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Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry
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I dont think this will have any real affect on the industry here assuming the sunset clause of mid June remains in place. Flights up to then with pax would be loss making anyway with travel across the world still mostly discouraged. By the end of June I'd be hopeful we will reach the 80% of adults being vaccinated and at that point I hope we welcome back tourists but we need to start planning for that now. This would be so much more palatable if we had any plan at all.0
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J&J Vaccines are not meeting delivery targets in the US, there seems to be a widespread issue with Vaccine delivery, I'll believe our proposed vaccination timetable when we get them in people's arms. We are expecting 55m doses of J&J to the EU in Q2. AZ are only delivering 70m of the 180m they committed by end of Q2.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/04/09/johnson-johnson-vaccine-delays/0 -
I would be happy if they even mandated double vaccinations for all tourists from some these countries. They appear to have forgotten that the goal was not to overload the health service, rather than totally destroy the economy.IngazZagni wrote: »This would be so much more palatable if we had any plan at all.0 -
Another 16 countries on the mandatory hotel quarantine list as of the end of next week, announced today, some interesting ones:
Bangladesh, Belgium, France, Italy, Kenya, Luxembourg, Pakistan, Turkey, the USA, Canada, Armenia, Bermuda, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Curaçao, Maldives, Ukraine0 -
Yea great, makes sense adding the USA to the list :rolleyes: they're well ahead with the vaccinations, any business travellers from the U.S would have their 2nd jabs done and all before travelling plus negative PCR's... such a shambles to bring in the mandatory quarantine..0
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Yea great, makes sense adding the USA to the list :rolleyes: they're well ahead with the vaccinations, any business travellers from the U.S would have their 2nd jabs done and all before travelling plus negative PCR's... such a shambles to bring in the mandatory quarantine..
The purpose of seemingly to prevent the importation of vaccine resistant variants, which if they arrived and took hold, it would set the whole programme back to the start. I have genuine reservations about the policy though as 1) there's a huge Northern Ireland shaped hole in it and 2) it will be extremely difficult to end as the variant threat is not likely to end any time soon.0 -
MrMusician18 wrote: »The purpose of seemingly to prevent the importation of vaccine resistant variants, which if they arrived and took hold, it would set the whole programme back to the start. I have genuine reservations about the policy though as 1) there's a huge Northern Ireland shaped hole in it and 2) it will be extremely difficult to end as the variant threat is not likely to end any time soon.
It's all Populist nonsense when you can just cross the border, won't stop any variants, 100's of truck drivers a day coming off the ferries, not the fault of the Aviation sector that the Irish Government are still changing the vaccination program 5 months down the line... I can't even log in to a Govt. website and register for a vaccination...
Are they following Zero Covid or just pandering to those who are... all in all a mess..0 -
It's all Populist nonsense when you can just cross the border, won't stop any variants, 100's of truck drivers a day coming off the ferries, not the fault of the Aviation sector that the Irish Government are still changing the vaccination program 5 months down the line... I can't even log in to a Govt. website and register for a vaccination...
Are they following Zero Covid or just pandering to those who are... all in all a mess..
Bingo.
I thought the first lockdown this time last year was to allow the public health system to spin up capacity and resources to cope with the demand?
What's happened in the 12 months since?
Closing the door after the horse has bolted.0 -
Is it true that AZ is not FDA approved ?
if so what chance of it being accepted for entry stateside ?0 -
Correct
The US focused on US domestic products, pfizer, moderna, J&J
AZ was late to the party and stocks in the US have been 'loaned' to Mexico and Canada, probably to avoid expiry date issues.0 -
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I can't understand how MHQ was rolled out with zero account for vaccinations, seeing as the UK and the US were vaccinating from mid December. Issues around fully vaccinated arrivals was obviously going to be a early hiccup.
I've always been an advocate for MHQ but this very hard version 8-10 months too late seems like a PR stunt.
