Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Cookiemunster

Blut2 wrote: »

As of November 16th there had only been 25 confirmed cases of reinfection globally. Not 25 thousand, or hundred. 25. Out of almost 60 million cases. Which given recorded cases started exploding 8+ months ago now we can fairly safely say immunity lasts at the very minimum 8 months - and increasing every day.

The immunity will definitely expire at some stage. But my point was more it has been proven to exist, and tens of millions of people now have it. So I'd question how an airline will justify discriminating against them by demanding they get a vaccine they clearly don't need?

People who've had the virus are still expected to social distance, wear masks and even self isolate if they're a close contact of a confirmed case or have traveled from abroad.

It's not really a stretch to see how this will also apply to those people when it comes to vaccinations. As long as nobody knows how long immunity lasts, then everyone will be treated the same (no matter how miniscule the chances of reinfection may be).

snotboogie

Cookiemunster wrote: »

People who've had the virus are still expected to social distance, wear masks and even self isolate if they're a close contact of a confirmed case or have traveled from abroad.

It's not really a stretch to see how this will also apply to those people when it comes to vaccinations. As long as nobody knows how long immunity lasts, then everyone will be treated the same (no matter how miniscule the chances of reinfection may be).

Thats because a lot of those rules would be unenforceable if you made exceptions for people who have already been infected. Once a vaccine is rolled out to the population there is no way people will be still social distancing.

bk

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

but if they are vaccinated how can I infect them ?

Whats the point of them getting the jab then?

Some vaccines can stop you from getting the disease at all and thus passing it on, others work by only helping you get a less serious case of the disease (not ending up in hospital/ICU).

Flu vaccine is an example of the latter case, it is only 30% effective, yet it helps reduce ICU cases of flu by 80%.

We don't know yet which will be the case for the various different Covid19 vaccines. The oxford one shows some evidence that in can actually stop the spread, but more research is needed before they are sure on that.

Blut2 wrote: »

As of November 16th there had only been 25 confirmed cases of reinfection globally. Not 25 thousand, or hundred. 25. Out of almost 60 million cases. Which given recorded cases started exploding 8+ months ago now we can fairly safely say immunity lasts at the very minimum 8 months - and increasing every day.

Those are just the proven cases, it is believed to be far more common then that, it is just difficult to prove it to a scientific standard. The proven cases were where they still had samples from the original test (they usually don't), they then do even more in-depth tests then a regular PCR and finally they can only confirm it if the second case is a mutation that was different from the first result. It is all a pretty high bar to meet.

Given the nature of other corona-viruses it is very likely that natural immunity only lasts a few months and re-infection is likely.

I'm really surprised that folks on an aviation forum are surprised that countries and airlines are going to require vacation to enter!

There are many countries that require vaccines like yellow fever to enter. This is nothing new for the airline industry.

I'm certain most airlines and countries will require Covid19 vaccine to travel and enter, it will be the fastest way to get the airline industry back to normal and they certainly won't care about the feelings of uneducated and insane anti-vaxers.

bk

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Seems odd, but I'm not complaining!

Yeah, it sounds weird, but isn't unusual for this type of vaccine, the Oxford one basically uses a modified harmless adenovirus to help trigger your bodies immune response to the spike protein of SARS-Cov-2. It is likely that people are having a light immune response to the adenovirus, in addition to the spike protein, which then makes the response weaker to the second dose. Basically your body has become immune to the other part of the vaccine.

This isn't unusual at all for these sort of traditional vaccines and it is why part of the trials is to test different doses to see which has the best reaction.

TRANQUILLO

bk wrote: »

Some vaccines can stop you from getting the disease at all and thus passing it on, others work by only helping you get a less serious case of the disease (not ending up in hospital/ICU).

Flu vaccine is an example of the latter case, it is only 30% effective, yet it helps reduce ICU cases of flu by 80%.

