Will you travel? [Mod Note in Post #1 - Travel Discussion Only! Megathread]

Coybig_

Golfman64 wrote: »

Some positive news from the UK this morning with vaccine passports and a resumption of travel to many European destinations looking increasingly likely from May/June.

Given it’s only early Feb, this is some much needed positivity for the industry. I can see Europe following suit.

Dont know how much of a positive vaccine passports are, at least in the short term.

The workforce, who are least affected by covid will have stayed at home to protect the vulnerable and elderly, who will then be the people who are vaccinated at that point and can go on holiday?

faceman

Broadsheet.ie interviewed Dr. Jack Lambert last night. He’s an infectious diseases consultant who occasionally has articles in the media and isn’t a big fan of lockdown. He briefly answers a question on travel. Acknowledges controls are necessary but says we should be currently focusing on other areas

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI2x1EHCbD8

Coybig_

Coybig_ wrote: »

Dont know how much of a positive vaccine passports are, at least in the short term.

The workforce, who are least affected by covid will have stayed at home to protect the vulnerable and elderly, who will then be the people who are vaccinated at that point and can go on holiday?

I think that the UK will really get behind this given that I saw predictions in the guardian yesterday (base case scenario) that all adults will have been offered their first jab by May. And the Spanish and Italians and Greeks would I am sure welcome an influx of British tourists

caveat emptor

daydorunrun wrote: »

Your showing your age there!

Turn away from the dark side young Padawan.

I'm sure Frank and Una will be grand navigating their own houses for two weeks or 5 days with a test. Unless you think the Empire will introduce detention centres for OAP's with negitive PCR's coming from areas of low infection?

Ah it's a timeless classic. It reveals nothing of my age. It was a shake up between that an Frozen 2.

Well I note your use of the word "Detention centre". I guess this is an attempt by the airline industry to scaremonger the population into not supporting it.

A four start hotel beside the airport is hardly a detention centre. Frank and Una would be well suited to 2 weeks of daytime TV and Netflix. Meals delivered to your room. Sounds lovely tbh.

Mandatory hotel quarantine could be a godsend to the native hotel industry which is in fairly dire straits of late. Like how many people would want to stay in a hotel 5 km from there house?

Donald Trump

Deleted User wrote: »

I think that the UK will really get behind this given that I saw predictions in the guardian yesterday (base case scenario) that all adults will have been offered their first jab by May. And the Spanish and Italians and Greeks would I am sure welcome an influx of British tourists

Do you not understand that the vaccine protects the vaccinated, not the non-vaccinated?


They think that one of the vaccines might reduce transmission to a third. That means that if a non-vaccinated corona-carrying person went into a room of 100 people for 30 minutes and say infected 9 of them, then if that person had been vaccinated, that they would have only infected 3 rather than 9 (statistically speaking of course). So it does not follow that you would be welcomed after you are vaccinated.



Italy may require a vaccine for you to arrive later on in the process. i.e after their own population is vaccinated. At that point they are trying to minimize the risk that they would need to provide hospital care to you.



So you will need both - your own vaccine and for the country you are going to to be completed their own vaccination program.

Wallander

polesheep wrote: »

Do you have a link to that? Thanks.

I did a search and this came up https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13955422/vaccine-passport-brit-holidays/


I'm looking forward to the inevitable NPHET press briefing in the spring when they say allowing the vaccinated to travel is a terribly dangerous idea as 1% may be carrying the virus and will go crazy running around coughing over everyone and cause another lockdown which will happen regardless

Nermal

Issybelle wrote: »

The bitterness may be coming from the fact that so many people tried to do the right thing and follow the guidelines.

Bria Unsightly Paragraph wrote: »

Or a case of people saying 'I'm making endless sacrifices to try and stop this thing spreading, and those sacrifices are being undermined by selfish twats who have decided the rules don't apply to them'

Sacrifices you made of your own free will. Frank and Una didn't force you to make them. Revel in your martyrdom all you like. It's not a stick you can use to hit others.

polesheep

Wallander wrote: »

I did a search and this came up https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13955422/vaccine-passport-brit-holidays/


I'm looking forward to the inevitable NPHET press briefing in the spring when they say allowing the vaccinated to travel is a terribly dangerous idea as 1% may be carrying the virus and will go crazy running around coughing over everyone and cause another lockdown which will happen regardless

Damn, I clicked on the link before reading it and now my eyes have been burnt by the Sun.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump wrote: »

Do you not understand that the vaccine protects the vaccinated, not the non-vaccinated?


