Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Nijmegen

I can't really respond or discuss the vaccine stuff, except to say that the science is developing and policymakers are clearly changing their views based on that evidence as it emerges and their response as it impacts on the aviation industry. As the swings and roundabouts on various vaccines prove, this is a moving target and certainties are not in abundance. Personally I do think some measures are less effective than others but I also have sympathy for policymakers who are having to make decisions in a fast moving environment versus the certainty that people in various industries and just at home would like.

EasyJet has announced they plan to run 20% of their normal schedule between April and June and then see an increase over the summer, banking on vaccinated Brits getting to travel around Europe for their holidays. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/easy-jet-to-ramp-up-summer-holiday-flights-as-it-makes-loss-085203147.html

kevinandrew

Blut2 wrote: »

Cork Airport to close for 10 weeks to allow major runway reconstruction -- https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/cork-airport-to-close-for-10-weeks-to-allow-major-runway-reconstruction-1.4537022

It makes logical sense to do the runway work this year while traffic is down, but I really can't see this helping to attract business back to ORK. In the time its closed I'd imagine a lot of what remains of its traffic will migrate permanently to DUB.

Vilnius Airport closed for 5-6 weeks in peak summer 2017 for runway resurfacing, the reasoning they gave was the better weather in summer supported the resurfacing. All flights temporarily migrated to Kaunas.

It was a much shorter closure than what Cork is planning and in different circumstances but traffic rebounded almost instantly for Vilnius.

basill

Blut2 wrote: »

Cork Airport to close for 10 weeks to allow major runway reconstruction -- https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/cork-airport-to-close-for-10-weeks-to-allow-major-runway-reconstruction-1.4537022

It makes logical sense to do the runway work this year while traffic is down, but I really can't see this helping to attract business back to ORK. In the time its closed I'd imagine a lot of what remains of its traffic will migrate permanently to DUB.

The airlines take a differing view. The planned closures will come about when it is hoped that we are let out to play. The questions being asked are why the works didn't commence 6-12 months ago. What the impact will be of this decision on the airport going forward is the question.

IngazZagni

basill wrote: »

The airlines take a differing view. The planned closures will come about when it is hoped that we are let out to play. The questions being asked are why the works didn't commence 6-12 months ago. What the impact will be of this decision on the airport going forward is the question.

I'm pretty sure the airlines agreed this was the best plan. The alternative was to have reduced operating hours for many many months. In that time Ryanair said they would not have an operating base in Cork due to the restrictions. This at least means that the airlines have certainty from December 1st.

Astral Nav

basill wrote: »

The airlines take a differing view. The planned closures will come about when it is hoped that we are let out to play. The questions being asked are why the works didn't commence 6-12 months ago. What the impact will be of this decision on the airport going forward is the question.

A fair point. Bear in mind Cork is controlled by the DAA who tend to lack a bit of operational insight. If there is a late ‘21 travel recovery then a huge embarrassment for Cork airport and a further shock to the Munster economy.

kevinandrew

basill wrote: »

The airlines take a differing view. The planned closures will come about when it is hoped that we are let out to play. The questions being asked are why the works didn't commence 6-12 months ago. What the impact will be of this decision on the airport going forward is the question.

Does anyone really believe there’ll be a meaningful return of traffic in September-November? We still seem a very, very long way off a relaxation in travel restrictions and when it does eventually happen it’ll be a slow and painful process.

Why this wasn’t done 6-12 months ago is easily answered by the fact that nobody knew what was happening from one week to the next, the situation was so fluid and unpredictable that airlines couldn’t firm schedules more than a couple of weeks in advance and airports certainly weren’t in the position to consider closures for runway resurfacing.

What’s changed is that reality has finally set in, the short term outlook is still woeful but at least we know what to expect. This time last year we still had hopes for a late summer 2020 boost, now we’re pretty certain summer 2021 is a write off and a winter recovery is going to be slow at best.

The airport has been all but closed for 18 months by the time this work begins, what’s an extra 10 weeks of actual closure in what will more likely than not be a continuation of dramatically reduced flying schedules in a traditionally quiet time of year.

bombs away

kevinandrew wrote: »

Does anyone really believe there’ll be a meaningful return of traffic in September-November? We still seem a very, very long way off a relaxation in travel restrictions and when it does eventually happen it’ll be a slow and painful process.

