Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Cookiemunster

goingnowhere wrote: »

EI continues to operate JFK and BOS

Not from SNN.

Aviation2k19

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Not from SNN.

Will they be back for the summer?

LXFlyer

Aviation2k19 wrote: »

Will they be back for the summer?

Who can answer that? Everything is uncertain right now.

None of us know when this saga is going to end.

At the moment the flights are shown as resuming, but that is completely dependant on how the COVID-19 restrictions pan out over the coming weeks and months.

Inquitus

goingnowhere wrote: »

EI continues to operate JFK and BOS

And ORD, there are 3 East Coast US flights every day. JFK, BOS and ORD.

Caranica

Inquitus wrote: »

And ORD, there are 3 East Coast US flights every day. JFK, BOS and ORD.

Since when is Chicago East coast? It's in the mid west!!

Tenger

Caranica wrote: »

Since when is Chicago East coast? It's in the mid west!!

True enough. But I think it’s more of an administrative division for EI, there’s East coast, West Coast and Florida Ops.

Caranica

Tenger wrote: »

True enough. But I think it’s more of an administrative division for EI, there’s East coast, West Coast and Florida Ops.

No wonder they're in trouble if they can't get their geography right Have spent more time in ORD over the years than I care to remember. Though all bar one trip was with DL as I was Skyteam Gold so that eased the pain a little.

Saul88

Sign of things to come? Lucky to have non firm orders to cancel with limited penalties.

Irish based leasing companies massively exposed. They are highly leveraged so any interruption to leasing receipts from airlines will create a huge cash flow shock for them. We all know what happened GPA who were very profitable but too highly leveraged and had commitments to a large order book and when one thing went wrong (IPO) the house of cards fell.

https: //simpleflying.com/avolon-boeing-737-max-cancellation/

Mortelaro

Who was operating a flight from DUB to Damascus Syria this morning? :eek: and what was its purpose, who would be going there?

DOCARCH

Mortelaro wrote: »

Who was operating a flight from DUB to Damascus Syria this morning? :eek: and what was its purpose, who would be going there?

I just asked on other thread! :P Peace keeper rotation.

Mortelaro

DOCARCH wrote: »

I just asked on other thread! :P Peace keeper rotation.

It's a low cost Russian airline that runs charters for that I see alright
I remember being in Beirut a few years ago and asked a taxi driver was it safe to go to Syria as it was just a half hour down the road
He told me last time he went down that way,he met an unofficial patrol who checked his papers asked him to get out of his car and then gave him the bus fare back to Beirut:D

(We decided to stay in Beirut...)

Gekko

Someone on twitter posted they were on an AL flight to US the other day

It had 2 passengers going over and came back with 22.

Crazy

Irish Steve

Gekko wrote: »

Someone on twitter posted they were on an AL flight to US the other day

It had 2 passengers going over and came back with 22.

Crazy

and the cargo holds and any other available space were probably stuffed to the gills with cargo. It's already been stated several times in this and other threads that the main objective and reason for keeping some flights going at the moment is cargo, I saw one flight earlier in the week that went to San Francisco, but didn't go as a passenger flight number, it went as an EIN9XX, which meant it was a cargo only flight. There may well have been a second flight crew in the business cabin to avoid night stopping, but times are very much NOT normal at the moment.

orionm_73

The EI to SFO has changed its flight number ( from EI 147 to EI 61) and on FR24 appears as EI9XX. Same with the BHD-LHR flights as they also have 2 digit flight numbers.

I saw one flight earlier in the week that went to San Francisco, but didn't go as a passenger flight number, it went as an EIN9XX, which meant it was a cargo only flight.

LXFlyer

orionm_73 wrote: »

The EI to SFO has changed its flight number ( from EI 147 to EI 61) and on FR24 appears as EI9XX. Same with the BHD-LHR flights as they also have 2 digit flight numbers.

These were pre-planned changes to the Aer Lingus flight numbering sequences changed at the winter/summer timetable change date last weekend.

This was to accommodate planned expansion of North American flights over the next few years.

Already discussed back in February in the Aer Lingus thread in this and in the following posts.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112622282&postcount=8676

W1ll1s

Canary's-1st Sat in April 11am-2019 + 2020

mikel97

Irish Steve wrote: »

and the cargo holds and any other available space were probably stuffed to the gills with cargo. It's already been stated several times in this and other threads that the main objective and reason for keeping some flights going at the moment is cargo, I saw one flight earlier in the week that went to San Francisco, but didn't go as a passenger flight number, it went as an EIN9XX, which meant it was a cargo only flight. There may well have been a second flight crew in the business cabin to avoid night stopping, but times are very much NOT normal at the moment.

Wasn't cargo flight, its new ATC Flight Id Number. Nothing to gills at all, very little.
Yes strange times. Dead aviation in Europe where I am in addition.

donkey balls

How many PMC and LD3 does the 330 hold?

Irish Steve

looks like 10 PMC, or 32 LD3's or a mix, and then there's whatever they can cram into the bulk hold, and in the cabin as well by the look of a post I saw on Facebook, which was a genuine Aer Lingus photo. Weights are very variable.

donkey balls

They wanna be charging top dollar for those spaces, Just before the crisis hit western Europe and the USA some cargo airlines had stopped flying routes into China.

trellheim

cargo in the hold

alancostello

Tenger wrote: »

Doubt they have a clue what the situation will be in June.
2 months from the start of the shutdown across Europe is mid May.
Remains to be seen if 2 months is long enough.

It’s not, June will get us over the peak but if we just immediately resume ordinary life it’ll come right back. Social distancing will continue until we have a vaccine, this isn’t just going to go away.

