Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

LuasSimon

Doubt if many family’s will travel abroad this summer if it’s going to cost 200 euro plus each to get tested either side of journey and possible isolation period on top of it

Tenzor07

LuasSimon wrote: »

Doubt if many family’s will travel abroad this summer if it’s going to cost 200 euro plus each to get tested either side of journey and possible isolation period on top of it

My guess is that families who've been cooped up since last March will go on a holiday abroad this year, fed up with holidaying at home etc., but will be just the one holiday due to the additional costs, however those costs could be mitigated by a reduction in accommodation costs abroad...

It will have an effect on weekend city breaks, no ones going to want to add on €130++ or whatever just to take a short break...

Impact will be that routes to Sun destinations like Spain, Greece, Italy will have full aircraft...but to smaller or city destinations aircraft will be 50% at best....

I'm sure Ryanair won't go back to full capacity until well into 2022...

titan18

Ya, it does hurt the shorter breaks a lot. Like going to London on a Friday and back on a Sunday sort of scenario like lots would do would become fairly painful if not impossible. Never mind if you're doing those sort of trips multiple times a year, cost would really add up

basill

Vaccine holidays???

goingnowhere

The Irish position is now the same as most EU countries under 'Red' conditions

If the origin country gets to green status then we are back to freedom of movement like we had from some countries last years

Noxegon

Blut2 wrote: »

From the initial sounds of things it might end up very much like our "5km limit" currently in place. With 22 exemptions which mean you can effectively break it whenever you want, you just need to claim you're visiting a grave, or going to a funeral, etc.

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is precisely why we're in the mess that we're in.

Candamir

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/testing-international-air-travelers.html

From Jan 26th USA require negative PCR or antigen test, OR positive test plus documented recovery - who would have thought the US would end up with some sensible regs.

People who have recently (as in previous few months) recovered from COVID are going to find it difficult to travel to countries like Ireland who are insisting on negative PCR

Tenger

Candamir wrote: »

.............
From Jan 26th USA require negative PCR or antigen test, OR positive test plus documented recovery - who would have thought the US would end up with some sensible regs.

People who have recently (as in previous few months) recovered from COVID are going to find it difficult to travel to countries like Ireland who are insisting on negative PCR

Firstly a combo of recovered from Covid-19 and wanting to travel might not be too common.
Most countries on going this route.

I read an article today saying that Ireland will be getting a supply of Antigen tests. Perhaps once that is in place Antigen tests will be accepted.

In addition once vaccine rollout is more common we will see nations putting in place regulations regarding vaccinated people.

PommieBast

Tenger wrote: »

In addition once vaccine rollout is more common we will see nations putting in place regulations regarding vaccinated people.

Is there any info on whether vaccination would cause a false-positive test?

Candamir

PommieBast wrote: »

Is there any info on whether vaccination would cause a false-positive test?

No. The vaccine causes antibodies to be formed. The PCR detects viral RNA and the Antigen tests detect viral proteins.

Tenger

Keep in mind that having medical clearance to travel has been in place for years.
I remember needing malaria and injections when going to SE Asia about 20 years ago.

The airlines not doubt are in favour of anything to increase bookings and encourage travel. But they will want to ensure the can dodge the blame for any further spread.
If countries put testing rules in place the airlines will be happy to enforce these. It puts the onus upon the passengers to have everything in place or be denied boarding.

Candamir

Tenger wrote: »

Firstly a combo of recovered from Covid-19 and wanting to travel might not be too common.
Most countries on going this route.

I read an article today saying that Ireland will be getting a supply of Antigen tests. Perhaps once that is in place Antigen tests will be accepted.

In addition once vaccine rollout is more common we will see nations putting in place regulations regarding vaccinated people.

People who've recovered from COVID are no different to anyone else - most of them had a mild illness or were asymptomatic. They will want or need to travel about the same as anyone else. As life returns to a bit more like normal, and people start travelling again, these folk will find themselves in a very difficult situation. They might end up having to negotiate exemptions with embassies to travel. Seems a bit of overkill when there's a very simple solution.

Tenger

I think you are getting ahead of yourself.

