulous Christmas tree on my own.

considering doing this myself even if ive to go on my own

Tazz T

theological wrote: »

I think you're the one not getting it.

There's no point restricting anything domestically if you're going to open up international travel, because no matter how hard you try to control it, it will get reseeded by international travel. This is what happened in the first wave, and it is what has happened in the second wave.

Domestic controls are useful for getting the virus under control within your own country, but travel controls are helpful for stopping people bringing more of the virus in while you are trying to do that.

The reason why we have lockdowns re-emerging across Europe at the moment is because we left travel open and we allowed more opportunities for the virus to re-enter our countries from elsewhere.

East Asia didn't make this mistake.

Edit: For some reason you're suggesting that I mean literally catching the virus on the plane. Although that could happen, it is more likely that people catch it when out and about in other countries and bring it back in. I'm not sure why people on this side of the argument think that we're saying that it is the plane itself that is the cause of reseeding the virus.

Okay, so we shut down our international borders indefinitely and end the Irish aviation industry? What's your plan for the northern Irish border?

BTW no country has prevented 'reseeding' as you're now putting it. It cannot be achieved.

theological

Tazz T wrote: »

Okay, so we shut down our international borders indefinitely and end the Irish aviation industry? What's your plan for the northern Irish border?

BTW no country has prevented 'reseeding' as you're now putting it. It cannot be achieved.

It's the aviation industry or the economic impact of every other business having to shut and open repeatedly.

I'd support impacting the airline industry over the other areas of the economy. Possibly the government could offer support.

An arrangement could be struck with the UK if we bothered to reach out to them. In England at the moment you're only allowed to travel abroad for work, education and a number of other legally permitted reasons because they are in lockdown.

More here: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from-5-november#travel

Similar models should be adopted in other parts of the UK until this is under control. Ireland should consider following.

Edit: there's been huge success in East Asia where they have restricted travel.

Tazz T

Air travel must continue. It's that simple. The government has already put the industry and supporting industries back 20 years while other European countries have managed it successfuly. You simply can't cut the country off indefinitely.

Asia may have had success but they still have cases. No one has been able to eradicate the virus. We must minimise the impact of the virus while living with it (and we have been very successful to date). It has to play out and should do, like so many other epidemics, by the end of the third wave, which in Ireland should be before next summer.

BTW I'm speaking as an immunology grad whose final year thesis was on the epidemiology of airborne disease.

Van.Bosch

Am I right that all travel insurance is now back in play as the government advice for countries in the EU is now:

General COVID-19 Travel Advisory in Operation

Ireland is implementing the new EU ‘traffic lights’ approach to travel, which applies to countries in the EU / EEA (+ UK). Our current advice for travel to these countries is ‘exercise a high degree of caution’. Our general advice for any other overseas travel remains ‘avoid non-essential travel’ or in some cases, ‘do not travel’. Travel within the island of Ireland can continue as normal, subject to domestic public health restrictions as outlined on gov.ie.

Szero

Just to be clear, if one travels from the UK to Ireland return for Christmas, and if the level is orange then in Ireland and the UK, does one need to get a test 3 days before leaving the UK and then a second test 3 days before leaving Ireland? i.e. 2 tests? Thanks.

Ray Donovan

https://twitter.com/sandra_hurley/status/1325068065801965571?s=21

Where did they pick parts of Greece from??

normanoffside

Ray Donovan wrote: »

https://twitter.com/sandra_hurley/status/1325068065801965571?s=21

Where did they pick parts of Greece from??

from the ECDC website

Ray Donovan

normanoffside wrote: »

from the ECDC website

So why aren’t the Canaries green so...?

3xh

SnowyMay wrote: »

Would just love to fk off for Christmas to somewhere warm. Don’t even care if I have to quarantine. Would book some AirBnb with a balcony. Will be the first Christmas not being at home with family, and I do not want to sit here staring at the walls/fabulous Christmas tree on my own.

Why don’t you? I’m not getting this ‘we’re stuck’ mentality.

The canaries are probably the best bet over Christmas for ensured warmth. You can enter the islands.

If you’d get a AirBnB, even better.

The hardest bit is finding a flight due to so many other people not booking so airlines are cancelling.

3xh

Ray Donovan wrote: »

https://twitter.com/sandra_hurley/status/1325068065801965571?s=21

Where did they pick parts of Greece from??

Sweden? This is from the ECDC website......

Meanwhile on Friday the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said that Finland has by far the lowest coronavirus infection rate in the EU/EEA, with 51.9 cases per 100,000 residents over the past two weeks. Estonia has the second-lowest rate at 91.9.

Meanwhile Scandinavian neighbours Sweden and Norway have rates of 317.1 and 105.3 respectively. The only other countries with less than 200 are Latvia and Ireland. The highest rates are in Belgium and the Czech Republic, both over 1,500.

theological

Szero wrote: »

Just to be clear, if one travels from the UK to Ireland return for Christmas, and if the level is orange then in Ireland and the UK, does one need to get a test 3 days before leaving the UK and then a second test 3 days before leaving Ireland? i.e. 2 tests? Thanks.