MJohnston

Nah, things will evolve before a vaccine arrives. We can start working on widespread testing. People will be able to prove and display their immunity status in some fashion, which will allow them to return to a kind of normality, even if the rest of society hasn’t.

That said, I do think one of the longest tail effects will be severe restrictions on international travel. Post-travel quarantines to reduce community spread, and that kind of thing.

And even when a vaccine arrives, it’ll take quite a while to ramp up production, which means we’ll be dealing with a semi-immunised population for a long time after that. The airline industry is in for a long, painful time.

Foggy43

For anyone that is interested, BA this morning started putting their A380's in storage in Chateauroux (CHR), France. Six will go there over today and tommorrow. The rest to follow next week.
G-XLEA is now in CHR and G-XLEF about to depart LHR.
Unfortunately CHR was chosen as this gives BA another 'option' rather than storage.

Update: G-XLEI now on route to CHR

john boye

Foggy43 wrote: »

For anyone that is interested, BA this morning started putting their A380's in storage in Chateauroux (CHR), France. Six will go there over today and tommorrow. The rest to follow next week.
G-XLEA is now in CHR and G-XLEF about to depart LHR.
Unfortunately CHR was chosen as this gives BA another 'option' rather than storage.

Update: G-XLEI now on route to CHR

Five BA B747s were flown to Teruel over the weekend and it's sounding like they won't be coming back.

alancostello

MJohnston wrote: »

Nah, things will evolve before a vaccine arrives. We can start working on widespread testing. People will be able to prove and display their immunity status in some fashion, which will allow them to return to a kind of normality, even if the rest of society hasn’t.

That said, I do think one of the longest tail effects will be severe restrictions on international travel. Post-travel quarantines to reduce community spread, and that kind of thing.

And even when a vaccine arrives, it’ll take quite a while to ramp up production, which means we’ll be dealing with a semi-immunised population for a long time after that. The airline industry is in for a long, painful time.

Even the highest estimates of all cases (both tested and non-laboratory confirmed/non-hospitalised) is in the single digit millions, which is roughly 0.1% of the worlds population. Even if we hit 70 million people recovered in the next 6 months (which is an insane amount that would overwhelm every hospital system in the world) that’s still a drop in the ocean at 1% and a lot of people would die along the way. 1% of the world resuming normal life is not going to be any real sense of normality.

Nijmegen

I have to remark, getting any kind of a refund out of an airline or (god forbid) travel agency at the moment is a real ache. Trying to get refunds for cancelled flights with Turkish and it's much the same with other airlines from what I've read elsewhere. Their call centers are either overrun with calls or affected by lockdowns and they don't make the option available online. You need to call them to get through and talk about EC261 and no thanks for the voucher or free change change, I want my money back after you cancelled the flight. Endless waiting, calls cut off... Just make the option available online if you can't service the flight and you can't adequately service the calls.

MJohnston

alancostello wrote: »

Even the highest estimates of all cases (both tested and non-laboratory confirmed/non-hospitalised) is in the single digit millions, which is roughly 0.1% of the worlds population. Even if we hit 70 million people recovered in the next 6 months (which is an insane amount that would overwhelm every hospital system in the world) that’s still a drop in the ocean at 1% and a lot of people would die along the way. 1% of the world resuming normal life is not going to be any real sense of normality.

There is plenty of talk about there being a large number of asymptomatic carriers, who would also be presumably immune. That's why we need more widespread, fast testing, because right now we're only testing people sick people.

Hoping/waiting for widespread immunity is just one part of it though. I just don't think we'll be waiting for a vaccine before trying to get people back to work, schools reopened, etc.

alancostello

MJohnston wrote: »

There is plenty of talk about there being a large number of asymptomatic carriers, who would also be presumably immune. That's why we need more widespread, fast testing, because right now we're only testing people sick people.

Hoping/waiting for widespread immunity is just one part of it though. I just don't think we'll be waiting for a vaccine before trying to get people back to work, schools reopened, etc.

At most it is 25% asymptomatic in certain parts of the population (children and younger people), and even that is unlikely to be that high.

I’m literally an epidemiologist and actively working on this. A safe vaccine is 12-14 months away, rapid testing will let us go outside more comfortably but we won’t be resuming any type of public gatherings or school/office work. We’re in for the long haul, I would genuinely be stunned if we’re resuming normal life before this time next year.

Peregrine

Nijmegen wrote: »

I have to remark, getting any kind of a refund out of an airline or (god forbid) travel agency at the moment is a real ache. Trying to get refunds for cancelled flights with Turkish and it's much the same with other airlines from what I've read elsewhere. Their call centers are either overrun with calls or affected by lockdowns and they don't make the option available online. You need to call them to get through and talk about EC261 and no thanks for the voucher or free change change, I want my money back after you cancelled the flight. Endless waiting, calls cut off... Just make the option available online if you can't service the flight and you can't adequately service the calls.

Aer Lingus didn't even tell me that my flight yesterday was cancelled until I messaged them on social media on Wednesday and asked them. The flight hasn't operated in a week and disappeared from their bookings even before that. I had to make them send me an email confirming that it was actually cancelled.

Meanwhile, I've gotten multiple emails saying "We know that there’s a lot of uncertainty about travel right now and we understand your concerns" and offering a voucher or a date change. If they can send that, they can send an email to passengers when a flight is cancelled offering a legally entitled refund.

My return flight in 13 days is still scheduled to operate, apparently. Same story. I'll have to put in a separate refund claim for that when they eventually confirm that it's cancelled.

Airlines are desperate to hold onto fares.