Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

HTCOne

Blut2 wrote: »

The Pfizer/ BioNTech vaccine is aiming for up to 1.3 billion doses by end of 2021 [1]
Oxford/AstraZeneca expect to produce up to 3 billion doses of the vaccine in 2021 [2]
Modern expect to produce up to 1 billion doses in 2021 [3]

Thats a total of 5.3 billion doses, enough for 2.7 billion people - out of our 7.8 billion+ global population. And thats all "up to" best case production scenarios, which are highly unlikely to work out. And that also doesn't include the lag in distribution time from production. If we end up at the end of 2021 with 2 billion people vaccinated that will be doing extremely well.

The US of all places will have probably the biggest popular resistance to any vaccination program. Only 58% of them as of this week currently say they'll get a covid vaccine, presuming they even had the option to. Well short of the number required for herd immunity.


[1] https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine
[2]https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/health-and-human-body/human-diseases/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker-how-they-work-latest-developments-cvd/
[3]https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/18/what-are-the-big-challenges-to-mass-producing-a-coronavirus-vaccine.html

The Russians and Chinese are doing their own vaccines and started vaccinating months ago so you can knock 1.5 billion people off your figures. The Russian vaccine reported 95% efficacy today. You can also take out all children.

We don't even really need to vaccinate everyone, get everyone over 65 or 75, or underlying health conditions, and the healthcare workers and we can relax a very large % of restrictions, if not all. Hopefully that's the shot in the arm (sorry) that the industry needs.

3d4life

Blut2 wrote: »

....The US of all places will have probably the biggest popular resistance to any vaccination program. Only 58% of them as of this week currently say they'll get a covid vaccine, presuming they even had the option to. Well short of the number required for herd immunity.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeTiCMAngus

Summary of issues from around 13:20

Blut2

HTCOne wrote: »

The Russians and Chinese are doing their own vaccines and started vaccinating months ago so you can knock 1.5 billion people off your figures. The Russian vaccine reported 95% efficacy today. You can also take out all children.

We don't even really need to vaccinate everyone, get everyone over 65 or 75, or underlying health conditions, and the healthcare workers and we can relax a very large % of restrictions, if not all. Hopefully that's the shot in the arm (sorry) that the industry needs.

The Russian and Chinese vaccines are still pretty suspect, they haven't published reliable data yet. And children can still spread the virus to others, they just don't tend to get seriously ill themselves.

Either way I wasn't making a point about the viability of the vaccines in terms of fighting the virus though - I was responding to the poster arguing airlines would require vaccination proof of all passengers soon. If only 30% of the world (at best) has been vaccinated in 13 months time, and most of them are older people who don't fly much anyway, it would be a very brave airline to require proof of vaccination before letting passengers board. That would involve ruling out potentially 70%+ of their own customers.

HTCOne

Blut2 wrote: »

The Russian and Chinese vaccines are still pretty suspect, they haven't published reliable data yet. And children can still spread the virus to others, they just don't tend to get seriously ill themselves.

Either way I wasn't making a point about the viability of the vaccines in terms of fighting the virus though - I was responding to the poster arguing airlines would require vaccination proof of all passengers soon. If only 30% of the world (at best) has been vaccinated in 13 months time, and most of them are older people who don't fly much anyway, it would be a very brave airline to require proof of vaccination before letting passengers board. That would involve ruling out potentially 70%+ of their own customers.

I was saying rule out children because there’s a good chance these vaccines won’t work on them such as why the flu vaccine for children (live virus)is totally different to the flu vaccine for adults (dead virus). I doubt most EU countries will mandate vaccination for entry seeing as the vaccines themselves are being sourced by the EU for distribution to member states. Once we get the majority of people who are ending up in hospital with the virus vaccinated, we can hopefully go back to normal in Europe prior to the young, healthy population receiving vaccinations. I would hope the US would take the same, more sensible approach.

Charles Babbage

Blut2 wrote: »

The Russian and Chinese vaccines are still pretty suspect, they haven't published reliable data yet. And children can still spread the virus to others, they just don't tend to get seriously ill themselves.

Either way I wasn't making a point about the viability of the vaccines in terms of fighting the virus though - I was responding to the poster arguing airlines would require vaccination proof of all passengers soon. If only 30% of the world (at best) has been vaccinated in 13 months time, and most of them are older people who don't fly much anyway, it would be a very brave airline to require proof of vaccination before letting passengers board. That would involve ruling out potentially 70%+ of their own customers.

The Russian vaccine probably does work, it is a similar approach to the Oxford one, although the trials are not yet done in an adequate way. I would expect Russian and Chinese vaccines to also go to other non Western countries. And there are other projects, for instance Curevac should be approved early in 2021 and plan to produce 300m doses in 2021 and there are others. I would expect delays early in the year in production of vaccines generally, but enormous resources to ensure widespread production later in the year.



As for airlines, there will be a vaccine requirement internationally, even if only one third of people have been vaccinated that is as more than have a passport.

