Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

donkey balls

This time last year I was strolling around ACE having a few beers and food with the missis,We are hoping to travel sometime in the New year hopefully with the roll out of the vaccine the industry will pick up swiftly.
And that people working in the industry return to normal FT hours and the ancillary jobs come back just as quick.

Chris_5339762

Nijmegen wrote: »

Interesting article - really feels like we’re back in March, except with slightly better contact tracing.

I dunno about that... if we take Irish numbers at face value (not underreported, which they likely are), then we have had about 85,000 cases out of a population of 5,000,000.



That is 17/1000 or roughly 20/1000 or 1 in 50.


If every plane was full (unlikely) you'd have ABOUT 100 people on it, so 2 of those are likely to be positive.


I think this is an article out of nothing... given the number of cases out there and the number of people it is likely a decent number of flights WILL have a positive person on them.



I know this is incredibly simplified but you get the gist.

smurfjed

I know this is incredibly simplified but you get the gist.

your 85000 figure happened over 10 months, so it isn’t 1 in 50 at any one time.

Nijmegen

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

I dunno about that... if we take Irish numbers at face value (not underreported, which they likely are), then we have had about 85,000 cases out of a population of 5,000,000.



That is 17/1000 or roughly 20/1000 or 1 in 50.


If every plane was full (unlikely) you'd have ABOUT 100 people on it, so 2 of those are likely to be positive.


I think this is an article out of nothing... given the number of cases out there and the number of people it is likely a decent number of flights WILL have a positive person on them.



I know this is incredibly simplified but you get the gist.

The first case of covid in Ireland probably arrived on an airplane. The new super dose of it probably arrived on an airplane. And the more cases you introduce, the more statistical opportunities for it to spread - doesn’t matter if it spreads on the plane, at home, in a restaurant. The article was just pointing out that recent flights did have cases traced back to them. After covid is over there will be years of studies into what were the really critical factors in driving transmission - was it airplanes, schools, not enough lockdown, too slow, too fast... I’m sure it’ll help us the next time one of these swings around.

Aer Lingus and Ryanair are offering some great prices on flights for the next few months.
Changeable dates and with Ryanair especially so cheap that if your plans fall through it doesn't really matter.

Jack1985

Happy New Year to all, especially Aviation workers on this thread - It has been a horrific year of human carnage and financial suffering on top to many millions. It wasn't all bad though, science has given us all hope for 2021.

Stay Healthy and mind your noggins.

donkey balls

Just regarding the rollout of the Vaccine was talking to a nurse the other day she reckons it be around March before she and her team will get the Vaccine, If that's the case you can expect the normal joe shop to be waiting a while longer.
Hopefully they can up the rate and get EMT/Paramedics involved in the roll out of the vaccine.

Noxegon

Since they're not vaccinating under-18s the eligible population is nudging up against 4 million. If they do ~11K every day they'll be done by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, according to RTE:

"The hope is that the 30,000 people living in nursing homes will be vaccinated by some stage in February, he said."

Unless there's a fairly dramatic increase in pace, the chances of Summer 2021 are extremely limited.

Blut2

donkey balls wrote: »

Just regarding the rollout of the Vaccine was talking to a nurse the other day she reckons it be around March before she and her team will get the Vaccine, If that's the case you can expect the normal joe shop to be waiting a while longer.
Hopefully they can up the rate and get EMT/Paramedics involved in the roll out of the vaccine.

This is Ireland's planned schedule:



Its worth noting Ireland is going to be one of the slowest in Europe, though.

Even if we're still in some form of lockdown come May/June due to that though there isn't a hope places like Spain or Greece will be. Their economic dependence on tourism is so high that they'll be unable to justify keeping things closed when they'll have vaccinated a big chunk of the population by then. So we should see a decent recovery in the aviation sector starting in May/summer21.

bk

The issue at the moment is more of one of production, rather then distribution. So far only one vaccine has been approved for use and they have only so much production capacity and everyone wants it. Pfizer are scrambling to increase production capacity, they are building a new factory and doing deals with other companies to have them produce it too.

Hopefully the Moderna vaccination be will get approval in the next two weeks, that will boost availability. Then we should hopefully have the Oxford one approved shortly after and then others to follow.

It will be slow to get started, but likely to ramp quickly.

Cookiemunster

It also needs to be remembered that we 'only' need to get to somewhere between 70% and 80% take up for the herd immunity to kick in.

100% of the population doesn't need to be vaccinated.

Tenger

I think the vaccination roll out will have varied impact on aviation.
We have already seen Qantas announce “vaccinated only”.
I wonder will other airlines (particularly close to home in Europe) introduce a similar setup or rely on national entry requirements?

My thinking is regarding liability. If an infection can be traced to onboard contact the airline wouldn’t want to be held responsible.
I can see this being a big issue in the US, not sure how it could affect EU/UK airlines.

Van.Bosch

Tenger wrote: »

I think the vaccination roll out will have varied impact on aviation.
We have already seen Qantas announce “vaccinated only”.
I wonder will other airlines (particularly close to home in Europe) introduce a similar setup or rely on national entry requirements?

My thinking is regarding liability. If an infection can be traced to onboard contact the airline wouldn’t want to be held responsible.
I can see this being a big issue in the US, not sure how it could affect EU/UK airlines.

It would be very difficult to prove where you got it though, even if you got contact traced as being a close contact of a fellow passenger.

Blut2

The odds of catching it on a flight are also minuscule. That won't be a worry for airlines.

