Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

L1011

General discussion has to go to the general forum. ICU capacity etc is general discussion.

Cards and bans will follow after this warning if it continues, as it is the same posters who cannot grasp this

gral6

So, the big plan for resuming the flights from 8th November turned out to be a ...ucking joke again. Feel devastated...

Doesn't matter for me at this stage...ALL my flights have been cancelled by Ryanair and Aer Lingus. Aer Lingus sent me a number of mails yesterday cancelling all my flights. Connectivity in to the Country is wiped out.
Now that connectivity is wiped out the Authorities can talk all they want about relaxing rules knowing that the airlines can't afford to add flights at short notice which will fly near empty. I may be very willing to fly once restrictions are lifted but I and most people can't just book flights on a whim and need to plan when we travel weeks in advance so we can't fill those planes if they were to fly.

L1011

The system is coming in, but there's only one entire country that's orange currently - Latvia.

That's not a domestic decision but a Europe-wide one.

We've the seventh lowest rates currently and we're still red - its been obvious for weeks that there were going to be very few if any orange or green countries.

goingnowhere

Our colour is the most relevant here, its your origin that really counts. The map gets updated today so we shall see how it changes

So as long as we get to yellow (and we will reach that in about 10-14 days based on progress to date) things start to open up.

We need to get under 150/'000/14 days and 4%, less than 450 cases/day

Dublinflyer

Deleted User wrote: »

Doesn't matter for me at this stage...ALL my flights have been cancelled by Ryanair and Aer Lingus. Aer Lingus sent me a number of mails yesterday cancelling all my flights. Connectivity in to the Country is wiped out.
Now that connectivity is wiped out the Authorities can talk all they want about relaxing rules knowing that the airlines can't afford to add flights at short notice which will fly near empty. I may be very willing to fly once restrictions are lifted but I and most people can't just book flights on a whim and need to plan when we travel weeks in advance so we can't fill those planes if they were to fly.

What were the rough dates for your flights? I am just curious to see how far ahead they are looking?

Dublinflyer

Dublinflyer wrote: »

What were the rough dates for your flights? I am just curious to see how far ahead they are looking?

November through to New Year.
Ryanair have scheduled a skeleton service closer to Xmas but at a very inconvenient 6.30 in the morning.

PommieBast

Deleted User wrote: »

November through to New Year.
Ryanair have scheduled a skeleton service closer to Xmas but at a very inconvenient 6.30 in the morning.

Aer Lingus have doubled-to-tripled LHR-DUB prices in November in the last day or two. This is going to hurt because I simply cannot push back returning to Dublin another month..

Tenzor07

PommieBast wrote: »

Aer Lingus have doubled-to-tripled LHR-DUB prices in November in the last day or two. This is going to hurt because I simply cannot push back returning to Dublin another month..

The impact on the aviation industry is that passengers will now see the results of airlines having to park up aircraft due to lack of demand, cut routes and increase load factors on the flights that actually do take place... all this adds up to less capacity, less choice, higher costs...
...this time next year unless things change drastically then you'll see the end of high frequency low cost flights....it may even end up being cheaper to get the ferry and train/bus to London...

goingnowhere

Ireland is now 5th lowest on the ECDC map at 205.1

Norway+Finland are the only fully yellow countries as of today

Lustrum

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1105/1176250-graduate-airline-pilots/

RTÉ news did a bit about two trainee pilots today, and where pilots in the industry stand

MrMusician18

Tenzor07 wrote: »

The impact on the aviation industry is that passengers will now see the results of airlines having to park up aircraft due to lack of demand, cut routes and increase load factors on the flights that actually do take place... all this adds up to less capacity, less choice, higher costs...
...this time next year unless things change drastically then you'll see the end of high frequency low cost flights....it may even end up being cheaper to get the ferry and train/bus to London...

Its long been cheaper to get the ferry and the train. Sail Rail Dublin to London is €50. It just takes forever and isn't that convenient - lots of waiting around.

If flights are too expensive, the price but not time sensitive will be on the boat.

donkey balls

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Its long been cheaper to get the ferry and the train. Sail Rail Dublin to London is €50. It just takes forever and isn't that convenient - lots of waiting around.

If flights are too expensive, the price but not time sensitive will be on the boat.

3.5 hours on the ferry 6/7 drive down to London not including 45min break for the driver on the way down, Compared 45/60 mins on a flight.

MrMusician18

donkey balls wrote: »

3.5 hours on the ferry 6/7 drive down to London not including 45min break for the driver on the way down, Compared 45/60 mins on a flight.

That's the bus, which costs more than sail rail even though it takes longer. The train leaving liverpool st. at 4pm will have you in Dublin by 6am. It's a long haul alright.

I can't see why anyone would be considering it for Christmas though unless money was very very tight. Aside from the Saturday before Christmas (over £400), the fares from Heathrow to Dublin don't look out of the ordinary - if anything they look a bit low, given the week.

donkey balls

Was talking to my mate the other night he was telling me that he has one days work for the whole of November, Another one of his mates got let go from VS he was on the A340 and was scheduled do the TR on the A350 back in June pre Covid.
The sooner they get a vaccine or have every country singing off the same hymn sheet when it comes to travelling by air the better.
I was reading that GSE manufacturer Mallaghan are letting staff go due to the current situation, There are loads of other companies employing thousands that rely on the aviation industry jobs wise.
But to the normal joe soap /TD/Minister only people working in an airport are affected by the current situation.

