Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Tenger

Caquas wrote: »

I thought the mandatory Passenger Locator Forms were supposed to make international travel safe.

Apparently we have collected a half million of these PLFs but they have been no use to our contact tracers who have only looked a five of these forms - yes, fingers of one hand!

Why is this story not getting attention while we destroy Christmas for those in Britain who wanted to spend the holidays with their family and friends in Ireland?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40192038.html

That is pretty shocking.
However I would argue that Christmas has been ruined by the UK Govt not us. As this uncontrolled increase and higher restrictions are effects of the UK policy.

NOT visiting family and friends in Ireland us the responsible thing to do.

donkey balls

GT89 wrote: »

Hows the ferries being limited to cargo going to be enforced what's to stop a truck driver taking a passenger for a fee

The driver is normally booked on to the ferry by his/her company with all their details name truck reg etc, So at check in at the terminal alarms would go off with an extra pax.
Also the majority of companies do not permit pax to travel in their trucks unless they are staff.

Van.Bosch

The poor airlines were probably thinking “at least at Christmas we’ll have a few busy days, lower frequencies but we’ll get some cash in”. Me with all these cancellations they’ll have to refund a lot - what a brutal impact the pandemic has caused the industry.

Caquas

Tenger wrote: »

That is pretty shocking.
However I would argue that Christmas has been ruined by the UK Govt not us. As this uncontrolled increase and higher restrictions are effects of the UK policy.

NOT visiting family and friends in Ireland us the responsible thing to do.

You're right but throngs of Irish are making the trip on crowded planes, so who cares about Passenger Locator Forms?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/travel-ban-passengers-come-to-ireland-on-multiple-flights-today-1.4443048

Icing on the cake - the Irish government is organising two flights for people stranded in Britain.

Those who do travel from Britain must self-isolate for 14 days, it added. They will also have to fill out a passenger locator form.

Ahhh.....nah.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/two-flights-to-bring-stranded-irish-residents-home-from-uk-1.4442836

L1011

Its for Irish residents stuck over there due to being their for work when the doors clanged shut; not people on their holiers. There won't be any way back provided basically.

Anyone in Britain who intended to spend Christmas with their family here should have been here for over a week already

Blut2

L1011 wrote: »

Its for Irish residents stuck over there due to being their for work when the doors clanged shut; not people on their holiers. There won't be any way back provided basically.

Anyone in Britain who intended to spend Christmas with their family here should have been here for over a week already

In theory yes, but thats not how its been working in reality, at all. The quarantine on arrival in Ireland is entirely self-enforced/'optional'. I know personally plenty of people who've flown in from the US or UK and been out socializing a day later this month - and almost everyone has similar stories.

Even with this ban on flights from London to Dublin the flights are still flying direct to Belfast from London, 90 minutes up the road from Dublin, with no border or controls in-between there and the rest of the country. Anyone who was planning on coming home, whos been put off by the Dublin flights being cancelled, will just do that.

Having a completely open border with NI (and theres no alternative - either logistically, or politically) just makes any flight bans completely ineffective for Ireland.

GT89

bk wrote: »

Seems that the French have thought of that and as a result they are banning all attended cargo to the UK.

That means no trucks on ferries with drivers. Bulk and unattended cargo still possible, but this will cause mayhem for the UK as so much of it is usually attended.

As an aside I don’t think many drivers would risk what you suggest above given recent events with people smuggling.

An another loophole could be to go and rent a van and say you are doing bringing goods back from the UK or vice versa.

bk

GT89 wrote: »

An another loophole could be to go and rent a van and say you are doing bringing goods back from the UK or vice versa.

Errr... you could jump in the Irish Sea too and start swimming!

I don’t think people will be doing either of those.

L1011

GT89 wrote: »

An another loophole could be to go and rent a van and say you are doing bringing goods back from the UK or vice versa.

"What goods? "Errrrmmm..."

