Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

goingnowhere

snotboogie wrote: »

3 weekly flights to Heathrow seems low, also I assume Aerlingus are still flying to Amsterdam too.

Only from Dublin

Acosta

There will probably be a couple of days a week with no commercial flights coming into Cork.

Inquitus

0 Covid positives in this Grand Tour, first rest day testing, that's fairly impressive!

Tenger

mikel97 wrote: »

Im very well informed but from official sources not Rte dosh Ie.
.........

Well that trumps me so.
Because I’m only informed by checking the John Hopkins global dashboard and a few media websites.
I’m not sure what figures RTE, I sort of assumed they would also use “official” sources. But I don’t watch any terrestrial TV Or listen to radio much so can’t comment on that.

I also have a niece living and working 8n Stockholm. She keeps us in the loop with her non-lockdown life during out fortnightly family zoom chat. We are usually terribly jealous of her.
(Other family members are in the US, the UK, Asia and Aus)

Captain_Crash wrote: »

But 80% of people who test positive are already asymptomatic.. so what difference would this make?

Globally 80% of cases are classified as “mild”, this means they they do not require medical intervention. It doesn’t mean they are asymptomatic.

And considering that symptoms are required to get a test referral from your GP unless your exposure was prolonged I’m confused. Are all these asymptomatic people paying for private tests?

I’ve been sick for 4 weeks now, the last 10 days have been fine, just a dry cough and a tightness upon my chest. But 2 weeks ago I was having to take naps mid-day. Was using my daughters inhaler and had a constant headache. No temperature though.
Quite a distance from “asymptomatic”

Tenzor07

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I don't know what you're biting at.

If there was money in serving the airports mentioned Ryanair would serve them. They've complained plenty about DAA and how awful they are, yet have managed to fly out of Dublin since day one.As far as I know it's been the EU that couldn't get it's act together in devising a common travel system - the traffic light system isn't even operational yet: 8th Nov. it goes live. And the system will have practically no one flying as the disease levels across the continent are way outside green and orange.Perhaps you could tell us then the kind of screening should airports have available? Inaccurate rapid testing or ineffectual temperature checks? Or PCR tests at €150-200 per passenger?

It means i'll bite for your "Joe Duffy" level of opinion on the matter of Covid/aviation.... :rolleyes:

Tenzor07

United Airlines to offer rapid covid testing on routes between EWR and LHR... Now they need to knock the sawdust out of the heads of those in Government to convince them that a plane full of people who have all tested negative for the virus don't have to then quarantine... This is the sort of thing needed to get Aviation on the path back to recovery...

Captain_Crash

Tenger wrote: »

Globally 80% of cases are classified as “mild”, this means they they do not require medical intervention. It doesn’t mean they are asymptomatic.

And considering that symptoms are required to get a test referral from your GP unless your exposure was prolonged I’m confused. Are all these asymptomatic people paying for private tests?

I’ve been sick for 4 weeks now, the last 10 days have been fine, just a dry cough and a tightness upon my chest. But 2 weeks ago I was having to take naps mid-day. Was using my daughters inhaler and had a constant headache. No temperature though.
Quite a distance from “asymptomatic”

Medically asymptomatic is defined as a lab confirmed case that does not develop symptoms. So literally having it not knowing (medically immune no less) According to the HSE, 80% of our cases are “asymptomatic or mild”. However they don’t clarify the breakdown between the two!

https://hselibrary.ie/what-is-the-rate-of-asymptomatic-carriage-of-covid-19-amongst-both-older-people-65-and-the-general-population/

Only one symptom is required for a test now along with known contacts! In fact if you want a test you can be referred with no symptoms. To use your interpretation that 80% don’t require medical intervention (I’m presuming you mean hospital?) that would leave us with hundreds in hospital per day, yet that’s not the case here.

I’m sorry to hear you had a bad dose of it and I empathise with you, but the reality on the ground is that for the vast majority of people who show any symptoms it’s not much different to a common cold! Anyway, we’re moving off topic, there are issues facing aviation like never before and we all want the same thing.... normality

Van.Bosch

snotboogie wrote: »

Media release yesterday said:

We still expect at this stage to have between 14 and 18 flights per week with KLM and Aer Lingus serving Amsterdam and Heathrow during the period 15th November to 5th December. In addition, we plan, with Government support, to continue to provide services for search and rescue flights, coastguard helicopter, Garda helicopter, Irish Aer Corps, Medical evacuation (medevac) and transplant flights. However our passenger numbers for November this year are likely to be 9,000 versus 172,000 in the same month last year, a decrease of 95%

https://www.corkairport.com/news/detail/2020/10/28/cork-airport-statement-on-ryanair-flight-cancellations

3 weekly flights to Heathrow seems low, also I assume Aerlingus are still flying to Amsterdam too.

Maybe you’re both right, the 14 -18 flights might count both sectors. So 3 pw to LHR would also have 3 pw from LHR.

Tenzor07

Tenzor07 wrote: »

United Airlines to offer rapid covid testing on routes between EWR and LHR... Now they need to knock the sawdust out of the heads of those in Government to convince them that a plane full of people who have all tested negative for the virus don't have to then quarantine... This is the sort of thing needed to get Aviation on the path back to recovery...