I posted it before but Hong Kong have 10 day MHQ, testing on arrival and testing on day 9.
Iceland have 6 days, test on day 1 and day 5.they also allow home quarantine for residents.
Home quarantine would work if we had an actual functioning track&trace system. Such an option could work for vaccinated arrivals.
After all our previous "14 days self isolation" was pretty insipid.
An article in the Times last week said that "Community spread" is just a code name for "we havent a frigging clue how it is spreading"0 -
I can't understand how MHQ was rolled out with zero account for vaccinations, seeing as the UK and the US were vaccinating from mid December.
I've always been an advocate for MHQ but this very hard version 8-10 months too late seems like a PR stunt.
I posted it before but Hong Kong have 10 day MHQ, testing on arrival and testing on day 9.
Iceland have 6 days, test on day 1 and day 5.they also allow home quarantine for residents.
Home quarantine would work if we had an actual functioning track&trace system.
An article in the Times last week said that "Community spread" is just a code name for "we havent a frigging clue how it is spreading"
The Muppets in Government and NPHET are only looking after themselves what the government is doing to the aviation and tourist industries is unbelievable at this stage.... talk about trying to close the barn door and the horse is in another country.
Yes totally agree they don't have a clue what they are doing its all reactive and a lot to do with the pre Covid health system which was under stress.
The media like RTE etc. are covering up be reporting on non important issues re Covid and lettiing the government off the hook.... I hope RTE show the same level of interest in the health system after Covid!0 -
That was never the case tbf. Hospital capacity is more or less fixed, it takes years to add capacity. To put it in aviation terms, you wouldn't expect an airline to suddenly open 30 new routes overnight - they'd need time to get aircraft, pilots and cabin crew. In the case of health, it takes time to build hospitals and hire staff, staff that are in huge demand globally.Bingo.
I thought the first lockdown this time last year was to allow the public health system to spin up capacity and resources to cope with the demand?
What's happened in the 12 months since?
Closing the door after the horse has bolted.
The point of the lockdowns it to avoid the health service reaching capacity. Always was.
The reason MHQ remains for the vaccinated is that currently there is no conclusive evidence that the vaccines offer sterilising immunity.0 -
MrMusician18 wrote: »
The reason MHQ remains for the vaccinated is that currently there is no conclusive evidence that the vaccines offer sterilising immunity.
The CDC would somewhat disagree with that statement (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/29/world/pfizer-moderna-covid-vaccines-infection.html)
8 other studies would also refute the broadness of your statement, one of which is in a country with dominant B.1.1.7 spread and high inoculation (Israel), in addition to the US where up to 4 VOC's were circulating in that particular study. The below studies are publicly available that show vaccines reduce asymptomatic infection (transmission);
Hall SSRN ~ 22/02/21
Dagan NEJM ~ 24/02/21
Weekes Authorea ~ 24/02/21
Pawlowski medRxiv ~ 27/02/21
Amit, Lancet ~ 06/03/21
Tande Clin Inf Dis ~ 10/03/21
Pfizer ~ 11/03/21
Thompson A. CDC MMWR ~ 30/03/21 (Referred to by NYTimes)
In all of these studies, the reduction of asymptomatic or infections including asymptomatic peaked at up to 94% with a minimum reduction of 75%. VOC's did indeed create somewhat of a pause effect in relation to how we approach resumptions of human life when impressions were given that vaccines would be compromised by VOCs. The majority of vaccines are adapting and still driving % reductions in asymptomatic/infection. More studies will show this as they are released in real-time.
Science has achieved an amazing standard where most vaccines efficacies are peaking in the high 90%, they reduce somewhat due to VOCs (501.V2/P.1) but nowhere near a level that will derail unlocking society. Nearly all remain 100% efficacious in preventing death.
VOC's will continue to develop for many years (particularly in 3rd world countries with low levels of inoculation), vaccines will adapt and life will continue. There seems to be a continued fixation on cases (they will explode when life resumes and CV19 is still circulating in young teens/children but will matter little), the main goal of stopping people dying is being achieved.
