Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

L1011

SouthWesterly wrote: »

I just saw reported that virgin Australia has folded with the loss of 16000 jobs.
Might not effect us here but probably one of many to go.

Still legally in Administration I believe? Doesn't mean they'll resume flights at any stage however.

sherology

Elaine762 wrote: »

From an insider source, Aer Lingus staff were today between the lines to expect pay cuts/job losses as they down to 5% operation.
I'd reckon 20% to 60% of Crew/Pilots plus office staff ...

Also MOL from Ryanair warning of 10-20% job losses from winter onwards:

""I think that job reductions by 10-20% in winter are almost inevitable," he said. "Passengers will return, but it will take time." "

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0424/1134588-ryanair-winter-layoffs/

With good synchronization, and calm heads perhaps job sharing could be the recommended approach for the next 12 months. The Irish tax system means you get most of your pay up to €34k, so a couple of flights a week might work? There's no where (other airline) to go if you're let go, so I do hope they can be creative, and keep ticking over, and keep staff on the books. Cancel ALL perks, pension contributions, health care etc. Just keep going, (whatever costs money) and use whatever the government have to offer.

smurfjed

I'd reckon 20% to 60% of Crew/Pilots plus office staff ...

“You reckon”, based on what? What exactly is your experience to qualify you to make sure a statement?

California Dreamer

smurfjed wrote: »

“You reckon”, based on what? What exactly is your experience to qualify you to make sure a statement?

FFS! Don't you know he heard from his best mate's mothers cleaner who works for a company that supplies Air Linguss!!!!!:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Kcormahs

Elaine762 wrote: »

From an insider source, Aer Lingus staff were today between the lines to expect pay cuts/job losses as they down to 5% operation.
I'd reckon 20% to 60% of Crew/Pilots plus office staff ...

Also MOL from Ryanair warning of 10-20% job losses from winter onwards:

""I think that job reductions by 10-20% in winter are almost inevitable," he said. "Passengers will return, but it will take time." "

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0424/1134588-ryanair-winter-layoffs/

Lufthansa is talking about 10000 job losses which represents 7% of the workforce. I would be surprised if Aer Lingus went for such a high number as you say. Even 20%... they a much smaller company (workforce is what? 6000? 5000?) and they already run staff as per minimum required for crew and pilots

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/lufthansa-warns-of-10-000-job-cuts-as-covid-19-bites-1.4237445

California Dreamer

Aer Lingus already have a very low ratio of pilots to places compared to other airlines.

So a 60% cut to pilots would mean huge costs in recruitment and training to return to normal ops when the time comes

Kcormahs

California Dreamer wrote: »

Aer Lingus already have a very low ratio of pilots to places compared to other airlines.

So a 60% cut to pilots would mean huge costs in recruitment and training to return to normal ops when the time comes

What about cabin crew, is there an overplus? I thought they operated all fleet with minimum crew too

Locker10a

Kcormahs wrote: »

What about cabin crew, is there an overplus? I thought they operated all fleet with minimum crew too

Pretty much yes they do, every summer they rely on crew volunteering to work days off during busy season, this allows them to keep crew numbers at the minimum and those who wish to work an extra day for the extra cash can volunteer to do so

Kcormahs

Locker10a wrote: »

Pretty much yes they do, every summer they rely on crew volunteering to work days off during busy season, this allows them to keep crew numbers at the minimum and those who wish to work an extra day for the extra cash can volunteer to do so

I see but that’s on normal times... the way this crisis may end Id imagine EI just like all the others wont keep the same size snd thats where they cut jobs

needhelpguy

Significant redundancies also mooted at daa. Staff already down to 4 day weeks, this seems likely to reduce further before end of summer. 2021 pax forecasts are in the 20-25m range. Down from 33m in 2019. Could be even less as nobody really knows.

Sheep Shagger

Irish Times quoting Lufthansa is losing €1m an hour at the moment ?!?!

MOL has a point re legacy flag carriers getting state bail outs and it not being fair across the board, calls them "crack cocaine addicts unning to their governments whenever they need help".

