Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Beechwoodspark

Most anyone I know has actively shunned air travel since this whole thing started. And no desire to resume air travel even after a vaccine.

Credit Checker Moose

Good for them.

Beechwoodspark

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Most anyone I know has actively shunned air travel since this whole thing started. And no desire to resume air travel even after a vaccine.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=110970253&postcount=2144
You want to see Aviation here and everywhere destroyed irrespective of whether there is a pandemic or not. Your comments count for zip.

LawBoy2018

Have there been any studies done re the reduction in emissions due to the aviation industry essentially being put into hibernation? Should be interesting.

Inquitus

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=110970253&postcount=2144
You want to see Aviation here and everywhere destroyed irrespective of whether there is a pandemic or not. Your comments count for zip.

I think the major impact that may become apparent, once things hopefully return to normal soon, is whether businesses will travel to the extent they have done in the past, video conferencing has shown itself, due to necessity, to work well and allow businesses to continue to operate at a high level without the requirement of constant face to face meetings. If business travel never returns to pre-covid levels it will make a huge dent in airlines ability to fill business and first class cabins with premium paying fares, and likely also cause a rise in the price of economy fares to compensate. Have any airlines mentioned if they expect business travel revenues to recover to pre-covid levels, or give any indication that this revenue stream could be seriously dented in coming years?

L1011

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=110970253&postcount=2144
You want to see Aviation here and everywhere destroyed irrespective of whether there is a pandemic or not. Your comments count for zip.

Beechwoodspark has been instructed not to bring emissions/flight taxation/flight bans in to threads not specifically on that subject - on the reverse, please don't bring their older posts on that in to said threads either

LawBoy2018

The real question is, what will happen to the regional airports? Without Ryanair they cease to exist.

titan18

Inquitus wrote: »

I think the major impact that may become apparent, once things hopefully return to normal soon, is whether businesses will travel to the extent they have done in the past, video conferencing has shown itself, due to necessity, to work well and allow businesses to continue to operate at a high level without the requirement of constant face to face meetings. If business travel never returns to pre-covid levels it will make a huge dent in airlines ability to fill business and first class cabins with premium paying fares, and likely also cause a rise in the price of economy fares to compensate. Have any airlines mentioned if they expect business travel revenues to recover to pre-covid levels, or give any indication that this revenue stream could be seriously dented in coming years?

Ya, that's going to take a while to come back and I doubt ever does come back to the way it was. Leisure travel will pick up and likely pick up very fast when people have confidence in travelling. Business travel might never be the same

bk

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Most anyone I know has actively shunned air travel since this whole thing started. And no desire to resume air travel even after a vaccine.

I certainly hope not and I rather doubt it.

Purely anecdotal, but I can't wait to get back flying again when it is save to do so. Lots of friends in other countries who I can't wait to see and I'm completely missing a proper relaxing summer holiday in actual sun!

I also feel terrible for all the people in the aviation and related industries, how their lives have been impacted and hopefully it will return to semi normality before too long.

Though I do agree that business travel will be very slow to return to normal and possibly might never be the same again.

LawBoy2018

bk wrote: »

I certainly hope not and I rather doubt it.

Purely anecdotal, but I can't wait to get back flying again when it is save to do so. Lots of friends in other countries who I can't wait to see and I'm completely missing a proper relaxing summer holiday in actual sun!

I also feel terrible for all the people in the aviation and related industries, how their lives have been impacted and hopefully it will return to semi normality before too long.

Though I do agree that business travel will be very slow to return to normal and possibly might never be the same again.

So long as travel expenses are tax deductible, business travel will be a thing. The large companies that previously splashed out on business class tickets for their employees don't care about the cost associated with travel. It'll take a while but things will bounce back.

However, if we lose any more of the 'low fare' airlines, we could see a sharp decline in travel for leisure as the lack of competition will drive up the price of tickets, making holidays more unaffordable for low income families.

