Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

MJohnston · 06-04-2020 2:39pm

alancostello wrote: »

At most it is 25% asymptomatic in certain parts of the population (children and younger people), and even that is unlikely to be that high.

I’m literally an epidemiologist and actively working on this. A safe vaccine is 12-14 months away, rapid testing will let us go outside more comfortably but we won’t be resuming any type of public gatherings or school/office work. We’re in for the long haul, I would genuinely be stunned if we’re resuming normal life before this time next year.

We will see what happens with Austria as a canary I suppose, but I would equally find it very surprising if we haven't attempted to reopen schools at the very least before August. Correct me if I'm wrong, but these 12-14 month estimates for a vaccine being ready are simply about when it is ready to begin production, right? So we could end up with another few months beyond that before everyone is able to access it? If we take schooling away from children from nearly 2 whole years, I think the societal damage of that is going to be profound.

I get that there is plenty I don't understand about epidemics, but I also think there will quickly come a point where the science of epidemiology isn't the only health consideration. Like, to put it bluntly, another month of lockdown beyond what we know is coming and I think the government will have to either start enforcing it with the army or they will have to come up with a different strategy involving laxer restrictions and rapid testing. The mental health implications of what we're doing right now would appear to be huge, and at some point I think people are going to get very, very restless.

But (to bring it back to the thread topic) the one thing I think most people will be relatively happy to forego is any mode of international travel (save for the technical version of that where you drive up North). I think most people will certainly be content to wait that out until there is widespread vaccinations.

sherology · 06-04-2020 3:17pm

As a scientist, the science above is correct, but as a pragmatist, I think those at most risk will be supported to stay at home and cocoon, while the rest will have to go back to work (July) and school (sept) with physical distancing if our jobs cannot be done remotely... This is based purely on economics. The world (and it's 200+ individual countries, budgets, governments) cannot 'afford to' stay in slumber for much longer than a few more months and survive financially. There would also be cabin-fever aspects. It's relatively cold outside, and relatively new to stay at home. That will become impossible to impose in a few months time and could result in disorder. Post-illness herd immunity for the 80% who have mild symptoms, cocooning for those at risk, and hopefully some successful results from that HIV drug, good 'home' testing, etc. may all help to flatten out the infections.

As for tourist type travel... Lord knows... But economics will have to play a part in that too. There may be some kind of 'when the R0 is less than 0.75, borders are open to other countries with the same R0 to travellers less than 70yrs old; who are asymptomatic (checked by temp) or those with proven immunity (via 15-min test).

But... Who knows... We can only borrow so much before we can't.

Interesting article from Norway whose R0 is now at 0.7.

https://www.thelocal.no/20200406/coronavirus-can-norway-open-up-without-seeing-infections-spike

Charles Babbage · 06-04-2020 7:44pm

SIN closing their T2 for 18 months, while speeding up extension works there.

Tenger · 06-04-2020 10:38pm

alancostello wrote: »

........
I’m literally an epidemiologist and actively working on this. A safe vaccine is 12-14 months away, rapid testing will let us go outside more comfortably but we won’t be resuming any type of public gatherings or school/office work. We’re in for the long haul, I would genuinely be stunned if we’re resuming normal life before this time next year.

"may you live in interesting times" is unfortunately quite apt.

I bow to your knowledge regarding a vaccine (the 2 youtube channels I have watched daily since Jan 6th support this Q1 2021 at the earliest estimate)

But lets says that by end of May 2-3 effective treatment regimes have been tested and approved (I know that the Chinese were apparently throwing every drug they had at this outbreak) would that not allow a relaxation of restrictions. The curve would have been flatten (hopefully) and the health system would be in a better position to treat patients.
I know that the hydroxy-chloroquine treatment is problematic as it has other applications, rendisivir has shown promise in initial trials in March. Im sure there may be 2-3 other routes that are being explored at the moment.

donkey balls · 06-04-2020 11:22pm

At present the only medicine available for patients and their treatment is medical oxygen,My other half lived in China and my best mate goes there twice a year.
Both of them told me that there is no actual western medicine available no pharmacy like we have in the western world.
Everything is more or less Chinese remedy.

07-04-2020 12:19am

Tenger wrote: »

"may you live in interesting times" is unfortunately quite apt.

I bow to your knowledge regarding a vaccine (the 2 youtube channels I have watched daily since Jan 6th support this Q1 2021 at the earliest estimate)

But lets says that by end of May 2-3 effective treatment regimes have been tested and approved (I know that the Chinese were apparently throwing every drug they had at this outbreak) would that not allow a relaxation of restrictions. The curve would have been flatten (hopefully) and the health system would be in a better position to treat patients.
I know that the hydroxy-chloroquine treatment is problematic as it has other applications, rendisivir has shown promise in initial trials in March. Im sure there may be 2-3 other routes that are being explored at the moment.