Only in Ireland do we witness blatant vaccine disinformation from some academics that have been elevated by media for no clear rationale such as ISAG who use VOC's as a means to spread continued misinformation - The narrative would be irresponsible if platformed in the United Kingdom or United States and it generally is not, we continue to do it here and its unnerving.
I do believe reputationally, regardless of how demand returns this Summer Ireland has compromised itself somewhat. Railroading in a system with no sunset clause or recognition of vaccination will cause immediate short-term and medium-term harm, how Ireland chooses to get itself out of this own goal is up to Governance, it’s something lacking for a long time and something I have very little faith in.0 -
You speak like you know what you are talking about but other qualified Organisations don't share your view. see here:MrMusician18 wrote: »The reason MHQ remains for the vaccinated is that currently there is no conclusive evidence that the vaccines offer sterilising immunity.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated-guidance.html
The research which has been done so far shows that the viral load is at the very least significantly reduced so the risks of transmission are dramatically reduced.
Further research would be required to prove sterilising immunity which might never be "conclusively" proved so as a criteria for justifying open-ended imposition of MHQ it is suspect. Little in life is a certainty.
You then go on to conflate quarantine with mandatory hotel quarantine as though MHQ is the correct course of action for those who have been vaccinated (or for that matter tested negative on a PCR or Antigen test).
Conflation of MHQ and Quarantine at home for those who are vaccinated is disingenuous.
Mandatory Hotel Quarantine is an intolerable restriction of civil liberties.
For example in Baden-Württemberg those returning from high risk areas are allowed quarantine for 10 days at home.
https://sozialministerium.baden-wuerttemberg.de/de/gesundheit-pflege/gesundheitsschutz/infektionsschutz-hygiene/informationen-zu-coronavirus/verordnungen/coronavo-einreise-quarantaene-und-testung/answers-to-frequently-asked-questions-about-the-corona-ordinance-entry-quarantine-eq/
The Germans would have competency to assess risk and chose not to introduce MHQ. Unelected individuals in Ireland coerce the Minister to do otherwise.
Hopefully, that Israeli lady who awaits a determination in the High Court on Monday on the topic of whether MHQ is detention will be successful in her complaint and will overturn MHQ legislation in part or in whole.
MHQ is not normal best practice.
MHQ is not a normal public health safety measure being followed in other European States and where it has been mooted in other Countries the duration was much shorter e.g. 3 days in Canada. We'll ignore the non-democratic countries.
MHQ is an intolerable infringement of civil liberties and the State has over-reached.
edit: I didn't see Jack1985's response when I started to compose my response. He quotes the same sentence from MrMusician18 and one of the same sources as I do so we were thinking along the same lines.0 -
The CDC would somewhat disagree with that statement (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/29/world/pfizer-moderna-covid-vaccines-infection.html)
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The article doesn't disagree with what I said. I said that the vaccines have not conclusively been proven to offer sterilising immunity, and that is reflected in the article which only states that it is likely. It remains unproven. The precautionary principle would therefore mean you assume that it doesn't until proved otherwise.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210203-why-vaccinated-people-may-still-be-able-to-spread-covid-19 my original remarks were based upon this article.
In any case this is a discussion for the main forum not here. I have started that MHQ although well meaning from a public health perspective, with almost certainly fail and fail quickly on its goal of preventing variants that the vaccine is less effective against from entering the country. Those that want to engage in the kind of discretionary travel that they shouldn't be doing anyway now will just fly in and out of Belfast instead. People were asked to restrict their movements, quarantine at home etc previously and they didn't, so I don't expect that to change - adherence is likely to get worse if anything.
MHQ hasn't been introduced in continental Europe for a number of reasons: differing legal systems and open borders are two things that would make it impossible to manage. Quarantine is really only suitable for island nations, and a mandatory hotel aspect is because people do not effectively quarantine when left to themselves.
