Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

basill

Suggest you pop over to Pprune and read about Ettyl and a vigorous discussion of differences between IOM oversight versus UK-CAA. It would be nice to think that the IAA would grow a pair given the very dark cloud that still hangs over the Cork crash and advise the government to either steer well clear or ensure that they are brought under Irish oversight.

mr.anonymous

basill wrote: »

Suggest you pop over to Pprune and read about Ettyl and a vigorous discussion of differences between IOM oversight versus UK-CAA. It would be nice to think that the IAA would grow a pair given the very dark cloud that still hangs over the Cork crash and advise the government to either steer well clear or ensure that they are brought under Irish oversight.

Isle of Man based virtual airline was enough to remind me of the Cork accident...

Inquitus

bombs away wrote: »

Again completely wrong, here's a link to eurostat figures for the EU. Clearly shows that 20% of the travelling population of Europe are over 65 and nearly 33% are over 55. You really should stop making stuff up. The data with regards to vaccine rollout clearly indicates the middle of the summer whereas you're quoting figures for the present which aren't relevant at all.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/images/4/48/Shares_of_different_age_groups_in_the_15_years_or_over_tourist_population_and_in_the_15_years_or_over_total_population%2C_2018_%28%25%29.png

That also doesn't answer the question I asked as to why you think the majority of elderly people are in care homes or don't travel???

This is from a representative survey of passengers at Dublin airport, as you can clearly see the number of passengers in the currently vaccinated age group is minimal.



https://www.nationaltransport.ie/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NTA_StateAirportSurvey2016_ReportNovember2017.pdf

Blut2

Inquitus wrote: »

This is from a representative survey of passengers at Dublin airport, as you can clearly see the number of passengers in the currently vaccinated age group is minimal.



https://www.nationaltransport.ie/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NTA_StateAirportSurvey2016_ReportNovember2017.pdf

The eurostat figures are much more accurate. Your study only surveyed 6000 passengers, in a very limited window:

The sampling frame was set for interviewing to take place on Monday to Friday only.

No weekend traffic would miss a huge amount of the older section of the population, who're much more likely to be traveling on Saturday to Saturday or Sunday to Sunday package holidays. And 6000 passengers being interviewed at gates is barely 20 flights worth of passengers, its easily skewed massively by which flights the interviewers focused on.

Inquitus

Blut2 wrote: »

The eurostat figures are much more accurate. Your study only surveyed 6000 passengers, in a very limited window:



No weekend traffic would miss a huge amount of the older section of the population, who're much more likely to be traveling on Saturday to Saturday or Sunday to Sunday package holidays. And 6000 passengers being interviewed at gates is barely 20 flights worth of passengers, its easily skewed massively by which flights the interviewers focused on.

The difference is minimal, currently we are still only vaccinating those over 70 in the general population, so the 15.5% of over 65's in the eurostat stats, is not much different to those in mine, and in regard to the percentage of those who are actually vaccinated, that's not going to shift the needle in terms of flight uptake as things stand. We all want things to normalise, but people on here are delusional about how soon it is going to happen and imprint their wants and wishes above common sense and reality, some thing they have constantly been doing for the last year and consistently wrong about. Achill Island for your holidays this years lads and lasses not the costa del sol.

bombs away

Inquitus wrote: »

The difference is minimal, currently we are still only vaccinating those over 70 in the general population, so the 15.5% of over 65's in the eurostat stats, is not much different to those in mine, and in regard to the percentage of those who are actually vaccinated, that's not going to shift the needle in terms of flight uptake as things stand. We all want things to normalise, but people on here are delusional about how soon it is going to happen and imprint their wants and wishes above common sense and reality, some thing they have constantly been doing for the last year and consistently wrong about. Achill Island for your holidays this years lads and lasses not the costa del sol.

But we’re not talking about now are we. The EU passport system is meant to go live in June. So all your figures mean squat then. But that doesn’t suit your narrative does it? Yawn 🥱

Inquitus

bombs away wrote: »

But we’re not talking about now are we. The EU passport system is meant to go live in June. So all your figures mean squat then. But that doesn’t suit your narrative does it? Yawn ��

The EU Passport system only works if you are fully vaccinated, 2 doses and the 8 weeks thereafter for full effectiveness. As things are going by June how many people will meet that criteria. It's nearly May and I am in the 45+ age group and haven't even got a hint of getting a first dose, that means even if I was vaccinated today it would be early to mid July by the time I qualify for the passport, and the chances of me being vaccinated today are close to zero, given we are still working on the 70+ age group.

