Storm Jorge : February 29th

Oneiric 3

'Flash Icon' (runs every 3 hours out to 30hrs) forecast wind gusts for tomorrow morning at 9am.




Forecast low position for the same time:

Gaoth Laidir

pad199207 wrote: »

George Lee nailing it all “The Spanish noticed it first”

He probably thinks they named it after him.

Get that man off the tv.

M.T. Cranium

Graces7 wrote: »

Posts as always full of wisdom!

Many thanks to all. Forewarned is good.

Heavy rain on and off all night and deluging now; still more of a slow waltz than a frantic fandango as there is little wind.

Bitterly cold. .

All is permanently battened down out here....

Take care!

We all hope for your safety being that exposed to the Atlantic, one selfish part of us hopes you will ride out the storm and report on its stages, another part says get to the safest place and stay there.

More generally, I had a look at the FMI Hirlam and it's the worst of the lot.

Have to say, a bit of uncertainty remains on the table because this will need to keep developing in the rather complex way that the models have all converged upon, a sort of right turn along 55N in a few more hours while steadily deepening. Any flaw in that scenario could burst the balloon and downgrade this to a lower end orange because right now I can bet you people above our pay scale are talking about red alerts. I sure would be.

Gaoth Laidir

UKMO have it lower and slightly further north, meaning winds will affect more of the country tomorrow. It also sticks around until Monday, so a windy 48-hr period to come. This should be the storm of the winter so far.

leahyl

Are we looking at upgrades to orange for the rest of the country?

Graces7

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

We all hope for your safety being that exposed to the Atlantic, one selfish part of us hopes you will ride out the storm and report on its stages, another part says get to the safest place and stay there.

More generally, I had a look at the FMI Hirlam and it's the worst of the lot.

Have to say, a bit of uncertainty remains on the table because this will need to keep developing in the rather complex way that the models have all converged upon, a sort of right turn along 55N in a few more hours while steadily deepening. Any flaw in that scenario could burst the balloon and downgrade this to a lower end orange because right now I can bet you people above our pay scale are talking about red alerts. I sure would be.

Thank you! As for safe; safe is a matter of choice. This dwelling may be unusual but it has been here I think 15 years and not moved …. So here is safest. We have not had storm damage in my time here.

Orkney was much the same . They called me " stormy petrel" as I would cross etc in any weather.

As long as the dish holds...

"Cry havoc and let loose the hounds of storm!"

M.T. Cranium

leahyl wrote: »

Are we looking at upgrades to orange for the rest of the country?

Not my call but I would say unlikely to go orange anywhere not already orange except possibly Cork, Limerick and Roscommon, and for Cork and Limerick that might be only because some parts could get into that level of gusts, would not expect all of those counties to be in. However, if they were to go red for the west coast, I have the feeling they would perhaps go orange almost everywhere in part to avoid complexity that might not serve any useful purpose?

I would say if the current model trend continues and there is no last-minute downgrade, a red alert is quite likely for at least Mayo, Galway, Clare and Kerry.

As to city of Cork and surroundings, I hope it won't be too bad (maybe some have a different hope) and would say 55-58 kts peak gusts might be about the tops, low 60s along the coast. Shannon might also get to 60-65 in this set-up. Mace Head 80-90, Valentia 70-80 range quite possible. Belmullet always difficult to assess, might briefly see 70s later in the day. Newport a bit of a wild card being influenced by some topography, 67 the over-under there.

Dublin stations still thinking 55-60 and maybe not even that, we'll find out on Saturday. Peak for Dublin might be Saturday night when that secondary impulse tightens the gradient and it becomes more WNW, then you can get stronger gusts into Dublin maybe.

Graces7

I know it is very irreverent but when I saw the pronunciation of HOR HAY?

