Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

donkey balls

Tenger wrote: »

I would agree, this virus isn’t going away any time soon. Even once it’s under control it will still be there.

We need to reduce risk and live with it rather than aiming for zero covid.

This coukd end up like the flu jab people get every year there be a shot for CV19 possibly.

Locker10a

Locker10a wrote: »

I think it will pass in a few months and be forgotten about by mid summer

Nah it'll be around for longer than you think.

Tenger

donkey balls wrote: »

This coukd end up like the flu jab people get every year there be a shot for CV19 possibly.

Very much so. This time last year it was very dangerous, it was unknown, it was highly infectious, it had a long pre-symptomatic phase. Existing treatments didn't work, mortality was 8%.

Now the medical sector have far more understanding of how to treat it. Mortality has dropped and we have vaccines.

I can see the old "touch of man flu" phrase becoming "I had a touch of Covid" in 3-4 years.

donkey balls

Regarding the vaccine wether it be AZ or Pfizer when it comes to your turn to get the vaccine make sure your not working the next day, The morning after I got mine I was groggy then got a pox of a headache I normally never get any headaches and am reluctant to take anything ended up taking 2 Nurofen went to bed and got up the next morning fine.

Locker10a

donkey balls wrote: »

Regarding the vaccine wether it be AZ or Pfizer when it comes to your turn to get the vaccine make sure your not working the next day, The morning after I got mine I was groggy then got a pox of a headache I normally never get any headaches and am reluctant to take anything ended up taking 2 Nurofen went to bed and got up the next morning fine.

I felt absolutely fine after mine, no issue whatsoever, it’s really down to how each individual responds.

donkey balls

Locker10a wrote: »

I felt absolutely fine after mine, no issue whatsoever, it’s really down to how each individual responds.

True but everyone I know who got it felt like crap the next day especially after the 2nd dose of Pfizer, Sisters fella was in a jock afterwards that they put in place people getting it if unwell the next day they had cover lined up in the hospital.

Tenger

Saw a post on twitter a few days ago.
NYC is experiencing more supply than demand.
Apparently there were 50K unused time slots for vaccination last weekend.
My mates in the US are already vaccinated. They say that their are no residency/immigration status questions in order to get the jab. (both are in their 40s and are in different states)

I'm wondering if we could see "vaccine tourism" in the next couple of months if the US lifts their travel ban on EU/UK arrivals?

Blut2

^ I've had a few (Irish citizen/resident) friends in their 30s engage in some vaccine tourism while in the US for work/family reasons already. All the states they did it in was ask for an ID - not any proof of US residency. Given the high numbers of illegals in the US, and America's now surplus of vaccines, it seems to be a policy most places to just give the vaccine to anyone asks for one. Much better for public health that way to be fair.

Its definitely a smart thing to do if you're over there in the next few months. Anyone in their 20s/30s could be waiting until August in Ireland.

NSAman

Tenger wrote: »

Saw a post on twitter a few days ago.
NYC is experiencing more supply than demand.
Apparently their were 50K unused time slots for vaccination last weekend.
My mates in the US are already vaccinated. They say that their are no residency/immigration status questions in order to get the jab. (both are in their 50s and are in different states)

I'm wondering if we could see "vaccine tourism" in the next couple of months if the US lifts their travel ban on EU/UK arrivals?

This is quite probable.

Where I am (in the middle of nowhere ) you Can just go to the local pharmacy at this stage. No queues, no waiting and that is in the space of two weeks. My medical clinic has already vaccinated anyone who is a client and wanted the vaccine.

Having heard the news from dozens of friends at home (through a barrage of texts) that quarantine can be done at home for those vaccinated. I hope it brings Aer Lingus some much needed business. I WILL be travelling myself in the coming weeks. It can’t come soon enough! Two years is too long having not seen the family.

IngazZagni

Blut2 wrote: »

^ I've had a few (Irish citizen/resident) friends in their 30s engage in some vaccine tourism while in the US for work/family reasons already. All the states they did it in was ask for an ID - not any proof of US residency. Given the high numbers of illegals in the US, and America's now surplus of vaccines, it seems to be a policy most places to just give the vaccine to anyone asks for one. Much better for public health that way to be fair.

Its definitely a smart thing to do if you're over there in the next few months. Anyone in their 20s/30s could be waiting until August in Ireland.

What are they expecting to do for their second dose here?

bk

donkey balls wrote: »

This coukd end up like the flu jab people get every year there be a shot for CV19 possibly.

