Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

trellheim

That's not what I am asking, if someone was to slip though I was wondering what the plan would be.

if you fly with a positive test I am not sure what to tell you that would not get me banned from the forum.

Candamir

trellheim wrote: »

if you fly with a positive test I am not sure what to tell you that would not get me banned from the forum.

I think he means that he is negative departing Ireland and good to fly, but in the 2 weeks while away, he becomes positive - not that much of a stretch!
You will be denied boarding and end up in a diplomatic pickle that i'm not sure if anyone has thought enough about!

Phen2206

trellheim wrote: »

if you fly with a positive test I am not sure what to tell you that would not get me banned from the forum.

Or more simply an Irish citizen who has no PCR cert at all (so not necessarily someone who is a positive case) but who was not denied boarding at origin - will they be denied entry into the country?

LXFlyer

Dublinflyer wrote: »

That's not what I am asking, if someone was to slip though I was wondering what the plan would be. If the airlines or ferries are doing things right then it won't come up but things do slip and mistakes are made, it would be interesting to see what would happen in that case.

Are you talking about someone who has taken a test prior to travelling back to Ireland, received a positive test result, and then travelled regardless, knowing that they had a positive test result?

trellheim

Moving on : "The Netherlands requires visitors from Ireland to pass a PCR test but also a rapid antigen test *directly before departure*. New requirement takes effect from 11pm Irish time tonight.

The same restrictions also apply to arrivals from UK and South Africa"

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1349783412798795776

not cheap !

Noxegon

Whatever about price, antigen tests have a fairly shocking false positive rate:

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/letters-health-care-providers/potential-false-positive-results-antigen-tests-rapid-detection-sars-cov-2-letter-clinical-laboratory

ProfessorPlum

Noxegon wrote: »

Whatever about price, antigen tests have a fairly shocking false positive rate:

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/letters-health-care-providers/potential-false-positive-results-antigen-tests-rapid-detection-sars-cov-2-letter-clinical-laboratory

If you read that data from the CDC, the erroneous results stem from mishandling and improper use of the tests. Independent studies using Roche or Abbott tests (the 2 being bought by the EU Commission) show excellent results when they are used properly! The ECDC include positive rapid antigen test in their case definition of a confirmed case for COVID-19. They wouldn't do that if their specificity was shocking.

donkey balls

Looks like my rebooked holiday from last year has being cancelled, Outbound sector cancled but in bound operating, Don't think I bother trying rebook anything soon.
All I can say is thank f**k I've being working away since the start of the pandemic kinda keeping me sane.

Dublinflyer

LXFlyer wrote: »

Are you talking about someone who has taken a test prior to travelling back to Ireland, received a positive test result, and then travelled regardless, knowing that they had a positive test result?

Yeah exactly, would they just have their name taken and told to isolate when they get home.

ProfessorPlum

Dublinflyer wrote: »

Yeah exactly, would they just have their name taken and told to isolate when they get home.

They would be denied boarding. Self isolation doesn't include sitting on a airplane with others.

Nijmegen

I don't think governments really care about false positive rates. If they keep false positives from moving they can also keep positives out, and at fairly shocking levels of disease growth in recent times I think that's what matters most of all. Pre-swift tests being available their policy tool was straight up travel bans, this opens the door quite a bit more but I reckon if you sat down with the CMOs of most major countries and asked them how they felt about travel today they'd give you a strained look. France is extending the rules around needing antigen tests at boarding also.

I see some Brazilian strain is causing issue and bans now. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jan/15/coronavirus-live-news-hospitals-in-brazilian-state-at-breaking-point-amid-oxygen-shortage-global-deaths-near-2m?page=with:block-600145818f08729f18288694#block-600145818f08729f18288694

trellheim

They would be denied boarding. Self isolation doesn't include sitting on a airplane with others

Comes back to my travel insurance point as well as without it ( and its not really out ) you have to pay all these costs out of your own pocket for the necessary 14-day isolation, feeding and PCR testing on day 12 , plus the new airline ticket ( covid is not EU261 airline's fault you had a positive test )

ProfessorPlum

trellheim wrote: »

Comes back to my travel insurance point as well as without it ( and its not really out ) you have to pay all these costs out of your own pocket for the necessary 14-day isolation, feeding and PCR testing on day 12 , plus the new airline ticket ( covid is not EU261 airline's fault you had a positive test )

Your PCR test will almost definitely still be positive on day 12.

Cookiemunster

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

Your PCR test will almost definitely still be positive on day 12.