Travel restrictions are in place in most countries. Thus any travel is restricted.
Focus at the moment is for testing to allow limited travel.
Give it a few weeks and the focus will switch to travelling with a vaccine or a medical exemption if previously infected.

Candamir

Tenger wrote: »

I think you are getting ahead of yourself.

Travel restrictions are in place in most countries. Thus any travel is restricted.
Focus at the moment is for testing to allow limited travel.
Give it a few weeks and the focus will switch to travelling with a vaccine or a medical exemption if previously infected.

Really??
I spoke to a man today who has a home in Spain. He can't go to his own home for the forseeable becasue he had COVID 3 weeks ago. He was asymptomatic and has well finished his isolation period. There is a sensible and easy solution to his situation. He is restricted for no good reason.
I spoke to flight crew who's colleagues were held in trailers under guard in china for over a month (they were still there when I spoke to them) because they continued to test positive by PCR.
Again, a simple, practical and safe solution is available.

Captain_Crash

Tenger wrote: »

Keep in mind that having medical clearance to travel has been in place for years.
I remember needing malaria and injections when going to SE Asia about 20 years ago.

But you get that medical clearance because your destination is riddled with malaria, not because they’re trying to keep it out of the place. I’ve got them myself but I don’t think they’re actually a legal requirement... it’s just the done thing!

One question tho, how will you be able to prove you have a negative test? I haven't got a test myself but I know many who have and all they get is a txt with the result! It’s literally the easiest thing to fake! There is no standard form of result and I can’t see customs spending too much time with each arriving passenger doing a forensic examination

goingnowhere

If you pay for a test you get documentation

State provided testing is there to get a simple not detected or detected outcome it is not for travel purposes

Captain_Crash

goingnowhere wrote: »

If you pay for a test you get documentation

State provided testing is there to get a simple not detected or detected outcome it is not for travel purposes

As your entering the country, the test would be conducted outside the state, so the government here have no input on the methods of communication of any result. And on the topic of state testing, the legislation says only that a PCR test is required which is what the state do, so I can’t imagine it isn’t valid for travel either! I just don’t think it’s been well thought out

PinOnTheRight

Norwegian making big reductions.

https://media.uk.norwegian.com/pressreleases/norwegian-to-focus-on-a-strong-european-network-3064682

Tenzor07

PinOnTheRight wrote: »

Norwegian making big reductions.

https://media.uk.norwegian.com/pressreleases/norwegian-to-focus-on-a-strong-european-network-3064682

Making *More* big reductions more like...

Will be interesting... short haul.. with Ryanair the dominant airline for shorthaul in Europe...
Trying to compete with RA using a bunch of leased NG's.... Just how much longer can they survive now before being completely finished...

basill

Or alternatively....Norwegian plans massive expansion on short haul fleet ie: (6 aircraft with plans to increase to 50 if they survive administration). Damn lies and statistics.

awec

Tenzor07 wrote: »

My guess is that families who've been cooped up since last March will go on a holiday abroad this year, fed up with holidaying at home etc., but will be just the one holiday due to the additional costs, however those costs could be mitigated by a reduction in accommodation costs abroad...

It will have an effect on weekend city breaks, no ones going to want to add on €130++ or whatever just to take a short break...

Impact will be that routes to Sun destinations like Spain, Greece, Italy will have full aircraft...but to smaller or city destinations aircraft will be 50% at best....

I'm sure Ryanair won't go back to full capacity until well into 2022...

I'd be surprised to be honest. Due to a variety of factors we've been unable to holiday abroad since 2017 and are dying to go on one, but definitely won't be going this year because of all this hassle.

The cost of the test is just one aspect. The hassle of having to organise and go for a test while on your holidays is another, and then what happens if one family member ends up with a positive test? Suddenly things get very awkward.

I would think unless we see a dramatic improvement in the situation with people booking last minute deals, summer 2021 is not going to be too dissimilar to summer 2020.

Tenzor07

awec wrote: »

I would think unless we see a dramatic improvement in the situation with people booking last minute deals, summer 2021 is not going to be too dissimilar to summer 2020.

Well, maybe... Issues I see are lack of capacity leading to expensive flights..
Various countries with varying restrictions for entry..PCR.. Antigen...mandatory quarantines on entry... Not to drag this down a political route but I can see the Irish government restrictions on entry to Ireland remaining at current levels well into late summer/Autumn 2021...