GT89

HTCOne wrote: »

I was saying rule out children because there’s a good chance these vaccines won’t work on them such as why the flu vaccine for children (live virus)is totally different to the flu vaccine for adults (dead virus). I doubt most EU countries will mandate vaccination for entry seeing as the vaccines themselves are being sourced by the EU for distribution to member states. Once we get the majority of people who are ending up in hospital with the virus vaccinated, we can hopefully go back to normal in Europe prior to the young, healthy population receiving vaccinations. I would hope the US would take the same, more sensible approach.

I hope your right. Personally I would gladly forgo a covid vaccine and stay in Europe.

ProfessorPlum

smurfjed wrote: »

I’m flying to a country in Africa this afternoon, I’m required to check the Health requirements for entering the country, in this case the list is long with Malaria, Polio, Yellow Fever, Chickenpox (Varicella)
Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis, Flu (influenza), Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR), Hepatitis A and B, and typhoid.

So next year i would just expect this list to include COVID.

Required v recommended.
While you may be required to check the list by your employer, and many vaccines may be recommended, there’s only one vaccine on that list that might be required for entry to the country you’re travelling to.
Im not implying that SARS-CoV-2 vaccine won’t become mandatory for many or most countries, but currently mandatory vaccination for travellers is rare, excepting travellers to (or from) some Central African and South American countries (for yellow fever)

Charles Babbage

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

Required v recommended.
While you may be required to check the list by your employer, and many vaccines may be recommended, there’s only one vaccine on that list that might be required for entry to the country you’re travelling to.
Im not implying that SARS-CoV-2 vaccine won’t become mandatory for many or most countries, but currently mandatory vaccination for travellers is rare, excepting travellers to (or from) some Central African and South American countries (for yellow fever)

Vaccine requirements are now less common because diseases are less common. Covid is common.

cson

GT89 wrote: »

I hope your right. Personally I would gladly forgo a covid vaccine and stay in Europe.

You'll be staying in Ireland without one chief, a COVID vaccination passport will be a thing next year imo.

L1011

GT89 wrote: »

I hope your right. Personally I would gladly forgo a covid vaccine and stay in Europe.

Its quite likely that you'll only be able to get to the UK without one, if even.

DubDani

I am pretty certain that a lot of people will have to go private and pay for their covid vaccination to be able to travel again in 2021. That's where some of the big money will be made by those companies.

I have already included 700 Euro in my Holiday Budget for 2021 to account for the need to get our family of 4 privately vaccinated. Our family has no-one that would be at risk or that would otherwise be at the top of the queue for a government issued vaccine, and so I don't mind to pay for it if it means we can get on with our life again.

GT89

L1011 wrote: »

Its quite likely that you'll only be able to get to the UK without one, if even.

Which is a disgrace. Making vaccines mandatory for short haul flights is coercion to get one.

AnRothar

GT89 wrote: »

Which is a disgrace. Making vaccines mandatory for short haul flights is coercion to get one.

There is always the boat.
So you have options.
Therefore it's not coercion.
Not nice maybe but not coercion.

L1011

GT89 wrote: »

Which is a disgrace. Making vaccines mandatory for short haul flights is coercion to get one.

You are not obliged to fly. Anywhere.

Vaccination certs for contagious diseases have been required for travel for decades by many countries.

GT89

L1011 wrote: »

You are not obliged to fly. Anywhere.

Vaccination certs for contagious diseases have been required for travel for decades by many countries.

True people are not obliged to fly however people do need to travel for the purposes of work or visiting family. So basically if Ireland, the EU or airlines implemented a policy of no vaccine no entry then that's basically saying to Irish abroad take the vaccine or never come home again which I think is a form of coercion even if indirect.

I'm talking about EU countries here and there are no countries within the EU that require travellers from other EU member states to be vaccinated. Travelling within the Schegan area is basically the same as domestic travel no need to show passports/national IDs.

There is not much difference between flying from Dublin to Barcelona than there is taking the train from Dublin to Cork other than passport checks.

L1011

If you want to continue arguing about your perverse definition of coercion, take it to the COVID forum or the Conspiracy Theories forum.

Dublinflyer

GT89 wrote: »

True people are not obliged to fly however people do need to travel for the purposes of work or visiting family. So basically if Ireland, the EU or airlines implemented a policy of no vaccine no entry then that's basically saying to Irish abroad take the vaccine or never come home again which I think is a form of coercion even if indirect.

I'm talking about EU countries here and there are no countries within the EU that require travellers from other EU member states to be vaccinated. Travelling within the Schegan area is basically the same as domestic travel no need to show passports/national IDs.

There is not much difference between flying from Dublin to Barcelona than there is taking the train from Dublin to Cork other than passport checks.

I would think it's highly unlikely that it would be a requirement from the airlines short haul flights within the EU, individual countries may have other requirements in this area.

GT89

Dublinflyer wrote: »

I would think it's highly unlikely that it would be a requirement from the airlines short haul flights within the EU, individual countries may have other requirements in this area.

I hope your right

john boye

Blut2 wrote: »

The US of all places will have probably the biggest popular resistance to any vaccination program. Only 58% of them as of this week currently say they'll get a covid vaccine, presuming they even had the option to. Well short of the number required for herd immunity.