Important to point out, that the yearly flu vaccine is because there are hundreds of different flu strains, and each year the flu vaccine contains the top 3 to 5 strains that they think will be circulating that year, not because immunity wanes.

Interestingly both Modern and Pfizer/Biontech are working on next gen mRNA flu jabs and they are looking into creating a combined flu/Covid19 jab if it is needed yearly.

Also interestingly there is some early evidence that the Covid19 vaccines are also greatly reducing other Coronavirus, like the various ones that are partly responsible for the common cold.

Of course it should be stressed that no one knows how long immunity against Covid19 will last. It might be just a year, 5 years, 10 years, etc. Only time will tell.

Blut2

IngazZagni wrote: »

What are they expecting to do for their second dose here?

They're not terribly concerned about that. The first dose alone gives approx 90% immunity, which is a hell of a lot better for themselves and their family around them (and Ireland in general as well, to be fair) than the 0% they had before.

Tenger

Blut2 wrote: »

They're not terribly concerned about that. The first dose alone gives approx 90% immunity, which is a hell of a lot better for themselves and their family around them (and Ireland in general as well, to be fair) than the 0% they had before.

More like 50-60% after 1st dose. But definitely better than nothing.
(The existing yearly flu jab is only 70% effective)

Blut2

Tenger wrote: »

More like 50-60% after 1st dose. But definitely better than nothing.
(The existing yearly flu jab is only 70% effective)

Nope, significantly better they think now apparently:

Using the data from the published study of the Pfizer vaccine, Public Health England determined that vaccine efficacy was 89% 15-21 days after dose 1 – and before dose 2 on day 21.

https://theconversation.com/how-effective-is-the-first-shot-of-the-pfizer-or-moderna-vaccine-156615

But yeah, either way, definitely better than the 0% they'd have waiting around here for months yet!

IngazZagni

Blut2 wrote: »

They're not terribly concerned about that. The first dose alone gives approx 90% immunity, which is a hell of a lot better for themselves and their family around them (and Ireland in general as well, to be fair) than the 0% they had before.

Interesting. I wonder if that'll cause any issues getting the Euro green certificate.

Hopefully the target of 80% of adults by end of June will be met. They could make that 100% if they spaced out the shots more.

Inquitus

bombs away wrote: »

Full efficacy is actually achieved between 7 and 14 days after the second dose. Again you are pulling figures out of your ass.

https://news.weill.cornell.edu/news/2021/02/covid-19-vaccines-and-immunity-how-long-does-it-take-for-the-vaccines-to-provide

And even if only say 20 percent of the EU population had received their second dose by the end of the summer, it's still 20% more than are currently eligible now to travel. I'm pretty sure that's more than "material difference" as you claim. The passport will also apply to people who have recovered from the virus without having received one or both vaccinations or any which counts for a significant amount at present.

Those 20% are mainly made up of the elderly, those in care homes etc. not the actual travelling demographic. <snip>

Cookiemunster

IngazZagni wrote: »

They could make that 100% if they spaced out the shots more.

They'll never make it 100% unless it's made mandatory. Repeated polls show that only around 80% of people intend to get the vaccine. Which means that by the end of June 100% of people who want it will have been vaccinated at least once.

Darwin

Cookiemunster wrote: »

They'll never make it 100% unless it's made mandatory. Repeated polls show that only around 80% of people intend to get the vaccine. Which means that by the end of June 100% of people who want it will have been vaccinated at least once.

I think that's being very optimistic with respect to end of June. So far less than 800,000 have had their first dose. They need to be doing around 250,000 a week to make that target I reckon.

Cookiemunster

Darwin wrote: »

I think that's being very optimistic with respect to end of June. So far less than 800,000 have had their first dose. They need to be doing around 250,000 a week to make that target I reckon.

838,644 first doses administered as of Friday. 250,000 a week is the target that they've set. If they push out the second dose of Pfizer past 4 weeks (which is rumoured to be happening), the 80% will have had their first dose well before the end of June.

lintdrummer

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/coalition-wanted-to-shut-out-travel-for-tourist-season-with-jab-passport-delay-40322401.html

Surprised this wasn't mentioned here. The Government intended to prevent international travel until after the Summer by delaying the introduction of a vaccine passport system. Supposedly this is not primarily out of a concern for public health but because they don't have the infrastructure to centrally record who has been vaccinated. Boggles the mind.

Irish Steve

lintdrummer wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/coalition-wanted-to-shut-out-travel-for-tourist-season-with-jab-passport-delay-40322401.html

Surprised this wasn't mentioned here. The Government intended to prevent international travel until after the Summer by delaying the introduction of a vaccine passport system. Supposedly this is not primarily out of a concern for public health but because they don't have the infrastructure to centrally record who has been vaccinated. Boggles the mind.