MrMusician18

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Most anyone I know has actively shunned air travel since this whole thing started. And no desire to resume air travel even after a vaccine.

Almost everyone I know has avoided air travel since the middle of March, however most people I know miss travelling terribly and are looking forward to flying away as soon as it's safe. Some have even told me they intend to fly away next Summer regardless of the covid situation but one hopes that it will be resolved by then. I think the reality check a lot of us passengers are missing is the question around affordability. Will air fares still be reasonable when supply of seats is constrained, pent up demand for leisure travel is unleashed, and a potential lack of business/premium cross subsidy?

Inquitus wrote: »

I think the major impact that may become apparent, once things hopefully return to normal soon, is whether businesses will travel to the extent they have done in the past, video conferencing has shown itself, due to necessity, to work well and allow businesses to continue to operate at a high level without the requirement of constant face to face meetings. If business travel never returns to pre-covid levels it will make a huge dent in airlines ability to fill business and first class cabins with premium paying fares, and likely also cause a rise in the price of economy fares to compensate. Have any airlines mentioned if they expect business travel revenues to recover to pre-covid levels, or give any indication that this revenue stream could be seriously dented in coming years?

I've mentioned something similar previously. If the premium market doesn't return then many of the flag carriers business model is in trouble. If the pandemic has shown is anything, it's that business travel is largely not required and is an inefficiency.

I've got a number of flights booked and I'll be moving them around to exploit the lifting of lockdown whenever that happens. If I have to get antigen tests the day before flights I'll be doing it. I like many can't wait to get back in to the air to meet friends and family.

Inquitus

Deleted User wrote: »

I've got a number of flights booked and I'll be moving them around to exploit the lifting of lockdown whenever that happens. If I have to get antigen tests the day before flights I'll be doing it. I like many can't wait to get back in to the air to meet friends and family.

A private PCR test costs up to €200, that's a significant additional expense on top of fares, hotels etc. While an individual may be happy to pay for the PCR test, it is a huge barrier to the return of families to the air, for my wife and our 3 kids you are looking at up to €1000 to get all of us tested, that's simply prohibitively expensive for a large percentage of the population to consider, €1000 euro is likely more than the cost of flights to anywhere in Europe, and a huge additional cost for a holiday.

So as I say if it were just me I might well consider paying such an additional expense, as like most of us I enjoy travel, exploring new countries and places etc. But for the large family holiday segment of the market it is likely to put a serious dent in airline revenues as families simply will not pay such a large additional cost for a holiday!

MrMusician18

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

So long as travel expenses are tax deductible, business travel will be a thing. The large companies that previously splashed out on business class tickets for their employees don't care about the cost associated with travel. It'll take a while but things will bounce back.

However, if we lose any more of the 'low fare' airlines, we could see a sharp decline in travel for leisure as the lack of competition will drive up the price of tickets, making holidays more unaffordable for low income families.

The problem for business is not the cost of travel but the loss of efficiency. It was recently believed in many corporates that video conferencing was the poor third relation of face-to-face meetings but the technology is so good now that it is a close second.
I would travel a lot for work (domestically), a meeting in Cork one day, Galway the next. Now we have the meetings on Zoom, all on the one day, leaving the rest of the week for getting stuff done. I can only imagine what business might see now as the amount of valuable executive time waste through travel.

Inquitus

Inquitus wrote: »

A private PCR test costs ....

Moving the goalposts there. Antigen test fine by me for 10 to 20 euro and PCR tests in Germany are lower than your scaremongering claims at 128 to 147 euro. https://www.jumpradio.de/thema/freiwillige-coronatests-wo-machen-kosten-100.html...anyhow the E.U. want to pay for 22 million antigen tests to free up travel in the E.U. https://www.airliners.de/eu-22-millionen-antigen-schnelltests/57925

LawBoy2018

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The problem for business is not the cost of travel but the loss of efficiency. It was recently believed in many corporates that video conferencing was the poor third relation of face-to-face meetings but the technology is so good now that it is a close second.
I would travel a lot for work (domestically), a meeting in Cork one day, Galway the next. Now we have the meetings on Zoom, all on the one day, leaving the rest of the week for getting stuff done. I can only imagine what business might see now as the amount of valuable executive time waste through travel.