Tenger

Inquitus wrote: »

The EU Passport system only works if you are fully vaccinated, 2 doses and the 8 weeks thereafter for full effectiveness.

The EU scheme may well have differing restrictions based on 1 dose or 2. Let's wait till its fully unveiled before criticising it.
The "Digital Green Certificate" document states that it covers vaccinated and recovered people. And any exemptions will still have to be in line with each member states health restrictions.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_1181

That claim about efficacy has already been debunked by two studies posted in response to you. Israeli studies show extremely good response after the 1st dose. And 90-95% within 2 weeks of the 2nd dose.
https://news.weill.cornell.edu/news/2021/02/covid-19-vaccines-and-immunity-how-long-does-it-take-for-the-vaccines-to-provide
https://theconversation.com/how-effective-is-the-first-shot-of-the-pfizer-or-moderna-vaccine-156615


The Irish vaccination program may be slow but a structure needs to be put in place in the next couple of weeks to allow travel in July/August.
I don't think anyone here thinks June will be "normal". The hope is that June will be the start of a return to normal.

I'm also in the 45+.but as with my parents I don't expect to get more than a 2 week heds up of my vaccine appointment.
Irish Govt say 80% of adults will have a dose by end of June. Thats still hugely impressive from where we were last June. If I had my 1st dose in mid June I could them make plans does late July or August.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/covid-vaccine-ramp-up-to-see-80-of-adults-get-dose-by-june-martin-1.4493373

But we (my family) are being cautious and not mentally planning a foreign trip so as not to get the kids hopes up. The best we might get is a week in Spain.
So optimistic tinged with realism.

bombs away

Inquitus wrote: »

The EU Passport system only works if you are fully vaccinated, 2 doses and the 8 weeks thereafter for full effectiveness. As things are going by June how many people will meet that criteria. It's nearly May and I am in the 45+ age group and haven't even got a hint of getting a first dose, that means even if I was vaccinated today it would be early to mid July by the time I qualify for the passport, and the chances of me being vaccinated today are close to zero, given we are still working on the 70+ age group.

It’s 14 days full efficacy after the second dose mate, not 8 weeks. And we’re not talking about travel today, as you just admitted it’s July when you qualify for the passport and it’s then that they’re planning for it.

Blut2

Inquitus wrote: »

The EU Passport system only works if you are fully vaccinated, 2 doses and the 8 weeks thereafter for full effectiveness. As things are going by June how many people will meet that criteria. It's nearly May and I am in the 45+ age group and haven't even got a hint of getting a first dose, that means even if I was vaccinated today it would be early to mid July by the time I qualify for the passport, and the chances of me being vaccinated today are close to zero, given we are still working on the 70+ age group.

This is completely incorrect. The "EU passport scheme" as you're calling (the green/travel certificate in reality) allows travel anywhere in Europe if you have any ONE of the following three:

- Evidence of recovery from covid
- A negative PCR test taken within 72 hours
- Evidence of vaccination

https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-response/safe-covid-19-vaccines-europeans/covid-19-digital-green-certificates_en

So its open to everyone, there is no requirement to have been vaccinated - fully or not.

You're really posting a lot of very uninformed, completely incorrect, claims in this thread.

Inquitus

Blut2 wrote: »

This is completely incorrect. The "EU passport scheme" as you're calling (the green/travel certificate in reality) allows travel anywhere in Europe if you have any ONE of the following three:

- Evidence of recovery from covid
- A negative PCR test taken within 72 hours
- Evidence of vaccination

https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-response/safe-covid-19-vaccines-europeans/covid-19-digital-green-certificates_en

So its open to everyone, there is no requirement to have been vaccinated - fully or not.

You're really posting a lot of very uninformed, completely incorrect, claims in this thread.

- Evidence of recovery from covid Within the last 90 days
- A negative PCR test taken within 72 hours Highly costly for a family
- Evidence of vaccination Currently unknown when we might get fully vaccinated

Not a million miles different to the rules for flying to the states at the moment, which nigh on no one is doing.