Why this wasn’t done 6-12 months ago is easily answered by the fact that nobody knew what was happening from one week to the next, the situation was so fluid and unpredictable that airlines couldn’t firm schedules more than a couple of weeks in advance and airports certainly weren’t in the position to consider closures for runway resurfacing.

What’s changed is that reality has finally set in, the short term outlook is still woeful but at least we know what to expect. This time last year we still had hopes for a late summer 2020 boost, now we’re pretty certain summer 2021 is a write off and a winter recovery is going to be slow at best.

The airport has been all but closed for 18 months by the time this work begins, what’s an extra 10 weeks of actual closure in what will more likely than not be a continuation of dramatically reduced flying schedules in a traditionally quiet time of year.

As much as I dislike Stephen Donnelly, he mentioned on Newstalk last night that he was hopeful that the digital green certificate would allow travel for fully vaccinated people between EU states this summer and that the MHQ was only designed to last until then. So it might come back quicker than you think. Planned to go operational in June and it's legislative so EU states will be required by law to implement it.

https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-response/safe-covid-19-vaccines-europeans/covid-19-digital-green-certificates_en

AnRothar

Astral Nav wrote: »

A fair point. Bear in mind Cork is controlled by the DAA who tend to lack a bit of operational insight.

Inquitus

bombs away wrote: »

As much as I dislike Stephen Donnelly, he mentioned on Newstalk last night that he was hopeful that the digital green certificate would allow travel for fully vaccinated people between EU states this summer and that the MHQ was only designed to last until then. So it might come back quicker than you think. Planned to go operational in June and it's legislative so EU states will be required by law to implement it.

https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-response/safe-covid-19-vaccines-europeans/covid-19-digital-green-certificates_en

It doesn't look like enough people in Europe will be vaccinated for it to make a material difference.

IQO

Impact on the aviation industry:

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0415/1209980-covid-19-quarantine/

A spokesman for Dublin Airport said while routes from some countries that have been added to the Government's list today have been busier since the announcement, routes from other countries added to the list have been quieter.

He said flights arriving at Dublin Airport yesterday were more than 60% empty.

It is understood that of the five flights arriving into Dublin from the US between 5am and 9am this morning, around 12 people are entering the country, with an even smaller number transiting to other countries.

One flight had no passengers on board.

Wondering how long these routes can be sustained like this.. possibly the US flights have some cargo on.

Looking at the arrivals board it looks like there are no flights from Italy at all until the end of the weekend.

bombs away

Inquitus wrote: »

It doesn't look like enough people in Europe will be vaccinated for it to make a material difference.

Please explain what you're basing that on? Or is that just an assumption?

Here's a link to the ecdc implementation plan which shows a reasonably decent uptake at the moment. Despite some setbacks with AstraZeneca and J&J the EU is still on track for 70% of the adult population to be vaccinated by the summer so I don't know where you're getting the idea that it won't make any material difference? I'd suggest you read the report.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/overview-implementation-covid-19-vaccination-strategies-and-vaccine-deployment

Acosta

Astral Nav wrote: »

A fair point. Bear in mind Cork is controlled by the DAA who tend to lack a bit of operational insight. If there is a late ‘21 travel recovery then a huge embarrassment for Cork airport and a further shock to the Munster economy.

I heard if they kept it open while doing the job, it would take 9 months, which means it would run into the summer schedule next year and ultimately they'd lose a lot more passengers than closing it completely for 10 weeks.

Hopefully it will work out for them. Given the slow vaccine rollout, Guards fining people at airports, the media obsession with air travel at moment, hotel qurenteen etc I would think the vast majority have already accepted they won't be going abroad for the rest of the year and have made plans to holiday in Ireland.

PommieBast

bombs away wrote: »

As much as I dislike Stephen Donnelly, he mentioned on Newstalk last night that he was hopeful that the digital green certificate would allow travel for fully vaccinated people between EU states this summer and that the MHQ was only designed to last until then. So it might come back quicker than you think. Planned to go operational in June and it's legislative so EU states will be required by law to implement it.