They think that one of the vaccines might reduce transmission to a third. That means that if a non-vaccinated corona-carrying person went into a room of 100 people for 30 minutes and say infected 9 of them, then if that person had been vaccinated, that they would have only infected 3 rather than 9 (statistically speaking of course). So it does not follow that you would be welcomed after you are vaccinated.



Italy may require a vaccine for you to arrive later on in the process. i.e after their own population is vaccinated. At that point they are trying to minimize the risk that they would need to provide hospital care to you.



So you will need both - your own vaccine and for the country you are going to to be completed their own vaccination program.

I understand that. But think that the UK will join Denmark, Sweden, Israel and others that clearly have vaccination passports on their agenda. And there is an increasing amount of evidence, reported only this week in fact and discussed on the vaccination thread, that the vaccinations do in fact reduce transmission.

Bring vaccination passports on, I say, and open up some travel corridors

Donald Trump

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Much safer traveling to the Canaries to stay there for a few months than to stay here, with lower population density, a modern healthcare system, great weather and low infection rates it's ideal for those who can stay for a longer period, they may even get vaccinated quicker over there than Ireland too...

Tenzor, there is a concept in game theory where individual actors always make decisions that, all else equal, will guarantee each of them the best possible outcome compared to the alternatives.


You then arrive at a thing called a Nash equilibrium. However this is frequently far away from the actual global optimum.



You cannot make decisions on a macro policy level that allow all individual actors to break a minor rule (with what they each consider to be a negligible effect overall) in order to increase their personal benefit marginally. Every person will then do their own "minor wrong" thing. And each will be marginally better off than if they had not done the "minor wrong" thing. But overall, everyone will be a lot worse off than if nobody was allowed to do it.

caveat emptor

Wallander wrote: »

I did a search and this came up https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13955422/vaccine-passport-brit-holidays/


I'm looking forward to the inevitable NPHET press briefing in the spring when they say allowing the vaccinated to travel is a terribly dangerous idea as 1% may be carrying the virus and will go crazy running around coughing over everyone and cause another lockdown which will happen regardless

Fact is there is limited data on the vaccines effect on transmission. We don't know if it prevents transmission. We know it prevents illness but you could see where loads of people fresh off the plane think they are bullet proof and leave a trail of destruction not seen since Typhoid Mary.

That's the hyperbolic response.

The scientific response is we don't know yet and more data is needed. Don't take my word for it though. Here's the Australian chief medical officer. Who besides having a good Irish name is also and an epidemiologist.

https://twitter.com/Quicktake/status/1357532225810673666?s=20

caveat emptor

Deleted User wrote: »

I understand that. But think that the UK will join Denmark, Sweden, Israel and others that clearly have vaccination passports on their agenda. And there is an increasing amount of evidence, reported only this week in fact and discussed on the vaccination thread, that the vaccinations do in fact reduce transmission.

Bring vaccination passports on, I say, and open up some travel corridors

It was only astrazenica unfortunately. No data on whether Pfizer or moderna do.
AZ is currently less efficacious than both Pfizer and moderna. There is also a suggestion based on the current data and the variant that it is not efficacious enough to reach herd immunity.

Tazz T

Donald Trump wrote: »

Do you not understand that the vaccine protects the vaccinated, not the non-vaccinated?


They think that one of the vaccines might reduce transmission to a third. That means that if a non-vaccinated corona-carrying person went into a room of 100 people for 30 minutes and say infected 9 of them, then if that person had been vaccinated, that they would have only infected 3 rather than 9 (statistically speaking of course). So it does not follow that you would be welcomed after you are vaccinated.



Italy may require a vaccine for you to arrive later on in the process. i.e after their own population is vaccinated. At that point they are trying to minimize the risk that they would need to provide hospital care to you.



So you will need both - your own vaccine and for the country you are going to to be completed their own vaccination program.

Greece has already said it will be open with minimum restrictions for those that have been vaccinated. In fairness, numbers were low all through last summer with 100s of 1000s flying in daily, and didn't rise until after the season ended (there's definitely a seasonal aspect to the virus' epidemiology).

Tenzor07

Tazz T wrote: »

Greece has already said it will be open with minimum restrictions for those that have been vaccinated. In fairness, numbers were low all through last summer with 100s of 1000s flying in daily, and didn't rise until after the season ended (there's definitely a seasonal aspect to the virus' epidemiology).

Greece had a hard lockdown pretty much until August and then back again into Lockdown around October iirc, the season was very quiet.. infection rates on the island was very low, and they had random then mandatory PCR swabs at the Airports so managed the whole thing very well, unlike Ireland...