We don't know yet which will be the case for the various different Covid19 vaccines. The oxford one shows some evidence that in can actually stop the spread, but more research is needed before they are sure on that.



Those are just the proven cases, it is believed to be far more common then that, it is just difficult to prove it to a scientific standard. The proven cases were where they still had samples from the original test (they usually don't), they then do even more in-depth tests then a regular PCR and finally they can only confirm it if the second case is a mutation that was different from the first result. It is all a pretty high bar to meet.

Given the nature of other corona-viruses it is very likely that natural immunity only lasts a few months and re-infection is likely.

I'm really surprised that folks on an aviation forum are surprised that countries and airlines are going to require vacation to enter!

There are many countries that require vaccines like yellow fever to enter. This is nothing new for the airline industry.

I'm certain most airlines and countries will require Covid19 vaccine to travel and enter, it will be the fastest way to get the airline industry back to normal and they certainly won't care about the feelings of uneducated and insane anti-vaxers.

i don't understand why peoples posts keep resorting to anti vaxxer and insane ad hominems.
For me this is a different situation. There is a sizeable cohort of society to who don't agree with masks, restrictions , lockdowns etc thats before even getting to mandatory vaccines. Ebola etc are dangerous for everyone.

This virus is so "deadly" that many people test positive who didnt even know they had it. Surely there is more nuance to the debate than trotting out tropes like "anti vaxxer".

My mother is 64 and she told me point blank that she is not getting it. She is by no means a conspiracy theorist or has she ever really displayed any strong opinions on anything for that matter. Now you have to take what im saying on trust as im just a faceless name on the internet but i know plenty of people who claim (maybe they will acquiesce) that they will not get the vaccine.

GT89

What the hell have passengers on a plane who are vaccinated to fear of fellow passengers who are not vaccinated. You are vaccinated you are safe and not going to catch covid as you are vaccinated.

TRANQUILLO

Apparently the vaccines haven't been approved for under 18's and under 12's in some cases so there will be plenty of slimy covid spreading youths on the flight which will render the policy inconsistent anyway.

Lockheed

What on earth do any of these posts have to do with COVID and specifically the effect it has on the aviation industry? It seems to have become an echo chamber for people who are against getting the vaccine. Just take your ridiculous unbased opinions to the general COVID discussion forum where you can have a proper debate without hijacking what was quite an interesting thread..

TRANQUILLO

Lockheed wrote: »

What on earth do any of these posts have to do with COVID and specifically the effect it has on the aviation industry? It seems to have become an echo chamber for people who are against getting the vaccine. Just take your ridiculous unbased opinions to the general COVID discussion forum where you can have a proper debate without hijacking what was quite an interesting thread..

Because QANTAS are saying no vaccine, not allowed on board. It's incredibly relevant.

bk

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

Apparently the vaccines haven't been approved for under 18's and under 12's in some cases so there will be plenty of slimy covid spreading youths on the flight which will render the policy inconsistent anyway.

Many (but not all) of the vaccines do include children, including the Oxford one, so it will be a non issue, they can just take the vaccines that have been tested on children.

Also I assume all of the vaccines will eventually be trialled on kids, some vaccines have just gone with more limited trials, so that the trials can go faster. Another example of this is how the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines didn't test if it stopped the virus from spreading, while the Oxford one has looked at this. Just different focus.

Lockheed

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

Because QANTAS are saying no vaccine, not allowed on board. It's incredibly relevant.

So what, does your aging mother work for QANTAS or something?

TRANQUILLO

Lockheed wrote: »

So what, does your aging mother work for QANTAS or something?

No but the poster asserted that only the insane and anti vaxxer would be against it and i was just putting a personal slant on it imply that maybe there was more nuance to the debate.

If people were so fearful of this deadly ailment etc they wouldn't be out having pints on the street and in woodies every weekend.

What im trying to convey is that there is a contrary view to the pro vaccine ideology that isn't driven by conspiracy theories or tin foil hats.

