Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

NSAman

Corbally wrote: »

Thanks Tenger. I was looking for an educated guess.
I havn't been following travel bans or corona threads closely so flights continuing to and from Spain until Thursday and other routes being closed until the end of March plus vague announcements from the EU left me a bit confused.

I am very healthy so not worried for myself. I think whilst travelling with caution my chances of spreading the virus is less than all the people that will be queing outside tesco for beer and toilet roll Wednesday morning. If planes are flying next week with passenger who have shown their travel is essential to them or their business and have taken precautions I will be on one of them.

I'm just looking for some clarity so I can weigh my options. I think I won't be able to travel and this is going to cause some real headaches for the project I am part of but as I said I want to kmow all options before I move forward.

Educated guess here is to forget it. Like you I have projects that require me to be there. I simply at this point cannot go anywhere. I have staff stuck in countries that they cannot get home. they themselves have decided not to travel, due to personal health issues.

They are housed and healthy currently, other staff are looking after them for everything. Honestly? don’t count on anything. With the travel bans, the whole thing is currently a nightmare and something I am laying awake at night over.

While you personally are a fit individual that doesn’t negate the fact not one person can predict the future. For your own sake, I know this project is important to you, better to stay safe yourself and any possibility of being stuck somewhere.

IE 222

Corbally wrote: »

Thanks Tenger. I was looking for an educated guess.
I havn't been following travel bans or corona threads closely so flights continuing to and from Spain until Thursday and other routes being closed until the end of March plus vague announcements from the EU left me a bit confused.

I am very healthy so not worried for myself. I think whilst travelling with caution my chances of spreading the virus is less than all the people that will be queing outside tesco for beer and toilet roll Wednesday morning. If planes are flying next week with passenger who have shown their travel is essential to them or their business and have taken precautions I will be on one of them.

I'm just looking for some clarity so I can weigh my options. I think I won't be able to travel and this is going to cause some real headaches for the project I am part of but as I said I want to kmow all options before I move forward.

This is the type of logic that has us in this mess in the first place.

Air crews, marine crew and hauliers are the only people classed as essential travel. Frankly, business meeting/projects in Antigua is the least of our worries right now.

Been healthy doesn't prevent you from catching the virus. Your body might fight the virus off quicker and better but until it does so you are a host and you can easily transmit the virus onto the next person. It doesn't take much for you to pass it on.

Icepick

Also, just because you don't die doesn't mean you won't have a long painful recovery ahead of you.

VG31

Alitalia is to be re-nationalised.

https://www.thelocal.it/20200317/italy-announces-plan-to-re-nationalise-struggling-alitalia-airline

Tenzor07

VG31 wrote: »

Alitalia is to be re-nationalised.

https://www.thelocal.it/20200317/italy-announces-plan-to-re-nationalise-struggling-alitalia-airline

Wow, surprised on that, they have been in trouble for years and the government is now throwing money in to prop up a not very viable business!

Tenzor07

Boeing about to be nationalised as well?


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-boeing-trump-administration-in-talks-about-short-term-aid.html

donkey balls

That all ready happens with certain freight trailers go unaccompanied on the normal pax/freight boats and on the freighter boats only.
These trailers are normally distribution to distribution sites, The likes of Airfreight and other perishable products are driver accompanied.

GM228

Tenger wrote: »

As has already been posted here, this situation is wholly unprecedented.

+1, and I never though I would ever read a headline like this:-

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-16/virus-to-bankrupt-most-airlines-by-end-of-may-consultant-says

The coronavirus pandemic will bankrupt most airlines worldwide by the end of May unless governments and the industry take coordinated steps to avoid such a situation, an aviation consultant warned.

As Tenger says this is wholly unprecedented, it is far worse than 9/11 and it took the airline industry 5 years to recover from that, even during 9/11 most intra-European/non trans-Atlantic flights ran as scheduled with some adjustments.