You do realise that a test result is either positive or "not detected". The "not detected" is very specific, it means that they have not detected the virus at that time. It still means that you still could become ill within a few days. That is why you still need to quarantine. The HSE have been very specific on this.

Tenzor07

Deleted User wrote: »

You do realise that a test result is either positive or "not detected". The "not detected" is very specific, it means that they have not detected the virus at that time. It still means that you still could become ill within a few days. That is why you still need to quarantine. The HSE have been very specific on this.

It's a step in the right direction, will get travel moving again once Governments agree to either no quarantine or short quarantine/isolation for travelers.. You can't expect to quarantine people without symptoms and a negative test ...

MrMusician18

Tenzor07 wrote: »

It means i'll bite for your "Joe Duffy" level of opinion on the matter of Covid/aviation.... :rolleyes:

Bit rich there coming from yourself, when you talk of "testing negative" when the result is actually "not detected"

In any case we are all around long enough to know that Ryanair is motivated by the bottom line. That's the reason why I'm a shareholder and I long learned to recognise their pr spin machine.

But let's just take the Cork base closure threat, that they said they would close it unless the government changed course. They knew of course that the government was not likely to deviate from it's travel policy and they also knew that forward bookings were low on the Cork routes. By making that threat they were able to offload blame for the closure on government rather than own a hard but pragmatic financial decision. I suspect that even if the government had done a volte-face and caved that they still would've gutted the base quietly. Ryanair aren't in the business of flying empty aircraft when they don't have to.

Tenger

Deleted User wrote: »

You do realise that a test result is either positive or "not detected". The "not detected" is very specific, it means that they have not detected the virus at that time. It still means that you still could become ill within a few days. That is why you still need to quarantine. The HSE have been very specific on this.

Iceland have 2 options for arrivals; 14 day quarantine (outside walks allowed), or,
5-6 day quarantine with a test on arrival and another on day 5.

Tenzor07

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Bit rich there coming from yourself, when you talk of "testing negative" when the result is actually "not detected"
In any case we are all around long enough to know that Ryanair is motivated by the bottom line. That's the reason why I'm a shareholder and I long learned to recognise their pr spin machine.
But let's just take the Cork base closure threat, that they said they would close it unless the government changed course. They knew of course that the government was not likely to deviate from it's travel policy and they also knew that forward bookings were low on the Cork routes. By making that threat they were able to offload blame for the closure on government rather than own a hard but pragmatic financial decision. I suspect that even if the government had done a volte-face and caved that they still would've gutted the base quietly. Ryanair aren't in the business of flying empty aircraft when they don't have to.

Private business not operating as a charity, such a surprise...

The Govt. didn't have a travel policy to begin with, you're wilfully ignoring the whole point of why they had to close bases, i.e. Govt. inaction over the entire summer which could have saved jobs, maintained travel by providing financial supports and testing and by lifting the blanket travel ban...

MrMusician18

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Private business not operating as a charity, such a surprise...

The Govt. didn't have a travel policy to begin with, you're wilfully ignoring the whole point of why they had to close bases, i.e. Govt. inaction over the entire summer which could have saved jobs, maintained travel by providing financial supports and testing and by lifting the blanket travel ban...

The government did have a travel policy. The policy was, and remains to advise against all non-essential travel. No one was banned from flying. The supreme court high Court even said that.

The problem is that the vast majority of international travel is discretionary. The only things that really need to move are goods. This really is the heart of the problem. Can you have this kind of travel during a pandemic? the answer is you can't unless you have long quarantine and testing, which makes the model of travel we are used to unworkable. These are issues that are not just affecting Ireland but are all across Europe. Lufthansa for example, will fly at 25% winter capacity this year, the Irish government can't be blamed for that

In any case, I get the feeling that we are starting to gear up for the release of a vaccine in the west. Once we have that we will start to see things unwind. There is light and hope and I believe we shall all be in the air again shortly.

As I've said, the real question is how business reacts to the return, will it be eager to get back or will it continue to embrace teleconferencing instead. That's where the long term challenge is.

Tenzor07

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The government did have a travel policy. The policy was, and remains to advise against all non-essential travel. No one was banned from flying. The supreme court even said that.

Well that's a load of rubbish, it is/was a travel ban. Either you're being deliberately ignorant/obtuse I don't know.

billy few mates

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Well that's a load of rubbish, it is/was a travel ban. Either you're being deliberately ignorant/obtuse I don't know.

Do you have a link to the details of this travel ban..?

Tenzor07

billy few mates wrote: »

Do you have a link to the details of this travel ban..?

Look it up yourself, while you're at it Google what "De Facto" means..

billy few mates

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Look it up yourself, while you're at it Google what "De Facto" means..

Now who's being deliberately obtuse...?

Credit Checker Moose

There is/was no travel ban. I travelled to Ireland in July/August and no one said a thing to me.

Tenzor07

Credit Checker Moose wrote: »

There is/was no travel ban. I travelled to Ireland in July/August and no one said a thing to me.

