Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Gael23

This is very, very serious for Aviation.
But the enviromentalists will be celebrating

Tenzor07

More and more Airlines are now looking at full groundings for all of their fleet.

This is an unprecedented occurrence and has the potential to create ripples for years to come not just for months.

The basic issue is, where will all these grounded airlines park? There's not enough space to park all of the fleets.
Unless airports shut down any additional runways to use them for parking.

The other issue is how will companies maintain their fleets while they are all parked for anything up to 3 months?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/16/ryanair-cancels-80-per-cent-of-flights-and-does-not-rule-out-full-grounding-coronavirus

Gael23

Tenzor07 wrote: »

More and more Airlines are now looking at full groundings for all of their fleet.

This is an unprecedented occurrence and has the potential to create ripples for years to come not just for months.

The basic issue is, where will all these grounded airlines park? There's not enough space to park all of the fleets.
Unless airports shut down any additional runways to use them for parking.

The other issue is how will companies maintain their fleets while they are all parked for anything up to 3 months?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/16/ryanair-cancels-80-per-cent-of-flights-and-does-not-rule-out-full-grounding-coronavirus

Airports with more than one runway could accommodate that I imagine. On operating and the other for storage

Cosmo Kramer

Tenger wrote: »

Well 25% of operations is severe but its a lot better than a few other European airlines.

At least that will put to bed the idea that the airport is shutting down.

IAG (EI) 75% reduction
FR 80% reduction, possibly rising to 100%

I don't think those announcements put that idea to bed at all, quite the opposite in fact.

fits

Air New Zealand flew over me a short time ago on their LAX to LHR leg. Last time ever?

GM228

Virgin Atlantic grounding 75% of fleet, putting majority of staff on 8 weeks unpaid leave and permanently axing Newark route.

Nibs05

Article suggesting that Cathay Pacific are slowly coming back on line.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesasquith/2020/03/15/qatar-airways-suspends-all-commercial-flights-and-sas-temporarily-lays-of-90-of-staff-but-there-is-hope/#72241abd3ca3

Fireball81

fits wrote: »

Air New Zealand flew over me a short time ago on their LAX to LHR leg. Last time ever?

The route was coming to an end in October and they've suspended it until 30/6 due to the current crisis but yeah it could be pulled early, they just recently sold the slot.

https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2020/03/09/air-new-zealand-sells-heathrow-slot/

billy few mates

Gael23 wrote: »

This is very, very serious for Aviation.
But the enviromentalists will be celebrating

Nobody will be celebrating...

Locker10a

rockonollie wrote: »

Aer Lingus have a new little scam going.......they're offering free changes, but charging an admin fee if you call their contact center or message them.

Also, you have to change your flights before March 25th, which was not published in their initial announcement.

You know what, they’re probably going to have to lay-off a ridiculous amount of their work force to survive so I say let them have their “scam”, people’s livelihoods are literally at stake here. They’re adding an admin fee probably because they’re inundated with calls they can’t handle. THIS IS UNPRECEDENTED. In case you haven’t noticed.
After March 25th the majority of their fleet will probably be parked up and staff layed off

Locker10a

rockonollie wrote: »

I understand it's unprecedented, but putting a deadline on changing flights does not help customers when there is no clue as to when it will be safe/advisable to travel again.

Sure the airlines haven’t a clue when it will be safe/advisable to travel, what do you want them to say!? Nobody knows, it’s changing by the day, by the hour.
Airlines now are concentrating on still actually existing 6 months from now, and continuing to support the connectivity and THOUSANDS of jobs that they support. Boo hoo to the minor disruption people are experiencing now that will be forgotten this time next month.
This time next month there will be employees who, through no fault of their own will be stressed and worried about how and when they can pay their bills and mortgages, and how they can support their families.

Corbally

Looking for some advice here. I need to get to Antigua for work in April. I have a Air Canada flight booked through Toronto April 11th. Canada has now banned non Canadian/US citizens from travel.
If I book London to Antigua for March 24th with Vitgin Atlantic what do you think the chances of me getting to Antigua are?
Is VA likely to go bust? Fo you guys think all outbound traffic from London will be banned? Will I be able to get a flight/ferry from Dubkin to London?
Is there another route I havn't thought of?
All thoughts and opinions welcome.
I am confident my risk of spreading the virus are low. Due to my work situation I have had very little contact with people in the last few weeks. I don't use public transport Havn't been in a pub or busy place for weeks.

