Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

JCX BXC

All airports, Dublin, Cork, Shannon, Knock, Kerry will see horrifically large falls in passenger numbers this year.

This goes without saying. Dublin will naturally have more flights returning than the regional, also simply common sense.

The question really is how long will it take for aviation to return to something towards normality. As I said to a poster on this forum as this was beginning, we cannot say all will soon be back to normal as we don't know. I'm sure eventually numbers will reach what they're at today, however this could be very many years down the line.

Wtf ?

Jack1985 wrote: »

ALL flights are seeing load factors in double digits worldwide.

Double digits start @10%;. Empty so, You could have just said it ! Thanks

cson

Jack1985 wrote: »

ALL flights are seeing load factors in double digits worldwide.

There is no practical (profitable pax service) demand currently due to restrictions.

The EI network, aviation industry in general will be very different post this. EI's focus will be to rebuild DUB ops everything else is secondary including SNN ops.

Single digits I'd imagine you meant?

I know for a fact that AA in JFK & LGA had 786 enplanements total between both airports on April 1st (Wednesday). It's not a big flying day but still, that's pretty insane numbers (or lack thereof).

There's GA lads doing touch and goes at the 3 NYC area airports.

Below are a couple of lads doing it at IAD and BWI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfyCdzW5WqI&feature=youtu.be

Jack1985

I didn’t refer to percentage load factors, you can take it flights are empty and will remain that way until the continent is through the worst of this.

BZ

JCX BXC wrote: »

All airports, Dublin, Cork, Shannon, Knock, Kerry will see horrifically large falls in passenger numbers this year.

This goes without saying. Dublin will naturally have more flights returning than the regional, also simply common sense.

The question really is how long will it take for aviation to return to something towards normality. As I said to a poster on this forum as this was beginning, we cannot say all will soon be back to normal as we don't know. I'm sure eventually numbers will reach what they're at today, however this could be very many years down the line.

Nail on the head here, it's the complete unknown. Hopefully best case we will see a return to near pre-covid pax numbers at all irish airports within 3 to 5 years but that will depend on how long things continue for at the current rate.
Shannon, Cork and Knock are going to struggle but Dublin dream of becoming a hub may well be over too for the next few years. Every airport is going to be fighting for passenger numbers after this and that's not just within the island of Ireland. You are going to see the large airports such as LHR, DUB, CDG, FRA etc fighting to regain hub status for transfer pax.
It's kind of hard to believe that just 2 months ago Irish Aviation was booming and going strength to strength and now we are at a point where we will probably see some long standing players not return to the business when this is all done.

Spanish Eyes

Great thread, and very informative (to a non aviation person like myself).

I love flying, every bit of it, play by the rules and never had an issue apart from the French ATC strikes once or twice.

Anyway, like many others I am wondering about the social distancing issue on planes going forward (until vaccine happens). Taking out the middle seat in cattle class is nowhere near 2 metres is it?

I don't know how it will work, since the chatter from the medical and scientific experts seems to suggest that social distancing will be a feature for a long while yet.

Sorry for those who have or who will lose their jobs in aviation. Hopefully things will pick up again. Best of luck to you all.

ratracer

It’s a pity that SNN had just announced the new EI routes for the summer. I can’t see the Shannon-Barcelona or Shannon-Paris routes even getting a chance now!

BZ

ratracer wrote: »

It’s a pity that SNN had just announced the new EI routes for the summer. I can’t see the Shannon-Barcelona or Shannon-Paris routes even getting a chance now!

Not for the foreseeable future anyway. Will all depend how the public react to air travel after this pandemic decides to foxtrot Oscar.

easypazz

ratracer wrote: »

It’s a pity that SNN had just announced the new EI routes for the summer. I can’t see the Shannon-Barcelona or Shannon-Paris routes even getting a chance now!

Hard to know how the airport will even survive, I guess it will, partly due to all the maintenance and cargo there but Knock and Kerry must be vulnerable.

Nijmegen

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Anyway, like many others I am wondering about the social distancing issue on planes going forward (until vaccine happens). Taking out the middle seat in cattle class is nowhere near 2 metres is it?

I don't know how it will work, since the chatter from the medical and scientific experts seems to suggest that social distancing will be a feature for a long while yet.

It's hard to know how much social distancing will be theatre versus practically useful as they slowly re-open the economy. I'd bet on a lot of "measures" that are, in reality, the acceptable cover for spreading the virus at a rate we can sustain while trying to get economic activity moving. And I'd expect waves of going in and out of restrictions.

