Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Kcormahs

goingnowhere wrote: »

The last thing you want is a government loan or them taking equity. Ryanair and Aer Lingus are amongst the best managed European airlines, free of government influence and have addressed legacy cost base issues (yup we are on Ryanair Mk2) so if they can hold on without getting tied down with government deals they will be laughing on the far side as UK, French, German government will try to block management at BA/AF/LH from taking the steps (mass redundancies and government shareholdings don't mix) needed to operate commercially in the new normal while carrying a massive debt.

Bail out the DAA so everyone gets massive discounts on airport changes, parking charges etc. EI and FR are 90%+ of Dublin and Cork business they get the value

From what you said, it seems safer for staff in BA, AF LH etc as they wont face massive redundancies due to state aid, opposite to Ryanair and Aer Lingus that may proceed down that route, as no state aid given so they can do whatever they want

NH2013

Lets not forget Ryanair has gotten state aid off the British government in the form of a loan similar to that which BA and EasyJet have gotten. To the value of £800m IIRC. Aer Lingus seems to be on its own in Europe having not been extended a loan offer.

While I know Aer Lingus was very well run and profitable before COVID, it still seems odd than another airline as well run as Ryanair has been extended a loan offer from a State (and a foreign one at that) but Aer Lingus hasn't here. Even BA was quite profitable as well before and they've been offered a loan, so why does Aer Lingus seem to be the only airline left in europe not to need some sort of state assistance/aid.

I know it was very well run but surely not that well run that it's able to weather a pandemic of this size with no external assistance when every other airline including Ryanair has sought it out?

Kcormahs

NH2013 wrote: »

Lets not forget Ryanair has gotten state aid off the British government in the form of a loan similar to that which BA and EasyJet have gotten. To the value of £800m IIRC. Aer Lingus seems to be on its own in Europe having not been extended a loan offer.

While I know Aer Lingus was very well run and profitable before COVID, it still seems odd than another airline as well run as Ryanair has been extended a loan offer from a State (and a foreign one at that) but Aer Lingus hasn't here. Even BA was quite profitable as well before and they've been offered a loan, so why does Aer Lingus seem to be the only airline left in europe not to need some sort of state assistance/aid.

I know it was very well run but surely not that well run that it's able to weather a pandemic of this size with no external assistance when every other airline including Ryanair has sought it out?

I agree with your statement 100%. Sadly Ireland hasn’t opened any programme of back up loans to assist companies/airlines of this dimension, not like the UK. Neither offered to put in for EU bailouts to Aer Lingus or Ryanair, like Germany France etc did to their airlines

Kcormahs

Kcormahs wrote: »

British Airways got a bigger loan and its part of IAG

the bigger picture is Aer Lingus doesnt have this facility even if needed right now, which is very worrying as things dont seem to be improving. the Irish government support for the aviation as been close to none compared to other European and Uk governments

As way of an analogy giving a massive student loan to someone with a future high earning capability isn't a bad idea, giving it to someone with not so great future earning capability isn't a great idea for either those who give or receive the loan.
Easyjet is no IAG. I'm looking at Easyjet, not Aer Lingus. Maybe you can argue that Aer Lingus has a higher earning capability in the future. Easyjet is looking exceptionally vulnerable at the moment.

LiamaDelta

Kcormahs wrote: »

I agree with your statement 100%. Sadly Ireland hasn’t opened any programme of back up loans to assist companies/airlines of this dimension, not like the UK. Neither offered to put in for EU bailouts to Aer Lingus or Ryanair, like Germany France etc did to their airlines

Aer Lingus have not asked the government for a loan. A government cannot force them to take one. Interesting that Ryanair availed of the money only in the UK...either they were trying to shore up their business outside of the EU or possibly they are treating it differently. Either way they'll do what's best for the business.

paddy19

LiamaDelta wrote: »

Aer Lingus have not asked the government for a loan. A government cannot force them to take one. Interesting that Ryanair availed of the money only in the UK...either they were trying to shore up their business outside of the EU or possibly they are treating it differently. Either way they'll do what's best for the business.[/Q]

The world is a wash with money looking for a home.

Any company with reasonable prospects should have no bother getting a loan at very low interest rates.

I'd guess that Ryanair took the loan for tactical rather than financial reasons.

What an airline wants, like us all, is a straight grant that hasn't to be repaid.

Blut2

bk wrote: »

Keep in mind that the Pfizer vaccine is a double shot vaccine, so they have to keep the second dose in storage for the second shot three weeks later.

So the above 81,000 doses is really to be read as 40,500 people. They have given the first dose to 35,000 of these 40,500 people. Still a bit off, but not as bad as it might first seem.

Thats incorrect. Its not how the system is planned/meant to work. In the ideal/most efficient rollout they'd be using all 81,000 vaccines in week1 as they arrive, and using vaccines delivered in week3 for the second dose.

"Putting aside" doses for the second dose slows the vaccination program down by 3 weeks, because those vaccines sit idle and unused for that entire 3 weeks.