Avoation1091

Apologies if its been mentioned previously but with Biden elected now one would hope that the EU-US Travel can be lifted and include testing. Cases really high on both sides so maybe unlikely now but hopefully in the next few months.

Tenger

Avoation1091 wrote: »

Apologies if its been mentioned previously but with Biden elected now one would hope that the EU-US Travel can be lifted and include testing. Cases really high on both sides so maybe unlikely now but hopefully in the next few months.

I would have a similar hope, however there will be no change until he is in office in late January.
This transition will not be as seamless as usual.

Van.Bosch

Avoation1091 wrote: »

Apologies if its been mentioned previously but with Biden elected now one would hope that the EU-US Travel can be lifted and include testing. Cases really high on both sides so maybe unlikely now but hopefully in the next few months.

You think getting a private PCR test will suffice in advance of travel?

Avoation1091

Van.Bosch wrote: »

You think getting a private PCR test will suffice in advance of travel?

If you read my post again I said to include testing. Quartantine would be best as well on the other end. Just my opinion.

Definitly didnt mean just testing!!

trellheim

Biden elected now one would hope that the EU-US Travel can be lifted and include testing

First let me say I hope everyone in the aviation industry gets through this.


However the USA have the highest rates in the world. Only quarantine is proven to work at the moment and that wont' bring flying back in any serious shape until a serious testing regime is in-place backed by travel insurance.

Van.Bosch

Avoation1091 wrote: »

If you read my post again I said to include testing. Quartantine would be best as well on the other end. Just my opinion.

Definitly didnt mean just testing!!

Yeah - I get you. If Q is still required it’s going to limit the return of travel to the US.

LXFlyer

MrMusician18 wrote: »

That's the bus, which costs more than sail rail even though it takes longer. The train leaving liverpool st. at 4pm will have you in Dublin by 6am. It's a long haul alright.

I can't see why anyone would be considering it for Christmas though unless money was very very tight. Aside from the Saturday before Christmas (over £400), the fares from Heathrow to Dublin don't look out of the ordinary - if anything they look a bit low, given the week.

Just to correct this.

The overnight sail/rail really isn't offered anymore, as the connecting trains into/out of the ships have not operated for several years.

Daytime does have proper rail connections and you can leave Dublin Port at 08:20 on Stena Line and be in London Euston for 17:00.

In the reverse direction, you can leave London Euston currently at 08:40 and be in Dublin Port for 17:15.

Sail/Rail to London is priced at EUR 59 each way.

Padraig Mor

Stansted airport terminal closing 5pm to 5am for three weeks beginning Wednesday. Major airport pulling down the shutters at 5 in the evening - wow.

cson

Avoation1091 wrote: »

Apologies if its been mentioned previously but with Biden elected now one would hope that the EU-US Travel can be lifted and include testing. Cases really high on both sides so maybe unlikely now but hopefully in the next few months.

I doubt it'll change under Biden until a vaccine is found. He's going to take COVID more seriously than Trump.

There won't be any material change to transatlantic travel until a vaccine is in widespread use, at best you'd be looking at the second half of 2021 for that but honestly I reckon it'll be the following summer before you see anything like a 'normal' transatlantic schedule.

Hopefully this is recognized by the Government and sufficient supports are given to the industry in that interim period - otherwise ramping up capacity when demand returns in earnest will be quite painful.

smurfjed

Etihad overhauls management as it adapts to being ‘mid-size’ carrier

By David Kaminski-Morrow 8 November 2020

Several senior Etihad Airways personnel, including chief commercial officer Robin Kamark, are stepping down from the Middle Eastern carrier as it undertakes an extensive reshaping to adapt to the changed market situation.

Etihad Airways says it is overhauling its business model to emerge as a “mid-sized” carrier, focusing on a fleet of widebody aircraft, with a “streamlined structure”.

The airline has established a joint-venture operator with budget carrier Air Arabia focusing on regional routes out of Abu Dhabi.

”As a responsible business, we can no longer continue to incrementally adapt to a marketplace that we believe has changed for the foreseeable future,” says Etihad Aviation Group chief Tony Douglas.

Not sure what a mid-sized carrier actually is, I’m also curious if this will be the end of their Dublin service.

feelings

Incredible to see the chinese domestic market fully recovered. More passengers in Sep than the previous year (based on data from Air China, Chine Eastern and China Southern).

snotboogie

feelings wrote: »

Incredible to see the chinese domestic market fully recovered. More passengers in Sep than the previous year (based on data from Air China, Chine Eastern and China Southern).

Zero Covid FTW

trellheim

Zero Covid FTW

necessary draconian 14-day quarantine on international arrivals to enable same. Same for Aus and NZ who now have a shared travel zone.


Any resumption of flights would need to have the same sort of look. To take the closest example ROI and UK's CTA would need to impose similar but if we did it would let ROI-UK get going again , but I can't see the brits or certain parts of our own economy going for it.

IF Europe as a bloc decided to do same you'd need frontex and border force all on the same page ( and we're not part of frontex as not in Schengen ) plus all 28 EU, Norway, and Switzerland , highly unlikely

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54873105

This is good news. No qualifications needed.

Jack1985

IAG shares currently roaring up by 35%, other airline stocks following.