Will you travel? [Mod Note in Post #1 - Travel Discussion Only! Megathread]

TobyHolmes

yoshimitsu wrote: »

I came across this chart that tracks number of flights in China (domestic and international) against number of Covid cases:


(attached below in case it doesnt show)

The time series ends in August but checking the source (flightradar24) we're still averaging 80-100% of pre-COVID domestic flight volumes, depending on the month.

So how have they done it? They haven't banned domestic traveling, quite the opposite. They've restricted (but not banned) international flights to 20-30% of pre-Covid levels. So how? I'll take a stab at it but really looking forward to people views (black, white or whatever shade of grey they may be):

1. "The data is fake. China is a dictatorship and government controls the news". Partially true but the data is provided by flightradar24 (non-Chinese, used by IATA, the global body that represents the global industry). Similar stats looking at tickets sold are compiled by other non-Chinese organizations (e.g. ForwardKeys). Actually, if you look at the stats for Japan and S. Korea, they tell a similar story

2. "The restrictions on international flights is what matters, dummy". Possibly but I'd venture to say that in a country with 1.3bn inhabitants and a land mass 2x+ that of W. Europe it doesn’t really matter if you are crossing any border while flying from Harbin to Sanya (ca. 4000 kms; 6hr flight). It matters if you're flying from an area of high cases to an area of low cases (more on that later). Using the US as an example, international flights have averaged 20-30% of pre-Covid levels (and domestic flights only back to 40-50%) and yet the stats around cases and deaths have been among the worst globally

3. Could it be that the response to COVID as a whole has been more efficient in terms of testing, tracing, timely quarantines and, most importantly, people's adherence to those policies? The focus hasn’t been on not letting people travel full stop. The focus is on not letting people travel (travel in broad sense meaning going from point A to point B by whatever means over whatever distance) if you come from a place with high number of cases

As an example, take what happened in the city of Kashgar in late Oct. A city of 4.7m inhabitants was locked down in strict quarantine as a cluster was developing. In 10 days they tested the ENTIRE population and found 140 asymptomatic cases. During those 10 days you were not allowed to travel. Not by plane, train, bus, minivan, taxi, motorcycle, bicycle, scooter or by foot. You couldn’t travel to Beijing, Hong-Kong, Macau, Lanzarote or the village 15km away, no matter what excuse you gave to the Red Army on the way to the airport. Once the entire population of the city was tested and those infected isolated, the city was re-opened and you were allowed to travel again anywhere in the country using whatever mean of transportation you fancied.

China is a dictatorship with severe limitation to civil rights so the adherence to the rules cant be replicated in many Western countries. But take Japan and S. Korea which have democratic governments and have seen similar trends to China. The difference is that they had experience with several other epidemics (either at home or very close) and they knew what to do from day 1, applied the rules consistently (without the worry of the political cost involved with the harsh measures) avoiding the general lockdown/easing/lockdown/easing that we've seen in the Western world and that has been so costly, in human and economic sense.

Irish policies have been inconsistent and ineffective. Testing has been slow to ramp and still not at the levels where it should be. Contract tracing is slow and ineffective. Easing of restrictions in early December properly reckless. This is not to point to the finger at Ireland; I follow Italian and Spanish news because I have family there and they've made a royal mess of it as well.

Travel restrictions are necessary at times and they are an useful tool to reduce (not eliminate) the risk of importing the virus from high risk areas but total travel bans are impractical, unnecessary and ineffective if not done in combination with strict, consistent and efficient local policies

did the Irish govt not reach out to the countries with high success rates to get assistance with a plan, or did they solely rely on WHO (did WHO reach out to successful countries - I presume they did) or did the Irish gov't just lead us all blindly into this shambles?

ninebeanrows

Just to highlight that Leo Varadkar is the most pro-open borders.

So if you want some reduced friction this summer, the last person we need to lose is Leo.

TobyHolmes

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Just to highlight that Leo Varadkar is the most pro-open borders.

So if you want some reduced friction this summer, the last person we need to lose is Leo.

If he wasn't involved we'd be locked in our homes for the next 2 or 3 years with the local Priest ensuring we are at home.

:pac:

ninebeanrows

Will the bar be open in the quarantine hotels! Room service i hope

faceman

We need to stop calling them quarantine hotels and call them what they are: detention centres.You’re not allowed leave the hotel room whatsoever and there is no natural air or sunlight exposure

Gael23

When level 5 ends non essential journeyed will be allowed so what happens to intentional travel then?

km991148

faceman wrote: »

We need to stop calling them quarantine hotels and call them what they are: detention centres.You’re not allowed leave the hotel room whatsoever and there is no natural air or sunlight exposure

But there isn't a punishment aspect, which is what is implied by 'detention'. It is quarantine, pure and simple?!