"I will HOR and I will HAY and I will blow your house down..!!!"

watlantic

The latest OPC (08:40 UTC)chart has Jorge a couple of mbs more intense at 953hPa by 6am on Sat. morning, while the Met Office still maintains it even lower and closer to the NW coast at 949hPa by noon Saturday. Hurricane force gusts (=in excess of 64 kts) to be expected along west coasts and mountains.

eastmayo

Just had met eireann on our local radio...They will be staying with orange warnings but going red for marine on the west coast. Warnings to be updated this morning.

Gaoth Laidir

Not a mention of Jorge in the Spanish Met's latest video forecast this morning. A brief mention of a cold front moving through tomorrow with some light rain and winds to 90 km/h on coasts and 100 on peaks. A bad call on their part naming it.

Latest GFS. No real changes in intensity or track compared to earlier run.

pauldry

Should Saturday be renamed Stormday?

This is the 4th in a row but possibly the worst

Could go

Mace 140kph
Sherkin 137kph
Roches 133kph
Belmullet 129kph
Valentia 127kph
Newport 125kph
Shannon 125kph
Finner 120kph
Malin 120kph

and of course

Casement (the surprise) 108kph

pauldry

This was RossesPt last week. More damage after this.

endainoz

Marine warning has been updated to a red alright. Watch the media manipulate it to make it look worse.

Gaoth Laidir

The German naming system has tomorrow's storm most likely called Diana. The low just ahead of it is Charlotte. Confused?

http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/adopt-a-vortex/tief2020/

Graces7

eastmayo wrote: »

Just had met eireann on our local radio...They will be staying with orange warnings but going red for marine on the west coast. Warnings to be updated this morning.

Just came in and it is wild out there already. Gusty winds . Not surprised when I saw the red marine warnings.

Tomorrow is a nasty one.

Am I reading this right that the rainfall is less than expected but the wind is going to be intense?

endainoz

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Am I reading this right that the rainfall is less than expected but the wind is going to be intense?

Well that depends really on what part of the country your in. The yellow rainfall warning is for Munster Connaught and Donegal. The orange wind warning is only for Western coastal counties and then there is a countrywide yellow wind warning.

Pangea

Evelyn on rte radio just said they will be upping the warning level for the Midlands to Orange for a few hours tomorrow.

Sierra Oscar

Evelyn on Radio One at the moment discussing this, saying warnings are likely to be upgraded shortly for a few hours tomorrow.

Gaoth Laidir

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The German naming system has tomorrow's storm most likely called Diana. The low just ahead of it is Charlotte. Confused?

http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/adopt-a-vortex/tief2020/

Yep. 3 names on the one chart? How many do they go through in a season I wonder?

EDIT: see it in the link. Completely OTT IMO.

6z HIRLAM showing showing mean wind speeds of 100 kmh on the Galway & Clare coasts.

Gaoth Laidir

Deleted User wrote: »

Yep. 3 names on the one chart? How many do they go through in a season I wonder?

EDIT: see it in the link. Completely OTT IMO.

It's a completely different system, however. They don't name only storms, they name ALL lows and highs. It's just a novelty scheme introduced to raise funds for the University. Nothing to do with severe weather.

Little snowy old me

I'll be keeping an eye on forecast. Our mother lives on the coast in SW Donegal. Very exposed spot. We usually bring her up to my place or one of the sisters places during severe winds. But she hates the fuss and always downplays such storms and accuses me of hype and daftness.

This room is unusually quiet so I'm thinking that folks in here aren't convinced that this storm is going to be so bad. I'll keep an eye on it throughout the day and see what Met Eireann are saying this afternoon.

piplip87

Warnings may be updated at 3pm. Evelyn said the Midlands and possibly parts of the east.

leahyl

piplip87 wrote: »

Warnings may be updated at 3pm. Evelyn said the Midlands and possibly parts of the east.

Not the south?

highdef

leahyl wrote: »

Not the south?

Very unlikely based on current track

piplip87

No she didn't mention the south she said parts of the midlands and the East.

redsteveireland

Little snowy old me wrote: »

This room is unusually quiet so I'm thinking that folks in here aren't convinced that this storm is going to be so bad.

Majority possibly still at work and cant skive off on boards all day( including myself as one of said skivers)