Remember you'll have to lie to people who have a right to check what's in your (empty) van.

billy few mates

If people put as much effort into following the public health guidelines as they do in trying to identify and exploit loopholes in them we wouldn't be in this current mess...

Storm 10

billy few mates wrote: »

If people put as much effort into following the public health guidelines as they do in trying to identify and exploit loopholes in them we wouldn't be in this current mess...

Very true in one of the County lockdowns a few months ago that included Kildare where you were banned from leaving the County, I met a group of lads from Kildare who made there way to Galway for the weekend and were all having a great laugh about how they made it to Galway by driving all the side roads to exit the County, wonder how many they infected before going back.

snotboogie

Blut2 wrote: »

In theory yes, but thats not how its been working in reality, at all. The quarantine on arrival in Ireland is entirely self-enforced/'optional'. I know personally plenty of people who've flown in from the US or UK and been out socializing a day later this month - and almost everyone has similar stories.

Even with this ban on flights from London to Dublin the flights are still flying direct to Belfast from London, 90 minutes up the road from Dublin, with no border or controls in-between there and the rest of the country. Anyone who was planning on coming home, whos been put off by the Dublin flights being cancelled, will just do that.

Having a completely open border with NI (and theres no alternative - either logistically, or politically) just makes any flight bans completely ineffective for Ireland.

Just because something isn't perfect doesn't mean that it isn't effective. What percentage of people who had flights booked from the UK to Dublin or Cork are now going to rebook, fly to Belfast and then drive down? Some will do it but it will hugely decrease the numbers arriving from the UK. Therefor it is effective but not perfect.

Blut2

snotboogie wrote: »

Just because something isn't perfect doesn't mean that it isn't effective. What percentage of people who had flights booked from the UK to Dublin or Cork are now going to rebook, fly to Belfast and then drive down? Some will do it but it will hugely decrease the numbers arriving from the UK. Therefor it is effective but not perfect.

The World Health Organization, who probably have a rather better idea about this sort of thing than either of us, disagree entirely with you:

WHO continues to advise against the application of travel or trade restrictions to countries experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks.

In general, evidence shows that restricting the movement of people and goods during public health emergencies is ineffective in most situations and may divert resources from other interventions. Furthermore, restrictions may interrupt needed aid and technical support, may disrupt businesses, and may have negative social and economic effects on the affected countries.

https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/updated-who-recommendations-for-international-traffic-in-relation-to-covid-19-outbreak

mikel97

snotboogie wrote: »

Just because something isn't perfect doesn't mean that it isn't effective. What percentage of people who had flights booked from the UK to Dublin or Cork are now going to rebook, fly to Belfast and then drive down? Some will do it but it will hugely decrease the numbers arriving from the UK. Therefor it is effective but not perfect.

Complete waist of time and any effort. INeffective. No infection rate change probably increase if anything by restricting travel. All in the WHO guidance document on travel. Now Im off to catch a flight to Germany

snotboogie

Blut2 wrote: »

The World Health Organization, who probably have a rather better idea about this sort of thing than either of us, disagree entirely with you:



https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/updated-who-recommendations-for-international-traffic-in-relation-to-covid-19-outbreak

Thats a completely different point, you were arguing it is ineffective because of the option to fly to Belfast. Interestingly, nearly every government in the OECD has imposed travel bans on the UK, so there are clearly health experts at the highest level who disagree with the WHO.

billy few mates

mikel97 wrote: »

Complete waist of time and any effort. INeffective. No infection rate change probably increase if anything by restricting travel. All in the WHO guidance document on travel. Now Im off to catch a flight to Germany

lol....

Blut2

snotboogie wrote: »

Thats a completely different point, you were arguing it is ineffective because of the option to fly to Belfast. Interestingly, nearly every government in the OECD has imposed travel bans on the UK, so there are clearly health experts at the highest level who disagree with the WHO.

