Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Blut2

billy few mates wrote: »

Not so, Embraer are planning to sue Boeing for the collapse of the deal...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-embraer-m-a-boeing/embraer-hits-out-after-boeing-scraps-42-billion-tie-up-idUSKCN2270KN

Embraer are now suing for wrongful termination in order to make a financial gain. Thats rather separate from their likely benefiting from not being dragged into the current Boeing organizational sinkhole.

AMKC

Blut2 wrote: »

Embraer are now suing for wrongful termination in order to make a financial gain. Thats rather separate from their likely benefiting from not being dragged into the current Boeing organizational sinkhole.

Fair play to them. I hope they win and get a substantial sum from Boeing as the Airline world needs more than just the two currently monopolies of Boeing and Airbus in the industry making planes.

I see today that Airbus are bleeding money at an alarming rate. I ask how because if there factories are all shut down and they are not making or selling planes at the moment should they not just be static on finances too?

ironclaw

AMKC wrote: »

I ask how because if there factories are all shut down and they are not making or selling planes at the moment should they not just be static on finances too?

It's a common misconception that when business is closed that they have no costs and the accounts are stagnant. In the same way that if someone loses their job, they usually have financial obligations like mortgages, rent etc and even more basic ones like food.

The same applies to businesses. There will be a core staff that still need to be paid and that's before you consider loans and debts that are still due and/or accruing interest and penalties.

Wtf ?

AMKC wrote: »

Fair play to them. I hope they win and get a substantial sum from Boeing as the Airline world needs more than just the two currently monopolies of Boeing and Airbus in the industry making planes.

I see today that Airbus are bleeding money at an alarming rate. I ask how because if there factories are all shut down and they are not making or selling planes at the moment should they not just be static on finances too?

They lost their bllox on the failed 380, They sold shag all of them in USA either, The 747 from Boeing is still flying after 40 odd years

L1011

Wtf ? wrote: »

They lost their bllox on the failed 380, They sold shag all of them in USA either, The 747 from Boeing is still flying after 40 odd years

And Boeing are never going to recover the sunk development costs on the 747-8, 787 and quite plausibly 777X and 737max.

If airframe makers were guaranteed success we'd still have more than 3 of them making larger than commuter size airframes.

Wtf ?

L1011 wrote: »

And Boeing are never going to recover the sunk development costs on the 747-8, 787 and quite plausibly 777X and 737max.

If airframe makers were guaranteed success we'd still have more than 3 of them making larger than commuter size airframes.

Is the 787 and forward orders for 777x not healthy enough ? I think the 737max could be the one that sinks them

L1011

Wtf ? wrote: »

Is the 787 and forward orders for 777x not healthy enough ? I think the 737max could be the one that sinks them

787 - they were, just about, going to break even over its entire production life. Was going to be tight. Now though...
777X - god no, the frame hasn't even got a reliable development point - exploded during pressure tests - and orders which were already slim are going to die off

AMKC

ironclaw wrote: »

It's a common misconception that when business is closed that they have no costs and the accounts are stagnant. In the same way that if someone loses their job, they usually have financial obligations like mortgages, rent etc and even more basic ones like food.

The same applies to businesses. There will be a core staff that still need to be paid and that's before you consider loans and debts that are still due and/or accruing interest and penalties.

I get that. I would have thought a big company like Airbus do would have room for negotiation on there loans and dept's do. If Airbus goes bust and I really hope it does not then them companies that they owe money too will more than likely not get there money either. So maybe if them companies that Airbus owe money too reduce the payments that Airbus owe them for now then when things get back to normal in two years they can start to pay them back at the original price.

Wtf ?

Boeing made a mess of their 787 batteries at the start too, They tended to catch fire :rolleyes: Whatever happened to pre product testing before release ? There should be a massive cull of ''experts'' at Boeing. The only planes I feel safe in is the 330 and 737 Ryanair one, 800 or NG I think.

Tenger

Wtf ? wrote: »

.........The only planes I feel safe in is the 330 and 737 Ryanair one, 800 or NG I think.

Might want to be a bit more specific on that judgement.

Aer Lingus operate A330s and A320s (no more B757s)

Ryanair currently operate only B737NGs, the -800 model to be precise.
They have a single -700 model and they have a massive order for the B737MAX-8.

Wtf ?

Tenger wrote: »

Might want to be a bit more specific on that judgement.

Aer Lingus operate A330s and A320s (no more B757s)

Ryanair currently operate only B737NGs, the -800 model to be precise.
They have a single -700 model and they have a massive order for the B737MAX-8.

But I was specific ? I said the A330 and the 737 NG, What did I say wrong ? I never mentioned the 757 ?

cson

Wtf ? wrote: »

They lost their bllox on the failed 380, They sold shag all of them in USA either, The 747 from Boeing is still flying after 40 odd years

A portion of the A380 program cost will be paid for by French and German taxpayers as a result of loans tied to deliveries.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/european-taxpayers-face-hard-landing-from-airbus-a380-s-demise

They sold no A380s to US based purchasers.

Geographically the aircraft only makes sense for the ME3 and arguably Qantas. It's overspecced for pretty much everyone else and that's why you have traditional Airbus supporters like AF/BA/LH winding down their A380 fleets.

Built for a vision of the market that never came to fruition.

billy few mates

Interestingly enough not a single A340 was sold to an American carrier either, like the A380, this was another major factor in its eventual demise. You have to crack the American market for an airliner to be considered a success.