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/ryanair-may-legally-challenge-eu-state-bailouts-for-national-carriers-1.4237144

Locker10a

Sheep Shagger wrote: »

Irish Times quoting Lufthansa is losing €1m an hour at the moment ?!?!

MOL has a point re legacy flag carriers getting state bail outs and it not being fair across the board, calls them "crack cocaine addicts unning to their governments whenever they need help".

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/ryanair-may-legally-challenge-eu-state-bailouts-for-national-carriers-1.4237144

It will come down to who’s providing strategic routes/ network to the economy. Is Michael going to provide routes and connectivity between Germany and North American? South America? Asia? Africa? If Lufthansa are let die ? I don’t think so.
Lufthansa do, so the government there will want/need them for the future continuation of a prosperous global economy

Sheep Shagger

For anyone interested in buying Virgin Australia, the administrators have out together a sales pitch with 7 reasons why it's a good deal...

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/seven-reasons-to-buy-virgin-deloitte-s-pitch-to-buyers-20200422-p54m3b?&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn:fac-14omn0053-optim-nnn:nonpaid-25/06/2014-social_traffic-all-organicpost-nnn-afr-o&campaign_code=nocode&promote_channel=social_facebook

JCX BXC

Sheep Shagger wrote: »

For anyone interested in buying Virgin Australia, the administrators have out together a sales pitch with 7 reasons why it's a good deal...

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/seven-reasons-to-buy-virgin-deloitte-s-pitch-to-buyers-20200422-p54m3b?&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn:fac-14omn0053-optim-nnn:nonpaid-25/06/2014-social_traffic-all-organicpost-nnn-afr-o&campaign_code=nocode&promote_channel=social_facebook

For those who can't bypass the paywall, the 7 point pitch is as follows:

1. Attractive two player domestic market with proven profitability

2. Strong ongoing demand for domestic air travel (long distances between major cities, limited alternative transport options, tourism destination)

3. Strategically valuable access to routes and slots in the "Golden Triangle", historically one of the most profitable operating jurisdictions globally for air travel

4. Highly cash generative and distinguished Velocity Frequent Flyer loyalty model, in excess of 10 million members and 90 partners

5. Key strategic assets and infrastructure, including aircraft, route network, airport gates/slots, built over 20 years

6. Unique opportunity to 'relaunch' Virgin Australia with a sustainable capital structure post COVID-19

7. Strong support from government, regulators and unions - have all expressed a desire to keep Virgin flying following recapitalisation

cson

Sheep Shagger wrote: »

Irish Times quoting Lufthansa is losing €1m an hour at the moment ?!?!

DL are burning $100m a day (~$4m/hr) hoping to be able to cut that to $55m over the next month or so.

AA has also retired the last of its 757s to the best of my knowledge so that's the PHL-SNN route gone for good I reckon, they don't as of right now have an aircraft suited to that mission, A321XLR expected EIS not til 2023 & MAX return tbd.

I absolutely adore SNN as a gateway to/from NA, so the retrenchment of NA ops is pretty depressing.

Tenger

Im guessing those A321LR slots are rapidly increasing in potential value. whether to sell off or just to get their hands on that aircraft quickly

Gael23

JCX BXC wrote: »

For those who can't bypass the paywall, the 7 point pitch is as follows:

1. Attractive two player domestic market with proven profitability

2. Strong ongoing demand for domestic air travel (long distances between major cities, limited alternative transport options, tourism destination)

3. Strategically valuable access to routes and slots in the "Golden Triangle", historically one of the most profitable operating jurisdictions globally for air travel

4. Highly cash generative and distinguished Velocity Frequent Flyer loyalty model, in excess of 10 million members and 90 partners

5. Key strategic assets and infrastructure, including aircraft, route network, airport gates/slots, built over 20 years

6. Unique opportunity to 'relaunch' Virgin Australia with a sustainable capital structure post COVID-19

7. Strong support from government, regulators and unions - have all expressed a desire to keep Virgin flying following recapitalisation

Any possibility Qantas will buy it just for the landing slots?