Another element which adds so much uncertainty is the amount of industry decimation this time round, for example 9/11s major impact was mainly on the aviation and tourism industries, this time round we have so many more industries effected (pubs, restaurants, childcare, schools, the social welfare burden etc) to a far greater scale which will no doubt only get worse as more people are diagnosed or self isolate, everyone is going to be fighting for a slice of any Government help which may be made available and no industry is likely to receive what it actually requires.

Nijmegen

I think there’s two things we should assume at this point:

Firstly, any travel in the foreseeable future is off. If you’re looking sceptically are anything within a 3 month window, I’d say the likelihood is it ain’t happening. We know from how long it took China to go into the hole and they’re not fully out yet that this is a realistic timeframe.

Secondly, the economic impacts of this across the board are so vast that the policy responses are going to have to be vast and unprecedented. I reckon we’ll all - households, businesses, governments - be getting bailed out by the magic money tree of the central banks. The patient will die on the table and be brought back to life with a big shock of direct action.

donkey balls

My company 2 weeks ago banned all unnecessary travel to the countries first mentioned in the affected areas , Since then new measures have being brought in to place 2 members of staff are in self insolation after being away one at Cheltenham the other in Spain.
We also have a questionnaire for all visitors and delivery drivers if they answer yes to any of the questions they are refused entry to the site.
The company cannot take any risk as we are at the forefront in the fight against the virus.
Mate was operating a flight 32 pax on board he said they shot up to FL250 and direct straight into land afterwards 30 min flight.

GM228

Trump live from Washington - Boeing are a great company who never had a problem before this.

Coil Kilcrea

GM228 wrote: »

Trump live from Washington - Boeing are a great company who never had a problem before this.

‘Probably ..... before this, the greatest company in America’ and by this he’s referring to Covid19.

Fireball81

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Wow, surprised on that, they have been in trouble for years and the government is now throwing money in to prop up a not very viable business!

Really? It's been a basket case for years.

Previously state aid wasnt allowed so now they get away with it since the rules were relaxed.

GM228

Coil Kilcrea wrote: »

‘Probably ..... before this, the greatest company in America’ and by this he’s referring to Covid19.

Indeed, hence the smiley, someone remind him of Boeing's other issues, in any case looks like Boeing in for a big bail out.

Tenzor07

Fireball81 wrote: »

Really? It's been a basket case for years.

Previously state aid wasnt allowed so now they get away with it since the rules were relaxed.

Yea so the EU is now allowing Italy to throw money at a basket case of an airline..

IngazZagni

Alitalia has only ever made a yearly profit once since it’s foundation in 1946 and that was in 1998 when they sold lots of assets. Between 1999 and 2008 they had net losses of €3.7 Billion. The propping up of this airline is an absolute scandal. However this is Italy we are talking about.

Nijmegen

To be honest I think this crisis is just going to demand blanket rescue missions across the economy. Trying to pick the pre existing basket cases from the genuine going concerns pre-corona will just get too messy.

Tenger

Olddog had posted this as a separate thread so Im popping it in here;

https://www.ryanair.com/gb/en/travel-updates/articles/UPDATE-WED-18-MAR

IMPORTANT CUSTOMER NOTICE – UPDATE WED 18 MAR 18 Mar 2020 • 20:42
Over the past few days, the spread of the Covid-19 virus has led most EU Governments to impose severe travel bans and restrictions, which have had a negative impact on the schedules of all Ryanair Airlines, causing widespread cancellations and travel disruptions across the network.
We advise customers considering travel that all Government travel restrictions must be followed. The situation changes on a daily basis, and we encourage customers to check relevant local guidelines issued by their Government before they travel, and our Travel Advisory page for more information on country-specific restrictions.
Our flight schedules have been hugely disrupted by these Government restrictions and will be subject to further cuts:
From 24:00 hrs Wed 18 Mar until 24:00 hrs Tue 24 Mar, Ryanair Group Airlines will cut flight schedules by over 80%. All affected customers will receive an email to advise them of their options and we kindly ask customers not to call us as our call centres are overloaded dealing with customer queries.
From 24:00 hrs Tue 24 Mar we expect that most if not all Ryanair Group flights will be grounded, except for a very small number of flights to maintain essential connectivity, mostly between the UK and Ireland. Details of these severely reduced schedule can be found on the Travel Advisory page on the Ryanair.com website, which will be updated regularly.
Ryanair will continue to stay in close contact with the Foreign Ministries of all EU Governments on the repatriation of EU citizens, and where possible we may operate rescue flights to support this repatriation.
Ryanair sincerely regrets all disruptions caused by this unprecedented Covid-19 crisis. The safety and well-being of our people and customers is our main priority and we will continue to comply with all WHO and EASA guidelines, as well as all Government travel restrictions which have been imposed over recent days to combat the Covid-19 pandemic.
All our thoughts and prayers are with our people and our customers and their families as we work our way through this crisis