Kcormahs

https://www.google.es/amp/s/elpais.com/economia/2020-04-27/el-gobierno-prepara-ayudas-urgentes-para-iberia.html%3foutputType=amp

Apologies, I could only find the news in the Spanish media.
Spanish government is getting ready to secure a loan and financial help to Iberia because of the Coronavirus impact, in order to level the help Lufthansa is getting from Germany and AF-KLM from French/Dutch governments.
It could be the start of a state aid to IAG

California Dreamer

Wtf ? wrote: »

Boeing made a mess of their 787 batteries at the start too, They tended to catch fire :rolleyes: Whatever happened to pre product testing before release ? There should be a massive cull of ''experts'' at Boeing. The only planes I feel safe in is the 330 and 737 Ryanair one, 800 or NG I think.

Don’t ever take an Air France flight over the Atlantic so!

Fritzbox

It seems Airbus a re taking a hit too, in a big way. Laying off staff in many plants all over Europe. Sales of the A350 and A330neo are no doubt going to be negatively affected just as much as the B787 and B777X will be, no doubt:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/27/airbus-job-cuts-staff-coronavirus-lockdown


Airbus to furlough 3,000 staff in Wales after warning it is 'bleeding cash'

cson

Boeing not going ahead with any NMA competitor to the A321LR/XLR.

Rare to see them concede that market entirely to Airbus, kind of surprised they didn't re engine the 767 for those type of missions.

john boye

cson wrote: »

Boeing not going ahead with any NMA competitor to the A321LR/XLR.

Rare to see them concede that market entirely to Airbus, kind of surprised they didn't re engine the 767 for those type of missions.

I guess they might have concluded that that will now be a much smaller market and it may not be worth the R&D if Airbus already has so much of it sewn up.

sherology

cson wrote: »

Boeing not going ahead with any NMA competitor to the A321LR/XLR.

Rare to see them concede that market entirely to Airbus, kind of surprised they didn't re engine the 767 for those type of missions.

The NMA has become the newest 'sonic cruiser' in Boeing's drib-drab can't make a decision development - and it was 99% not going to happen before covid. They're in a bit of trouble with their product offering, with a too big and yet to be certified 777x, a too 'frankenliner' and reputationally damaged MAX, leaving only it's 787 which cost ~€30billion to develop and has yet to be paid off... It still isn't cost neutral.

The cost of developing a new single aisle will be high, and will cost more than they state (as they always do), and there isn't a huge technology jump available to make it an a321 killer... Plus the time to market will be at least 5 years from launch, and we're nowhere near that... One's gotta wonder where Boeings Going.

Sultan of Bling

California Dreamer wrote:

Don’t ever take an Air France flight over the Atlantic so!

Not an aviation expert, just an interested reader of the forum.

Open to correction by the experts on here but was that accident caused by pilot error as opposed to a mechanical issue.

Caranica

Scenes from OR Tambo today. South African Airways farewell.

https://twitter.com/gail13sa/status/1255057406423371781?s=19

JohnC.

Caranica wrote: »

Scenes from OR Tambo today. South African Airways farewell.

https://twitter.com/gail13sa/status/1255057406423371781?s=19

The video is from 11 months ago

https://roodepoortrecord.co.za/lnn/1016883/watch-saa-videos-are-real-but-date-back-to-20194

Having said that, here's a better angle, because it still looks good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJgQLRwFRxQ

Mc Love

Just saw this video the other - its pretty amazing seeing all the planes congregated here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIbXai0l174

JohnC.

Looks like 12,000 redundancies at BA.

Tenger

JohnC. wrote: »

Looks like 12,000 redundancies at BA.

Just reading that before dinner. Pretty serious.
Wiki say they have 42,000 staff overall.

Could be a move to request state aid so that figure is lessened? "up to 12,000" was the phrase.

Kcormahs

Tenger wrote: »

Just trading that before dinner. Pretty serious.
Wiki say they have 42,000 staff overall.

Could be a move to request state aid so that figure is lessened? "up to 12,000" was the phrase.

BA ceo just said this about state aid in his letter to staff:

‘ There is no Government bailout standing by for BA and we cannot expect the taxpayer to offset salaries indefinitely. Any money we borrow now will only be short-term and will not address the longer-term challenges we will face.’

so dont think they are counting on that

Nijmegen

In terms of bailouts I think you have to try to divorce the bailout that keeps the company in operation versus cuts that still need to occur to hew to the reality that market demand will be smaller not only now but well into the future. People hear bailout and maybe think everyone keeps their job, but not really so. The bailout is to ensure there is some airline left to meet some market demand in future. But the market itself as it was six months ago no longer exists and will not exist for the near term.

AlekSmart

billy few mates wrote: »

Interestingly enough not a single A340 was sold to an American carrier either, like the A380, this was another major factor in its eventual demise. You have to crack the American market for an airliner to be considered a success.

To my eyes there was something just a little 'off' about the 340's styling....the relationship between engine size and fuselage/wing was'nt quite right.....could be my eyes,but it just did'nt 707 it for me

billyhead

Could Aer Lingus cut jobs now and if so would it be last in first out?

Jack1985

billyhead wrote: »

Could Aer Lingus cut jobs now and if so would it be last in first out?

Aer Lingus will be announcing job cuts within the next two weeks. The current rolling situation is not sustanable and airlines can't rely on the governments to support them (which also can't last forever).

It's always last in first out, it'll be on a departmental basis as required.