Relaunching tourism will be very important to the Greek economy...

daydorunrun

caveat emptor wrote: »

Ah it's a timeless classic. It reveals nothing of my age. It was a shake up between that an Frozen 2.

Well I note your use of the word "Detention centre". I guess this is an attempt by the airline industry to scaremonger the population into not supporting it.

A four start hotel beside the airport is hardly a detention centre. Frank and Una would be well suited to 2 weeks of daytime TV and Netflix. Meals delivered to your room. Sounds lovely tbh.

Mandatory hotel quarantine could be a godsend to the native hotel industry which is in fairly dire straits of late. Like how many people would want to stay in a hotel 5 km from there house?

I personally don't think we'll be seeing OAP's being put in hotels for two weeks, time will tell I suppose.

Out of interest where do you see this going- where is the end game?

You are on here a lot posting tweets and articles so I presume you are well up on the how things are developing. We are currently in an indefinite lockdown without any talk even of a roadmap out. We don't know if vaccines stop transmission or when their effects will wear off, we don't know if previous infection gives us long immunity. The goal posts have moved from living with covid to remaining in lockdown- are you happy for that to remain the case? Or is there any room for allowing people to make calls for their own safety and well-being?

Tazz T

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Greece had a hard lockdown pretty much until August and then back again into Lockdown around October iirc, the season was very quiet.. infection rates on the island was very low, and they had random then mandatory PCR swabs at the Airports so managed the whole thing very well, unlike Ireland...

Relaunching tourism will be very important to the Greek economy...

That's the point I'm making. I was there in Crete in July and September (single figure infections) and it was business as usual. Although bars/tavernas were closing at midnight in September, there were very few restrictions. The random testing at the airport worked well. While it was quieter than usual, it wasn't overly quiet. But numbers remained low throughout the entire season, only rising when the weather changed in October and people moved back inside.

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think that the UK will really get behind this given that I saw predictions in the guardian yesterday (base case scenario) that all adults will have been offered their first jab by May. And the Spanish and Italians and Greeks would I am sure welcome an influx of British tourists

Not at you directly op - but I kind have to laugh at some who are so pro going on holiday atm from Ireland - cos they believe they know better than any government advice issued against non essential travel.

Whilst in the UK - it has been made illegal to travel abroad for holidays and other leisure purposes.

COVID-19 Travel

Under current UK COVID-19 restrictions, you must stay at home. You must not travel, including abroad, unless you have a legally permitted reason to do so. It is illegal to travel abroad for holidays and other leisure purposes. 

https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice

And now many of those who left before the above regulations were introduced face a mandatory detention of 10 days in addition to testing.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/hotel-quarantines-uk-full-red-list-countries-b901447.html

And some think things are draconian here :pac:

caveat emptor

daydorunrun wrote: »

I personally don't think we'll be seeing OAP's being put in hotels for two weeks, time will tell I suppose.

Out of interest where do you see this going- where is the end game?

Herd immunity through critical threshold of the population being vaccinated.
Only problem with this is that even if we are all sitting pretty with 80% + of the population vaccinated which looks to be a way off, it'll still be spreading in the developing world.

While it continues to evolve there is the possibility we will see variants with the possibility of immune escape. (as we have seen with the SA variant) so curbs on travel to some parts of the world might still be needed until vaccine rolled out there.

As for people making calls for there own safety I think when you have the potential to cause spread of illness which can lead to death I think your personal liberty and freedoms end at the point where you cause other's harm.

Hopefully the vaccine roll out accelerated globally.

bladespin

caveat emptor wrote: »

As for people making calls for there own safety I think when you have the potential to cause spread of illness which can lead to death I think your personal liberty and freedoms end at the point where you cause other's harm.

Agree with a lot of what you said there but as for the above, we've always had the possibility of causing serious harm including death to others through our actions (long before Covid was a thing) so don't agree it should infringe our liberty.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Herd immunity through critical threshold of the population being vaccinated.
Only problem with this is that even if we are all sitting pretty with 80% + of the population vaccinated which looks to be a way off, it'll still be spreading in the developing world.

While it continues to evolve there is the possibility we will see variants with the possibility of immune escape. (as we have seen with the SA variant) so curbs on travel to some parts of the world might still be needed until vaccine rolled out there.

As for people making calls for there own safety I think when you have the potential to cause spread of illness which can lead to death I think your personal liberty and freedoms end at the point where you cause other's harm.

Hopefully the vaccine roll out accelerated globally.