Its the same point. Travel bans are proven to be ineffective, because unless they're complete (ie Australia/NZ) then people will just utilize loopholes to travel around them - and then enter a country completely untracked. An effective track and trace system for all arrivals has been proven to be much, much more effective at limiting travel related covid cases than partial travel bans.

Governments imposing travel bans on the UK doesn't provide evidence of health experts disagreeing with the WHO in any shape or form. It provides evidence of politicians pursuing the easiest, best looking, kneejerk option for 'optics'.

GM228

It's worth noting that the current WHO advice is generalised, however they have concluded "only extensive travel restrictions – i.e. over 90% – had any meaningful effect on reducing the magnitude of epidemics" in their actual research.

https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/92/12/14-135590/en/

So the actual conclusions from the WHO is yes travel bans can help, it just depends on the extent of the ban.

GT89

L1011 wrote: »

"What goods? "Errrrmmm..."

Remember you'll have to lie to people who have a right to check what's in your (empty) van.

Will that actually be enforced though?

MadYaker

Blut2 wrote: »

The World Health Organization, who probably have a rather better idea about this sort of thing than either of us, disagree entirely with you:



https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/updated-who-recommendations-for-international-traffic-in-relation-to-covid-19-outbreak

It's not a one rule fits all type situation. Ireland is in an odd position here because we have a land border with another country that we can't close or really place any sort of checks on.

trellheim

Inbounds this week expected to self-isolate for 14 days (source RTE 9pm news).

goingnowhere

First repatriation flight is 25 minutes out

EI4179 LHR to DUB, Aer Lingus 4 digit flight numbers beginning with 4 are charters so this is real deal

Sexual Chocolate

Surprised they didn't send a A330 over.

GM228

goingnowhere wrote: »

First repatriation flight is 25 minutes out

EI4179 LHR to DUB, Aer Lingus 4 digit flight numbers beginning with 4 are charters so this is real deal

Is that not the second one, the first operated earlier by Ryanair?

Jack1985

Sexual Chocolate wrote: »

Surprised they didn't send a A330 over.

DFA just advised FR/EI of required numbers, for example FR had 80 odd pax on the first repatriation flight, that operated from STN. Flat fee I believe was €95 a head.

Blut2

MadYaker wrote: »

It's not a one rule fits all type situation. Ireland is in an odd position here because we have a land border with another country that we can't close or really place any sort of checks on.

But thats the whole problem. The government of NI will never under any circumstances agree to closing its borders to the rest of the UK (as seen by yesterday's vote in Stormont on this exact issue that confirmed just that) thanks to having the DUP in power. Their entire raison d'être is maintaining any and all links to the UK, at any cost.

Its why any talk of closing Ireland's borders this year has been absolute nonsense - it would never do any good, with Belfast open to the world and no controls/checks between it and the rest of Ireland.

Nijmegen

Interesting article - really feels like we’re back in March, except with slightly better contact tracing.

https://twitter.com/irishexaminer/status/1341481162842271750?s=21

AnRothar

And out of curiosity how many flights was there from the UK to Ireland during the relevant period?

Tenger

AnRothar wrote: »

And out of curiosity how many flights was there from the UK to Ireland during the relevant period?

Probably about 15-20 a day.
Multiple daily flights from LHR, LGW and STN. Then at least 1 a day from smaller airports.

LXFlyer

Tenger wrote: »

Probably about 15-20 a day.
Multiple daily flights from LHR, LGW and STN. Then at least 1 a day from smaller airports.

That really depended on the day of the week.

Most days weren’t even close to that Tenger.

On Wed 9th December for example there were 4 flights.

2 LHR, 1 STN and 1 MAN.

On Fri 11 December there were 15 flights.

4 LHR, 1 LGW, 2 MAN, 2 BHX, 2 EDI, 2 STN, 1 GLA, 1 BRS

What’s particularly noticeable is the lack of Aer Lingus Regional flights out of Dublin compared with Belfast City where they are much more frequent.