I take your point but the main reason why the large corporate firms in Dublin send their executives abroad is for them to make contacts. Travelling domestically isn't really comparable imo. Our whole department is being flown out to Asia next year for a one day seminar. (all going well obv)

Inquitus

Deleted User wrote: »

Moving the goalposts there. Antigen test fine by me for 10 to 20 euro and PCR tests in Germany are lower than your scaremongering claims at 128 to 147 euro. https://www.jumpradio.de/thema/freiwillige-coronatests-wo-machen-kosten-100.html...anyhow the E.U. want to pay for 22 million antigen tests to free up travel in the E.U. https://www.airliners.de/eu-22-millionen-antigen-schnelltests/57925

Only PCR tests are currently accepted for travel (this may change) and the tests generally need to be taken before you leave unless you want to wait for results in your country of arrival while potentially impacted by quarantine rules. Costs of the test in Ireland are more expensive than in Germany, so I am not scaremongering, just highlighting how much they cost here and the fact that in most cases people would need to have one in their departure country within 48 hours of flying rather than waste days in quarantine on arrival waiting for a test result to arrive.

This may change if rapid antigen tests are approved, but they are less accurate, and have not been approved yet! Airlines are obviously keen on them and making plenty of optimistic claims, but approval will be done on medical grounds not on airlines wishes.

As the Irish Government has gone to pains in court of law to claim their directions are only guidance and if Germany allows antigen tests which seems certain then I'm flying to Ireland with my clear antigen test results.

Calina

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The problem for business is not the cost of travel but the loss of efficiency. It was recently believed in many corporates that video conferencing was the poor third relation of face-to-face meetings but the technology is so good now that it is a close second.
I would travel a lot for work (domestically), a meeting in Cork one day, Galway the next. Now we have the meetings on Zoom, all on the one day, leaving the rest of the week for getting stuff done. I can only imagine what business might see now as the amount of valuable executive time waste through travel.

My experience is exactly the opposite to yours. The meetings are not all on one day and there are metric tonnes more of them because informal chats are out the window. I don't see incessant video conferencing as an efficient use of time and most people i know who travelled use the time for disturbance free work. Not sure what you do that enables you to schedule all meetings on one day but it is certainly not viable for everyone.

On the leisure travel front, I have flights booked for Christmas but given the situation where I live, I cannot see myself using them.

MadYaker

Cookiemunster wrote: »

True, but it took the court case to make the government admit to the above. They were happy enough to let the populace believe the misconception that travel was actually banned until then.

Most people aren’t that stupid and understood that travel isn’t banned. People have been travelling for important reasons it’s not as if nobody has flown anywhere in the last few months. People just don’t want to do it during a pandemic unless they have to.

Captain_Crash

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The problem for business is not the cost of travel but the loss of efficiency. It was recently believed in many corporates that video conferencing was the poor third relation of face-to-face meetings but the technology is so good now that it is a close second.
I would travel a lot for work (domestically), a meeting in Cork one day, Galway the next. Now we have the meetings on Zoom, all on the one day, leaving the rest of the week for getting stuff done. I can only imagine what business might see now as the amount of valuable executive time waste through travel.

Before covid my company (large MNC) would have had dozens of not hundreds of execs traveling the globe, and the powers that be have been quite open that they intend this to return fairly quickly once things start moving again. I can’t imagine we’re the only company with this thinking! There is only so much that can be done on a zoom call.

trellheim

Until the light clears re vaccines, testing and insurance I can't see things changing much. I've no wish to be sick in Chicago or Orlando without insurance. I want to be back on the beach in Spain but it has to be right, I love travel but this is bigger than all that.