Will it include the UK though? Given how the UK gov't has painted the EU's Covid response as a benefit of Brexit, I doubt it..

bombs away

PommieBast wrote: »

Will it include the UK though? Given how the UK gov't has painted the EU's Covid response as a benefit of Brexit, I doubt it..

The UK are implementing their own travel system separate to what the EU are doing. The British government have mentioned that it will be compatible with the EU system dependent on the format.

AnRothar

Acosta wrote: »

I heard if they kept it open while doing the job, it would take 9 months,.

9 months?
I suspect your source is slightly wrong.
Shannon resurfaced its runway during the night in about 3 months, Knock resurfaced its runway in about the same time.
Shannon closed from midnight to six during the works.

IngazZagni

AnRothar wrote: »

9 months?
I suspect your source is slightly wrong.
Shannon resurfaced its runway during the night in about 3 months, Knock resurfaced its runway in about the same time.
Shannon closed from midnight to six during the works.

The DAA themselves have said 9 months. Thats because it's not just a runway resurfacing job. It's a substantial upgrade to the airside infrastructure which includes various things like new taxiway lighting and all the stuff you cant see like a new electrical system etc etc.

IQO

https://twitter.com/IATA/status/1382736957277663237

Acosta

AnRothar wrote: »

9 months?
I suspect your source is slightly wrong.
Shannon resurfaced its runway during the night in about 3 months, Knock resurfaced its runway in about the same time.
Shannon closed from midnight to six during the works.

It was a Cork Airport representative that said it on local radio.

Tenzor07

Well, with the FFFG Government busy closing down the country's travel links and confining it's returning citizens into Hotels it's only inevitable that it's destroying Ireland's position as a leader in Aviation services as well as important travel links which boost the very economy which is going to have to pay for all the Health measures in place now....

AL pulling aircraft out of Ireland and Ryanair putting resources elsewhere:


https://www.newstalk.com/news/ireland-is-last-on-our-list-for-investment-ryanair-ceo-warns-1180488

Inquitus

Heathrow CEO comments on current situation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j64qPiMy260

Inquitus

bombs away wrote: »

Despite some setbacks with AstraZeneca and J&J the EU is still on track for 70% of the adult population to be vaccinated by the summer

That number is for 1st dose vaccinations, which take nearly 2 months to build actual resistance to the disease and then a lot of countries are delaying the 2nd doses to up to 3 months after the first. To be truly vaccinated you need to have had 2 doses and also have the 8 weeks of resistance build up after the final dose. That adds in the worst cases 12 weeks (delay between doses) + worst case 8 weeks (after 2nd dose for immunity build up) so even if 70% of adults have had one dose by the end of Jun it could be up to another 5 months before they would be entitled to a vaccine passport.

Tenger

Inquitus wrote: »

That number is for 1st dose vaccinations, which take nearly 2 months to build actual resistance to the disease and then a lot of countries are delaying the 2nd doses to up to 3 months after the first. To be truly vaccinated you need to have had 2 doses and also have the 8 weeks of resistance build up after the final dose. That adds in the worst cases 12 weeks (delay between doses) + worst case 8 weeks (after 2nd dose for immunity build up) so even if 70% of adults have had one dose by the end of Jun it could be up to another 5 months before they would be entitled to a vaccine passport.

Which countries are included in “a lot”?
As of yesterday I had read about the UK and Denmark delaying the 2nd dose.
Germany is only considering it and it has been mentioned in interviews with Irish Govt members. The CDC in the USA have ruled it out.

And while it is correct to say that full efficacy takes several weeks there is remarkable efficacy (30-50% within 10 days) very quickly. Vaccines are rarely ever 100% but in the current situation their use is to reduce transmissibility. So 'every little helps'.

I just read an article saying that the Pfizer vaccine deliveries 95% efficacy 2 weeks after the second dose;
https://horizon-magazine.eu/article/five-things-you-need-know-about-delaying-gap-between-covid-19-vaccine-doses.html

This Lancet report from 5 weeks ago questions the validity of the UK decision to delay the 2nd dose:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00455-4/fulltext

As a non medical person the publicised numbers do support the gamble by the UK Govt.

From an aviation point of view Im guessing that any 'vaccine oassport' will only count for fully vaccinated people.

