Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Fritzbox

bk wrote: »

They are, they are getting $17 Billion out of the 2 Trillion stimulus package in the US. They are also getting other indirect bailouts via military contracts, long been a controversial method to prop them up.

The helicopter, space and military aircraft divisions of the Airbus group also enjoy large orders from the various European states, paid for by European tax-payer. Eurofighter Typhoon for example.

Tenzor07

Fritzbox wrote: »

The helicopter, space and military aircraft divisions of the Airbus group also enjoy large orders from the various European states, paid for by European tax-payer. Eurofighter Typhoon for example.

In a crisis the only section of the global economy that doesn't suffer is in Defence...

Sheep Shagger

Tenzor07 wrote: »

As for Ryanair, are you serious, O'leary would rather sell the fleet for scrap on the open market than let any government have a controlling stake in it...

Absolutely.

To an earlier point by someone, think they actually have €7bn in cash reserves.

Coil Kilcrea

Sheep Shagger wrote: »

Absolutely.

To an earlier point by someone, think they actually have €7bn in cash reserves.

€3.5bn and a lot of aircraft fully owned.
IAG have €7bn.
And both have credit lines they can draw down as needed.

Sheep Shagger

Stobart, operator of Aer Lingus Regional is seeking creditor protection.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/covid-19-aer-lingus-regional-operator-eyes-court-protection-1.4228950?mode=amp

Sheep Shagger

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/covid-19-aer-lingus-regional-operator-eyes-court-protection-1.4228950?mode=amp

Gael23

Interesting read
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0415/1130539-airlines-coronavirus/

Gael23

Gael23 wrote: »

Interesting read
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0415/1130539-airlines-coronavirus/

Watch prices rise to cover the lost income.

cson

I'd say lease payment accruals are making for grim reading in most of the leasing shops in Dublin right now.

Imagine trying to place Flybe's Dash 8's right now, couldn't imagine a harder sales task.

marno21

Surely when this is all over there's a strong business case for a UK or even UK + Ireland regional airline servicing routes that are clearly viable?

If Flybe wasn't run like a shambles for most of its final years it would likely have survived. The operating costs for the Dash 8s and the ATRs are very helpful in making the UK/Irish regional routes viable, it was the E175 and E195s that were the issue.

A lot would depend on the outcomes for Stobart Air, CityJet and the smaller regional UK airlines (Loganair, Eastern Airways, Blue Islands, Aurigny)

Gael23

Deleted User wrote: »

Watch prices rise to cover the lost income.

Of course, but there is a saturation point o diminishing return to prose increase. A 33% fare hike won’t increase revenue by that amount

donkey balls

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ryanair-sees-quick-airline-recovery-145143208.html?guccounter=1

MoL thinks differently

basill

donkey balls wrote: »

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ryanair-sees-quick-airline-recovery-145143208.html?guccounter=1

MoL thinks differently

Not unsurprisingly he generally does. But remember he is the king of sound bytes. What he says and what he actually ends up doing are quite often two very distinct things. Time will tell whether he is prepared to blow a serious amount of cash and shareholder value in a price gouge to push his competitors to ruin or whether he falls in line with the pack and chases yield.

donkey balls

basill wrote: »

Not unsurprisingly he generally does. But remember he is the king of sound bytes. What he says and what he actually ends up doing are quite often two very distinct things. Time will tell whether he is prepared to blow a serious amount of cash and shareholder value in a price gouge to push his competitors to ruin or whether he falls in line with the pack and chases yield.

It be interesting all right in what they do I just remember from 9/11 how he capitalised on the Boeing order and bragged about how his company raped Boeing in the deal.
I was talking to an old work colleague today and he said would people really rush back in to pubs and places were social distance cannot be obtained ie Aircraft?
This is not going be a sprint to the finish line more so a Marathon, People I know who don't work in transport industry think they be going on holidays mid June.

Tenger

I would agree.
I had flights booked for family holiday in July.
Luckily we hadn't booked accommodation. Mentally we've written off those flights.

This will not be back to a semblance of normal till the end of summer at the earliest. Even then it will be a shell of itself as people try to build back business and recover from the health and economic effects.

Gael23

Serious issues facing Qantas if Australia’s borders are closed long term

Tenger

Gael23 wrote: »

Serious issues facing Qantas if Australia’s borders are closed long term

Serious issues facing every single international airline if the borders of their home nation are shut.



However, the fake story of Oz shutting its borders for 6 months was already debunked.

martinsvi

After 2 years of the best job anyone could dream of, tomorrow I'm scheduled to hand in my uniform and company ipad. TR expires by the end of May with no easy way to renew it with current travel restrictions, which will make my job prospects pretty non-existing in the near future. For all the ex and current and future crews, best of luck, we will need it!

Locker10a

martinsvi wrote: »

After 2 years of the best job anyone could dream of, tomorrow I'm scheduled to hand in my uniform and company ipad. TR expires by the end of May with no easy way to renew it with current travel restrictions, which will make my job prospects pretty non-existing in the near future. For all the ex and current and future crews, best of luck, we will need it!