The UK isn't a part of the EU system. I don't think you need to quarantine on return from Ireland in the UK at the moment.

Tazz T wrote: »

Air travel must continue. It's that simple. The government has already put the industry and supporting industries back 20 years while other European countries have managed it successfuly. You simply can't cut the country off indefinitely.

Asia may have had success but they still have cases. No one has been able to eradicate the virus. We must minimise the impact of the virus while living with it (and we have been very successful to date). It has to play out and should do, like so many other epidemics, by the end of the third wave, which in Ireland should be before next summer.

BTW I'm speaking as an immunology grad whose final year thesis was on the epidemiology of airborne disease.

Why must it continue? If travel is a key way that the virus has reintroduced itself into our society then it should be an option to restrict it until it is under control.

We wouldn't be in lockdown if the virus hadn't reseeded from travel in Europe this summer. Therefore it could be argued that travel is harming other areas of the economy because it has led to this lockdown. The fact that Ireland is in lockdown disproves your argument that it has done well!

Either we have lockdown easing domestically whilst restricting travel or we have open travel and repeated lockdowns. That's what it looks like until the virus is eradicated.

LLMMLL

theological wrote: »

You're missing the point. We know from the genetic data that the virus was reseeded in Ireland this summer.

The virus was already here in the summer. Yes a strain of coronavirus from Spain was imported into a country (Ireland) that already had different strains of coronavirus and this strain happened to spread. There is no evidence to suggest that if this strain had not been imported that we would be in any different position now.

The main point is that it is domestic behaviour which allowed this strain to flourish. That same behaviour would almost certainly have allowed competing EXISTING strains to flourish if this strain had never been imported.

normanoffside

Ray Donovan wrote: »

So why aren’t the Canaries green so...?

Because the Canaries are red on that map.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/situation-updates/weekly-maps-coordinated-restriction-free-movement

theological

LLMMLL wrote: »

The virus was already here in the summer. Yes a strain of coronavirus from Spain was imported into a country (Ireland) that already had different strains of coronavirus and this strain happened to spread. There is no evidence to suggest that if this strain had not been imported that we would be in any different position now.

The main point is that it is domestic behaviour which allowed this strain to flourish. That same behaviour would almost certainly have allowed competing EXISTING strains to flourish if this strain had never been imported.

It was here but was at extremely low levels. We know from the research published in the FT article that 60% of current infections were from a Spanish strain in the summer.

So the second wave is largely not from existing coronavirus in Ireland.

timeToLive

theological wrote: »

You're missing the point. We know from the genetic data that the virus was reseeded in Ireland this summer.

What is your point/ideal plan?


If we close borders and have very strict measures in place then we can be like New Zealand. We share a land border with Northern Ireland so it's unlikely we can do that.

It was here but was at extremely low levels.

This all started from just 1 case, right? Using that logic.. once the country is open and the virus is here, it will spread.

So the second wave is largely not from existing coronavirus in Ireland.

The split is 40% original, 60% spanish variant

theological

timeToLive wrote: »

What is your point/ideal plan?

If we close borders and have very strict measures in place then we can be like New Zealand. We share a land border with Northern Ireland so it's unlikely we can do that.

This all started from just 1 case, right? Using that logic.. once the country is open and the virus is here, it will spread.

The split is 40% original, 60% spanish variant

There could have been multiple reseeding events over the summer. So not just one case.

Also - in respect to the UK. They have a stricter quarantine and travel policy than Ireland at the moment. Quarantine is legally enforceable there also.

FrStone

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1107/1176560-coronavirus-ireland/

Are we legally obliged to isolate now if we return from Denmark? Or is it just advice?

RTÉ using the phrase 'have to'.

LLMMLL

theological wrote: »

It was here but was at extremely low levels. We know from the research published in the FT article that 60% of current infections were from a Spanish strain in the summer.

So the second wave is largely not from existing coronavirus in Ireland.

You do realize that if the strain is currently responsible for 60% of infections that does not tell you a single thing about the origin of these.infections.

It could have been a single.individual who imported the original case of this strain during the summer while other strains were still circulating.

What you call extremely low levels during the summer was actually 10-20 cases per day in July. Do you know how many cases of this new strain were imported in July?

Here's an example. Person A comes back from Spain infected with new strain in July. She stays with 4 family members and infects them all. 2 of these like to spend their weekends at houseparties. 1 is asymptomatic and goes to a weekend party and infects multiple people. 1 is symptomatic and stays at home. New strain spreads.

Now imagine person A never brought back the new strain from Spain. The two siblings now both attend the party and are both covid-free but one picks up the non-new strain at the party which under the first scenario where one is already infected and one stayed at home wouldn't have happened. Virus still spreads but not the new strain.

While the above scenarios are made up they are plausible.