Besides all those they are currently looking at the BCG vaccine we all got. Statistics are showing that countries in which the use of BCG was prevalent are showing a much reduced rate of CV19. Italy, Spain, Netherlands and the USA did not use the BCG vaccine and have shown much higher incidence of CV19 and fatalities.

Research is ongoing as to whether BCG has given us a greater resistance to respiratory disease and infections. Anyone over the age of 5 here will have gotten one. Under 5’s are shown to be barely tickled by CV19 and it is being looked in to whether a booster shot of BCG for over 60’s or 70’s is all that will be required.

Now like so much this is undergoing field trials at the moment and it is hoped a result one way or the other will be known in the next 4 months.

BCG vaccinations were stopped because the stocks ran low simultaneously with the need to vaccinate against TB falling off as it had pretty much been irradiated. But as seen recently in parts of Cork they may need to start vaccinating again.

ratracer · 07-04-2020 2:00am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Besides all those they are currently looking at the BCG vaccine we all got. Statistics are showing that countries in which the use of BCG was prevalent are showing a much reduced rate of CV19. Italy, Spain, Netherlands and the USA did not use the BCG vaccine and have shown much higher incidence of CV19 and fatalities.

Research is ongoing as to whether BCG has given us a greater resistance to respiratory disease and infections. Anyone over the age of 5 here will have gotten one. Under 5’s are shown to be barely tickled by CV19 and it is being looked in to whether a booster shot of BCG for over 60’s or 70’s is all that will be required.

Now like so much this is undergoing field trials at the moment and it is hoped a result one way or the other will be known in the next 4 months.

BCG vaccinations were stopped because the stocks ran low simultaneously with the need to vaccinate against TB falling off as it had pretty much been irradiated. But as seen recently in parts of Cork they may need to start vaccinating again.

This is a very interesting post, and one that I will certainly be looking further into. Thanks for sharing.

Elemonator · 07-04-2020 2:29am

Genuine question, why does everyone in these threads refer to airports by their IATA name? Seems a bit obscure with the amount of airports in the world, nobody is going to know where SEN is. The three commercial pilots I call housemates don’t even go on like that.

Rotweiler · 07-04-2020 2:52am

Old habits

Wtf ? · 07-04-2020 3:19am

Elemonator wrote: »

Genuine question, why does everyone in these threads refer to airports by their IATA name? Seems a bit obscure with the amount of airports in the world, nobody is going to know where SEN is. The three commercial pilots I call housemates don’t even go on like that.

Wannabe Pilots, They refer to passengers as pax too !:D

LXFlyer · 07-04-2020 7:54am

Elemonator wrote: »

Genuine question, why does everyone in these threads refer to airports by their IATA name? Seems a bit obscure with the amount of airports in the world, nobody is going to know where SEN is. The three commercial pilots I call housemates don’t even go on like that.

Shorter than writing them out in full in most cases I imagine.

sparrowcar · 07-04-2020 8:07am

Elemonator wrote: »

Genuine question, why does everyone in these threads refer to airports by their IATA name? Seems a bit obscure with the amount of airports in the world, nobody is going to know where SEN is. The three commercial pilots I call housemates don’t even go on like that.

So if they are texting or emailing you they type out Southend or London Heathrow instead of SEN or LHR?

Its quicker, this is an aviation forum so anyone in here prob should know the airport abbreviations.

sparrowcar · 07-04-2020 8:09am

Wtf ? wrote: »

Wannabe Pilots, They refer to passengers as pax too !:D

On an aviation forum slagging abbreviations and has a boards name of "wtf"....

Popeleo · 07-04-2020 8:29am

donkey balls wrote: »

At present the only medicine available for patients and their treatment is medical oxygen,My other half lived in China and my best mate goes there twice a year.
Both of them told me that there is no actual western medicine available no pharmacy like we have in the western world.
Everything is more or less Chinese remedy.

Don;t believe everything you hear. There are plenty of pharmacies over there. Most have a mixture of traditional and western medicine, some over-the-counter, some needing prescription. I have bought antibiotics - amoxycillin - without a prescription over there. Language is a big barrier but there are specialist English-speaking pharmacies in some big cities for foreigners.

What they don't have is western-style GPs. Most local docs are traditionally trained and take care of minor stuff. If you are very sick, you just go straight to a hospital or private clinic.

john boye · 07-04-2020 4:32pm

https://newsroom.lufthansagroup.com/english/newsroom/lufthansa-group-decides-on-first-restructuring-package/s/0695cc64-1a64-4939-b409-7da5d5b2c0d3

Lufthansa has announced its first round of retirements. No types being completely wiped out for now.