Maybe I'm taking you up wrong, but if you have a positive test, you only have to isolate for 10 days. That points to you being very unlikely to still be positive on day 12.

Masala

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

Your PCR test will almost definitely still be positive on day 12.

As matter of interest.,.... if you had a doze of the Covid and are now back up and running .... how long will it be before a test will come back Negative???

Captain_Crash

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Maybe I'm taking you up wrong, but if you have a positive test, you only have to isolate for 10 days. That points to you being very unlikely to still be positive on day 12.

You’ll likely not be positive 12 days after, but the PCR test will almost certainly say you are as it will pick up viral fragments still in your system!

ProfessorPlum

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Maybe I'm taking you up wrong, but if you have a positive test, you only have to isolate for 10 days. That points to you being very unlikely to still be positive on day 12.

Masala wrote: »

As matter of interest.,.... if you had a doze of the Covid and are now back up and running .... how long will it be before a test will come back Negative???

Captain_Crash wrote: »

You’ll likely not be positive 12 days after, but the PCR test will almost certainly say you are as it will pick up viral fragments still in your system!

Yes, after a positive test you are to isolate for 10 days, and for 5 days since you had any fever. At that stage you are deemed likely to no longer being infectious.
So that works.

The problem is when people want to see a negative PCR test. RT-PCR just looks for RNA fragmaents. It doesn't distinguish if they are 'alive' and can be contagious, or if they are 'dead' and not contagious.
PCR find these fragments for weeks or months after a person has recovered and completed their isolation period.
For that reason, the HSE recommend NOT retesting people who have had positive tests, especially within 12 weeks.
So while you may not be contagious after 12 days, you will almost certainly be 'positive'.

bk

I haven't looked too much into the details of this, but a solution might be:

- Either a negative PCR test or
- A positive PCR test that is more then 14 days old, but less then 3 months *

* Just plucking dates out here, whatever time period public health people deem acceptable.

Candamir

bk wrote: »

I haven't looked too much into the details of this, but a solution might be:

- Either a negative PCR test or
- A positive PCR test that is more then 14 days old, but less then 3 months *

* Just plucking dates out here, whatever time period public health people deem acceptable.

That’s pretty much what the US are doing, except they accept either antigen or PCR.

LuasSimon

Talking to a friend who lives in Spain , they seem to be conditioned for no tourists from overseas until August at least possibly not until next year ??

Tenger

LuasSimon wrote: »

Talking to a friend who lives in Spain , they seem to be conditioned for no tourists from overseas until August at least possibly not until next year ??

That’s my thinking too. With the uncertainly over possible vaccination rates, travel cards, PCR vs Antigen test requirements, I can’t see normal leisure travel bookings picking up until mid-summer.
So that basically wipes out half of the season.

Noxegon

We’ll be lucky if it’s only half.

trellheim

As I said up-thread the ECDC green light is the watchword - unless the traffic lights drop back we aint goin anywhere.

Van.Bosch

trellheim wrote: »

As I said up-thread the ECDC green light is the watchword - unless the traffic lights drop back we aint goin anywhere.

I really think the idea of a country getting below 25 per 100,000 is impossible at this stage given where we are.

Cookiemunster

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I really think the idea of a country getting below 25 per 100,000 is impossible at this stage given where we are.

Its January. Summer is a long time off. Many experts believe that Covid acts seasonally like other corona viruses do, so will naturally reduce as we enter the summer. That along with the vaccine roll out could easily see those numbers achieved by the summer.

Tenzor07

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I really think the idea of a country getting below 25 per 100,000 is impossible at this stage given where we are.

Did it last year when no one knew how to treat those who got really sick from the Virus, plus no vaccines available.

This year with better treatments, vaccines and greater social distance etc. the cases will drop below that easily.

Whether those in power remove travel restrictions is another question, and will Ryanair and Aer Lingus still keep capacity out of Ireland at a very low level until Q4.

Nijmegen

Lot of noise from government ruling out a summer of business as anywhere near usual.

https://twitter.com/micheallehane/status/1350191082416562180?s=21

donkey balls

Mgmt at ESY said that if they don't have a good summer in 2021 there is a possibility the employees could be out of work by October.

Noxegon

donkey balls wrote: »

Mgmt at ESY said that if they don't have a good summer in 2021 there is a possibility the employees could be out of work by October.

ESY?

Cookiemunster

Noxegon wrote: »

ESY?

Probably means EasyJet, EZY.