Some people just don't feel this is necessary.

TRANQUILLO

Lockheed wrote: »

So what, does your aging mother work for QANTAS or something?

She works for EI by the way.

Well used to.

Lockheed

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

No but the poster asserted that only the insane and anti vaxxer would be against it and i was just putting a personal slant on it imply that maybe there was more nuance to the debate.

If people were so fearful of this deadly ailment etc they wouldn't be out having pints on the street and in woodies every weekend.

What im trying to convey is that there is a contrary view to the pro vaccine ideology that isn't driven by conspiracy theories or tin foil hats.

Some people just don't feel this is necessary.

Surely being anti vax just means that you won't take a vaccine? It is impossible to make a based and valid opinion against taking a vaccine without reading conspiracy theories and that's where people are coming from. If your mother doesn't want to take a vaccine sure, she can stay at home. Wouldn't like to be on a flight with her, but life goes on

TRANQUILLO

Lockheed wrote: »

Surely being anti vax just means that you won't take a vaccine? It is impossible to make a based and valid opinion against taking a vaccine without reading conspiracy theories and that's where people are coming from. If your mother doesn't want to take a vaccine sure, she can stay at home. Wouldn't like to be on a flight with her, but life goes on

I would have thought its a vehement refusal to take vaccine(s) plural of any kind.

I had MMR vaccine as a kid (no choice), malaria tablets . had a tetanus injection as a kid.


i have no particular inclination to get this vaccine. I think i had the virus in January but thats anecdotal. I work in Aviation borescoping engines so I fear ill be coerced into this based on the amount of travel I have to do .

At the moment im self employed (was laid off from a company in Dublin Airport this year) . I envisage if i get back into a company akin to the one i worked for they will make it very difficult for me to exercise free will in this decision going forward.

Lockheed

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

I would have thought its a vehement refusal to take vaccine(s) plural of any kind.

I had MMR vaccine as a kid (no choice), malaria tablets . had a tetanus injection as a kid.


i have no particular inclination to get this vaccine. I think i had the virus in January but thats anecdotal. I work in Aviation borescoping engines so I fear ill be coerced into this based on the amount of travel I have to do .

At the moment im self employed (was laid off from a company in Dublin Airport this year) . I envisage if i get back into a company akin to the one i worked for they will make it very difficult for me to exercise free will in this decision going forward.

I don't know where you got the idea that I cared about any of this, but I don't. If you travel a lot its your own duty to your fellow person to get yourself vaccinated. Any other stance on this is anti-vaccination. This includes your lack of inclination

TRANQUILLO

Lockheed wrote: »

I don't know where you got the idea that I cared about any of this, but I don't.

Eh , you quoted my post? So I had the courtesy to reply (without being a smart arse i might add).....

Thats how discourse normally goes.

snotboogie

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

i have no particular inclination to get this vaccine. I think i had the virus in January but thats anecdotal. I work in Aviation borescoping engines so I fear ill be coerced into this based on the amount of travel I have to do .

At the moment im self employed (was laid off from a company in Dublin Airport this year) . I envisage if i get back into a company akin to the one i worked for they will make it very difficult for me to exercise free will in this decision going forward.

Hotblack Desiato

I am a naturist. My employer makes it very difficult for me to exercise my free will in relation to the wearing of textiles going forward :pac:

You'll find airlines do that, too!

marno21

Australia currently have very, very strict border controls. Australian citizens aren't finding it easy getting back into the country and have to pay to quarantine.

With that in mind, is it really a surprise that Australia (or just Qantas, their flag carrier) are pondering mandatory vaccination for travellers when they have been following a zero-Covid policy? If you don't like it, no one is making you fly.