Catching coronavirus on a flight is less likely than being struck by lighting

Research published by IATA said that between January and July this year, there have been just 44 cases where coronavirus is thought to have been transmitted during a flight. This number includes confirmed, probable and potential cases. At the same time, the industry association said that 1.2 billion passengers have travelled by air, representing a one in 27 million probability of catching Covid-19 on a flight – significantly less than the chances of being struck by lightning, which is around one in 500,000 according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/coronavirus-flight-catch-covid-odds-stats-iata-data-b909398.html

basill

Good luck with trying to find evidence that you caught covid on a flight that will stand up in court.

theguzman

Blut2 wrote: »

The odds of catching it on a flight are also minuscule. That won't be a worry for airlines.



https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/coronavirus-flight-catch-covid-odds-stats-iata-data-b909398.html

I sat next to an unmasked Covid positive passenger for 3 hours unknowingly and luckily did not contract the virus. I attribute it to wearing the KN95 plus blue surgical mask outside than again. I was on my way to the airport when I realised I forgot my faceshield. It is another layer of protection I'll add on my next flight.

donkey balls

theguzman wrote: »

I sat next to an unmasked Covid positive passenger for 3 hours unknowingly and luckily did not contract the virus. I attribute it to wearing the KN95 plus blue surgical mask outside than again. I was on my way to the airport when I realised I forgot my faceshield. It is another layer of protection I'll add on my next flight.

Don't mind asking how did you know the unmasked person was CV19 positive and how come they did not wear a mask?

agoodpunt

I am almost sure I caught it on a recent ryanair flight from spain was masked 90% of the time plane was near full though, I had 3 seats to myself.
was due to return several days later 72hour before fly test turned up positive hope to go out next week after isolation complete and another test lucky have no symptoms.
Now i think previous covid should be allowed same status as vaccinated to travel
Small packed 737s are more virus transmittable than larger ones am more used to travelling on imo

Loved Ryanair's policy if your flying pretest is positive and you dont take the flight which you should not, they will not refund you

Noxegon

agoodpunt wrote: »

Loved Ryanair's policy if your flying pretest is positive and you dont take the flight which you should not, they will not refund you

Why do you feel they should refund you, out of curiosity?

agoodpunt

Qatar and many others do the same, otherwise it might encourage someone to take a chance as i could have
https://qatarairways.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/360011796198-What-if-I-receive-a-positive-test-result-before-my-flight-

IngazZagni

Noxegon wrote: »

Why do you feel they should refund you, out of curiosity?

They have every right not to according to the law. However if someone has spent hundreds on a flight and they can't afford to buy another ticket it increases the chance that a knowingly covid positive person may (selfishly) board the flight. This policy puts Ryanair staff and customers at risk in my opinion.

If they can't (or won't) afford to book another flight, then they can't(or won't) afford to stay in a hotel self-isolating until they are no longer contagious.
Unfortunately that subset of passengers will suit themselves either way and they are the ones putting staff and other passengers at risk, not the airline.

Noxegon

agoodpunt wrote: »

Qatar and many others do the same, otherwise it might encourage someone to take a chance as i could have
https://qatarairways.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/360011796198-What-if-I-receive-a-positive-test-result-before-my-flight-

I'm absolutely agog at the thought that Qatar Airways would have a more customer-friendly policy than Ryanair.

What an amazing world we live in. Next thing someone'll tell me that the Pope is Catholic....

Blut2

Noxegon wrote: »

I'm absolutely agog at the thought that Qatar Airways would have a more customer-friendly policy than Ryanair.

What an amazing world we live in.

Why? The ME3 are full service airlines, known for their good customer service. Ryanair are a LCC known for their bad customer service. So its not really surprising or out of character in any way.

Noxegon

Blut2 wrote: »

Why? The ME3 are full service airlines, known for their good customer service. Ryanair are a LCC known for their bad customer service. So its not really surprising or out of character in any way.

Apologies, looks like I didn't make my sarcasm clear enough.

Tenger

basill wrote: »

Good luck with trying to find evidence that you caught covid on a flight that will stand up in court.

I concur in general. But contact tracing can narrow down the point of contact.
But I was thinking that airlines often settle out of court to make problems go away.

They may adjust T&Cs to require a waiver of liability regarding Covid-19.

Board Walker

Vaccine tomorrow for me! Thrilled, Next month i should be able to travel again. For work of course.

Tenger

Board Walker wrote: »

Vaccine tomorrow for me! Thrilled, Next month i should be able to travel again. For work of course.

Congrats.
Can I ask if you work in healthcare? (2 family members are healthcare in N.I. And received their 1st dose in late December)

This is obviously the 1st dose, what’s the view on your immunity/resistance before you get the 2nd dose?

donkey balls

My mate posted on FB that he got the vaccine there today he works as a Radiographer, He was due to fly home to his home country for his 50th along with a gang from Dublin including myself this April.
Don't think that be happening.or my holiday to the canaries in March, Looking at Primetime the other night the Minister said 1 million to receive the vaccine by June ,Then the list of people that receive the vaccine looks like the ordinary punter down the list myself personally I'm in 2 different categories so what ever one comes first i take.
Lads that cover operations within the facility at the weekend are hoping to go on holidays in July I reckon they be lucky to get away.

L1011

The original rollout schedule was based on 25k/week at this stage based on expected Pfizer deliveries. We're actually getting 42k/week between more deliveries and a change in needle handling to get 6 shots from a vial rather than 5.

Even if Moderna only adds 10k/week to that, we'll be quite ahead of the original rollout quite soon. Local nursing home was scheduled for the 28th and is getting it Monday 11th instead.



However, the later stages of the rollout were planned for much higher doses, which we're still expecting to get; so the acceleration now might only buy a week or two. Still suggests that if I do get in to the batch I expect to I might actually get to do the trip I have scheduled for the end of June - I wait in hope!