Its not like our vaccine supply is going to be cut off - its only increasing as time goes by. We have a very secure supply. So theres absolutely no logical reason to "put aside" doses.

feelings

US carriers are going to need another cash injection soon. United, Delta, US etc.

Kcormahs wrote: »

Easyjet just got a $1.87bn loan in the UK with government backup support a few weeks after BA (exclusive for BA, not IAG) getting £2bn from the same. Just another one to add to the list with Lufhtansa group, Air France/Klm Alitalia TAP Finnair, all the US3 and so on, when at the same time Aer Lingus won’t be able to access any of these funds/loans as no such scheme exists in Ireland. All these bailouts and facilities will put Aer Lingus in disadvantage against its European/long haul competitors.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0111/1188863-easyjet-funding/

Van.Bosch

Blut2 wrote: »

Thats incorrect. Its not how the system is planned/meant to work. In the ideal/most efficient rollout they'd be using all 81,000 vaccines in week1 as they arrive, and using vaccines delivered in week3 for the second dose.

"Putting aside" doses for the second dose slows the vaccination program down by 3 weeks, because those vaccines sit idle and unused for that entire 3 weeks.

Its not like our vaccine supply is going to be cut off - its only increasing as time goes by. We have a very secure supply. So theres absolutely no logical reason to "put aside" doses.

I think they have tweaked it to have one batch put aside, so not holding back 50% just one delivery. So if there is an unforeseen delay of even a day or two, they have a batch in reserve to ensure people get their second dose.

It will likely never be needed but I think it’s a good idea.

Irish Steve

OK, Can we please move the discussion about vaccine doses and how many are being used or held back to the relevant thread on the Covid forum, it has no relationship to the effects of Covid on the aviation industry

BZ

Covid is having a positive impact on the cargo side of aviation. Today Atlas Air have announced an order for 4 B747-8Fs and DHL are ordering a further 8 B777-200Fs.

Demand for Cargo is strong when you see operators ordering new birds and other operators pulling old ones out of the desert.

PinOnTheRight

Jet2 in the UK have now suspended all their flights and holidays up to 25th March:(

Following on about the cargo discussion, Titan Airways have also just received their first A321 freighter conversion.

trellheim

cabinet just signed off COVID inbound PCR tests required < 72 hours before travel. Its likely the UK would go to this as well.

Given for example Randox in DUB are 1-2 days before results this will require very co-ordinated scheduling to be able to travel !

And at 129 or so a swab for each person travelling that will add for a couple 129x2x2 ( return trip needs testing too unless you do same day , and yes for example UK cost is approx 99 sterling but its close enough )

so it will be ~ 500 euro just for travel tests return for a couple for the foreseeable and needs very very good planning to ensure your 72 hour window is good in both directions.

Blut2

trellheim wrote: »

cabinet just signed off COVID inbound PCR tests required < 72 hours before travel. Its likely the UK would go to this as well.

Given for example Randox in DUB are 1-2 days before results this will require very co-ordinated scheduling to be able to travel !

And at 129 or so a swab for each person travelling that will add for a couple 129x2x2 ( return trip needs testing too unless you do same day , and yes for example UK cost is approx 99 sterling but its close enough )

so it will be ~ 500 euro just for travel tests return for a couple for the foreseeable and needs very very good planning to ensure your 72 hour window is good in both directions.

I'd wonder about the legality of enforcing this on Irish citizens returning from abroad. Can they refuse entry to the country to an Irish passport holder who doesn't have a negative PCR result?

That seems like something bound for a court case...

LuasSimon

Looks like another summer of staycations in Ireland especially for families

Captain_Crash

Blut2 wrote: »

I'd wonder about the legality of enforcing this on Irish citizens returning from abroad. Can they refuse entry to the country to an Irish passport holder who doesn't have a negative PCR result?

That seems like something bound for a court case...

The legislation states it’s an offence to enter the country without a test, so you won’t be stopped entering, but you’ll be committing an offence when doing so! I don’t know what the fines are but knowing this country they’ll be less than the cost of a test.

IngazZagni

Blut2 wrote: »

I'd wonder about the legality of enforcing this on Irish citizens returning from abroad. Can they refuse entry to the country to an Irish passport holder who doesn't have a negative PCR result?

That seems like something bound for a court case...

You won't be refused but you will be fined €2,500 and/or imprisoned for up to 6 months if found to purposely ignore the rules.

theguzman

LuasSimon wrote: »

Looks like another summer of staycations in Ireland especially for families

A summer of stay at home for me before I'd give money to the Irish tourist industry again. I had a week in Spain in November for around €650 all in including flights, car hire for a week, apartment and groceries for breakfast like basics such as milk, coffee and cereal in Lidl. Me and the wife spent almost as much here for 3 nights last year and it poured rain on us for the icing on the cake. Never again.

theguzman

As for the lads questioning legality etc. no test no ticket as far as the airlines are concerned you won't be boarding without a neg test.