Ok, a "De Facto" travel ban is what's in place for Ireland since about April, what that means in Ireland is that there's a requirement to self-isolate for 14 days, there was a brief "Green list" which allowed people to travel without the 14 day quarantine upon their return...however that's long gone..

...So what did the 14 day isolation mean? Well for the many thousands of people employed in the public/civil service it meant they could not travel as it mean for many that either approval wouldn't be given depending on your job role, or it meant that if you took a week off to travel abroad you had to take an additional 14 days leave upon your return, hardly worth losing 14 days holiday for the sake of 5 days actual leave now was it?
....other workers in the private sector from retail to many small companies, many workers found themselves not been given approval to take a holiday abroad.... could they just go and not tell the boss? Well they could, however in the age of social media apps it carried too high a risk of being discovered and caused too much stress for many... for those who were given approval for vacation they were also told to take an additional 14 days holiday upon their return, sometimes unpaid depending on the company... It was also reported in the Irish media that social welfare inspectors were checking passengers at the airport... Was it true? I don't believe so... what happened as result? Well... many 100's of people who through no fault of their own found themselves on the Pandemic unemployment payment were scared into not travelling for fear of losing their payments.... For those on the standard unemployment payments were told they would also lose money for 2 weeks for travelling.. and needed to sign on...

Anymore questions?

Captain_Crash

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The government did have a travel policy. The policy was, and remains to advise against all non-essential travel. No one was banned from flying. The supreme court even said that.

This is all correct, except it was the High Court not the Supreme Court that ruled in the governments favour.

MrMusician18

Captain_Crash wrote: »

This is all correct, except it was the High Court not the Supreme Court that ruled in the governments favour.

Indeed it was. Corrected.

trellheim

There is no law in this country banning travel to or from any other country as the lads above say, we had a court case over that.

the only legal requirement is filling in the locator form if the country you're coming from isnt on the green list, thats the sum of it.

All the rest is advice.

Cookiemunster

trellheim wrote: »

There is no law in this country banning travel to or from any other country as the lads above say, we had a court case over that.

the only legal requirement is filling in the locator form if the country you're coming from isnt on the green list, thats the sum of it.

All the rest is advice.

True, but it took the court case to make the government admit to the above. They were happy enough to let the populace believe the misconception that travel was actually banned until then.

Van.Bosch

trellheim wrote: »

There is no law in this country banning travel to or from any other country as the lads above say, we had a court case over that.

the only legal requirement is filling in the locator form if the country you're coming from isnt on the green list, thats the sum of it.

All the rest is advice.

True but the advice means travel insurance is invalid if you travel.

goingnowhere

trellheim wrote: »

There is no law in this country banning travel to or from any other country as the lads above say, we had a court case over that.

the only legal requirement is filling in the locator form if the country you're coming from isnt on the green list, thats the sum of it.

All the rest is advice.

All passengers regardless of point of origin must fill in the locator form, even if green list

Noxegon

Cookiemunster wrote: »

True, but it took the court case to make the government admit to the above. They were happy enough to let the populace believe the misconception that travel was actually banned until then.

Exactly – and even now that that's been clarified travel remains socially unacceptable. That's not going to change any time soon.

bk

Cookiemunster wrote: »

True, but it took the court case to make the government admit to the above. They were happy enough to let the populace believe the misconception that travel was actually banned until then.

And yet since then, even though every one in the country knows it is just advisory, there has been no rush of people looking to travel, if anything less are travelling.

That tells me that most people simply aren't interested in travelling during a global pandemic, no matter what the government advice is, positive or negative.

The majority of travel is non essential, it is mostly for fun and holidays. Travelling during a global pandemic doesn't sound fun to me, going to another country where everything is closed, no pubs, no restaurants, no museums, no Christmas markets, etc. what are you going to do there? Sit in your hotel?

And then risk catching Covid19 in a foreign country, maybe needing to go to an overcrowded hospital in a foreign country and not having any travel insurance!!

I'm sure some people might risk it and they can, nothing stopping them, but the VAST majority of people aren't going to travel when numbers are increasing all across Europe.

Gael23

snotboogie wrote: »

Where are you getting this?

The thread about vaccines. It will stop you getting sick but it won’t stop you getting the virus

Locker10a

bk wrote: »

And yet since then, even though every one in the country knows it is just advisory, there has been no rush of people looking to travel, if anything less are travelling.

That tells me that most people simply aren't interested in travelling during a global pandemic, no matter what the government advice is, positive or negative.

The majority of travel is non essential, it is mostly for fun and holidays. Travelling during a global pandemic doesn't sound fun to me, going to another country where everything is closed, no pubs, no restaurants, no museums, no Christmas markets, etc. what are you going to do there? Sit in your hotel?

And then risk catching Covid19 in a foreign country, maybe needing to go to an overcrowded hospital in a foreign country and not having any travel insurance!!

I'm sure some people might risk it and they can, nothing stopping them, but the VAST majority of people aren't going to travel when numbers are increasing all across Europe.

This is the crux of the issue