Very sorry to hear this

Gael23

Tenger wrote: »

Serious issues facing every single international airline if the borders of their home nation are shut.



However, the fake story of Oz shutting its borders for 6 months was already debunked.

You think they wont close for that long?

Tenger

Gael23 wrote: »

You think they wont close for that long?

As Australian officials have stated "entry restrictions will remain in place for as long as the medical experts advise"
Additionally the PM stated that's the ongoing situation "may last 6 months or more".


No nation can put an end date to the current situation as the medical experts are gaining new knowledge all the time.

donkey balls

martinsvi wrote: »

After 2 years of the best job anyone could dream of, tomorrow I'm scheduled to hand in my uniform and company ipad. TR expires by the end of May with no easy way to renew it with current travel restrictions, which will make my job prospects pretty non-existing in the near future. For all the ex and current and future crews, best of luck, we will need it!

Sorry about you're situation hopefully something can be done regarding pilots having to have current time on type rating like extending it, I know of a lad who was flying the the Dash 8 until recently he is back driving artics to make ends meet.
This is without doubt a truly uncertain time I remember the crash of 08 at the time I also lost my full time job, I thought to myself ah sure maybe it be 12 months or so before things picked up.
How wrong was I to think it be a short term it was 4/5 years before things actually picked up in the mean time I reskilled, And got work in the industry I'm still working in today and even our company is starting to feel the pinch.
Hopefully we can all come out the otherside of this unscathed.

Wtf ?

basill wrote: »

Not unsurprisingly he generally does. But remember he is the king of sound bytes. What he says and what he actually ends up doing are quite often two very distinct things. Time will tell whether he is prepared to blow a serious amount of cash and shareholder value in a price gouge to push his competitors to ruin or whether he falls in line with the pack and chases yield.

He has his money made now so he does not care really, Even if the share price falls, He has enough

smurfjed

martinsvi wrote: »

After 2 years of the best job anyone could dream of, tomorrow I'm scheduled to hand in my uniform and company ipad. TR expires by the end of May with no easy way to renew it with current travel restrictions, which will make my job prospects pretty non-existing in the near future. For all the ex and current and future crews, best of luck, we will need it!

Really sorry to hear that, airlines are using waivers to extend ratings, unfortunately I don’t know if these waivers can be utilized by individuals. But it might be worth asking the IAA.

My company has placed all foreign airline pilots on unpaid leave for a six month period starting on May1, and fired all foreign first officers.

smurfjed

He has enough

Is that your opinion or his?

Wtf ?

smurfjed wrote: »

Is that your opinion or his?

Sorry, just mine. When is enough ?

Tenzor07

Sad to hear that the 747 may never fly again after this crisis is over. Maybe just a lot of cargo conversions:

Coronavirus looks to have hastened the demise of the world’s biggest planes, built for long-haul: both the relatively young Airbus A380 and the Boeing 747-400, the original jumbo, were on their way out anyway. Both models were among the first to be grounded this year as demand fell.

German carrier Lufthansa has announced it would be permanently axing half its modern A380s, and retiring a similar number of its 747s early. Charlton thinks it is just the start: “You will never see a 747 flying again, and the only A380s will have Emirates painted on the side.”

dogmatix

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Sad to hear that the 747 may never fly again after this crisis is over. Maybe just a lot of cargo conversions:

While the 747/4 is getting on in years, surely there are still many years of life left in the 747/8 series? According to Wiki there are 47 of the passenger variant in service since 2011. Not a lot, but hopefully it might still be possible to fly on a jumbo for a while yet.

basill

Its clickbait. It will depend on each individual airline. To give one example from roughly 10 years ago. Oil hit a peak so BA parked its old 747s in the desert. 4 engines versus 2 engines just couldn't compete. Roll on 5 years and oil hits a low and the industry is expanding. BA needs airframes to match its expansion plans. Cue 747s pulled out of the desert. They are fully depreciated and owned by BA. Low operating costs compared to trying to get their hands on new 2 engine airframes during an industry boom when lease rates are through the roof. Its all going to depending on the operating metrics within each individual airline as to the future of the 747 in a passenger capacity.

Tenzor07

basill wrote: »

Its clickbait. It will depend on each individual airline. To give one example from roughly 10 years ago. Oil hit a peak so BA parked its old 747s in the desert. 4 engines versus 2 engines just couldn't compete. Roll on 5 years and oil hits a low and the industry is expanding. BA needs airframes to match its expansion plans. Cue 747s pulled out of the desert. They are fully depreciated and owned by BA. Low operating costs compared to trying to get their hands on new 2 engine airframes during an industry boom when lease rates are through the roof. Its all going to depending on the operating metrics within each individual airline as to the future of the 747 in a passenger capacity.

I'm sure that once we're moving out of the current crisis that airlines may look at more efficient higher capacity aircraft, i.e. the 777X