Europe will open up way before the timeline that you describe, which probably runs into 2023 or 2024. I would agree that there will continue to be restrictions on travel from certain countries that have low vaccination rates and high prevalence (and therefore higher risk of mutations) but we won’t be waiting for global herd immunity before we get back to normality.

caveat emptor

bladespin wrote: »

Agree with a lot of what you said there but as for the above, we've always had the possibility of causing serious harm including death to others through our actions (long before Covid was a thing) so don't agree it should infringe our liberty.

Yeah ok but this is a systematic problem. The consequences of not following guidelines are real. If a few people don't follow the guidelines it seem like much and is negligible in the grand scheme.

The problem is when many people don't follow them there is a cascading effect which results in some pretty bad outcomes for the country.

• non emergency care cancelled
• children not being able to go school
• business shut for months

Frank and Una were good craic to listen to but I don't think they should be given air time. If 1 in 10 people emulate them, then we'll be back to square one.

In fact I'm perfectly fine with people going and returning and it only really makes sense to people who have that kind of time on their hands. Mandatory hotel quarantine is needed otherwise everyone staying within 5km is an utter farce and we'll be back to square one before enough vaccine is in enough arms.

bladespin

caveat emptor wrote: »

In fact I'm perfectly fine with people going and returning and it only really makes sense to people who have that kind of time on their hands. Mandatory hotel quarantine is needed otherwise everyone staying within 5km is an utter farce and we'll be back to square one before enough vaccine is in enough arms.

The 5km is a farce, I've traveled the length and breadth of the country this past week, that's fine, I walk or cycle 6km and it's an issue????

caveat emptor

Deleted User wrote: »

Europe will open up way before the timeline that you describe, which probably runs into 2023 or 2024. I would agree that there will continue to be restrictions on travel from certain countries that have low vaccination rates and high prevalence (and therefore higher risk of mutations) but we won’t be waiting for global herd immunity before we get back to normality.

Yeah you are probably right but look at the effect this variant is having. We are using cases decline rapidly but the proportion of the variant is increasing and as a result the absolute number of variant cases is not declining with the current restrictions.

Opening schools will be a powder keg.

https://twitter.com/Robbie_Roulston/status/1357479321745698820?s=20

faceman

caveat emptor wrote: »

Yeah you are probably right but look at the effect this variant is having. We are using cases decline rapidly but the proportion of the variant is increasing and as a result the absolute number of variant cases is not declining with the current restrictions.

Opening schools will be a powder keg.

https://twitter.com/Robbie_Roulston/status/1357479321745698820?s=20

All the more reason why the concept of zero covid is a myth

caveat emptor

faceman wrote: »

All the more reason why the concept of zero covid is a myth

Zerocovid? What do you mean? Who's talking about that.

I was talking about mandatory hotel quarantine for inbound travellers. For instance that would have prevented the Spanish variant coming here during the summer. Do you remember? It didn't walk here. It actually accounted for the majority of cases in Ireland in October.

The likes of Frank and Una played a part in that IMHO and that's why we need to use our empty hotels.

A coronavirus variant that originated in Spanish farm workers has spread rapidly through much of Europe since the summer, and now accounts for the majority of new Covid-19 cases in several countries– and 60 per cent in Ireland.
An international team of scientists that has been tracking the virus through its genetic mutations has described the extraordinary spread of the variant, called 20A.EU1, in a research paper to be published on Thursday.

Their work suggests that people returning from holiday in Spain played a key role in transmitting the virus across Europe, raising questions about whether the second wave that is sweeping the continent could have been reduced by improved screening at airports and other transport hubs.

https://twitter.com/IrishTimes/status/1321757579656220672?s=20

Tenzor07

bladespin wrote: »

The 5km is a farce, I've traveled the length and breadth of the country this past week, that's fine, I walk or cycle 6km and it's an issue????

True, the 5km restriction makes no sense, won't prevent anything but is a nice bit of window dressing to keep the Lockdowners happy..
Traveled from Dublin to Cork and back during the week, not a bother, but can't go for a hike up the Dublin mountains being outside the 5k.

bladespin

caveat emptor wrote: »

Zerocovid? What do you mean? Who's talking about that.

I was talking about mandatory hotel quarantine for inbound travellers. For instance that would have prevented the Spanish variant coming here during the summer. Do you remember? It didn't walk here. It actually accounted for the majority of cases in Ireland in October.

I wonder though, the first documented case here actually landed in Dublin airport but continued on to the North, could they force a mandatory quarantine in a case like that?
Can you hold someone against their will?
Would travellers into the ROI from NI be forced to quarantine?
Could you do one with the other?