Blut2 · 07-04-2020 10:56pm

sparrowcar wrote: »

So if they are texting or emailing you they type out Southend or London Heathrow instead of SEN or LHR?

Its quicker, this is an aviation forum so anyone in here prob should know the airport abbreviations.

+1 to this. I mean its one thing if you're referring to small obscure airports in the middle of nowhere, but realistically 99%+ of people on an Aviation forum are going to instantly understand the commonly used ones like LHR, JFK, AMS etc.

Lots of times its also clearer than using a city name would be, like "New York" or "London", where there are multiple airports in the one city.

California Dreamer · 08-04-2020 8:25am

Elemonator wrote: »

The three commercial pilots I call housemates don’t even go on like that.

Yet all my pilot mates will do that, so who to believe?!

Or you could just accept that this is an aviation forum and if you don't like the way some people talk there is always the back button!

;)

Sheep Shagger · 08-04-2020 10:36pm

Luthansa is axing it's Germanwings budget brand, the airline is also in daily discussions with the German government about its ongoing liquidity.

https://www.secretflying.com/posts/lufthansa-shuts-germanwings/

Lufthansa recently flew to/from New Zealand for the first time ever to run repatriation flights.

Inquitus · 09-04-2020 11:19am

Sheep Shagger wrote: »

Luthansa is axing it's Germanwings budget brand, the airline is also in daily discussions with the German government about its ongoing liquidity.

https://www.secretflying.com/posts/lufthansa-shuts-germanwings/

Lufthansa recently flew to/from New Zealand for the first time ever to run repatriation flights.

That doesn't bode well, clearly Lufthansa's future sentiment is highly negative.

IngazZagni · 09-04-2020 12:09pm

Inquitus wrote: »

That doesn't bode well, clearly Lufthansa's future sentiment is highly negative.

I honestly thought Germanwings had already gone and was fully replaced by Eurowings.

I wonder what the purpose of keeping both brands was?

marno21 · 09-04-2020 1:11pm

IngazZagni wrote: »

I honestly thought Germanwings had already gone and was fully replaced by Eurowings.

I wonder what the purpose of keeping both brands was?

Germanwings had been operating purely Eurowings flights under the EW flight code, they hadn't been flying any flights of their own since 2015. Germanwings had simply become a seperate company within Lufthansa Group operating flights for Eurowings.

I'm presuming it had something to do with labour/staff issues that prevented the job pre coronavirus. Now it gave them the option to push the nuclear button.

Noxegon · 09-04-2020 5:53pm

marno21 wrote: »

I'm presuming it had something to do with labour/staff issues that prevented the job pre coronavirus. Now it gave them the option to push the nuclear button.

In all fairness I think they were damaged goods after the crash. If that hadn't happened the brand might have lived on.

Sultan of Bling · 09-04-2020 6:40pm

Noxegon wrote:

In all fairness I think they were damaged goods after the crash. If that hadn't happened the brand might have lived on.

A truly horrific incident.

Elemonator · 09-04-2020 8:40pm

California Dreamer wrote: »

Yet all my pilot mates will do that, so who to believe?!

Or you could just accept that this is an aviation forum and if you don't like the way some people talk there is always the back button! ;)

Like I said, genuine question. I wasn't giving out. Don't be so sensitive.

sparrowcar · 09-04-2020 8:45pm

Elemonator wrote: »

Like I said, genuine question. I wasn't giving out. Don't be so sensitive.

It was this part of your question that seemed petty and unnecessary..

"The three commercial pilots I call housemates don’t even go on like that"

Anyway you have your answer now, no harm done.

tricky D · 10-04-2020 3:25pm

There's a bit more to it....

This forum is frequented by posters with a broad range of experiences, from none to expert, and for many of those with lesser experience the jargon impedes. This has been flagged many times in feedback. One of the properties of jargon is to tend to exclude the non-professionals for good and bad reasons, and that does happen here. Explaining the jargon would help and would be appreciated, but as the forum has technical aspects, jargon stays in the mix and is regarded as somewhat unavoidable.

So: jargon is fine-ish, though it would be nice to sometimes explain, but this is not obligatory.

Cmod: Anyway, this is off topic for this thread.

Sheep Shagger · 11-04-2020 4:31pm

Hong Kong government is injecting cash into Cathay Pacific and some of its smaller regional airlines.

https://www.secretflying.com/posts/hong-kong-airlines-receive-large-cash-injections/

Assume as EU state aid rules have been relaxed the legacy EU state carriers (Air France, Swiss, Lufthansa etc) will start getting bail outs too.