I doubt the HC will overturn the legislation underpinning MHQ, as the court would likely not see itself to have sufficient expertise to contradict public health officials acting for the common good - especially on measures that are temporary. That said though the government does seem split on it so I wouldn't be surprised to see it tweaked to make it less onerous.0 -
MrMusician18 wrote: »The article doesn't disagree with what I said. I said that the vaccines have not conclusively been proven to offer sterilising immunity, and that is reflected in the article which only states that it is likely. It remains unproven. The precautionary principle would therefore mean you assume that it doesn't until proved otherwise.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210203-why-vaccinated-people-may-still-be-able-to-spread-covid-19 my original remarks were based upon this article.
In any case this is a discussion for the main forum not here.
Firstly, all of this impact’s aviation it’s the worst impacted industry as a result of Coronavirus as we all know. MHQ and the basis for its activation have a direct correlation to what is being discussed.
You've quoted an article from early Feb 21; I've listed 8 studies after that very article and a CDC update from late Mar 21 that is showing vaccines are massively reducing transmission with fantastic stats.
Nearly all vaccines are near 100% effective against stopping deaths. This was the ultimate goal for vaccination, chasing cases will have the world in a spiral for many years if that's the direction to be pursued. We will get there eventually with reducing the risk that VOCs present, just this week in more good news against the P.1 variant the new vaccine CoronaVac has shown the following in a study before mass deployment;- 50.4% reduction in Covid-19 cases
- 83.7% reduction in moderate cases
- 100% reduction in severe cases (or death)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.07.21255081v1
It's infuriating personally watching how MHQ is being handled. I would agree with the following, limit if you can where vaccines are proven to be compromised in efficacy leading to an increase in severe outcomes from known areas of VOC. But to subject to MHQ individuals who are less of a risk to the local population frankly flies in the face of science itself, Israel removed for good reason this week an utter embarrassment of a decision.
In Australia, the following was announced yesterday;Prime Minister Scott Morrison has flagged potential major changes to international travel as Australia's vaccine rollout continues.
The Federal Government has requested the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC) advise what thresholds need to be met in order for vaccinated Australians to travel overseas and the quarantine arrangements that would be required.
Mr Morrison said the government was seeking advice as to whether quarantine should remain in hotels, and if a home model or even no quarantine requirements were at all feasible to be implemented in the future for vaccinated travellers
As nations plan exit-strategies, we remain without any plan at all and are enacting regimes without checks and balances – It’s Governance overreach. I truly hope the DGP from the EU kicks in soon, the Government are incapable of properly handling this.0 -
I wish the airlines would get together and form a pact to give away free tickets for a day. Better still fill the aircraft with their own ground based staff on the promise that they will receive full pay and cost reimbursement if they are required to quarantine. Thats all that would be required to completely overrun this farcical system. Couple of extra flights from CDG and we are out of hotel rooms.0
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I think we're at the point a mass socialy-distant protest in uniform of all the staff is needed. Everyone needs to see the real people affected by this.0
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I wish the airlines would get together and form a pact to give away free tickets for a day. Better still fill the aircraft with their own ground based staff on the promise that they will receive full pay and cost reimbursement if they are required to quarantine. Thats all that would be required to completely overrun this farcical system. Couple of extra flights from CDG and we are out of hotel rooms.
If they tried that, the government would simply order the closure of the airports.
You do know we are talking about the government here. They have full control of our airspace and licensing of airlines.
BTW The UK has also put in place similar quarantine hotels, for people travelling from 33 countries.
It is actually more strict, it is actually a full travel ban for people travelling from those 33 countries, with the quarantine hotel only for returning UK and Irish residents.
So it certainly isn't just us who are implementing these steps.0 -
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It is understood that an Irish man who challenged the lawfulness of his detention in mandatory hotel quarantine is to be released this afternoon.