Gael23

Gael23 wrote: »

When level 5 ends non essential journeyed will be allowed so what happens to intentional travel then?

Maybe what they copy what is being implementing in the UK which is a pre travel declaration laying out the purpose of the trip, which needs to be approved by the airline before you can board. Sure, it’s pretty soft, but no less than telling a guard that you’re “moving to Spain”

yoshimitsu

TobyHolmes wrote: »

did the Irish govt not reach out to the countries with high success rates to get assistance with a plan, or did they solely rely on WHO (did WHO reach out to successful countries - I presume they did) or did the Irish gov't just lead us all blindly into this shambles?

good question. i thought much of the initial guidelines from NPHET and the government (both local and travel related), contradicted what the WHO and ECDC said. in fairness, they contradicted themselves initially as well but eventually went on to give more consistent guidelines.

faceman

km991148 wrote: »

But there isn't a punishment aspect, which is what is implied by 'detention'. It is quarantine, pure and simple?!

The individual has no say, no right of reply and no right to freedom during the process.

And let’s be serious here. Given the prime time shaming of people in the airport last night, people are out for blood.

As frank zappa once said, it’s total criminality

Prisoners and animals in rescue centres are treated better

faceman

faceman wrote: »

We need to stop calling them quarantine hotels and call them what they are: detention centres.You’re not allowed leave the hotel room whatsoever and there is no natural air or sunlight exposure

no, they arent as you have volunteered for this system

Thats like calling an aeroplane a flying detention centre

copeyhagen

Benimar wrote: »

They can't, but can issue someone with a nice €500 fine for travelling to the airport.

so if i live within 5km, which i do ,then they can go **** themselves basically?

josip

copeyhagen wrote: »

so if i live within 5km, which i do ,then they can go **** themselves basically?

5km is only for exercising.
So if you cycle or jog there you'll be fine.
Something like this would do,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39fC1EzAhbQ&t=5s

Benimar

copeyhagen wrote: »

so if i live within 5km, which i do ,then they can go **** themselves basically?

5km is irrelevant. If it’s non essential travel, then they can fine you and the only one fcuked is you.

km991148

faceman wrote: »

The individual has no say, no right of reply and no right to freedom during the process.

And let’s be serious here. Given the prime time shaming of people in the airport last night, people are out for blood.

Exactly. Quarantine. For a virus. Not punishment for misbehaving.

Prime time bs us just usual sensationalism. No point getting upset about it.

copeyhagen

copeyhagen wrote: »

so if i live within 5km, which i do ,then they can go **** themselves basically?

With that attitude, good luck avoiding a fine.

Gael23

Gael23 wrote: »

When level 5 ends non essential journeyed will be allowed so what happens to intentional travel then?

Again you are assuming that. They can reduce certain aspects but still restrict others.

They could extend the distance for exercise and allow additional opening but still limit overall distance. For arguments sake, pubs open but you can still only go 10km.

Forget the little leaflet we all got in the post, they aren't sticking to that anyway

theguzman

I'll pose a qustion, what about people who have to travel for their mental health? Depression and Suicide levels are at their highest levels ever in this country, there is no mental health services support available, GP services will not see you and there is nowhere for people to turn. This time of year is hard enough on vulnerable people never mind living under such a draconian regime of restrictions.

I sadly know people who have taken their own life since Christmas, I know other people who would probably have done something similar but they jumped on Ryanair and got the hell out of dodge. These people did the right thing and their own sanity comes first, we are not all in this together, it is everyman for himself sink or swim.

I myself travel alot; primarily to avoid the horrendous weather we have here where I live, I cannot describe the boost I feel as soon as I have a ticket booked and immediately I am counting down the days until I am sitting on a plane usually going 12+ hrs to somewhere nice, warm and stimulating for the mind. People often asked me what was the best thing about living in Ireland and my reply is the Irish passport that opens so many doors around the world.

People should not judge others as no-one has an idea of what is going in other peoples lives. Society is dog eat dog and people must do whatever they choose to protect themselves from Covid but they cannot impinge on the rest of the population to live their lives as they wish, there is a thing called personal freedom, conscience and freedom. If the guards try fine me let them, when I go to meet my maker I go with a clean conscience and let those who are not guilty cast the first stone.

blowin3

I am in an awful bind now. My wife and I and children are emigrating July and they start new schools in August. I take it I will be aloud leave by our great leaders. I would not put anything past this power hungry bunch but glad to be getting out.