HTCOne

The answer is simple. If an airline brings in a vaccine mandate, then if you don't get one, they won't let you on. Likewise if a country mandates the vaccine for entry (as countries have been doing for decades for various vaccines) then you aren't getting in. It is your choice whether to get the vaccine or not after weighing up all factors. If it gets me off this miserable rock and back travelling (and gets aircraft moving again and gets my fellow aviation professionals back to work and me back to full pay) then I'll take what I'm given.

Jack1985

It'll be interesting to watch viewpoints sway, more freedom for the vaccinated and the opposite for those who refuse until this is sufficiently mitigated that it does not pose risk. When their close friends actually enjoy that freedom, you’ll see that swing in some percentage.

It's amazing to read the lack of acknowledgement of why we live longer, today. I'd rather not take medical advice on vaccinations from unqualified individuals or pilots frankly as demonstrated on this thread.

I have had my issues with Government and still do in how we dealt with what would have been safe travel that was scuppered (however small that may have been), I’m not a particular fan of the CMO and his commentary either. However, I’m fully behind our medics and the fantastic scientific achievement to date in relation to vaccines. I’m excited for the future with what mRNA technology can do for some of the most horrific aspects of human death that have affected us all in some way.

Some of the arguments are bat sh*t stuff, and some individuals are so invested in this they will propagate that vaccines are unsafe too. It and can be summarised by;

• Cases rising? Still-low number of deaths.
• Deaths rising? Lower % growth of the number of cases.
• Cases plateaued? Zero growth is the same as zero cases

smurfjed

I’m flying to a country in Africa this afternoon, I’m required to check the Health requirements for entering the country, in this case the list is long with Malaria, Polio, Yellow Fever, Chickenpox (Varicella)
Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis, Flu (influenza), Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR), Hepatitis A and B, and typhoid.

So next year i would just expect this list to include COVID.

TRANQUILLO

smurfjed wrote: »

I’m flying to a country in Africa this afternoon, I’m required to check the Health requirements for entering the country, in this case the list is long with Malaria, Polio, Yellow Fever, Chickenpox (Varicella)
Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis, Flu (influenza), Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR), Hepatitis A and B, and typhoid.

So next year i would just expect this list to include COVID.

Some are afraid of everything on that list more than covid. I think thats some peoples point.

There is a sizeable section of society who think that the juice hasn't been worth the squeeze with this virus. Completely overblown.

donkey balls

smurfjed wrote: »

I’m flying to a country in Africa this afternoon, I’m required to check the Health requirements for entering the country, in this case the list is long with Malaria, Polio, Yellow Fever, Chickenpox (Varicella)
Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis, Flu (influenza), Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR), Hepatitis A and B, and typhoid.

So next year i would just expect this list to include COVID.

Had to do the same when going to the Himalayas back in the 90s get the jabs done and wait another few months for a booster jab, They then gave you a yellow book with all the jabs you received with the dates written in to.the book.
Did it again years later while travelling through South America I would have no problem if it was required post CV19 to have the jab in order to travel.

Blut2

bk wrote: »

Those are just the proven cases, it is believed to be far more common then that, it is just difficult to prove it to a scientific standard. The proven cases were where they still had samples from the original test (they usually don't), they then do even more in-depth tests then a regular PCR and finally they can only confirm it if the second case is a mutation that was different from the first result. It is all a pretty high bar to meet.

Given the nature of other corona-viruses it is very likely that natural immunity only lasts a few months and re-infection is likely.

I'm really surprised that folks on an aviation forum are surprised that countries and airlines are going to require vacation to enter!

There are many countries that require vaccines like yellow fever to enter. This is nothing new for the airline industry.

I'm certain most airlines and countries will require Covid19 vaccine to travel and enter, it will be the fastest way to get the airline industry back to normal and they certainly won't care about the feelings of uneducated and insane anti-vaxers.