Do you have any evidence or coherent argument to suggest that

1. The new strain was imported at a greater rate than new cases of existing strains in ireland during July?

2. If this strain was not imported we would have substantially lower numbers currently?

theological

I don't have to prove much other than that travel led to an importation of cases that led to widespread community infection. The fact remains if travel was restricted that wouldn't have happened.

2 is obvious. If there was no re-importation of the virus it wouldn't have led to a scenario where 60% are infected from this strain. And 1 is also obvious if there weren't additional cases the virus would have continued to die out as we saw early in the summer. The second wave in Ireland closely corresponds to other second waves throughout Europe.

The harder argument is on the side of those continuing to argue for free travel when it is actually the cause of new lockdowns across Europe. We didn't learn the first time and it looks like we're still refusing to learn from East Asia a second time.

LLMMLL

theological wrote: »

I don't have to prove much other than that travel led to an importation of cases that led to widespread community infection. The fact remains if travel was restricted that wouldn't have happened.

2 is obvious. If there was no re-importation of the virus it wouldn't have led to a scenario where 60% are infected from this strain. And 1 is also obvious if there weren't additional cases the virus would have continued to die out as we saw early in the summer. The second wave in Ireland closely corresponds to other second waves throughout Europe.

The harder argument is on the side of those continuing to argue for free travel when it is actually the cause of new lockdowns across Europe. We didn't learn the first time and it looks like we're still refusing to learn from East Asia a second time.

Nope 2 is not.obvious as the scenarios I presented show. If someone is not infected with one strain it does not mean they could not get the other strain.

The virus was not dying out over the summer. It was dying out while restrictions were in place up to mid-June. Once the restrictions were removed cases slowly but surely started to grow. There is ZERO evidence that the new strain was imported in larger numbers than domestic transmission of existing strains.

theological

LLMMLL wrote: »

Nope 2 is not.obvious as the scenarios I presented show. If someone is not infected with one strain it does not mean they could not get the other strain.

The virus was not dying out over the summer. It was dying out while restrictions were in place up to mid-June. Once the restrictions were removed cases slowly but surely started to grow. There is ZERO evidence that the new strain was imported in larger numbers than domestic transmission of existing strains.

Apart from 60% being from a strain that entered Ireland in the summer. Your argument makes no logical sense. It is ostrich syndrome. Ignoring that travel introduced the virus into Ireland and re-introduced it in a big way in the summer.

Claiming that travel had nothing to do with the second wave when the facts show otherwise is where the absurdity lies.

There's no point attempting to reason with those who don't want to hear reason.

timeToLive

theological wrote: »

Apart from 60% being from a strain that entered Ireland in the summer. Your argument makes no logical sense. It is ostrich syndrome. Ignoring that travel introduced the virus into Ireland and re-introduced it in a big way in the summer.

Claiming that travel had nothing to do with the second wave when the facts show otherwise is where the absurdity lies.

There's no point attempting to reason with those who don't want to hear reason.

The virus was already here and therefore would have spread. Everyone was doing stay-cations, meeting friends and families and gathering in houses. Pubs opened outside Dublin and schools reopened. It was inevitable that the cases would rise... right?

LLMMLL

theological wrote: »

Apart from 60% being from a strain that entered Ireland in the summer. Your argument makes no logical sense. It is ostrich syndrome. Ignoring that travel introduced the virus into Ireland and re-introduced it in a big way in the summer.

Claiming that travel had nothing to do with the second wave when the facts show otherwise is where the absurdity lies.

There's no point attempting to reason with those who don't want to hear reason.

I never said travel had nothing to do with the second wave. I'm saying your interpretation of the whole 60% Spanish strain thing is completely wrong.

There is no evidence that we would be in a different position numbers wise if that strain had not been imported. We could easily have the same number of total cases, (or more, or less) if this strain had never been imported. There is no way of knowing and your reasoning is clearly false and lacks even basic critical skills.

naughtysmurf

Ray Donovan wrote: »

So why aren’t the Canaries green so...?

The Canaries have an incidence of 72.7 / 100,000 in the last 14 days, 40.5 / 100,000 in the last 7 days

On 6/11 new cases in previous 24 hours 170

Tenerife 113
Gran Canaria 36
Lanzarote 14
Fuerteventura 7

With the remainder spread over the remaining smaller islands . The islands are treated as a whole but only Tenerife is actually red based on the numbers afaik

Tenzor07

It’s completely false to say any holidays to Spain “reseeded” a virus that was already here. As no one went on holidays over the summer.
Maybe in the UK but this is an Irish forum.

Tenzor07

LLMMLL wrote: »

There is no evidence that we would be in a different position numbers wise if that strain had not been imported. We could easily have the same number of total cases, (or more, or less) if this strain had never been imported. There is no way of knowing and your reasoning is clearly false and lacks even basic critical skills.

Very true, maybe in the UK this was a factor but not in Ireland as no one travelled in the summer.

goingnowhere

To be green you need to be under 25 cases/100.000/14 days

Yellow is up to 150 cases but with a positivity rate of under 4% with a condition that the level of testing undertaken is sufficient