Blut2

Inquitus wrote: »

- Evidence of recovery from covid Within the last 90 days
- A negative PCR test taken within 72 hours Highly costly for a family
- Evidence of vaccination Currently unknown when we might get fully vaccinated

Not a million miles different to the rules for flying to the states at the moment, which nigh on no one is doing.

So you admit you were completely wrong on your claim that the EU green certificate is "only open to those who are fully vaccinated"?

PCR tests are down to 89eur in Ireland, and falling every month. They're as low as 30eur in other parts of Europe. An additional 120euro per person isn't going to put many people off travel who have their mind set to it (and/or when they've been unable to travel for an extended period of time, and saving lots of money as a result).

The rules for flying to the US are completely and utterly different. You cannot enter the US if you've been in the UK/Ireland/Schengen within the 14 days, and are not a US citizen.

Again, you obviously have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. You really need to go off and do some basic reading on the subject before posting about this.

IngazZagni

Blut2 wrote: »

PCR tests are down to 89eur in Ireland, and falling every month. They're as low as 30eur in other parts of Europe. An additional 120euro per person isn't going to put many people off travel who have their mind set to it (and/or when they've been unable to travel for an extended period of time, and saving lots of money as a result).

I still think relying on this PCR test is extremely risky. What if you tested positive at your holiday destination 2 days before you are due to travel home? You are screwed and your family will have to isolate for 2 weeks, probably at their own expense in a foreign Country.
I think most people will be waiting until they are fully vaccinated as it's much less risky.

NH2013

I suppose one issue with the PCR test is what happens if you test positive while away, how do you pay for hotel or accommodation out of pocket to isolate for the two weeks until you can fly home again?

Therefore it's not really until people are vaccinated that I think we'll see significant levels of traffic again, even if the green pass allows for PCR testing.

I think that'll be used more for the case of business people going to business meetings or people visiting friends and relatives that would have somewhere to isolate for 2 weeks, rather than for the average holiday maker who won't be able to afford an extra two weeks in a hotel or apartment on top of their holiday already booked should they test positive.

NH2013

IngazZagni wrote: »

I still think relying on this PCR test is extremely risky. What if you tested positive at your holiday destination 2 days before you are due to travel home? You are screwed and your family will have to isolate for 2 weeks, probably at their own expense in a foreign Country.
I think most people will be waiting until they are fully vaccinated as it's much less risky.

Read my mind.

Enduro

IngazZagni wrote: »

I still think relying on this PCR test is extremely risky. What if you tested positive at your holiday destination 2 days before you are due to travel home? You are screwed and your family will have to isolate for 2 weeks, probably at their own expense in a foreign Country.
I think most people will be waiting until they are fully vaccinated as it's much less risky.

The Canaries have an insurance policy for this that all visitors are automatically enrolled in.

PommieBast

Suppose it was just a matter of time. Vaccine tourism package holidays.

bombs away

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/international-holidays-could-return-in-thesummer-with-introduction-of-eu-wide-travel-certificate-40341693.html

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1385138378333642759

Nijmegen

Michael O'Leary is predicting a full return on business travel (short haul anyway) by 2022. He noted that Ryanair sees about 30% biz pax, 30% people visiting friends and family and 40% leisure, so it's still a big bite for them.

O’Leary said he expected corporate travel to return to pre-Covid-19 levels by 2022 unless the pandemic unexpectedly worsened and vaccines did not allow people to travel freely again.

“All of these predictions business travel is dead . . . they generally always prove to be wrong,” he told the Financial Times’s Due Diligence Forum on Wednesday.

I would note that MOL is prone to making some pretty inaccurate statements where the pandemic is concerned. Early on he was pretty bullish about the "lunacy" of overreacting to Coronavirus. I guess we'll see if he's right on this or just talking up his book.

He did note that he thinks Ryanair could make breakeven this financial year. I guess based on a good summer.

O’Leary predicted that the carrier had a “reasonable chance” of breaking even in this financial year, which runs until March 2022, but added that was the best he could hope for.