Sheep Shagger

Gael23 wrote: »

Any possibility Qantas will buy it just for the landing slots?

Would assume the competition authority in Aus would stop that (in some cases anyway).

Gael23

Sheep Shagger wrote: »

Would assume the competition authority in Aus would stop that (in some cases anyway).

I was thinking about the sort of deal BA done when BMI collapsed

Sheep Shagger

Gael23 wrote: »

I was thinking about the sort of deal BA done when BMI collapsed

Gotcha, a lot less competition in Aus airports than they are in UK/European airports though.

Am sure something will come out of the Virgin collapse, especially given Virgin was created after the Ansett crash. One dominant carrier is never good for anyone.

jd1983

I've been following this thread on and off over the last while. It's very difficult to have any certainty around anything given what's happened over the last 7 weeks. However my gut feeling has been that the consensus on this thread has been quite pessimistic. Earlier today I was reading the following report by WHO:

"Non-pharmaceutical public health measures for mitigating the risk and impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza"

They're suggesting that there's little evidence behind travel restrictions and to just use them as a delay tactic for a limited period of time. With that in mind, I'd hope air travel within the EU would open up by the end of the summer. Domestic routes should open before then. What are people's thoughts on WHO's recommendations?

https://www.who.int/influenza/publications/public_health_measures/publication/en/

Foggy43

jd1983 wrote: »

I've been following this thread on and off over the last while. It's very difficult to have any certainty around anything given what's happened over the last 7 weeks. However my gut feeling has been that the consensus on this thread has been quite pessimistic. Earlier today I was reading the following report by WHO:

"Non-pharmaceutical public health measures for mitigating the risk and impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza"

They're suggesting that there's little evidence behind travel restrictions and to just use them as a delay tactic for a limited period of time. With that in mind, I'd hope air travel within the EU would open up by the end of the summer. Domestic routes should open before then. What are people's thoughts on WHO's recommendations?

https://www.who.int/influenza/publications/public_health_measures/publication/en/

That document is from the WHO Global Infuenza Programme and contributions to it seem to be dated June 26, 2019

jd1983

Foggy43 wrote: »

That document is from the WHO Global Infuenza Programme and contributions to it seem to be dated June 26, 2019

Have they published a more recent report then that? If so can you please share a link as I'd be interested in reading it. TBF a mate who's quite bullish about returning to normal sent me that link.

Gael23

It’s nigh on impossible to operate social distancing in an airport, let alone onboard an aircraft. How do you keep a full load of pax 2m apart in a check in queue and waiting to board and at a baggage claim carousel?

Very dark days ahead for the industry.

easypazz

Gael23 wrote: »

It’s nigh on impossible to operate social distancing in an airport, let alone onboard an aircraft. How do you keep a full load of pax 2m apart in a check in queue and waiting to board and at a baggage claim carousel?

Very dark days ahead for the industry.

Very high quality PPE.

Slows everything down a lot and adds to price of flights.

If dublin airport operated at 25% capacity there is plenty of space.

But 25% means an end to mass travel if replicated everywhere.

trellheim

But 25% means an end to mass travel if replicated everywhere

Back to Ferries for GB

WishUWereHere

Seems like there are a lot of bumps in the runway ahead:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-airbus-boss-says-its-bleeding-cash-and-warns-of-deeper-cuts-11979419

If it's this bad for Airbus, wonder just how much worse it is for Boeing?

Inquitus

Boeing has dropped its plans to buy Embraer.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/boeing-scraps-4-2-billion-embraer-venture-q1-earnings-next

Blut2

Probably good news for Embraer given the current state of affairs in Boeing.

billy few mates

Blut2 wrote: »

Probably good news for Embraer given the current state of affairs in Boeing.

Not so, Embraer are planning to sue Boeing for the collapse of the deal...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-embraer-m-a-boeing/embraer-hits-out-after-boeing-scraps-42-billion-tie-up-idUSKCN2270KN