You're surprised? I'm not in the least surprised, the political system can't wipe its arse without employing a clatter of consultants to advise them on how to do it, the HSE are still looking for the plug to put in in the bath so they can fill it, and companies like IBM and Hewlett Packard, along with the big accountancy/computer consultancy firms don't want anything like a coordinated and joined up thinking strategy from the relevant parties in Government, keeping multiple legacy computer systems that go back to the ark across multiple departments, with no coherent strategy to have any form of merging of common information is a massive earner for all of these external money gougers, and they have absoulutely zero to gain if they recommend any sort of rationalisation of state systems, and that's before the unions kick off.

bombs away

Inquitus wrote: »

Those 20% are mainly made up of the elderly, those in care homes etc. not the actual travelling demographic. <snip>

And where are the figures to back this up???? You're saying old people don't travel??? Wow, just wow.

SNNUS

AA Updates,

DUB-DFW Cancelled for 2021
DUB-CLT Delayed start/ probable cancellation for 2021

SNN-PHL Cancelled for 2021

It will take many years to reverse all this...

Inquitus

SNNUS wrote: »

AA Updates,

DUB-DFW Cancelled for 2021
DUB-CLT Delayed start/ probable cancellation for 2021

SNN-PHL Cancelled for 2021

It will take many years to reverse all this...

They have the planes, I would imagine they would return as soon as it is viable, at least I hope so. If we can get vaccinations to where they need to be by July then I would be hopeful.

Inquitus

bombs away wrote: »

And where are the figures to back this up???? You're saying old people don't travel??? Wow, just wow.

60% of Travel is by those under 45, of the remaining 40% the vast majority is in the 45-55 range. So given the avg age of vaccination is currently 70 and over, with 65-69 targeted next, it stands to reason the majority of those who fly are currently not vaccinated.

bombs away

Inquitus wrote: »

60% of Travel is by those under 45, of the remaining 40% the vast majority is in the 45-55 range. So given the avg age of vaccination is currently 70 and over, with 65-69 targeted next, it stands to reason the majority of those who fly are currently not vaccinated.

Again completely wrong, here's a link to eurostat figures for the EU. Clearly shows that 20% of the travelling population of Europe are over 65 and nearly 33% are over 55. You really should stop making stuff up. The data with regards to vaccine rollout clearly indicates the middle of the summer whereas you're quoting figures for the present which aren't relevant at all.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/images/4/48/Shares_of_different_age_groups_in_the_15_years_or_over_tourist_population_and_in_the_15_years_or_over_total_population%2C_2018_%28%25%29.png

That also doesn't answer the question I asked as to why you think the majority of elderly people are in care homes or don't travel???

compromise and admit both are wrong in absence of data to prove otherwise. Stats which exclude those under 15 are no great proof of anything. stats which don't specify if population are flying or taking their car/train are not reliable w.r.t. the argument here. I know my neighbours travel a lot as Tourists but it is mostly done in train or car, not airplane.

bombs away

[Deleted User] wrote: »

compromise and admit both are wrong in absence of data to prove otherwise. Stats which exclude those under 15 are no great proof of anything. stats which don't specify if population are flying or taking their car/train are not reliable w.r.t. the argument here. I know my neighbours travel a lot as Tourists but it is mostly done in train or car, not airplane.

I didn’t say anything about people under 15, what are you on about? If you had bothered to read back over my previous posts which clearly you haven’t, all I said was that if 20 percent of the adult population is allowed to travel from the summer onwards irrespective of whether that’s by plane train or automobile through the use of a green passport, it’s a significant amount more than are currently able to. Some people disagreed, I’m clearly pointing out facts here. If someone decides that doesn’t suit their narrative then that’s up to them but I’m getting a little tired of all this scaremongering that’s going on with regards to travel. It’s not the bloody bogeyman that people are making it out to be.

It’s funny that no one seems to have an issue with getting on a bus here at the moment or a train. Or the Luas, was crowded the other day when I was on it. But get on an aircraft and everyone loses their bloody minds. It needs to stop.

Tenger

We can all disagree with another’s opinions if we want to. But we can do so as adults.

It’s difficult to change another’s views. We can present our own, preferably with supporting evidence, and see what happens.

mr.anonymous

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0420/1210898-stobart-air-sold-to-ettyl/

Stobart Air and Carlisle Airport sold to Ettyl, Isle of Man based group.

Wonder what they'll do with it after the EIR franchise concludes at end of 2022.