The move follows receipt of documentation from his lawyers this afternoon after the High Court directed an inquiry into his detention.
Derek Jennings, 47, flew home from Israel on Friday to be with his dying father.
His father, who was diagnosed with cancer last year, collapsed last week and was taken to intensive care.Meanwhile, a healthcare worker who had arrived to work in Ireland from Israel, who had also challenged her detention in quarantine, is also being released today.
I'm still stunned to think this sort of a system with review only available post-arrival (that was denied twice) is in place in a western democratic country in addition to the reasons I set out in previous postings.
Tide changing fast now, looking forward to comments from Labour, Social Democrats, Sinn Fein the cheerleaders of ISAG policies.
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0411/1209125-court-quarantine/0 -
I'm still stunned to think this sort of a system with review only available post-arrival (that was denied twice) is in place in a western democratic country in addition to the reasons I set out in previous postings.
Tide changing fast now, looking forward to comments from Labour, Social Democrats, Sinn Fein the cheerleaders of ISAG policies.
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0411/1209125-court-quarantine/
The tide is not changing, their is popular support for the current measures in the country, nothing is going to change until we get the majority of the population vaccinated, if you think otherwise you are delusional. There will be no summer holiday flights this year, and flights will remain for emergency use only until we are close to fully vaccinated.
News like this article doesn't help matters.
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0411/1209143-covid-ireland/There have been Covid-19 outbreaks linked to at least three flights into Ireland in the past fortnight, according to a spokesperson from the Department of Health.0 -
The tide is not changing.
It is when the state won't allow cases go to the High Court because they'll be proved unconstitutional. Already looking forward to the judicial review of the Dubai 2. Eamon Ryan was on Radio 1 this morning suggesting vaccinated people may shortly be exempt. The state knows what it is up against.
Delusion is believing any of this is acceptable.News like this article doesn't help matters.
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0411/1209143-covid-ireland/
Shock horror, lets lock ourselves away again a big scary variant has arrived. How about we take a look at all our community transmission that they can't be arsed to trace to source - No it's scary Foreigner with variant that is the problem. Get real.0 -
It is when the state won't allow cases go to the High Court because they'll be proved unconstitutional. Already looking forward to the judicial review of the Dubai 2. Eamon Ryan was on Radio 1 this morning suggesting vaccinated people may shortly be exempt. The state knows what it is up against.
Delusion is believing any of this is acceptable.
Eamon Ryan gave a timeframe of weeks or more likely months if you listen to what he said. I do think we'll get our vaccination program sorted in a time frame of months, but it's going to be Q4 by the time that kicks in properly.
A vaccination passport scheme is also going to be a big challenge as by it's very nature it will discriminate against the young and the healthy which in itself may well be unconstitutional. If everyone in the nation has been offered their full compliment of vaccinations then it might fly as it will only discriminate against the anti-vaxxers et al, which is fine by me.....0 -
It is when the state won't allow cases go to the High Court because they'll be proved unconstitutional. Already looking forward to the judicial review of the Dubai 2. Eamon Ryan was on Radio 1 this morning suggesting vaccinated people may shortly be exempt. The state knows what it is up against.
Delusion is believing any of this is acceptable.
Shock horror, lets lock ourselves away again a big scary variant has arrived. How about we take a look at all our community transmission that they can't be arsed to trace to source - No it's scary Foreigner with variant that is the problem. Get real.
You can rant all you like, I am just being a realist here, nothing is going to change in a hurry, except your blood pressure.0 -
You can rant all you like, I am just being a realist here, nothing is going to change in a hurry, except your blood pressure.
Save the personal digs, if you can't have a robust discussion that's on you.Eamon Ryan gave a timeframe of weeks or more likely months if you listen to what he said. I do think we'll get our vaccination program sorted in a time frame of months, but it's going to be Q4 by the time that kicks in properly.