Van.Bosch

Tenger wrote: »

............
IMPORTANT CUSTOMER NOTICE – UPDATE WED 18 MAR 18 Mar 2020 • 20:42
.............
From 24:00 hrs Wed 18 Mar until 24:00 hrs Tue 24 Mar, Ryanair Group Airlines will cut flight schedules by over 80%............

What happens if you can’t get a refund due to the Ryanair website being inundated and not recognising PNR’s before your flight was due to depart (return leg cancelled?)

Larbre34

Qantas / Jet Star are going on a two-month international hiatus as well vastly reducing its domestic schedules. 80% of staff are being "stood down".

Air Canada reducing its international services from 101 destinations to just 6 strategically located global hubs, to provide "essential air bridge" capacity. North American sectors to be greatly reduced.

Where the heck are Ryanair going to mothball >280 fifty ton aircraft??

goingnowhere

Larbre34 wrote: »

Where the heck are Ryanair going to mothball >280 fifty ton aircraft??

Stansted doesn't need two runways anymore... Ryanair does manage to park its entire fleet overnight so there is enough space at its base airports

Aer Lingus is more complex as its long haul fleet stays in the air so it won't all fit in Dublin

adam88

Van.Bosch wrote: »

What happens if you can’t get a refund due to the Ryanair website being inundated and not recognising PNR’s before your flight was due to depart (return leg cancelled?)

Going through the same thing. Meant to fly tomorrow but can’t apply for refund. Site won’t accept my number

Van.Bosch

adam88 wrote: »

Going through the same thing. Meant to fly tomorrow but can’t apply for refund. Site won’t accept my number

Same here - take screen shots of your attempts and get ready for the small claims court I’d say.

easypazz

adam88 wrote: »

Going through the same thing. Meant to fly tomorrow but can’t apply for refund. Site won’t accept my number

You cant get a refund unless flight is cancelled?

Van.Bosch

easypazz wrote: »

You cant get a refund unless flight is cancelled?

I’d say outbound is scheduled to operate, return is cancelled.

Risk is Ryanair say “you didn’t cancel before outbound no refund due”. Option to rebook, surprisingly works fine.

Caranica

adam88 wrote: »

Going through the same thing. Meant to fly tomorrow but can’t apply for refund. Site won’t accept my number

Get on to them on Twitter DM and they'll send you a different link

Ger Roe

I thought there was supposed to be a USA ban on flights incoming from Europe?
Looking at Flight Radar 24, there are still lots of aircraft heading east, across the Atlantic, from Europe and bound for USA destinations.

What is the situation with them?

Locker10a

Ger Roe wrote: »

I thought there was supposed to be a USA ban on flights incoming from Europe?
Looking at Flight Radar 24, there are still lots of aircraft heading east, across the Atlantic, from Europe and bound for USA destinations.

What is the situation with them?

The ban is on European citizens not actual flights

IngazZagni

It also applies the other way too doesn't it? At least within EU schengen. So American citizens can fly west and Eiropean citizens can fly esst.

SNNUS

Ger Roe wrote: »

I thought there was supposed to be a USA ban on flights incoming from Europe?
Looking at Flight Radar 24, there are still lots of aircraft heading east, across the Atlantic, from Europe and bound for USA destinations.

What is the situation with them?

I would imagine a lot of these flights have bellies full of cargo.