Gael23

Corbally wrote: »

Looking for some advice here. I need to get to Antigua for work in April. I have a Air Canada flight booked through Toronto April 11th. Canada has now banned non Canadian/US citizens from travel.
If I book London to Antigua for March 24th with Vitgin Atlantic what do you think the chances of me getting to Antigua are?
Is VA likely to go bust? Fo you guys think all outbound traffic from London will be banned? Will I be able to get a flight/ferry from Dubkin to London?
Is there another route I havn't thought of?
All thoughts and opinions welcome.
I am confident my risk of spreading the virus are low. Due to my work situation I have had very little contact with people in the last few weeks. I don't use public transport Havn't been in a pub or busy place for weeks.

Your not flying anywhere before March 29th

rockonollie

Locker10a wrote: »

Sure the airlines haven’t a clue when it will be safe/advisable to travel, what do you want them to say!? Nobody knows, it’s changing by the day, by the hour.
Airlines now are concentrating on still actually existing 6 months from now, and continuing to support the connectivity and THOUSANDS of jobs that they support. Boo hoo to the minor disruption people are experiencing now that will be forgotten this time next month.
This time next month there will be employees who, through no fault of their own will be stressed and worried about how and when they can pay their bills and mortgages, and how they can support their families.

You're right, I realize my post (which I have removed) is harsh against the airlines and their employees and the situation they're in. I was venting my frustration my lack of options since I am also facing an indefinite amount of time out of work.

Corbally

Gael23 wrote: »

Your not flying anywhere before March 29th

Are flights to UK still flying at the moment(today/tomorrow) or have they already stopped?

Does anyone know what the definition of essention/non essential travel is?

easypazz

Corbally wrote: »

Looking for some advice here. I need to get to Antigua for work in April. I have a Air Canada flight booked through Toronto April 11th. Canada has now banned non Canadian/US citizens from travel.
If I book London to Antigua for March 24th with Vitgin Atlantic what do you think the chances of me getting to Antigua are?
Is VA likely to go bust? Fo you guys think all outbound traffic from London will be banned? Will I be able to get a flight/ferry from Dubkin to London?
Is there another route I havn't thought of?
All thoughts and opinions welcome.
I am confident my risk of spreading the virus are low. Due to my work situation I have had very little contact with people in the last few weeks. I don't use public transport Havn't been in a pub or busy place for weeks.

Is your work critical to keep the global supply chain of basic commodities moving?

If not stay in your community and stop risking lives.

Locker10a

Corbally wrote: »

Are flights to UK still flying at the moment(today/tomorrow) or have they already stopped?

Does anyone know what the definition of essention/non essential travel is?

The government have officially advised against travel to the UK.
I mean do you really need a definition of “essential” from a poster here!?

easypazz

Locker10a wrote: »

The government have officially advised against travel to the UK.
I mean do you really need a definition of “essential” from a poster here!?

Agreed, if you are part of a team to develop a vaccine etc. then people will help.

Otherwise stop looking like a selfish tool.

The Witches Cat

Ok Folks
We are booked to fly with Emirates on May 14th from Dublin to Dubai and connecting flight Dubai to Cebu, Philippines
What you reckon our chances are???
Thanks

Locker10a

The Witches Cat wrote: »

Ok Folks
We are booked to fly with Emirates on May 14th from Dublin to Dubai and connecting flight Dubai to Cebu, Philippines
What you reckon our chances are???
Thanks

Short of a crystal ball, you’ll have to wait and see what advice is closer to the time

easypazz

The Witches Cat wrote: »

Ok Folks
We are booked to fly with Emirates on May 14th from Dublin to Dubai and connecting flight Dubai to Cebu, Philippines
What you reckon our chances are???
Thanks

What do you think yourself, honestly?

L1011

You'll have a much better idea in two weeks; anything now is guesswork.

Corbally

All the forum users here that work in Dublin city put more people at risk by going to work today than I will by flying to Antigua. I am not going to cure corona virus so maybe my travel isn't essential but if I can't do my job it will have a huge knock on effect. I'm not going to get into why I think it's important I can get to Antigua.

If you are refusing to go into work for the next two months then well done. If you are doing it to protect yourself, family or the community I salute you.

If you went to work today or are going to work at all this week or next and you work with other people or use public transport then you are not really in a position to criticize me.