Noxegon

MadYaker wrote: »

Most people aren’t that stupid

Government advice is not to travel.

Travel insurance is invalid.

Employers requiring those travelling to take unpaid leave.

Travel regarded as the bogeyman in the media.

I guess I'm stupid by your definition.

Cookiemunster

trellheim wrote: »

Until the light clears re vaccines, testing and insurance I can't see things changing much. I've no wish to be sick in Chicago or Orlando without insurance. I want to be back on the beach in Spain but it has to be right, I love travel but this is bigger than all that.

What ever about the US, your EHIC card will cover you right across the EU, no matter what the government say about travel insurance.

Van.Bosch

I don’t think anyone disputes the absolute devastation this virus has caused to the aviation and tourism sectors. What do people think we will see for Irish Aviation throughout 2021?

I think we will see:
-EI will carry about 3-4 non pax in 2021
-TATL will have half the frequencies it had in 2018
- SNN will have one TATL route at most for the summer only.
- the government will delay the traffic light system but will eventually remove the do not travel guidance.
- a new provider will win the EI regional contract.


Any other guesses?

trellheim

What ever about the US, your EHIC card will cover you right across the EU, no matter what the government say about travel insurance

I am well aware of this. However, EU Healthcare is operating with a focus towards COVID all across Europe so your experience may be very different except perhaps for genuine emergencies look at the news ffs.

Most of our neighbours have announced ramped-up quarantine these last two weeks. If you booked and paid in advance, thats money you cant claim back because... no insurance.

As for TATL resuming with the USA in a jocker on COVID I can't see it without decent testing regime which is just plain not there at the moment and a 14-day quarantine, while enabling essential travel, is not a basis for business or tourism travel.

Nermal

Anyone aware of a travel insurance product that DOES offer cover, despite government advice?

goingnowhere

Nermal wrote: »

Anyone aware of a travel insurance product that DOES offer cover, despite government advice?

Large corporates will likely have arrangements for travel required for business continuance.

I'd be more worried about what the Embassy will do if you need help

Dublinflyer

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The problem for business is not the cost of travel but the loss of efficiency. It was recently believed in many corporates that video conferencing was the poor third relation of face-to-face meetings but the technology is so good now that it is a close second.
I would travel a lot for work (domestically), a meeting in Cork one day, Galway the next. Now we have the meetings on Zoom, all on the one day, leaving the rest of the week for getting stuff done. I can only imagine what business might see now as the amount of valuable executive time waste through travel.

Video Conf works well for a very certain set of tasks, project updates, one to one meetings, small weekly team updates and that kind of thing. But I work for a large telecoms provider and we do a lot of software dev work as well where the teams are constantly coming up with new ways of doing things and products. You will never have the same creative conversation on video as you will have in a room.

I manage a team of about 100 people and like a lot of places we have almost been in a holding pattern for the past 7 months but things need to start moving again, we need to start innovating again and need to move the business on. It's been widely accepted in my company that face to face meetings are needed to get people in the same room and coming up with new things. VC has come on a huge amount but the real difference Covid has made is that people are better at using it but you still get a small group of people who are very vocal on the calls and some get left behind as a result, that's just human nature. It's all the little side conversations that happen where ideas really flow, again not possible when people are in their kitchens.

I can only speak for where I work but while travel will not be the same level as before, in fairness it was ridiculous in my company, it has been accepted from the top down that we will be moving about once it's safer to do so whenever that will be. That's not going to be the same in every place but you will find that companies that are freer with the travel restrictions especially for the likes of sales people will be doing a little better.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/02/ryanair-earnings-q2-2020.html
2min25 in to the video clip: Michael O'Leary talking about pent up demand with hard numbers/details of how bookings go up when locations are added to Green List. His example was the Canaries/UK