RobitTV

What about if I book something in April to go abroad? surely things will be better by then!?

Such a joke.

TobyHolmes

theguzman wrote: »

I'll pose a qustion, what about people who have to travel for their mental health? Depression and Suicide levels are at their highest levels ever in this country, there is no mental health services support available, GP services will not see you and there is nowhere for people to turn. This time of year is hard enough on vulnerable people never mind living under such a draconian regime of restrictions.

I sadly know people who have taken their own life since Christmas, I know other people who would probably have done something similar but they jumped on Ryanair and got the hell out of dodge. These people did the right thing and their own sanity comes first, we are not all in this together, it is everyman for himself sink or swim.

I myself travel alot; primarily to avoid the horrendous weather we have here where I live, I cannot describe the boost I feel as soon as I have a ticket booked and immediately I am counting down the days until I am sitting on a plane usually going 12+ hrs to somewhere nice, warm and stimulating for the mind. People often asked me what was the best thing about living in Ireland and my reply is the Irish passport that opens so many doors around the world.

People should not judge others as no-one has an idea of what is going in other peoples lives. Society is dog eat dog and people must do whatever they choose to protect themselves from Covid but they cannot impinge on the rest of the population to live their lives as they wish, there is a thing called personal freedom, conscience and freedom. If the guards try fine me let them, when I go to meet my maker I go with a clean conscience and let those who are not guilty cast the first stone.

well said. these absolutionists dont care about anything other than covid - there are ripple effects. thats why NPHET are not the gov't because gov't supposed to factor in everything

TobyHolmes

RobitTV wrote: »

What about if I book something in April to go abroad? surely things will be better by then!?

Such a joke.

such a bad joke

TobyHolmes

blowin3 wrote: »

I am in an awful bind now. My wife and I and children are emigrating July and they start new schools in August. I take it I will be aloud leave by our great leaders. I would not put anything past this power hungry bunch but glad to be getting out.

you'll be fine - you are allowed to leave. you are allowed to move residence.



just dont be caught on camera the unreasonable mob will be crying out for blood.

RobitTV

Even by the summer, the mob will still be out for blood. How depressing..

People can't just get on with their own lives without getting themselves involved in the private affairs of others.

ninebeanrows

RobitTV wrote: »

What about if I book something in April to go abroad? surely things will be better by then!?

Such a joke.

The mood music changes every month.

6 weeks ago we are opening up and all confident.

It changes very quickly.

Travel situation at severest now is probably a good thing as lots of time to open up before the summer.

Regardless essential travel will always be allowed.

However, how does the quarantine situation work with essential travel I wonder?

Northernlily

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

The mood music changes every month.

6 weeks ago we are opening up and all confident.

It changes very quickly.

Travel situation at severest now is probably a good thing as lots of time to open up before the summer.

Regardless essential travel will always be allowed.

However, how does the quarantine situation work with essential travel I wonder?

6 weeks ago everything was opened up and I was confident looking at the data here and abroad to travel. Took the relevant tests etc.

Suddenly the narrative is today that I'm bad for travelling.

As I said, the Government have made a total **** up in their response leading to a catastrophic January and they are trying to shunt the blame towards travellers and the public to deflect.

It is very obvious. From Day 1 they have not been clear in their message on various items, and left plenty of room for ambiguity.

Donald Trump

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

6 weeks ago we are opening up and all confident.

6 weeks ago - 16th December?


My recollection of the discussion going around that time is fairly much the opposite of that to be honest.

ninebeanrows

Donald Trump wrote: »

6 weeks ago - 16th December?


My recollection of the discussion going around that time is fairly much the opposite of that to be honest.

8 weeks, beg my pardon, you get the idea, things change very quickly

Spring/Summer will arrive , the vaccine will be into all the over 60s and we will be more positive.

Donald Trump

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

8 weeks, beg my pardon, you get the idea, things change very quickly

Spring/Summer will arrive , the vaccine will be into all the over 60s and we will be more positive.

Yeah. The difficulty is trying to predict how well people behave when the restrictions are lifted.


Although the messing around Christmas was predicted. I think they just turned a blind eye and hoped for the best

faceman

Niner leprauchan wrote: »

no, they arent as you have volunteered for this system

Thats like calling an aeroplane a flying detention centre

Not my words

They’re called detention centres in some other countries. Alongside immigration detention centres.