Does essential travel mean only people that are curing this virus should travelor where do we draw the line? Is there an actual definition anywhere?
I don't want this to descend into a corona virus argument. There is enough of them already.

I don't know any more than the average person about the aviation industry, hence my post looking for advice. Flights are still available to buy so I am asking will people still be flying this time next week?

easypazz

Corbally wrote: »

All the forum users here that work in Dublin city put more people at risk by going to work today than I will by flying to Antigua. I am not going to cure corona virus so maybe my travel isn't essential but if I can't do my job it will have a huge knock on effect. I'm not going to get into why I think it's important I can get to Antigua.

If you are refusing to go into work for the next two months then well done. If you are doing it to protect yourself, family or the community I salute you.

If you went to work today or are going to work at all this week or next and you work with other people or use public transport then you are not really in a position to criticize me.

Does essential travel mean only people that are curing this virus should travelor where do we draw the line? Is there an actual definition anywhere?
I don't want this to descend into a corona virus argument. There is enough of them already.

I don't know any more than the average person about the aviation industry, hence my post looking for advice. Flights are still available to buy so I am asking will people still be flying this time next week?

Bottom line is you might get there, and if you get there, you might get stuck there, or somewhere along the way.

Any reasonable company at the moment has a travel ban as a duty of care over their employees.

Tenger

As has already been posted here, this situation is wholly unprecedented.
Airlines have no idea what the political/economic situation will be in 3-4 weeks. Most are hoping to still be operating in May/June.
Maybe the US will re-open after the 30 days, maybe they won’t. The travel bans might even get worst than currently. IF the current situation doesn’t change by this weekend then European airlines will have a plan that they can communicate to their customers.

But this pandemic is still in the early stages, we are only on wave 2,
The America’s is behind Europe, which is behind Asia.
Thus expect to see many more travel bans from nations around the world.
EG. Canada announced a travel ban today, as did Qatar.


So asking for travel advice here WILL NOT give you a reliable answer.
The posters here who work in the sector have no idea. They can make an educated guess but all it takes is a decision by the UK/EU/UAE/US etc, authorities to completely alter the situation overnight

easypazz

Also in Beijing arrivals from abroad go into 14 days quarintine.

So if ireland get out of this all arrivals on the island may have 14 day quarantine.

Ferries may become cargo only. Driver loads on a trailer and drives out again so only trailers go across, with 10 or whatever crew.

So anybody with notions of flying, forget it.

Icepick

Do you want to be stuck on a small 3rd world island during a pandemic?

Coil Kilcrea

Icepick wrote: »

Do you want to be stuck on a small 3rd world island during a pandemic?

That's the nail on the head.

Corbally

Tenger wrote: »

As has already been posted here, this situation is wholly unprecedented.
Airlines have no idea what the political/economic situation will be in 3-4 weeks. Most are hoping to still be operating in May/June.
Maybe the US will re-open after the 30 days, maybe they won’t. The travel bans might even get worst than currently. IF the current situation doesn’t change by this weekend then European airlines will have a plan that they can communicate to their customers.

But this pandemic is still in the early stages, we are only on wave 2,
The America’s is behind Europe, which is behind Asia.
Thus expect to see many more travel bans from nations around the world.
EG. Canada announced a travel ban today, as did Qatar.


So asking for travel advice here WILL NOT give you a reliable answer.
The posters here who work in the sector have no idea. They can make an educated guess but all it takes is a decision by the UK/EU/UAE/US etc, authorities to completely alter the situation overnight

Thanks Tenger. I was looking for an educated guess.
I havn't been following travel bans or corona threads closely so flights continuing to and from Spain until Thursday and other routes being closed until the end of March plus vague announcements from the EU left me a bit confused.

I am very healthy so not worried for myself. I think whilst travelling with caution my chances of spreading the virus is less than all the people that will be queing outside tesco for beer and toilet roll Wednesday morning. If planes are flying next week with passenger who have shown their travel is essential to them or their business and have taken precautions I will be on one of them.

I'm just looking for some clarity so I can weigh my options. I think I won't be able to travel and this is going to cause some real headaches for the project I am part of but as I said I want to kmow all options before I move forward.

billy few mates

Corbally wrote: »

I think I won't be able to travel and this is going to cause some real headaches for the project I am part of...

Also one of the first symptoms ironically enough...