Is vaccination likely to be required for internal flights? Domestic flying is absolutely massive over there so it would be interesting to see if the US3 (4 if you include WN) would be willing to give up potentially a lot of business. Conversely, it would be interesting too if a vaccine requirement to fly increased the take-up rate.

Jack1985

White House considering lifting travel restrictions from EU incl non-Schengen (IRL/UK).

Blut2

john boye wrote: »

Is vaccination likely to be required for internal flights? Domestic flying is absolutely massive over there so it would be interesting to see if the US3 (4 if you include WN) would be willing to give up potentially a lot of business. Conversely, it would be interesting too if a vaccine requirement to fly increased the take-up rate.

I would be absolutely shocked if any of the US3 required vaccinations for domestic US travel. So many Americans will refuse to get it, and it will also become a huge political issue. The airlines won't want to step into the middle of that PR nightmare.

On top of the PR issue too its purely anecdotal but I've flown through ATL and a handful of other US airports in the last 2 months and they've all been almost normal level busy in the domestic terminals. All of my US domestic flights had high load factors too. Its a completely different world to TATL or domestic European airports/flights at the moment. So the US airlines won't be under half as much pressure to "get people back flying" by introducing any new measures as EU ones.

Jack1985 wrote: »

White House considering lifting travel restrictions from EU incl non-Schengen (IRL/UK).

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/25/politics/us-travel-restrictions-europe-coronavirus/index.html

Its very positive news. The sooner it happens the better, TATL traffic recovering is badly needed for the airlines.

cson

GT89 wrote: »

True people are not obliged to fly however people do need to travel for the purposes of work or visiting family. So basically if Ireland, the EU or airlines implemented a policy of no vaccine no entry then that's basically saying to Irish abroad take the vaccine or never come home again which I think is a form of coercion even if indirect.

If it's that important to you, or means that much to you, then get the god damn vaccine.

It's unsurprising to me that a poster who typically frequents the Conspiracy Theory forum is in here kicking up dust about his/her perceptions of the vaccine. Ignorance is fine so long as the harm caused is confined to yourself, an unvaccinated imbecile getting on an aircraft becomes a danger to the public.

I'd encourage you to read the science, and in general just educate yourself.

john boye

Blut2 wrote: »

On top of the PR issue too its purely anecdotal but I've flown through ATL and a handful of other US airports in the last 2 months and they've all been almost normal level busy in the domestic terminals. All of my US domestic flights had high load factors too. Its a completely different world to TATL or domestic European airports/flights at the moment. So the US airlines won't be under half as much pressure to "get people back flying" by introducing any new measures as EU ones.

Good point. I've had to go to the states 3 times since the first lockdown and though my own domestic flights were quiet enough, the airports were busy as usual.

MrMusician18

AnRothar wrote: »

There is always the boat.
So you have options.
Therefore it's not coercion.
Not nice maybe but not coercion.

The boat won't be an option either if the regulation is state directed rather than something that the airlines impose themselves. And it will likely be a state regulation.

Limpy

Airlines have been saying flying in is super safe, what has changed?

SNNUS

cson wrote: »

If it's that important to you, or means that much to you, then get the god damn vaccine.

It's unsurprising to me that a poster who typically frequents the Conspiracy Theory forum is in here kicking up dust about his/her perceptions of the vaccine. Ignorance is fine so long as the harm caused is confined to yourself, an unvaccinated imbecile getting on an aircraft becomes a danger to the public.

I'd encourage you to read the science, and in general just educate yourself.

Can we leave the vaccines to the other threads, Aviation forums are a haven away from aggressive covid theoris..

Tenger

john boye wrote: »

Is vaccination likely to be required for internal flights? Domestic flying is absolutely massive over there so it would be interesting to see if the US3 (4 if you include WN) would be willing to give up potentially a lot of business. Conversely, it would be interesting too if a vaccine requirement to fly increased the take-up rate.

I think that liability issues might result in US carriers requiring vaccination before travel.
Or perhaps a waiver of responsibility by the passengers.

AnRothar

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The boat won't be an option either if the regulation is state directed rather than something that the airlines impose themselves. And it will likely be a state regulation.

If it becomes a government regulation for anyone who wishes to travel (regardless of mode) then it's simple.
You wish to travel?
Get the mandated vaccine.

donkey balls

A notification came up on my phone yesterday from Microsoft telling me my flight to the Canaries was departing at 1240, Mad thing is I completely forgot about it as It was cancelled and I got a voucher.
I noticed in work we having being sending trucks to the airport in a while, Normally they get a delivery twice a week.
Whats happening with the likes of Swissport and Sky handling ? Everything I read is about the airlines and nothing about the other FBO.

RocketRaccoon

donkey balls wrote: »

A notification came up on my phone yesterday from Microsoft telling me my flight to the Canaries was departing at 1240, Mad thing is I completely forgot about it as It was cancelled and I got a voucher.
I noticed in work we having being sending trucks to the airport in a while, Normally they get a delivery twice a week.
Whats happening with the likes of Swissport and Sky handling ? Everything I read is about the airlines and nothing about the other FBO.

A lot of people out of work, probably never to return but you won't hear about that as its not aer lingus or Ryanair.