Sadly for tourism into Ireland it will remain flat... less flights into Ireland will seal that along with the negative test on arrival...

Possible that other countries will remain more open and Ryanair will move Aircraft out of Ireland and into Europe.

Tenzor07

basill wrote: »

Or alternatively....Norwegian plans massive expansion on short haul fleet ie: (6 aircraft with plans to increase to 50 if they survive administration). Damn lies and statistics.

Best of luck with them, a very weak Airline trying to compete in Europe with Ryanair and Whizz air... I think what's in that article is just PR for the investors/Share holders.

bk

Captain_Crash wrote: »

But you get that medical clearance because your destination is riddled with malaria, not because they’re trying to keep it out of the place. I’ve got them myself but I don’t think they’re actually a legal requirement... it’s just the done thing!

There are many countries who legally require vaccination to enter. There are about a dozen countries that legally require Yellow Fever vaccine for instance.

They ask for your proof of vaccination upon arrival and you will be sent back if you don't have it. So it isn't really anything new in the world of travel.

Noxegon

awec wrote: »

The cost of the test is just one aspect. The hassle of having to organise and go for a test while on your holidays is another, and then what happens if one family member ends up with a positive test? Suddenly things get very awkward.

I was in Germany last summer and one of the hotels I was staying in insisted on a negative COVID test for check-in.

If that is going to become a thing then someone getting a positive result the day before travelling home could conceivably find themselves stranded in a foreign country with nowhere to stay.

I can't imagine many will want to travel in that situation.

flanzer

Tenger wrote: »

I think you are getting ahead of yourself.

Travel restrictions are in place in most countries. Thus any travel is restricted.
Focus at the moment is for testing to allow limited travel.
Give it a few weeks and the focus will switch to travelling with a vaccine or a medical exemption if previously infected.

I agree with this too. As an example, and love or hate Israel, countries might look to them in the near future, with the progress they're making on vaccinations.

Infection rates are down 50% in 2 weeks (this may be down to non-vaccination public health measures too of course). Transmission and infection rates after first shot, seems to drop between 33% and 60%, according to data, with the 2nd shot likely to improve those rates. Although somewhat unproven scientifically yet, the data will continue to come out. It's something that countries will be monitoring no doubt.

The article is here:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-data-shows-50-reduction-in-infections-14-days-after-first-vaccine-shot/

I'd hope by the end of Feb, countries use a different calculation to restart travel. Funnily enough, the talk of vaccine passports has gone quiet

Candamir

Im not against travel restrictions - I think they are necessary. I think that current requirements for a negative PCR test is going to leave people stranded, and nobody seems to have thought it through. It's also unscientific thinking as most positive PCR tests taken from a random well population (eg potential travellers) will be detecting people that have recovered, and not people who are potentially infectious.

Dublinflyer

Candamir wrote: »

Im not against travel restrictions - I think they are necessary. I think that current requirements for a negative PCR test is going to leave people stranded, and nobody seems to have thought it through. It's also unscientific thinking as most positive PCR tests taken from a random well population (eg potential travellers) will be detecting people that have recovered, and not people who are potentially infectious.

So what would happen for example, I get a negative PCR test and travel to the UK for 2 weeks and then on the way back I test positive. Would I be denied entry to my home country? I get that the airlines will probably be checking when you check in but I am sure that people could slip thought and get caught at the destination airport.

LiamaDelta

Dublinflyer wrote: »

So what would happen for example, I get a negative PCR test and travel to the UK for 2 weeks and then on the way back I test positive. Would I be denied entry to my home country? I get that the airlines will probably be checking when you check in but I am sure that people could slip thought and get caught at the destination airport.

If they don't allow boarding without seeing the Covid 'not detected' cert then how can you get caught at the destination airport?

Dublinflyer

LiamaDelta wrote: »

If they don't allow boarding without seeing the Covid 'not detected' cert then how can you get caught at the destination airport?

That's not what I am asking, if someone was to slip though I was wondering what the plan would be. If the airlines or ferries are doing things right then it won't come up but things do slip and mistakes are made, it would be interesting to see what would happen in that case.