VG31

Tenger wrote: »

From an aviation point of view Im guessing that any 'vaccine oassport' will only count for fully vaccinated people.

It's quite unfair to people who get AZ if you must be fully vaccinated since the gap between doses is 12 weeks.

The J&J single shot is very similar to the AZ vaccine and offers comparable protection to the first shot of AZ. It would be a bit ridiculous to consider someone who got J&J as fully vaccinated but not AZ in that situation.

bombs away

Inquitus wrote: »

That number is for 1st dose vaccinations, which take nearly 2 months to build actual resistance to the disease and then a lot of countries are delaying the 2nd doses to up to 3 months after the first. To be truly vaccinated you need to have had 2 doses and also have the 8 weeks of resistance build up after the final dose. That adds in the worst cases 12 weeks (delay between doses) + worst case 8 weeks (after 2nd dose for immunity build up) so even if 70% of adults have had one dose by the end of Jun it could be up to another 5 months before they would be entitled to a vaccine passport.

Full efficacy is actually achieved between 7 and 14 days after the second dose. Again you are pulling figures out of your ass.

https://news.weill.cornell.edu/news/2021/02/covid-19-vaccines-and-immunity-how-long-does-it-take-for-the-vaccines-to-provide

And even if only say 20 percent of the EU population had received their second dose by the end of the summer, it's still 20% more than are currently eligible now to travel. I'm pretty sure that's more than "material difference" as you claim. The passport will also apply to people who have recovered from the virus without having received one or both vaccinations or any which counts for a significant amount at present.

Tenger

VG31 wrote: »

It's quite unfair to people who get AZ if you must be fully vaccinated since the gap between doses is 12 weeks.

WHO data says between 8-12 weeks.

Under "dosage"
https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/the-oxford-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-what-you-need-to-know


Edit; saw a report on RTE that of the 5 inbound US flights on Thursday there were 12 passengers. One flight was empty.

Gammyeye

Are any Ryanair flights going from Shannon these days? I know someone who has a flight to Salou booked for mid May. Are all flights not grounded?

IngazZagni

Gammyeye wrote: »

Are any Ryanair flights going from Shannon these days? I know someone who has a flight to Salou booked for mid May. Are all flights not grounded?

Everything suspended until Mid May for now. It's highly likely the restart dates will continue to get pushed back so I hope they don't have high hopes of getting on that flight.

cson

Tenger wrote: »

WHO data says between 8-12 weeks.

Under "dosage"
https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/the-oxford-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-what-you-need-to-know


Edit; saw a report on RTE that of the 5 inbound US flights on Thursday there were 12 passengers. One flight was empty.

PHL-SNN is still loaded in AAs system for late summer.

Said it on here a few times, but they'd easily sell those seats (both ways I reckon) if FFFG had a clear pathway to allow vaccinated travel into Ireland. The demand for domestic leisure travel over here is exceeding 2019 levels. There are a lot of folks in the US who'd love nothing more than a week in Ireland blowing a couple of $k.

But the Government, and quite a few folks on here, seem to think that eliminating risk rather than reducing it is the best path forward. It's madness.

donkey balls

VG31 wrote: »

It's quite unfair to people who get AZ if you must be fully vaccinated since the gap between doses is 12 weeks.

The J&J single shot is very similar to the AZ vaccine and offers comparable protection to the first shot of AZ. It would be a bit ridiculous to consider someone who got J&J as fully vaccinated but not AZ in that situation.

I received the 1st dose of AZ last month with the 2nd dose to be scheduled 12 weeks later,This is all up in the air at the moment with the them pushing it out to 16 weeks.
Then saying people under the age of 60 should not receive the AZ due to issues with blood clots, No one knows whether the people who received the AZ has to start all over again with a different vaccine.
The so called vaccine passport can anyone really see that working where by you could have a couple with one vaccinated and the other not.

Tenger

cson wrote: »

........
........
But the Government, and quite a few folks on here, seem to think that eliminating risk rather than reducing it is the best path forward. It's madness.

I would agree, this virus isn’t going away any time soon. Even once it’s under control it will still be there.

We need to reduce risk and live with it rather than aiming for zero covid.