Tenzor07

bombs away wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/international-holidays-could-return-in-thesummer-with-introduction-of-eu-wide-travel-certificate-40341693.html
https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1385138378333642759

"Could return"..... "Too early.."Certainly, at some stage over the next number of months"... "wouldn't give an exact date" ... " “But, the exact date we have to hold back on. "“So, let’s just take it step by step."....

How can anyone listen to this Government? Ryan is only focused on reducing carbon emissions and would love noting better than to have a tiny aviation sector and people holidaying locally only.

bombs away

Tenzor07 wrote: »

"Could return"..... "Too early.."Certainly, at some stage over the next number of months"... "wouldn't give an exact date" ... " “But, the exact date we have to hold back on. "“So, let’s just take it step by step."....

How can anyone listen to this Government? Ryan is only focused on reducing carbon emissions and would love noting better than to have a tiny aviation sector and people holidaying locally only.

Suppose the main positive to take from it is that they are talking about it. And as the Covid passports come on stream and will be enshrined in European legislation, any traveller who qualifies for one can’t be refused one from their respective government.

Tenger

bombs away wrote: »

Suppose the main positive to take from it is that they are talking about it. And as the Covid passports come on stream and will be enshrined in European legislation, any traveller who qualifies for one can’t be refused one from their respective government.

Indeed. I’ve no respect for Eamon Ryan but at least the conversation about aviation and travel is happening. The IT article featuring Simon Coveney was very bleak with a headline of “travelling abroad is against the law”

basill

MOL has business pax now eh. That brought a chuckle.

Chris_5339762

basill wrote: »

MOL has business pax now eh. That brought a chuckle.

Probably quite a few. Any business travel I've done has been on Ryanair "book the cheapest"

Nijmegen

basill wrote: »

MOL has business pax now eh. That brought a chuckle.

Quite successfully so, I would say - once they introduced assigned seats, priority queueing and a few other bits and pieces, like the ability to have rebookable tickets, Ryanair became pretty accessible for most business travelers. I found them easier to use in some instances than others, eg having easier to use airports in some places (once you get over the fact that it's a shed, and realise that means there's a straight line 50 meters from the front door to the airplane). Probably the biggest harm to them of late has been that the priority queue is now as long as the regular one.

Blut2

I'd never use them on a route I can claim miles for flying with a legacy airline if I have an equal choice. But I've personally flown them quite a few times on business travel when either they fly to an airport thats better logistically, or they have more convenient flight times flying to a main airport.

I'd rather an Aer Lingus flight over a Ryanair one at roughly the same time, to the same location, any day. But if the EI flight is at 6am, and the FR one is at lunch time... I'm flying FR.

L1011

There are some business heavy routes like DUB-BSL - pharma industry - where they go direct (In normal times) and nobody else does. Plenty of circumstances where business travelers may use Ryanair.

The Ryanair flight being at lunchtime on a route is a reason that route generally won't, though

bk

When people think of business travel, they are usually thinking of something like silicon valley executives flying Business or first class to SFO.

But in reality it is an entire spectrum of business travel, with the other end being lots of ordinary folks like sales people, consultants, technicians, etc. flying to the likes of London for meetings every few days in the "cheap" seats.

BigMoose

Or in my case flying to SFO to my silicon valley HQ down the back in the cheap seats...

I also (used to!) use Ryanair a fair bit for business travel but agree with what others have said, if there's an EI flight to the same destination I'll choose it for collecting the miles. But often there isn't and Ryanair it is. But choose a seat near the front, make some effort not to be at the back of the long priority queue so my carry on can go vaguely near me and expense whatever food/drink I fancy on board and it's not a bad experience..!

goingnowhere

BigMoose wrote: »

Or in my case flying to SFO to my silicon valley HQ down the back in the cheap seats...

I know that feeling all too well, just about bearable on s Saturday and way nicer than the old days of LHR or ORD routines. Was told to stay quiet about riding in business when EI upgraded me... 3/5k was heaven on the way out.

The loop over Menlo Park on approach was always fun for the facebook and googlers on board.

EI was making a profit on SFO on a full J cabin and freight in the hold, each cheap seat sold was effectively profit, so the J cabin is going to be fairly light going forward. The cheap seat riders like myself will get one trip a year not 2-3 as before so the economics will be interesting and its going to be challenging outside of Summer to have the 95% load factors, the SFO flight went out full regularly