What? "just proven cases", "difficult to prove to a scientific standard"? What other standard would you have far reaching policy decisions be made on other than a scientific standard? "Believed" is not remotely acceptable. The scientific evidence on this is very clear - reinfection is extremely, extremely uncommon to date. The maths don't lie - 25 reinfections out of almost 60 million cases to date is not a real concern. Someone is about as likely to be hit by lightning, or win the lottery, as they are to be reinfected with covid19.

Other similar corona virii give an immunity of anywhere from 6 months to 2 years. Which, combined with the fact that covid19 reinfections aren't happening yet, and widespread testing began last March, very clearly points to immunity lasting at the minimum of 8 months. And increasing every day.

Anywhere up to 50% of the population in most of the developed world is currently saying they're not going to get a vaccine. And even the most optimistic vaccine estimates have only approx 30% of the world vaccinated by the end of 2021. Qantas might stick to their guns on this given Australian state policy probably will too, and so much of their traffic is Australia bound. But theres not a hope a US or EU airline will do likewise.

snotboogie

Blut2 wrote: »

What? "just proven cases", "difficult to prove to a scientific standard"? What other standard would you have far reaching policy decisions be made on other than a scientific standard? "Believed" is not remotely acceptable. The scientific evidence on this is very clear - reinfection is extremely, extremely uncommon to date. The maths don't lie - 25 reinfections out of almost 60 million cases to date is not a real concern. Someone is about as likely to be hit by lightning, or win the lottery, as they are to be reinfected with covid19.

Other similar corona virii give an immunity of anywhere from 6 months to 2 years. Which, combined with the fact that covid19 reinfections aren't happening yet, and widespread testing began last March, very clearly points to immunity lasting at the minimum of 8 months. And increasing every day.

Anywhere up to 50% of the population in most of the developed world is currently saying they're not going to get a vaccine. And even the most optimistic vaccine estimates have only approx 30% of the world vaccinated by the end of 2021. Qantas might stick to their guns on this given Australian state policy probably will too, and so much of their traffic is Australia bound. But theres not a hope a US or EU airline will do likewise.

The US will likely be vaccinated to herd immunity by the summer. Very good chance they make the same demands as Australia once they are. Where are you getting the 30% estimate from?

cson

The Government (& indeed the EU) should tie a stimulus to vaccination, say something like €250 for each dose. Dual benefit of encouraging uptake and providing cash to be spent domestically (would perhaps have to condition this to make sure Amazon UK didn't reap the benefit).

We'll see how many anti vaxxers there are then!

Widdensushi

cson wrote: »

The Government (& indeed the EU) should tie a stimulus to vaccination, say something like €250 for each dose. Dual benefit of encouraging uptake and providing cash to be spent domestically (would perhaps have to condition this to make sure Amazon UK didn't reap the benefit).

We'll see how many anti vaxxers there are then!

Take the soup

Blut2

snotboogie wrote: »

The US will likely be vaccinated to herd immunity by the summer. Very good chance they make the same demands as Australia once they are. Where are you getting the 30% estimate from?

The Pfizer/ BioNTech vaccine is aiming for up to 1.3 billion doses by end of 2021 [1]
Oxford/AstraZeneca expect to produce up to 3 billion doses of the vaccine in 2021 [2]
Modern expect to produce up to 1 billion doses in 2021 [3]

Thats a total of 5.3 billion doses, enough for 2.7 billion people - out of our 7.8 billion+ global population. And thats all "up to" best case production scenarios, which are highly unlikely to work out. And that also doesn't include the lag in distribution time from production. If we end up at the end of 2021 with 2 billion people vaccinated that will be doing extremely well.

The US of all places will have probably the biggest popular resistance to any vaccination program. Only 58% of them as of this week currently say they'll get a covid vaccine, presuming they even had the option to. Well short of the number required for herd immunity.


[1] https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine
[2]https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/health-and-human-body/human-diseases/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker-how-they-work-latest-developments-cvd/
[3]https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/18/what-are-the-big-challenges-to-mass-producing-a-coronavirus-vaccine.html