BTW I don't expect you to answer them, just pointing out some of the obvious questions.

caveat emptor

bladespin wrote: »

I wonder though, the first documented case here actually landed in Dublin airport but continued on to the North, could they force a mandatory quarantine in a case like that?
Can you hold someone against their will?
Would travellers into the ROI from NI be forced to quarantine?
Could you do one with the other?

BTW I don't expect you to answer them, just pointing out some of the obvious questions.

I don't know but what I do know is that we didn't even try. Disgrace really.

North ministers ‘frustrated’ at failure of Dublin to provide traveller locator forms
Concerns raised about people flying into the Republic and travelling to Northern Ireland

Northern Executive ministers have “vented their frustration” at what they say is failure of the Government in Dublin to provide locator forms about people flying into the Republic and then travelling to Northern Ireland.
First Minister Arlene Foster said that Ministers at a meeting of the Northern Executive on Thursday had asked that the issue be urgently raised with Taoiseach Micheal Martin.
Ms Foster, who gave a press conference with Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill in Dungannon, Co Tyrone on Thursday evening, said the matter had been raised with the Government as least as far back as July.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/north-ministers-frustrated-at-failure-of-dublin-to-provide-traveller-locator-forms-1.4458374

daydorunrun

caveat emptor wrote: »

Herd immunity through critical threshold of the population being vaccinated.
Only problem with this is that even if we are all sitting pretty with 80% + of the population vaccinated which looks to be a way off, it'll still be spreading in the developing world.

While it continues to evolve there is the possibility we will see variants with the possibility of immune escape. (as we have seen with the SA variant) so curbs on travel to some parts of the world might still be needed until vaccine rolled out there.

As for people making calls for there own safety I think when you have the potential to cause spread of illness which can lead to death I think your personal liberty and freedoms end at the point where you cause other's harm.

Hopefully the vaccine roll out accelerated globally.

Just on that point- I don't think we are even 30% compliant in terms of people adhering to rules. Whether that's going out the front door for a non essential reason, going beyond 5k, meeting other people. I've plucked that % from the air of course but what I'm saying it's impossible for society to follow these rules with no end in sight.

My 11 yr old is really struggling at the moment- facing a computer screen all day as a means of education and not being able to see her friends. We were Tesco yesterday as she had to get some stuff for school work (I had to think twice about bringing her in the shop as technically it's against 'the rules'), there were groups of kids and teenagers hanging around inside and out. She's looking at that and thinking why am I being stopped from hanging out with my friends and they are not? Big groups of teenagers from a dozen households hanging around together all day is in effect making all those households close contacts, so which rules need to be enforced and which ones are to be ignored? I'm not complaining about those kids btw.

I realised very early in this that we can't expect much of others as it will lead you down a road of ill will, animosity and a general feeling of despair. That is why I decided to make my own calls on safety and look after my family as I saw fit. The rules and regulations of this 'new normal' are like swiss cheese at this stage.

There is so much worse going on than what the Joe Duffy show was broadcasting yesterday, it's just the travel issue riles people up because they still feel they are working towards something i.e. getting back to normal. Unfortunately that possibly doesn't exist anymore and thinking of people off in the sun enjoying themselves is too much to bare for many.

As for the rest of your reply, I genuinely hope you are right.
Personally I'm more in favour of taking care of the old, vulnerable, HCW's, teachers etc and then opening society back up (with precautions).
The thing about a virus that is endemic is you have to learn to live with it. That's what Frank, Una and many more are doing in the Canary Islands and why I have a strong urge of fair play towards them. I would feel different of course if people could come in and out of the country with testing etc but that is no longer the case.


Edit: Just on the Spanish variant- Just because the tweet you post shows holiday makers in a queue with sombreros doesn't mean it came from people on holidays. It came from an agricultural area of northern Spain, not too many in that queue heading there. Farm works, transport links and even Spanish students could be equally to blame. Not to mention Spain being part of a borderless continent so that variant or any for that matter could come from an essential business traveller heading anywhere within Europe.

gozunda

Tenzor07 wrote: »

True, the 5km restriction makes no sense, won't prevent anything but is a nice bit of window dressing to keep the Lockdowners happy..
Traveled from Dublin to Cork and back during the week, not a bother, but can't go for a hike up the Dublin mountains being outside the 5k.

The 5km restrictions only make no 'sense' when people choose to blithely ignore the essential travel advisory and decide to fek off to Toros del Turpentine for their holidays.

If a journey is essential within Ireland - then its allowed that such journey's take place with the caveat that all other safeguards are observed.

No one wants to be 'lockdowned' and referring to those who observe restrictions as 'lockdowners' is pretty fuking pathetic tbh.

Those who take the pss and wrongly believe they know better than the current health advice need a good kick up the rear end imo.