I have to say the off the cuff of timeframes is quite something, you haven't a notion nor do I of the timeframes involved in the processes to arrive at those deadlines. I for that very reason not pointed to any specific timeframe for such decisions, I envisage Q3 seeing some return of travel at low levels and have said such before.
If you want to discuss like an Adult, I'm more than happy to but keep your personal digs to yourself.0 -
I have had Covid-19 incidentally and as such could travel to the US under their 90 day rule outlined below, so I am being directly penalised by our current rules. I am not in favour of them in all cases, I just don't see any chance that they will be revised or changed in a hurry, I expect them to remain in place until such time as our vaccination roll out has got to the point it needs to be at!Effective January 26, all airline passengers to the United States ages two years and older must provide either a negative COVID-19 viral test taken within three calendar days of travel or provide a positive test result and documentation from a licensed health care provider or public health official of having recovered from COVID-19 in the 90 days preceding travel. Passengers must also attest, under penalty of law, to having received a negative qualifying test result or to recovery from COVID-19 and medical clearance to travel.0
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News like this article doesn't help matters.
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0411/1209143-covid-ireland/
Do we believe there is a valid reason as to why the DoH are re-highlighting today a 9 month old report well discussed on this thread which has been disputed by others in Public Health/Genetics/Virology hours after the state releases two individuals to prevent a HC case?
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/transmission-of-covid-19-on-flight-into-ireland-linked-to-59-infections-1.4390728
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1025/1173859-coronavirus-cases-flight/I'd be pretty embarrassed to have my name to attached to such an appalling report. There are so many omissions, no data on jurisdictions passengers travelled from or movements in the cabin or even highlighting (in relation to potentially inbound pax from red countries) that it could have been mitigated in some percentage by testing - those to name just a few.
See below tweet from Professor Francois Balloux, Director of the UCL Genetics Institute in response to the report:
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1321006726359982080?s=200 -
Save the personal digs, if you can't have a robust discussion that's on you.
I have to say the off the cuff of timeframes is quite something, you haven't a notion nor do I of the timeframes involved in the processes to arrive at those deadlines. I for that very reason not pointed to any specific timeframe for such decisions, I envisage Q3 seeing some return of travel at low levels and have said such before.
If you want to discuss like an Adult, I'm more than happy to but keep your personal digs to yourself.
As I stated the Gov has popular support for their actions, rightly or wrongly, and as long as that continues so will the restrictions on travel.
Jesus, we can't even book a holiday down the country as it stands, let alone dream of flying to a house in Spain or whatever, the next review is not until the 4th May. We stubbornly remain at or around 500 cases per day for a 14 day average, this has been the case since the end of the Christmas debacle. The Vaccination situation looks very tenuous at best with AZ, J&J and others having issues meeting commitments, globally the pre-cursors for Vaccine production are stretched to breaking point.
One of many many articles on this issue - https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/not-just-serum-shortage-of-vaccine-raw-material-troubling-global-vaccine-makers/story/433506.htmlNot just Serum, shortage of vaccine raw material troubling global vaccine makers
Chatham House says that the signs of input supply challenges are being observed across all vaccine manufacturing steps which include bioreactor bags, single-use systems, cell culture media (upstream), filters, gamma sterilisation (upstream and downstream), vials (fill-and-finish), etc
The idea of a Vaccine passport is a troublesome one, and as I stated before, may not be considered until such time as everyone has been offered their full compliment of doses, as it could be perceived as grossly unfair otherwise, we'll have to see on that one.
But all in all it seems highly unlikely that travel will resume at all, outside of real necessity, any time soon.0 -
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The idea of a Vaccine passport is a troublesome one, and as I stated before, may not be considered until such time as everyone has been offered their full compliment of doses, as it could be perceived as grossly unfair otherwise, we'll have to see on that one.
But all in all it seems highly unlikely that travel will resume at all, outside of real necessity, any time soon.
Have you evidence of this or is it just your opinion?0
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