This is a really interesting thread on the spread of a Covid-19 cluster in a restaurant setting, tied to the air conditioning. 83 customers overlapping for 53-73 minutes, 10 of whom became infected and the flow of the aircon was a correlated factor.

https://twitter.com/KrutikaKuppalli/status/1247042231275417601?s=20

Sheep Shagger

Air Asia resumes domestic routes from later this month...

https://www.fly4free.com/flight-deals/europe/airasia-announces-resumption-of-operations/

Jaggo

The way the USA is currently handling the CV-19 crisis, it might be that when things clear up in Europe the US remains closed.

There might be very very limited services until the vacine is available.

marno21

South African Airways to lay off all 4,700 staff at the end of the month.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-18/south-african-airways-nears-collapse-with-plan-to-fire-workforce

roadmaster

If smaller airlines like Stobart & cityjet go bust what will aer lingus do on the routes that these airlines service for them with the atrs. Would aer lingus simply get a new contractor to fly the routes or would the take them over themselves?

JohnC.

British government have called in PwC to try to sort out details for a Loganair bailout. Loganair only recently announced they would take over some of the Flybe routes when they died.

LiamaDelta

roadmaster wrote: »

If smaller airlines like Stobart & cityjet go bust what will aer lingus do on the routes that these airlines service for them with the atrs. Would aer lingus simply get a new contractor to fly the routes or would the take them over themselves?

It's most likely the routes/frequencies won't be needed in the medium term. In some ways it will suit them to be able to rationalise without laying off their own staff.

BZ

Virgin Australia going into voluntary administration this evening.

Masala

JohnC. wrote: »

British government have called in PwC to try to sort out details for a Loganair bailout. Loganair only recently announced they would take over some of the Flybe routes when they died.

Is Loganair in trouble???? Any link..

IngazZagni

Masala wrote: »

Is Loganair in trouble???? Any link..

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-ministers-call-in-pwc-for-loganair-funding-talks-11975527

Theyre a very small airline with probably very little cash. I can’t imagine any airline that’s not one of the majors surviving this without Government support/bailouts.

bk

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Anyway, like many others I am wondering about the social distancing issue on planes going forward (until vaccine happens). Taking out the middle seat in cattle class is nowhere near 2 metres is it?

Even 2 meters is more "security theatre". Remember 2m's is only for normal breathing/talking. A cough can go up out to 6 meters and a sneeze out to 8 meters!

Perhaps if they required everyone to wear surgical masks it would allow it to be possible. But I'd say it would require tight enforcement and monitoring.

MJohnston

I wonder how many airlines maintain their HEPA filters? Is it checked by any authority?

Inquitus

Why do they bother operating DUB -ORD/JFK/BOS on a daily basis? Is it for Cargo purposes? EIN123 for instance has just taken off and is heading off on its great circle route.

troyzer

Inquitus wrote: »

Why do they bother operating DUB -ORD/JFK/BOS on a daily basis? Is it for Cargo purposes? EIN123 for instance has just taken off and is heading off on its great circle route.

Slots maybe?

BZ

https://www.airlive.net/breaking-norwegians-pilot-and-cabin-crew-companies-in-sweden-and-denmark-file-for-bankruptcy/

Writing could be on the wall for Norwegian.

California Dreamer

https://m.marketscreener.com/NORWEGIAN-AIR-SHUTTLE-ASA-1413204/news/Norwegian-Air-Shuttle-Four-staffing-units-of-Norwegian-Air-file-for-bankruptcy-30444446/

Not good at all!

Growler!!!

MJohnston wrote: »

I wonder how many airlines maintain their HEPA filters? Is it checked by any authority?

Every airline who has a regular maintenance routine. Generally HEPA filters are changed every C - check and signed off by a licensed engineer whose work can be checked by the relevant authority.

Sheep Shagger

Virgin Australia due to go into administration within the next few hours.

Virgin Atlantic (via Richard Branson) has asked for a £500m loan to tide them over and he will put up his house in the BVI worth £100m as security.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-52354865

WishUWereHere

marno21 wrote: »

South African Airways to lay off all 4,700 staff at the end of the month.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-18/south-african-airways-nears-collapse-with-plan-to-fire-workforce

Having lived in RSA for almost 20 years, I am saddened by this information, though at the same time, not totally unexpected. I would also suspect CV19 was only the 'icing on the cake' here. SAA have been in trouble for a long while - sadly.

Thanks for uploading this Marno.

jonnny68

Just had a browse on the Dublin airport app, only 15 departure flights since 11.35am this morning but what struck me was i see there are 2 flights to Kerry, one departed at 12.12 today and the other is due to depart at 18.55, am i missing something here, why 2 flights to Kerry of all places?

Locker10a

jonnny68 wrote: »

Just had a browse on the Dublin airport app, only 15 departure flights since 11.35am this morning but what struck me was i see there are 2 flights to Kerry, one departed at 12.12 today and the other is due to depart at 18.55, am i missing something here, why 2 flights to Kerry of all places?

Flights to Kerry and Donegal among other domestic airports have been running for like 30 years