Blut2

theguzman wrote: »

As for the lads questioning legality etc. no test no ticket as far as the airlines are concerned you won't be boarding without a neg test.

I would still assume it will be tested in a court case. Someone will show a test to board, but then "lose" the test before arriving at immigration. Just to test the legality of the system.

Something along similar lines was how the government was forced to admit the 14 day quarantine on arrival in Ireland is entirely optional and always has been - they couldn't legally make it mandatory. But this only emerged after a successful legal challenge.

IngazZagni wrote: »

You won't be refused but you will be fined €2,500 and/or imprisoned for up to 6 months if found to purposely ignore the rules.

I'll be very curious to see the exact wording of this. If punishment is reliant upon "If found to purposely ignore the rules" it would leave a lot of wiggle room. What if an Irish citizen claims they're rushing home for a family emergency, so didn't have time to get a test before departure - thats surely not "purposely ignoring the rules" given its an emergency? Or if they couldn't afford to get a covid test in whatever country they were flying from?

From the initial sounds of things it might end up very much like our "5km limit" currently in place. With 22 exemptions which mean you can effectively break it whenever you want, you just need to claim you're visiting a grave, or going to a funeral, etc.

If travelling to Germany from a red country you self-isolate on arrival for 10 days.
You must get a test within 48 hours(approved antigen test acceptable), if you get another test(antigen acceptable again) and result is negative on day 5 self-isolation ends.

HTCOne

BZ wrote: »

Today Atlas Air have announced an order for 4 B747-8Fs

The last 4 747s that will ever be built. The company that manufactured most of the fuselage sections (Triumph) destroyed the tooling / jigs to make the parts after nobody wanted to buy them (including Boeing). This is the 4 airframes Volga Dnepr / Airbridge Cargo defaulted on just prior to COVID and then tried to un-cancel in a court case after the cargo industry started booming. They lost their court case and Boeing sold them to the highest bidder. I think UPS got a 5th frame Volga defaulted on earlier this year.

billy few mates

Blut2 wrote: »

I would still assume it will be tested in a court case. Someone will show a test to board, but then "lose" the test before arriving at immigration. Just to test the legality of the system.

Something along similar lines was how the government was forced to admit the 14 day quarantine on arrival in Ireland is entirely optional and always has been - they couldn't legally make it mandatory. But this only emerged after a successful legal challenge.



I'll be very curious to see the exact wording of this. If punishment is reliant upon "If found to purposely ignore the rules" it would leave a lot of wiggle room. What if an Irish citizen claims they're rushing home for a family emergency, so didn't have time to get a test before departure - thats surely not "purposely ignoring the rules" given its an emergency? Or if they couldn't afford to get a covid test in whatever country they were flying from?

From the initial sounds of things it might end up very much like our "5km limit" currently in place. With 22 exemptions which mean you can effectively break it whenever you want, you just need to claim you're visiting a grave, or going to a funeral, etc.

Or you could just do what's asked of you or do us all a favour and stay the fcuk at home...

titan18

Not that I'm intending to travel ATM, but the tests will make it a pain if still there when it's safer to do so. Getting one in Ireland (outside the cost) won't be too bad but taking time out of your holiday to get tested elsewhere would be a pain.

It definitely makes it cost prohibitive for multiple trips or a family.

donkey balls

BZ wrote: »

Covid is having a positive impact on the cargo side of aviation. Today Atlas Air have announced an order for 4 B747-8Fs and DHL are ordering a further 8 B777-200Fs.

Demand for Cargo is strong when you see operators ordering new birds and other operators pulling old ones out of the desert.

Was talking to 2 of my old work colleagues was asking them how things were ie busy etc, They told me that the company was putting on extra flights 777F &MD11F 767 etc.
I suppose the airfreight sector with the 3 big integrators and other cargo airlines are also taking on freight that would have normally gone in the belly of the pax aircraft.
On a completely unrelated topic if you're holiday was cancelled last year due to CV19 and you rebooked for this year, And it's looking likely that it could be cancelled again.
Will the airline let you rebook?

Credit Checker Moose

I would love to challenge them in court. I think they have not thought this out very well.

PommieBast

Blut2 wrote: »

I would still assume it will be tested in a court case. Someone will show a test to board, but then "lose" the test before arriving at immigration. Just to test the legality of the system.

I'm more interested in more mundane details about what documentation they want. There'll inevitably be someone who'll just print out the email from the lab, and that will kick off a string of court cases..

theguzman

Credit Checker Moose wrote: »

I would love to challenge them in court. I think they have not thought this out very well.

I wouldn't be surprised if Gemma O'Doherty gives it a lash.

Van.Bosch

I wonder how long it will be in place for? In fairness it’s not too different in a lot of EU countries.

Van.Bosch

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I wonder how long it will be in place for? In fairness it’s not too different in a lot of EU countries.

Ahem; https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115899136&postcount=3505
big difference between a 30 euro antigen test you can arrange when you arrive back from holiday and two PCR tests which cost 130 quid or more each.